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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Monday 30 July 2012

The East is Green. Trouble in Terengganu( 2/2)


How is the situation in Terengganu? PR won only 2 seats. In Marang it won during the 2008 elections. PAS won Kuala Terengganu in a by election.
The people of Terengganu have exhibited one peculiar trait. When they decide to swing, they will do an almost complete volte face. That is why in Terengganu unlike other states, we have seen the administration see-sawing between PAS and UMNO.
And this time, it looks PAS will benefit from the notorious Terengganu swing. But this time, PAS better get its house in order and bring the supporting professionals to its side to offer better hope to the people. For too long, the people are caught in a twilight zone of a state being what it is and what it could be. It could have been the richest state but for want of a good government. As to what it is, the people are beset by a sad state of affairs where the state’s wealth has been cornered by the powerful elites.
One man is responsible for the social injustice. Mat Said. The state’s money has been applied to a string of imprudent spending. A zoo costing almost RM100 million, the construction of a new palace whose costs will definitely reach RM 1 billion. Choice lands given to UMNO leaders. Oil Royalty money given by the Federal government on the quiet for fear that neighboring Kelantan will demand the same.
Federal money is sustaining a decadent and wasteful government.
The first thing one notices when entering Terengganu as you enter Kemaman, Terengganu is a land of the giants. Giant posters of Mat Said, the MB in various poses. Kissing babies- Mat Said. Exhorting anything, Mat Said. Seminar and forums on new media- giant posters of Mat Said. TPM’s visit- Mat Said is more visible. Humoring Tun Mahathir by inviting the former PM to talk about his version of Islam- Mat Said stands as equal to Dr Mahathir.
Is this a megalomaniac man or what? Does this explain his equally megalomaniacal projects in the state? Terengganu has been Mat Saidized, as the people are marginalized.
He has built a state zoo costing almost RM 100 million. The purchase of exotic animals and the ensuing feeding of the animals will cost Terengganu a lot of money each year. Money which could be spent more wisely.  Like sponsoring students to study in universities abroad. Here is an MB who sees it more appropriate to feed animals rather than sponsoring a few students who had to come back to Malaysia for want of funds.
The state is full of white elephant projects that give no meaning to the people of Terengganu. The Monsoon Cup project is a symbol of excesses and decadent living. Locals benefit little from the project. Except getting the contract for cleaning the garbage left by the international jet set hobnobbing with Mat Said and the KT elite the previous night. Menatang mu.
Oil was discovered there since the 1970s, yet Terengganu remains one of the poorest states. Just venture on the outskirts of Terengganu, you will see people living in poverty stricken conditions with little improvements in social and public amenities. Or look out of your window at the Grand Continental hotel and feast your eyes on dilapidated houses strew around.
Projects are dished out to party members and business cronies. The new highway traversing the village of Banggol Donas just outside of Kuala Terengganu has been given to an UMNO youth leader. The highway project is creating much dissatisfaction among locals.
This is a state lead by a megalomaniacal MB who has desensitized himself of the needs of Terengganu people.
Other ADUns and MPs wanting to legitimize and elevate their statures will incorporate the image of Mat Said alongside their images. Mat Said is all over the place.
Mat Said got there as a result of the 2008 elections.  The results back then were as the Table below.
SEAT
CURRENT
WINNER
%AGE OF
SUPPORT
TO PR
VOTE SWING
FOR PR IN 2008
BESUT
BN
38.5
(1.35)
SETIU
BN
41.4
0.61
KUALA NERUS
BN
48.0
3.05
KUALA TRENGGANU
PR
52.3
1.49
MARANG
PR
51.5
2.12
HULU TRENGGANU
BN
37.8
(1.84)
DUNGUN
BN
44.6
0.58
KEMAMAN
BN
39.0
3.52
average


1.22





Mat Said got into office because the Sultan of Terengganu wanted nothing to do with a pervious equally megalomaniacal MB. Since then Mat Said has overshadowed the pervious MB in terms of sheer thoroughness to mat Saidize Terengganu.
He has employed one powerful weapon. Do everything that will ingratiate himself to the ruler. What the ruler hasn’t wished of, Mat Said has taken as command.
The effect of all these have created great animosity in the people. Everywhere you go, people are eager to dump Mat Said and UMNO into the political dustbin. My own estimate is that at the very least, there will be a 7% swing to the opposition. If the swing is more than 7%, BN will be left with one parliamentary seat.
Notice Kemaman? Word has it that if Rafizi stands there, Shabery Chik is out.
CONSTITUENCY
3% SWING
7 % SWING

BN
PR
BN
PR
BESUT
1
0
1
0
SETIU
1
0
0
1
KUALA NERUS
0
1
0
1
KUALA TERENGGANU
0
1
0
1
MARANG
0
1
0
1
HULU TERENGGANU
1
0
1
0
DUNGUN
1
0
0
1
KEMAMAN
1
0
0
1
TOTAL
5
3
2
6

11 comments:

Melayu Baru,  30 July 2012 at 17:37  

Assalamualaikum Dato' Sak,

Since you mentioned Mat Said, I'd like to relate a story heard from a friend who lives in Kemaman.

In his zeal to ensure that his people is awarded, he appointed one of his friend, who was formerly an ambulance river to a high position in one of the GLS in Terengganu.

Alluding to his previous occupation, the man's nickname is 'Man Doktor'.

The joke is - people are upset because he is Man Doktor. They wouldnt be so upset if his nickname is Doktor Man...

But jokes aside, you can see the reason why I said earlier that the one that destroys fellow Malays is another Malay.

When Terengganu folks voted PAS as the state government, the first thing that the Malay Muslim led UMNO BN government did was to stop the royalty payment. The reason, in a word of a local UMNO politician - If PAS shows the people of Terengganu that they can manage the royalty better than UMNO, then Terengganu will never back BN.

So, sebab takut hilang kuasa, semua rakyat Terengganu dihukum. A decision from a Malay government, helmed by a "Malay" UMNO president. So thick skinned, he called them 'Wang Ehsan', violating the agreement set in 1974 when the states gave up their petroleum claims to the federal government.

Not only that, in order to appease the UMNO contractors, the royalty money was channeled via wasteful project - such as building school fence at much inflated price.

The did it again in Kelantan, state with the highest Malay percentage.

It is repeated, and the offender never felt any remorse. Please see the paddy farmers during paddy planting season, land distributions, political quotas for cheap house etc. The same pattern is repeated.

Then, in their attempt to cover their tracks they said the Chinese, Indian, communist, JI et cetera as bogeyman. And UMNO as saviour.

Berapa lamalah lagi kita nak kena tipu...sudah sudah lah tu..

Can we, Malays, trust this type of leaders?

Melayu Baru

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 17:41  

Dato',
Dikampong2 disini ramai yg miskin dan anak2 muda yg jadi penagih...kerja tak ada...ADUN masing2 sibuk buat rumah besor dan kumpul harta...cuba selidik mana ada ADUN yang tak bina rumah bernilai paling kurang sejuta ringgit...ambik gambar semua rumah ADUN dan masukkan dlm internet...pasti bungkus BN.

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 17:41  

megalomaniac MB - can he walk on water too?

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 19:36  

Dato'

Terengganu BN leaders are history by the way their Chief is acting. I think even the UMNO people themselves will swing to PR.

Terengganu folks are ruthless when it comes to people they despise.

But what are the offerings by PR. If they are professionals led then PR has a good chance. If 2 x 5 saja...then depends how strong the tsunami is that will hit the rest of Malaysia.

Orang-orang

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 19:43  

Sak, i think it will be equally beneficial if this article is translated into BM. Is there anyone here willing to assist Dato Sak ? Terima Kasih.

OneMalaysian,  30 July 2012 at 19:49  

Dear Sakmongkol

In forecasting it is usual that the forecaster make out 3 basic scenarios: best case, worst case and most likely case. I noticed that in all the forecasts that you have made to-date your worst case is a 3% swing from the 2008 results, and the best case 7% or 10%. But in all cases the swing is to the positive in favour of PR using the 2008 results as the base.

Have you considered a worst-case scenario where the swing is in the NEGATIVE against PR? Why do I ask this? A few things have happened since 2008.

First, there is going to be massive election fraud abetted by a conniving Elections Commission. Voters have been shifted from one constituency to another, and hundreds of thousands of instant Malaysians have been created out of recently arrived Bangladeshis, Burmese and Pakistanis. Second, some people have commented that some Malays have “over punished” UMNO in 2008, and they have this sense of regret like how some parents feel after punishing their child even though that child deserved the punishment. So they want to switch back the vote. Third, Najib has been pouring billions into buying votes, especially to the Felda folks. Fourth, many more new (genuine) voters have been registered since 2008.

We are all outcome (our desired outcome, that is) bias. But PR supporters should never forget the worst-case scenario, lest they get lulled into a sense of complacency.

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 20:30  

Dato,
Its the same thing in Melaka. On every single road, every single village, every single junction you will find the image of the Chief Minister and Najib... banners, bill boards, digital signboards, flags etc.
Seems the CM is the owner of Melaka.He is greater than God here.

bruno,  30 July 2012 at 21:27  

Dato,up to 3 months ago the general elections were still looking like a close race.Now three months later it is beginning to look like getting 1/3 parliamentary seats by Umno/BN to deny the PR 2/3 majority is a big problem.

In many states Umno is beginning to look more like a house of cards.This time around it will not need a tsunami to blow it to kingdom come.The urge for change has never been so great since Dr Lim and his Gerakan took over Penang.Political changes in Malaysia will soon come full cycle again.In other words the cows have decided that after over fourty years it is finally time to come home.

Anonymous,  30 July 2012 at 22:57  

I had a discussion with my PAS hard core supporter friend last month .He said it is very difficult for PAS to take Trengganu unlike Kelantan.Sorry , i have to agree with him.I think that goes to Pahang as well.

Scorpion.

walla 30 July 2012 at 23:53  

Pakatan must all the same take all precautions every day from now on.

The groundswell may well be inclined towards Pakatan now but the situation is still asymmetric because Barisan holds the cards of cash, media, federal institutions and naturalized foreigners votes. Notice these have nothing to do with the wishes and will of the rakyat of Malaysia.

Take the EC observers suggested, for example Asli. This entity started with a mahathir as patron. If its people on GE13 day sees some Barisan mischief, what likelihood they won't look the other way?

Don't let the absence of Bersih 4.0 blunt the need to be vigilant. Nothing has changed. The EC saying they will accept overseas votes means nothing because they cannot operationalize it on time for GE13. It is just to lull.

So WAKE UP and start the strategy now to maintain first mover advantage to pre-qualify GE13 towards a clean and fair election. If lull dulls the mind, they will do a lynas bulldoze on the rakyat. There is a timing factor to everything. Always remember, a serpent is at its most dangerous when cornered.

The other thing is don't ever raise the word huddud again. Each time you do, Barisan will use it against you. Example, trying to split DAP from PAS.
Remember, if race doesn't work, they will use religion, eg hasan ali. Furthermore, East Malaysia has a different religion vote. The term welfare state is more universal, especially when founded on mutual recognition and common principles.

Umno will pull out all stops in the last leg to GE13. It will try to turn a few more, esp. in PKR whose leadership must tread with caution how they can be portrayed by a media they have no recourse to for rebuttals.

In an asymmetric situation, the first thing hooked to the mind will be the last thing remembered before walking into the poll. Watch how Barisan will try to capitalize on that by subterfuging trouble into Pakatan.

Nonetheless, the rakyat are increasingly for Pakatan members (understand why i added the word 'members').

Barisan was knocked out of its presumption in GE12 that voting would be by race. Cross-voting across racial divides shifted the centre of gravity to Pakatan in 2008. It can happen even more in GE13 especially after Bersih 2.0 and 3.0 showed Malaysians of all races coming together for common causes.

Umno's racism (racialism is just semantics) is bad, hypocritical and destructive of this nation. The only Umno leader pretending not to practise it is keris-bathed-in-blood Najib.

Since he used inter-agency cross-trading to shore up FGVH price on taxpayers account, voters can return the compliment by cross-voting for whoever in Pakatan member parties who has best chance to win the seat there and then. Don't bother about race or religion preference. Vote to win.

As for our Eastern states on the peninsular, make that massive swing towards Pakatan and knock out Umno and others from all seats. It is critical to set momentum for a new Malaysia in which these states must play real roles, not see their wealth squandered and plundered by the hypocrites and jackasses of Umno.

Surely no one wants to be droned by another 1Umno soundtrack next year. Except, maybe, those Umno-sponsored commentators with their zero-contents.

bromo,  31 July 2012 at 05:38  

Ganu ade ust. Azhar Idrus.

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