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Sakmongkol ak 47

Wednesday 29 May 2013

Yes, let us demystify the majority popular votes

Here are some interesting figures.
Political parties, votes, vote distribution
No of seats
Source: SPR

We have been told that UMNO has 3.2 million members. So how come it got only 3.2 million votes? Assuming all its members voted for their glorious party, then UMNO’s votes came from its own members. It can’t speak on behalf of the Malaysian people. It can’t even speak on behalf of the 7.8 million Malays who voted on the 5th May 2013 election.
So where did the Perkasa guy get his figures when he declared that the UMNO government should be thankful to the Malays for voting in UMNO and keeping it in power. 4.6 million Malays chose not to vote for UMNO. Unless 4.6million is smaller than 3.2million.
We don't want to erase UMNO. UMNO can remain as it is- irrelevant and attracting the crass, crude and myopic leaders and adherents. The rest of the Malay race want to move forward. They only want to do so without UMNO.  

BN vs PR and vote distribution
Source SPR

BN has more than 7 million members. It got only 5.24 million votes. 2 million BN members did not vote for BN. BN can’t even speak for the Malaysian people.
It is clear PR got more popular votes but that success is negated by gerrymandering and the uneven distribution of voters per seat. PR has to contest in bigger populated areas which could accommodate more parliamentary and state seats. UMNO and BN represent seats which have less voice than the seats represented by PR. 1 seat contested by PR is equivalent to 2 seats won by BN.
But let us take on the Perkasa man on his declaration of Malay support to UMNO. UMNO got 3.2 million votes. While its candidates were all Malays, its voters were not. How many non-Malay voters voted for UMNO candidates on that 5th of May? Let’s assume only 15%. That means 85% of the 3.2 million or 2.75 million voters who crossed X on the ballot papers were Malays. So, the non-Malays who voted for UMNO candidates amounted to nothing and instead were branded ingrates. So next time, don't vote for UMNO.
How many Malay voters came out to vote? 7.8million. what does this mean? It means 5 million Malays did not vote UMNO on the 5th of May.
How much did Najib spend on BR1Ms? He spent RM2 billion on BR1M 2012. For 2013, he spent another RM3.5billion. He spent a total of RM5. 5billion on 11 million recipients. Out of the 11 million, 4 million were previous recipients.
In the first year he gave RM500 each to 4 million people. In the 2nd year, he gave RM500 each to 3 million new recipients. The number of people who received BR1M over a period of 2 years was 7 million.
Despite paying off 7million people, BN secured 3.2 million votes. How many of those who got RM500 each voted for BN?
Assuming 90% of the recipients were Malays, then there were 6.3 million Malay BR1M recipients. How many Malay votes did UMNO get? 3.2 million votes. 3 million Malay BR1M recipients did not vote UMNO who gave them RM500 each.
Why? Because they know the government got the money from the withdrawn subsidies totalling RM20billion. If the government gave out RM5.5billion, where is the rest of the RM14.5billion?
Is UMNO planning to use this RM14.5 billion to give loans to its cronies and surrogate businesses?


Tuesday 28 May 2013

Saving our Country

UMNO’s affairs are no longer my business. It becomes my business if UMNO unashamedly continue to behave as though it’s the only choice Malays have. Malays now have a choice. The Malays in Raub do not have problems with me being a DAP MP- what they see is just an MP with whom they can relate to, speak and seek service from. This is a welcome change- people can actually judge you in terms of what you can do instead of judging you on the basis of who inherited a particular status.
UMNO with its ingrained behaviour of living off past accomplishments and latching on to its origins will have no relevance as people adopt achievement norms instead of acscriptive or pre-assigned norms. I hope the people of Kedah will soon discover the uselessness of succumbing to the imputed abilities of the son of Mahathir.
Accordingly I don’t agree when Tun Daim says that Najib should be given a second chance. Why? Because he is willing to play ball to Dr Mahathir? He managed to get only 133 parliamentary seats despite spending billions, setting aside only a small portion of the RM20billion savings in withdrawn subsidies in the form of BR1Ms and other income transfers. Where is the balance 14 billion or so?  To pay off jump-able MPs?
Najib got 133 seats despite bill boarding across the country’s highways where people vomit at the sight of the condescending billboards. Despite also declaring so many economic initiatives. People are not buying Najib’s craps anymore. Otherwise, he would have gotten 5 million Malay votes.
Pak Lah got 140 seats. The UMNO warlords were not willing to be forgiving and wanted him to go. Najib of course committed political non-feasance by standing idly by, encouraging others to kick out Pak Lah. He was of course the direct beneficiary if Pak Lah was ousted. UMNO can continue choosing him but I will encourage Malays to reject him.
After 55 years, the Malays still live in hovels. The PM brags about building 1 million affordable homes. Let’s see he does it. In Raub, the UMNO leaders divide business interests among themselves. They are bloody thieves! Some go after timber concessions. Some went after federal land, developing the land with the so called ‘despicable Chinese’ and building shop lots and houses costing a few hundred thousand Ringgit. The average Malay can’t even build a RM35,000 Ringgit house.
After 2 days of being elected, I was summoned to investigate a collapsed bridge or a near collapsing bridge in Kg Jelu in Ulu Dong. The village headman refused to entertain the affected persons telling them to go to your new elected MP. Normally that’s the job of the local ADUN but since his ignoramus ketua kampong doesn’t know his role as ketua kampong, I was happy to oblige. This is the kind of ketua kampong I quarrelled with when I was UMNO ADUN. Dato Najib came to Raub on the 4th of May and asked the Raub people not to vote for me because he said when I was ADUN I quarrelled with Ketua Kampungs, Penghulu and Ketua Cawangan UMNO.
Now i can say why i was dropped. Najib listened to the bitching Ketua Kampungs and Ketua Cawangans. Yes, I quarrelled with a particular kind that Najib keeps. The kind who thinks he is headman for UMNO members only not the whole village. The kind who allocates felcra shares among brothers, sisters, family members, grandfathers, grandmothers. The kind that charges the makcik some money for running some errands at the Pejabat Daerah. This kind of bad hats and corrupt people, Najib keeps close around him.
That was why even when I was ADUN I proposed the idea of replacing ketua kampungs with government employees serving as say pegawai pembangunan kampong reporting to a pegawai pembangunan mukim replacing the penghulu. The village headman should have minimum qualifications such as diploma instead of being drafted from the ranks of the riff-raffs and layabouts in the Kampung. How do you manage and develop a kampong where the Malays live if your ketua kampungs are mentally challenged and have learning disabilities? By the way, the Ketua Kampungs are all UMNO surrogates.
I also went to investigate some houses that were affected by the heavy torrential downpour that occurred in Raub. It had rained heavily for a few days. I will upload the pictures when I am able to,  to show to readers that after 55 years, Malays live in hovels.
I had to attend to some complainants saying they can’t afford hospital operations. After 55 years, Malays are the first to suffer whenever there are calamities.
The Malays have been short-changed all these years but constantly being fed with a diet of bigotry and prejudices, fears and suspicions.
So I am surprised to read that a leader of Perkasa saying the government should be thankful for the Malays for keeping them in power. Where does he get his figures from? Isn’t he aware that more Malays did not vote UMNO than voting for the party?


Monday 27 May 2013

Najib's violation of any agreement is expected.

The revelation by Yusuf Kalla one time deputy president of Indonesia, has produced not a few rushed judgements. For those who have in-built prejudices against Anwar will recall that Anwar is such and such a fellow. Most of these perceptions were formed a long time ago and some formed after one or two encounters.
I have met Anwar only once in person and that was last year when he was already entrenched in the role as opposition leader. I wasn’t interested to form a personalised perception of Anwar preferring to judge and assess him on his thinking, ideas and articulation. His darker side if it exists is none of my concern. I am never a fan of Anwar but am no Anwar hater either, but as I have said if more people believed in him that those who don’t, there is nothing anyone can do about it. As it is, more people like Anwar than Najib and that is why PR got 51% of the popular votes. That translates into nearly 500,000 human beings rejecting Najib.
 As I have also said before, in the context of sexual dalliances, the person he is compared with is just as heroic as he is. That, if we believe all those insinuations about Anwar are true. If they were, then they were equally true about poster boy Najib.
Did such an agreement exist? If it does, then it’s incumbent upon Yusuf Kalla to produce the agreement that he has brokered. And reveal to us, what is it that Anwar reneged on. Was Anwar’s agreement insured against Najib’s promise not to cheat in the GE?
That is a more serious matter we should be looking into. We haven’t gone before that courts and tribunals or what  and those who have no inkling about the mechanics on voting on the ground other than dragging one’s own fat carcass to the voting station and marking x on your preferred spot, pontificating to us. stop lecturing us and demanding where’s the proof. It’s not too for Khairy the thoroughbred asked to pull the milk cart,  to say there isn’t any shred of evidence to proof fraud and cheating in the elections. We bring it before the courts and let the impartial courts decide on it. Do a smudge and a slightly blotted paper render the vote spoilt when during the first round it was accepted? The recount if it was done- was it done by collating the figures off the Form 14s? Was the recount done by opening up all the boxes at the counting stations? I didn’t hear of counting done at any of the pusat pengistiharan undi.
So what was the basis of Anwar’s failure to honour the so called agreement between him and Najib?
Why is it that it’s easy for us to rush judgment on Anwar on the basis of our personalised perceptions of him. Why not wait until details of such agreement are revealed.
What about Najib? I can easily come up with a laundry list on why we can’t even trust this hypocrite. I am as qualified to give a personalised perception of Najib just like those who have had fleeting associations with Anwar can.
So let’s see details of the agreement. Let’s not hear what Yusuf Kalla has to say. Let’s hear what both Najib and Anwar have to say about their so called agreement. Did Najib promise Anwar than BN will not cheat? Such a promise, if it comes out from Najib is like believing a camel and go through a needle hole.


Sunday 26 May 2013

Operasi Selamatkan Ajibgor

Tindakan yang diambil oleh kerajaan Najib bertujuan menyelamatkan dirinya.  Ini termasuklah (1) Mencari gaduh dengan bangsa lain terutama nya dengan bangsa Cina, (2)  menakutkan tokoh pembangkang dengan penangkapan dan menggunakan polis- semua ini mesti dilihat dalam konteks menyelamatkan Najib yang lembik dan tidak tegas.
Tidak ada perkara baru yang dikatakan oleh Zahid Hamidi bila dia kata polis akan bertindak bebas dari gangguan ahli politik. Sepatutnya itulah cara nya sejak dahulu lagi. Biarkan penjawat awam melakukan kerja mereka. Zahid cakap macamlah kita budak2 bodoh. Kalau Zahid cakap kepada budak kecik dan orang buta huruf, tak mengapalah. Zahid lupa bahawa tahap pemikiran kita pun sama seperti tahap pemikiran Zahid yang ada PhD itu.
Semua penangkapan orang politik mesti mendapat perakuan dari menteri dalam negeri. Kedua, Zahid tidak sebut bahawa polis hanya boleh bertindak mengikut peruntukan undang undang. Polis pun tak boleh buat ikut suka hati. Ini bukan dunia ke3 dimana polis guna kayu cotar membelasah rakyat sendiri. Dalam negara ini, kita bertindak mengukut peruntukan undang2. Tidak perlu Zahid berceramah dan bersyarah kepada kita, apa polis boleh dan tidak boleh buat.
Tidak syak lagi langkah2 kejantanan Najib  adalah bayangan strateji yang dirancang oleh bilik perang Najib. Imej Najib mesti diselamatkan dari tanggapan Najib seorang yang lembik dan tidak tegas. Imej Najib mesti diselamatkan dari tanggapan Najib kurang bersemangat Melayu.Ajib Gor mesti diselamatkan.
Yakni, Najib mesti dikekalkan sebagai presiden UMNO dengan cara apa pun. Jika tidak, masa depan pendukung utama bilik perang Najib seperti JJ dan Alies Nor akan muram dan gelap. Bukan itu sahaja, masa depan semua yang bergantung kepada Najib akan muram.
Oleh yang demikian, Najib mesti di gambarkan sebagai Melayu lebih dari Melayu lain dan kerajaan Najib melalui macai Najib seperti Zahid Hamidi mesti kelihatan sebagai kerajaan yang tegas dan yang bukan main main.
Langkah pertama ialah menyalahkan orang Cina kerana prestasi UMNO yang tidak baik. Memang benar, UMNO menambah kerusi parlimen nya, tapi gagal meningkatkan sokongan orang Melayu kepada parti tersebut. UMNO berjaya mendapat 88 kerusi. Tapi kerusi itu semua kecil2 belaka hasil dari persempadanan yang menguntungkan UMNO.  Dalam PRU13 ini, UMNO mendapat sekitar 3.0 juta undi dari orang Melayu. 3 juta untuk 88 kerusi. Erti dalam satu kerusi, jumlah pengundi Melayu secara purata hanya 34,000 orang.
PKR dan PAS antara mereka mendapat 3.88 juta undi Melayu. Mereka mendapat 51 kerusi. Bererti dalam suatu kawasan, jumlah pengundi Melayu untuk gabungan PAS dan PKR secara purata ialah 76 ribu orang Melayu.
UMNO menambah banyak kerusi kerana kawasan mereka kecil. PAS dan PKR mendapat sokongan yang lebih besar daripada orang Melayu berbanding UMNO.
 Apa jadi? Ahli UMNO sahaja jumlah mereka 3.2 juta. Adakah UMNO hanya mendapat undi dari ahli mereka sahaja? Jika ya- maka UMNO mewakili ahli nya sahaja dan bukan rakyat Melayu.
Orang UMNO mesti membaca menembusi kelentong Najib. Najib mesti disalahkan kerana pencapaian terburuk UMNO. Sebab dia janji semua dibawah langit. BR1M pertama RM2 billion. BR1M kedua dia belanja RM3.5 billion. Dalam masa 2 tahun Najib memBR1Mkan rakyat dengan RM5.5billion. berapa ramai penerima BR1M? tahun pertama operasi, seramai 4 juta orang. Tambahan RM1.5billion pada tahun ke2 BR1M beroperasi, bererti pertambahan seramai 3 juta penerima BR1M baru. Jumlah penerima BR1M selama 2 tahun beroperasi ialah 7 juta orang.
Najib rasuah 7juta orang, tapi hanya dapat 3 juta undi orang Melayu? Sedangkan kita tahu 95% penerima BR1M ialah orang Melayu yakni sekitar 6.65 juta. Makna nya, walaupun dirasuah sebanyak RM500 seorang, Najib tidak berjaya mendapat sokongan orang Melayu.
Itu dari sudt BR1M. jika UMNO hanya dapat 3.0 juta undi Melayu, berapa ramai orang Melayu yang tidak mengundi UMNO dan berapa ramai yang mengundi PR. Antara PKR dan PAS mereka mendapat 3.88 juta undi. Jika 80% pengundi mereka ialah orang Melayu, PAS dan PKR mendapat 3.1 juta pengundi Melayu. Ini berti gabungan PKR dan PAS mendapat seramai atau lebih pengundi Melayu seperti UMNO.
DAP mendapat 1.74 juta undi. Katalah dari angka tersebut, 10% atau 170,000 pengundi adalah orang Melayu. Ertinya, PR secara keseluruhan mendapat 3.28 juta pengundi Melayu.
Keputusan nya: UMNO=3.0 juta pengundi Melayu; PR= 3.28 juta pengundi Melayu.
Walaupun belanja berbilion, walaupun berpropaganda siang dan malam, walaupun berjuta placards I love PM diedarkan, Najib gagal. Jadi berhentilah Najib dari memekik dan memekak 1Malaysia dan Transformasi Malaysia. Berhentilah dari berlakun kerana PRU13 sudah tamat dan Najib gagal.


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