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Sakmongkol ak 47

Sunday 26 October 2014

Leadership and the Malaysian eCONomy- Part 2 of 3

Second Najib is not a man of action. In fact he is more known as the man who does nothing. He has taken up Musa Hitam’s elegant silence to a ridiculous level.
If one particular strategy has failed or show indications of failure, he doesn’t act to change course.  Isn’t that the message contained in Blue Ocean Strategy which the PM is very fond of quoting?
A man of action changes course if after analysing the situation, the original course chosen is faulty. We all know where the money invested in 1MDB will end up, but he doesn’t stop the rot. The sovereign fund is around RM36billion in debt and when the figures for 2014 are revealed; most likely the debt has shot over RM40billon. 
The fund is bleeding Malaysia; one because of the handling charges. Two, because of the secrecy surrounding the application of the fund and the narrowness to which the fund is applied.  It has gone into the energy sector ( buying up used IPPs) and real property.
Already the coupon rates are higher than the market rates offered on dividends- we need to know whether this spread is taken up by some people. Why are we paying above market rates?
We know what is happening to FGV when even the current share price has never overshot the initial price offering, yet Najib doesn’t reverse course by making changes.
He knows enriching Malays through rent seeking isn’t the answer to address Malay economic issues; he does not act to correct it.
Our country is like a runaway freight train. There is no one to steer it. PM Najib has been a big disappointment. He is no leader. He has been long on slogans but short in substance. He has, as the title of a book written by Milton Friedman says-issued bright promises, but has produced dismal performance.
The system of government is out of control. The country’s finances are frightening. Public debt has definitely overshot the 55% of GDP debt ceiling if we also and must include all the contingent liabilities which the government gave out but hides from us. 
Once again, for example what is so secretive and sacrosanct about the debt accumulated by 1MDB in the offshore accounts? The people managing our money have extraordinary brain power than the rest of us that their identities must be shielded from us? That’s RM36billion of taxpayer’s money in 1MDB that can get incinerated if the secretive investments and applications go bust.
Public debt service is very high. Public debt is also tied to our ability to pay. It’s paid from revenues collected by the government. If this country’s earnings are reduced, how are we going to pay off his debt?
Najib can eloquently say in parliament we have a moral duty not to bequeath succeeding generations with debt, but his government has shown the most ravenous appetite for accumulating public debt.
This government has the knack to introduce supplementary budgets in the ensuing financial year making a mockery for the fine detailing on the principal budget presented on each Friday in the selected parliamentary session.
Household debt is about 80% of the GDP. We have young people unable to get decent paying jobs they dream of, and the dreams massaged by unconscionable promises by the government and for-profit learning institutions, finding themselves saddled with debts. They can be insolvent at the age of 25.
What about the social cohesiveness of this country? The weak PM allows hate groups and other bigots to challenge the harmony of this country. He allows people like Ibrahim Ali and those from Malay hate groups to destroy the social glue that has bound us- and the social glue needs reinforcing always, not weakened. He should have acted harshly on people like Ibrahim Ali throwing them into jail.
If a Chinese were to do the same like Ibrahim does, apply the same laws on him or her.
This shows how weak and intellectually porous our PM is. Nothing seems to stay in his mind. He can learn from all over the world, the best practices in managing a modern state, but he hasn’t done so.  Whatever problems this country faces, they must have been sorted out in some countries very efficiently. But he is too deep in his worthless blue ocean strategy as though reading and talking about it, is a panacea for all the ills in this country.  He is mentally lazy.
Lets amplify his flavor of the month playing around with the so called Islamic agenda. If I were him, I will ignore the way Islamic countries are managed (doing so does not mean he is not a Muslim). No country governed by Muslims in modern history has achieved anything of significance. Pakistan- they have nuclear bombs but they kill one another on the flimsiest of excuses. Saudi Arabia- they treat women like sex slaves but when they go to other countries they behave like heathens of Jahiliyah era.
Indeed most of the counties ruled by Muslims are economically backward, corrupt, decadent, dictatorial, repressive and oppressive. Why is it difficult for any sensible fellow to come to the conclusion, that the way Islamic countries are managed should be dismissed.


Friday 24 October 2014

Leadership and the Malaysian eCONomy-part 1

I hope not everyone-and I further hope, not the majority of us are mesmerised by Najb’s PR gimmicks. His presentation of the yearly budget is fast becoming a yearly singsong. He is repeating some same stuff over and over again.

The more important issues like income distribution, the worsening level of education, the deterioration of domestic and external security, the scourge of corruption were hardly mentioned. He took time to sound silly by prodding the opposition. His budget speech is one boring rendition of some economists extended essay.

We saw the video clip of Najib being elbowed by Rosmah during Jokowi’s inauguration. If that is true, this country is doomed.  The clip however looked suspicious.

He is now compared to president Jokowi of Indonesia and is seen as inadequate. That’s humbling to us Malaysians. Jokowi was a furniture trader. Najib is a scion of an aristocratic family, the product of British education, yet pales in comparison with wak Jokowi?

There you are- all this time one compares him with the milieu composed of pedestrian village folks, or people coming from less privileged family background who are crude in mannerisms, less cosmopolitan- he on the other hand coming from a pedigreed background; that alone made him appear ‘special’. But once he is compared among equals, not linked to the same cultural background, the real Najib stands out. Ineffectual, intellectually less rigorous, muddled thinker.

While Indonesia is adopting openness and meritocracy and more democracy, Malaysia is reversing. Malaysia is introverted, becoming more tight-fisted, and petty. The main reason for this reversal is the weak leadership of Najib. He is assertive on the wrong things and not on the fundamentals of nation building. He is expansive on the petty things and not on the factors that really contribute to the nation‘s advancement.

In 2009, he became the PM with pomp and splendour liked by any member of the aristocracy and bourgeoisie.  He declared all the acronymic initiatives- a series of marketing gimmicks to inform the public that he is serous about transforming this nation. He also declared the age of big brother government is over.

After 5 years, the country has not transformed into what the various acronyms promised. The country is divided along racial, religious, and social lines; the security of this country breached so many times. We have millions of foreign paid security workers guarding our housing estates and commercial premises; the economy has grown at non extraordinary rates, public debt has risen, household debt has grown to astronomical levels, religious bigotry and pettiness are on the rise. What has Najib done?


Just what are the things crucial to nation building? I would say things like having leadership, the rule of law, security of the nation both domestically and externally, social cohesiveness, economic governance, education and skilling the people, income distribution, adoption of live and let live attitude.

Leadership deficit slackens the country.

What is it that Najib lacks first? He is not a thoughtful person. Now when I say being thoughtful it means being intellectually rigorous. Najib is only slightly better than his cousin Hishamudin upstairs there. The only leader thus far displaying that trait is that ’evil dictator’ Mahathir. We can say all the evil things about him, but lack of intelligence and wide knowledge isn’t one of them.

Perhaps that is a reflection of a less intellectually rigorous youthful life. He doesn’t have the quality of mind that differentiates him from the rest of his cabinet members. We all suspect that many of his speeches written in books were not his and ask him to expand on the ideas he will look askance. The slack in youthful life that could have been corrected and compensated by rigorous education has finally shown itself in the present day Najib.

So? So he can’t grasp the bigger picture of nation building which requires more democracy where it is needed, order when it is appropriately required, corruption free civil service, the absence of which has created a group of government-rich coterie. Ever wonder how some ex high civil servants after retirement can own houses costing RM7-8 million?

Some tough measures are needed to tackle things like open defiance of the supremacy of the nation’s laws. For example when JAKIM people refused order from our civil laws which stemmed from the supreme laws of this nation, Najib should have these people arrested. Not doing so, has created uncertainty over the laws of this nation. This is not an Islamic state- I am sorry to say this to my Muslim brothers in Malaysia.

We don’t need an Islamic Constitution say the objectors- the institution of Islamic principles, is in in the hearts. Well, good- then that is the more reason why we don’t need an oversight organisation that makes a mockery of the constitution of Malaysia. Islam rules by gentle persuasion- acceptance by way of conviction is more lasting than acceptance by force.


Tuesday 21 October 2014

Pengurusan eCONomy yang membebal dan membebankan.

Pengalaman saya dengan orang UMNO yang berkuasa ini ialah mereka rasa mereka melakukan perkara2 yang menyebelahi kepentingan rakyat. Tapi sebenarnya sebaliknya yang berlaku.

Kepentingan yang mereka perjuangkan ialah kepentingan kelompok2 tertentu dan ianya adalah untuk kepentingan mereka sendiri untuk berfikiran demikian. Dengan berfikiran demikian sahaja, dapatlah mereka mensahihkan perlakuan mereka. Hitam jadi putih, salah jadi betul, tidak adil jadi adil.

Inilah punca minda kerajaan tahu yang terbaik untuk kamu. Walaupun PM Najib jerit sana sini mengistiharkan zaman kerajaan lebih tahu yang terbaik untuk kamu sudah berakhir, sebetulnya sebaliknya yang berlaku.  Kita tahu Najib kaki kelentong.

Kerajaan bernafsu buas untuk mengekang kepentingan rakyat.  Semua protes yang legitimate dianggap sebagai hasutan menjatuhkan kerajaan. UMNO tidak sedar bahawa kerajaan yang meraka ada hanya disokong oleh 47% pengundi dalam PRU13. Dikawasan saya, yang dapat 47%, calun MCA tewas.

PTPTN di gambarkan sebagai suatu yang baik. Orang kampong yang berpendapatan rendah menerima gambaran tersebut. Mereka sokong dan ada yang sanggup berdemonstrasi menyokong PTPTN. Banyak sangat kah wang orang Melayu?  Mengapa kita biarkan diri kita diperbodohkan? Tidak kesian kita pada anak2 kita?

 40% golongan bawahan mempunyai pendapatan isi rumah purata sebanyak RM1600. Itu angka purata. Menerima kesahihan angka ini samalah seperti kita menerima jumlah saiz purata sebuah keluarga ialah 3.5 orang. Pernah sesiapa melihat 0.5 orang?

Yang mempunyai pendapatan tidak lebih RM1000 sebulan berjuta jumlah mereka. Sebab itu ada 7 juta rakyat Malaysia layak mendapat BR1M. jumlah yang layak saya rasa sepatutnya 11 juta orang.

 Tapi mereka tidak fikir bahawa anak2 mereka, ramai yang jadi graduan tapi tidak mendapat kerja yang diimpikan, akan berhutang dan mungkin akan bengkrap. Kitaran membengkrapkan akan berulang. Yang tak dapat kerja memerlukan proses memahirkan diri lagi, masuk pusat latihan, kena bayar lagi, kena ambil PTPTN. Hutang bertambah.

Kita membiarkan kebaradaan jenerasi yang berhutang dan kita lupa bahawa ini angkara durjana sebuah kerajaan yang korap dan rasuah dan menyalah guna kuasa.

Kerajaan mengeksploitasi mimpi ibu bapa dan impian anak muda. Wahai anak muda- dalam PRU14 nanti ada 7 juta jumlah kamu- tendang keluar kerajaan bangsawan yang ada sekarang, kembalikan kuasa rakyat. Sokong kemunculan kerajaan yang baru.

Dahulu apabila saman AES dikenalkan, ada kelompok Melayu yang sanggup berdemonstrasi mempertahankan pengenaan saman AES sedangkan orang Melayu yang memiiki kereta bukan semua kaya. Kereta adalah suatu keperluan sekarang. Tapi mereka mempertahankan kenaan saman tersebut yang mengayakan syarikat yang membuat cadangan. hari ini kita tahu, kamera tak seberapa yang dipasang tapi kerajaan bayar RM700 juta dan kena bayar ganti pula kerena memberhentikan projek curi wang rakyat tersebut.

Kegilaan tambah berleluasa. Tidak salah mencadangkan memilhara ikan sturgeon dalam hutan Jerantut walaupun ianya akan menyebabkan balak RM60-70 juta akan disapu habis. Bagaimana pemegang kuasa dalam negeri saya Pahang boleh menjustifikasikan projek ini yang dari segi common sense, akan gagal dari mula lagi. Hutan dan bukit akan gondol.

Sabsidi minyak dibayar oleh kerajaan bukanlah suatu perkara yang menakjubkan. Tapi tiap kali dalam parlimen, sahabat saya Ahmad Maslan, AP Pontian akan ungkit2 perkara ini.

Ini bukti kerajaan perihatin dan pro rakyat. Banyak ni, kata nya.

Kerajaan pulang kepada kita RM40,000 juta setahun. Ini jumlah yang besar. Jika pendapatan negara ialah sebanyal RM1.3 trillion jumlah sabsidi ialah 3% dari KDNK. Tapi banyak mana kita serahkan kepada kerajaan tahun demi tahun? 10 tahun kebelakang ini, kita serah kepada kerajaan 230,000 juta. Kita beri kerajaan hampir 6 kali ganda daripada apa yang kerajaan beri kepada kita dalam bentuk sabsidi. Jadi, apa yang hendak di ungkit? 40,000 juta sebahagian kecil dari 230,000 juta.

Dalam parlimen kita bukan datang untuk berceramah. Bajet ialah pembentangan keluar masuk wang. Semua perbelanjaan yang kerajaan cadang untuk 2015 datang dari rakyat. Kerajaan BN mesti bersyukur kerana rakyat membayar cukai yang menjadi hasil kerajaan. Yang patut bersyukur lebih ialah kerajaan bukan rakyat.

Sabsidi minyak naik dari RM1.65 billion dalam tahun 2002 kepada RM23 billion tahun 2013. Kenapa? Tidak ada misteri dan tidak perlu disorakkan. Jawapan nya sudah diberi- jumlah kereta bertambah. Orang pun bertambah. Jadi penggunaan petrol, disel dan gas pun bertambah. Apa yang ek sangat hendak dislogankan bayaran sabsidi petrol dan gas?

Ramai yang mengguna kreta dan kenderaaan. Kerana itu, maka penggunaan petrol, disel pun bertambah. Orang yang menggunakan gas pun bertambah. Jadi sabsidi bertambah.

Jika kenderaan awam baik dan mantap mungkin penggunaan kenderaaan peribadi berkurang. Jika petrol naik, dan kerajaan meliberalkan import kreta, kereta yang efisen minyak akan ditambah.  Jika harga kreta murah, kenaikan petrol tidak dirasa teruk sangat.

Penyokong UMNO gembira bila dengar Ahmad Maslan mengulangi kenyataan bahawa kerajaan ini baik hati- setiap tahun belanja RM40 billion untuk sabsidi. Macam2 ada. Sabsidi minyak, dan LPG sahaja RM21billion. mana nak cari kerajaan sebaik hati? Sampai naik loya tekak kita mendengar ulang tayang cerita lama ini.

Semua orang kena bersyukur sebab mana ada kerajaan yang belanja sebanyak itu untuk rakyat. Rakyat atau kerajaan yang patut bersyukur?

Yelah- orang UMNO yang kurang cerdik semua angguk ya seolah2 wang tersebut UMNO yang punya. Atau kerajaan yang dikuasai UMNO yang punya. Fakta nya ialah,, kerajaan tidak ada wang. Wang yang ia ada semua datang dari hasil cukai dan hasil bukan cukai yang di kutip dari rakyat semua. Yang mereka belanja itu, dalam bahasa yang mudah, bukan bapak mereka yang punya.

Tujuan sabsidi ialah mengurangkan harga sesuatu barang supaya meringankan beban rakyat. kerajaan belanja RM20-21 billion setiap tahun keatas sabsidi RON95, disel dan LPG. Juga untuk mengurangkan harga meringankan beban rakyat yang sussah.

Soalaan: adakah membantu rakyat susah menjadi susah kepada kerajaan? Kalau rasa susah sangat, undur biar Pakatan Rakyat ambil alih dan tunjukkan bagaimana kita boleh urus ekonomi negara dengan lebih baik.

Setiap tahun kita rakyat menyerahkan RM230-240 billion kepada kerajaan apa macam? Bagaimana duit kita kerajaan belanjakan? Jika dari 230 blllion itu dikembalikan kepada rakyat dalam bentuk sabsidi sebanyak RM40 billion , apa yang hendak dibising dan diungiktkan. Betul jumlah sabsidi itu banyak tapi kenapa ianya jadi demikian?

Itulah sebabnya saya katakan dalam sebuah artikel- keberadaan sabsidi ini menyembunyikan kegagalan kerajaan BN untuk memikirkan dan melaksanakan dasar2 ekonomi yang mengurangkan sabsidi  tersebut. Jika terlalu banyak sabsidi bererti kerajaan gagal memikirkan dan menjalankan dasar2 yang membaiki keadaan ekonomi. Jika pengurusan ekonomi baik, sabsidi boleh dikurangkan.

Sabsidi tidak sama dengan pemberian wang kepada mereka yang tidak berdaya, tua, sakit dan yang memerlukan bantuan kebajikan masyarakat. Ini pemberian yang mana2 kerajaan yang perihatin sediakan untuk sebahagan mereka yang benar2 tidak terdaya.


Saturday 18 October 2014

The People eCONomy- where has the RM13.8 billion gone to?

With some ammendments.

Where is the RM13.8 billion previously collected by SST gone to? It hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s in the system. The government officers better buck up. What was previously collected under SST is now collected under GST. We haven't lost anything that was collected under SST previously. 
The point here is this: the government thinks by doing this kind of maths, people will think the GST as being less severe- look here people, after we implement GST, we only make a nett gain of RM600 over million. That's a pittance. So don't fault GST. Its not a money making machine for the government. 
That is precisely my point. Its a better money making machine. That is the reason we will implement GST next May. Because its a more effective tax collecting mechanism. 
The RM13.8billion is not an spending item- it’s a revenue item. We don’t now take money to pay the RM13.8 billion out. We collect it under GST.  Think revenue, think GST. 

Who does the reasoning behind the maths for FM Najib? 

This isn’t a case of denigrating the hard working government officers who toiled day and night for several weeks so that the FM can have his so many minutes of fame.  This is case of misleading argument.

A few days ago, questions were raised about basic maths. Some points were raised about the mathematics of GST. The estimated proceeds from GST is RM23.2 billion. This is easily understood. But the government says, we have to deduct RM3.8 billion because, some goods taxable under GST are exempted. That too can be understood. The net value of the proceeds under GST will be RM19.4 billion.

From now, the argument gets murkier. The amount that was to be collected under SST would have been RM13.8 billion. We lost this amount say the government planners and says the clueless FM.

No, we don’t lose any money. We do not take RM13.8 billion from our revenue and pay it to somewhere else. The money is there.

The government says we have to deduct this- minus 13.8 billion; we are left with RM5.6 billion.  Then we used the GST proceeds to pay off BR1M totaling RM4.9 billion.  So we have the net gain from GST of RM690 million.

The government must take us for fools. Whoever did the reasoning behind the maths should be sacked immediately confirming my personal view that those who entered government service are intellectual gnomes. We don’t lose the 13.8 billion anywhere. It’s still there.

Let us warn the government, don’t steal this RM13.8 billion.

Hello- the tax revenue not collected by SST is now collected by GST. We don’t lose anything. We still collect that RM13.8 billion not collected by SST but now collected by GST. We still have RM13.8 billion.

We still have the RM19.4 billion after deducting the GST-free items. From here we pay the BR1M of almost RM5 billion, we have RM14 over billion.

So again is not a case of denigrating civil servants when we point out this fallacy. The RM13.8 billion is still in the system. The government is not taking RM13.8 billion and paying out somewhere.


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