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Sakmongkol ak 47

Thursday 28 April 2011

Government business

The PM announced a slew of projects. He said these are part of the great ETP. My first reaction is since when does the PM of Malaysia become the chief spokesman for corporate Malaysia? Whether private companies have their business plans announced by the PM or not, they will still expand their business. It's also disturbing to know that the PM is repeating some EPP that were already announced before.
So, if the business plans of private companies are all owned and belonged to private companies, is it necessary to have them announced by the PM? The answer is no. Each year Shell for example has new investments. Each year their people in various departments submit capex expenditures and what not. They do that as a matter of factly and business like without demanding they be announced with much fanfare. It carries them out unannounced thus far. Itsshareholders will come to know of these business plans whether are announced or otherwise  in official newsletters or published annual reports.
Even if the PM announces them, it doesn't add any substantial value other than placing the business plans in high profile mode. They government doesn't have a hand in the business plans of private companies. They don't spend a single sen.
I am more interested if the government announces its plans over the spheres they control directly. People are interested to know of the future of the general price levels. They want to know whether government will do anything that will increase the price of RON 95 petrol. Very soon people will be making noises on the frequent increase in RON 97 petrol. It's as though, you keep RON 95 down by upping up the price of RON 97. Then, the price of RON 95 is kept artificially low as a matter of expedience. Very soon doing so will be seen as market unfriendly.
Whereas the PM has been talking about market friendly approaches. The NEM for example is said to be the NEP with market friendly approaches. Well, in the case of managing the price of petroleum, this administration's approach is market unfriendly.
I am also puzzled as to why government departments want to pay TRicubes 50 sen per e mail. You mean to say, despite the millions of investments in IT infrastructure and training, the people manning the IT facilities in government departments cannot hook up to g mail and yahoo? Does it cost that much to send e mails directly through g mail and yahoo?
This emergence of Tricubes and its business plan is very suspicious. Suddenly those trained in computer abilities in government departments appear to have lost their skills overnight. They now want to farm out the sending of e mails to a company known as Tricubes. The public will be asking why?
Of course its voluntary you say. But the government is paying on our behalf for a service that can be gotten free. This simply means creating an artificial business plan to justify spending public money.


Wednesday 27 April 2011

The Internet as Propaganda tool

The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt were helped by the information produced on the internet. Bloggers wrote about the abysmal conditions in the two countries. People took to the streets and confronted the government calling it to account for itself. In the end, the two authoritarian regimes- or the governments that have been dishing out the 'smack of a firm government' in the 2 countries fell.

What happened in the 2 countries before the revolutions? As in many authoritarian regimes they have a long and successful history of control over information and communication technologies. The conventional media means- newspapers, TV and radio represent the old school means of information control and behavior forming means. Investigative reportage was selective.

Nowadays, governments all over have to contend with a more contemporary means of information and communication- the internet.

Future wars will be fought over the minds of people in cyberspace. I am saying, despite the promises of the government, there will be continued attempts at corralling netizens. I don't think those who post their opinions and thinking on the net fear government challenge if they come in the form of reasoned arguments. What they fear is when the government finds itself inadequate to deal with the 'bloggers on the other side', they resort to coercive measures.

In what form do challenges to the state emerge from Internet? They come from several areas: the mass public, civil society, the economy, and the international community. Realizing this, governments respond to these challenges with a variety of reactive measures. These included restricting Internet access, filtering content, monitoring online behavior, or even prohibiting Internet use entirely.

In addition, some governments seek to extend central control through proactive strategies, guiding the development of the medium to promote their own interests and priorities. The recent respectable sounding meeting of Asean bloggers may be likened to a proactive measure by the Malaysian government. Further respectability is secured by the attendance of a much loved former PM who is regarded as responsible for bringing Malaysia into the internet age and the current PM. The current PM promised freedom of the internet.

Can a matter-of- factly spoken comment such as I do not fear the internet be an admission of openness? Well, the way to hell is often paved with good intentions. It would be foolhardy for any government to not try to control the internet. Even a disarming reverse psychological olive-branched approach is already a means to control. It is sufficient to rally some groups to a cause.

Why would any government want to control internet usage? They want and do because competing thoughts can challenge their longevity. If they can't do it the hard way such as direct banning and restriction (which they can't anyway), they will do it the soft way. I must admit, there is nothing wrong with such an approach. Netizens according themselves the freedom of speech and writing on the internet must also accord the same privilege to the government. They do what they must to defend their positions. Netizens do what they must to offer either support or rejection of official policies.

How does usage of the internet affect how governments conduct their business? In order to know of the impact, we need to ask the following questions. Who is using the Internet, and for what purposes? What challenges to the state are likely to arise from this use, and how will the state respond? And finally, is the state proactively guiding the development of the Internet so that the medium serves state interests? In a study undertaken by some scholars, the following should be instructive.

Mass public. Taking an example of what took place in Eastern Europe, public access to ICTs may facilitate a "demonstration effect," whereby exposure to outside ideas or images of transitions in other countries spurs a revolution of rising expectations and the eventual overthrow of the authoritarian regime. Alternatively, use of e–mail, Internet chat rooms, bulletin boards, and the World Wide Web may contribute to "ideational pluralism" and a more gradual liberalization of the public sphere in authoritarian countries.

Civil society organizations. Civil society organizations (CSOs) may use the Internet to support their activities in a variety of ways, including logistical organization and the public dissemination of information. In many cases CSOs play a crucial role in undermining authoritarian regimes, either by pressing for an initial political opening or by triggering scandals that delegitimize authoritarian rule. Likewise, CSOs may rise up to overwhelm a controlled process of top–down liberalization after an initial opening has been permitted.

Economy. Internet use in the economic sphere may pose multiple challenges to authoritarian rule. The Internet may present significant opportunities for entrepreneurship in a developing economy, possibly leading to the emergence of new domestic business elite. In addition, if the Internet contributes to economic growth, more generally it may facilitate the growth of a middle class. Both of these forces may place increasing demands on the regime that that challenge its control of society .

International community. The coercive efforts of foreign governments and multilateral institutions, through such measures as the imposition of sanctions and extension of conditional loans and aid, are frequently an influential factor in democratization. Transnational advocacy networks of CSOs, social movements, the media, and other actors outside of the target country often play a key role in mounting campaigns for such decisive action, and use of the Internet is often crucial to the success of their activities.

States also seek to exert control over the Internet in another fashion; they do so proactively by guiding Internet development and usage to promote their own interests and priorities. proactive strategies attempt to develop an Internet that is free from such challenges while also consolidating or extending state authority. These strategies may involve efforts to distribute propaganda on the Internet, both domestically and internationally; build state–controlled national Intranets that serve as a substitute for the global Internet; implement e–government services that increase citizen satisfaction with the government; and, even strengthen state power on an international scale by engaging in information warfare, such as hacking into Web sites and spreading viruses.

Perhaps the hooray for our side boys may want to look at One Malaysia E mail from another perspective?


Monday 25 April 2011

Is Tricubes a Trojan Horse?

Users will initially be able to use this account to receive government notices such as income tax assessment, driving license renewal and quit rent reminders as well as Employee Provident Fund statements and notices of summons. This is not an exhaustive list of services and more can potentially be offered to users in the future.

The above is an answer given by the CEO of Tricubes, Khairun Mokhtar. Tricubes has been appointed by the Malaysian government as the e mail domain host. Hence instead of say xx@yahoo or xx@gmail, you will have Something like that.

The former two e mails, you get them for free. With myemail , you will pay through the government. Tricubes gets a concession to be the email host for some amount. The CEO says, the government will pay 50 sen per e mail. The government says, this is a private sector initiative. It doesn't pay anything.

One of these people is lying. Since its impossible for the PM to do so, then Khairun Mokhtar is the liar. But then the CEO of an ETP approved company can't be a liar.

Let's just say, Tricubes is the project delivery partner to the government. It's easier that way rather than getting embroiled in semantics.

What does it deliver? It delivers a possible means where the government can control a communication tool, reaching the subscriber directly and discreetly.

Others have said abundantly about Tricubes getting this concession. It says it was selected by an ETP selection team and possibly because the ETP people think, Tricubes has all the qualifications, it has been selected.

People have disputed the selection criteria. TRicubes is a loss making company, the result caused by the nature of the investments it undertakes- so it says. It's dependent on getting government projects such as exclusive licenses for a number of years.

So, if people are interested to read about the technicalities of the TRicubes issue such as financial and technical capabilities and so forth, I am sure there is a vast volume of literature on this.

As for me, I am more intrigued at the prospects of the government big-brothering us, through assessing our e mails. Although Tricubes says it will have security features and encryption features and what not, what if Tricubes acts in concert with government departments by sending unsolicited 'information' over the net, surreptitiously to the e mail addressee? You get for free other than information about summonses, income tax, quit rent reminders etc.?

Sometime in April , 2010, an important person in the CPC, Wang Chen, outlined China's vision on internet usage. Wang Chen is regarded as the highest government official responsible for managing online information in China. He is also the Party's top official in charge of external propaganda work.

Wang delivered a speech laying out what seemed to be the official strategic vision for the "scientific, healthy, and orderly development of the Internet". The speech contains what amounts to an official battle plan, complete with outlines of the risks, campaign objectives, command structure, and legislative reform agenda, for how to bring the Internet under control while accelerating its development.

Wang's report also stresses the value of the Internet as a crucial propaganda tool for guiding correct public opinion, "unifying thinking," and countering "the hegemony of Western media." As long as our country's Internet is linked to the global Internet, there will be channels and means for all sorts of harmful foreign information to appear on our domestic Internet. As long as our Internet is open to the public, there will be channels and means for netizens to express all sorts of speech on the Internet.

In other words, the Chinese authorities view the most intrinsic values and role of the Internet—as a vehicle for the unprecedented spread of information and knowledge across national boundaries and a mechanism that can bring people together and promote diversity and openness—as dangers to be strategically tackled and managed.

A former PM of Malaysia who is credited to have ICTied Malaysia has said, the government will never censor the internet. The current PM repeats the same promise. But the government is wary of the potential of the internet being used as the communications tool for netizens and eventually the people, inducing them to act in some ways detrimental to the government. Despite these promises then, we cannot discount the government big-brothering us is some creative internet-compliant ways.

And so, here in Malaysia, we are debating how come a little known company has been appointed and awarded the Goebbelsment's contract to provide an e mail address for Malaysian citizens.

Already, the government has started on the wrong foot. Whether a person chooses to use an e mail as a communication tool, it is a private voluntary decision. The government has no right to authorize others to get his/her name as an e mail addressee even if it is government who pays for the service. Everyone can get an e mail address for free. So why should the government use taxpayer's money to have a company provide an e mail address?

The only way Tricubes can get the names of people is for them to get people's name through the registration department or some other government departments which are custodian of records. On whose authority will Tricubes get these names? They will get them without OUR approval.

The purpose is nothing else but a disguised attempt by the government to dominate the cyberspace. Its future depends on control of cyberspace. Just like in China, it is widely believed that the Internet poses an insurmountable threat to a government's rule.

But it is not insurmountable after all. Tricubes can help for example.

All over the world, governments are finding ways to control and counter the political impact of Internet use. And they have found some disingenuous ways to do that. Such as using a Trojan Horse.

Tricubes can be the gift the Greeks left behind.


Sunday 24 April 2011

Memahami RPK

Memahami RPK.
  1. The whole objective of this exercise was to block Najib Tun Razak from taking over as Prime Minister. If Abdullah Ahmad Badawi can be forced to resign, and if Najib can be blocked from taking over, then Tengku Razaleigh could become the next prime minister.
  2. Earlier, a meeting was held in Tengku Razaleigh's office. About 30 people attended the meeting cum buka puasa. A few Umno bloggers such as Big Dog and so on were there. PKR people like Adlan Benan Omar and Rafizi Ramli also came. And many others whom you will know if I mention their names also attended (I will leave it to them whether they want to surface, but they know who I am talking about).
  3. The purpose of this meeting was to explore how it can be engineered so that Tengku Razaleigh can take over as prime minister. Bul, of course, was the 'main speaker' with all the ideas on how this can be achieved.
  4. Today, Bul declares that he is a strong Najib supporter and that he has always supported Najib from way back. Suddenly he is no longer the man who was scheming on how to block Najib from taking over so that his boss, Tengku Razaleigh, can be the new prime minister.
  5. Bul, who promised me that he will make sure I will never go to jail and that the military intelligence report would surface the instant the police come for me, today, tells me that the report no longer exists.
  6. The question is, did the report even exist in the first place? And Din Merican, who spoke to Anwar and who assured me that Lt Kol Azmi is very reliable and John Pang, who spoke to Tengku Razaleigh on the same matter and gave that same assurance, have washed their hands of this whole matter.
  7. I can understand Din leaving PKR to go back to the other side. He did tell everyone he is disillusioned with the party and he is not the first or the last. John Pang, however, is now with CIMB Jakarta and we all know who owns CIMB. Suddenly, everyone who was part of the conspiracy to block Najib from taking over is a strong Najib supporter from way back in time.
Kita sebenanya tidak tahu maksud RPK. Lagi pun temu ramah yang di siarkan hanya sedutan sana sini. Hanya sekarang, pihak polis nampak nya melakukan tindakan yang tepat. Iaitu tanya RPK apa sebenarnya dalam kandungan SD atau akuan bersumpah dia.
Dalam temu bual tersebut bersama TV3, saya harap kita faham bahawa RPK mengaku mendapat maklumat dari seorang Lt Kolonel. Maklumat itu adalah mengenai suatu lapuran oleh perisik tentera yang mengaitkan nature of involvement oleh 3 orang dalam pengeboman seorang wanita Mongolia.
Bagaimana seorang anak Raja Bugis yang gagah perkasa boleh di sintuk limau dengan begitu mudah?
RPK kata dia didorong oleh NIk Azmi atau Bul yang merupakan seorang operative Tengku Razaliegh Hamzah. Mengikut RPK yang tidak mudah di takuti atau di pengaruhi oleh sesiapa, Bul Berjaya memujuk RPK membuat suatu AB. Sebab Bul kata seoang lt colonel ada suatu secret report yang kata 3 orang ada di tempat semasa wanita Mongolia di bunuh.
Disini saya dan ramai orang terpinga pinga. Bagaimana seorang yang teliti seperti RPK boleh membuat suatu AB berdasarkan suatu pengakuan bahawa- nun jauh di sana, di di lembah danau nan hijau, ujud satu lapuran sulit oleh seorang Lt Colonel Azmi yang melapurkan pembabitan beberapa orang dalam pembunuhan wanita Mongolia.
Point nya, RPK mestilah meyakini inti cerita yang di sampikan dan menyakini pula keujudan lapuran sulit tersebut, to a sufficient degree untuk berani buat suatu lapuran SD.
RPK berani buat demikian hanya apabila beberapa orang memperakui bahawa Lt Kolonel Azmi adalah seorang yang boleh di percayai. Dari mana RPK dapat personal assessment tersebut? Oh, dia tanya Tengku Razaleigh melalui John Pang dan tanya Anwar Ibrahim. Apa yang RPK tanya?
Jika RPK tanya saya, saya kenal Aspan Alias, tentu saya kata saya kenal. Jika dia tanya saya, boleh kok kito percayo si Aspan Alias, ni, den akan kato den pecayo kek dio. Berdasarkan perakuan saya, RPK kemudian proceed to make a decision, itu cerita lain.
Untuk apa SD itu mahu di gunakan, bukan isiu pokok. Isiu pokok ialah dakwaan pertuduhan pembabitan beberapa orang dalam pembunuhan wanita Mongolia. Kita sepatutnya focus kepada isiu membersihkan nama baik 3 makhluk yang di namakan dalam SD RPK tersebut. Go after the lt colonel.
Mana mana maklumat, cerita karut atau apa pun, akan di gunakan untuk tujuan politik. Demikian juga, dakwaan mengenai pembabitan Anwar Ibrahim dalam skendel seks di jadikan modal politik. Maka jika isi cerita SD dan cerita ujudnya suatu lapuran sulit oleh perisik tentera boleh di jadikan modal politik, maka ianya akan di gunakan. Dalam hal ini, kita terima lah at face value, yang Bul mahu jadikan SD dan lapuran tentera sebagai modal untuk menyekat Najib dari jadi PM.
Jika pun benar, yang hendak di hiruk pikukkan apa dia? UMNO sudah lali dengan menggunakan bahan longkangan untuk menjatuhkan orang lain. Jika Bul menjadikan SD dan lapuran sebagai modal politik, itu kena kita lihat sebagai usaha seorang anak buah yang berkerja dengan bos dia. Ramai orang yang saya tahu menggunakan pelbagai cara kotor untuk melajukan perjalanan Najib jadi PM , tapi itu sebahagian dari political game yang sebati dengan UMNO. Dan jadi budaya UMNO. Apa hendak kita bisingkan.
Akan tetapi, untuk link Tengku Razaliegh Hamzah dengan usaha yang di lakukan oleh Bul , adalah perkara yang lain. Tengku Razlaiegh Hamzah tidak akan sekali kali menggunakan taktik yang kotor untuk menjatuhkan lawan atau orang lain.
Hiw sure am I about this? Sebab menggunakan cara ini berlawanan dengan peribadi keseluruhan Tengku Razaliegh. Tidak ada dalam pengakuan RPK yang menyatakan bahawa Tengku Razaliegh menyuruh menggunakan SD dan lapuran tentera yang di katakan ujud tersebut. Yang di nayatakan oleh RPK ialah- Tengku Razaliegh mengesahkan dia mengenali Lt Kolonel Azmi. Kalau kita kenal, kita kenal lah. Yang nak kata tidak kenal , jika sebenarnya kita kenal tentu tidak sopan. Demikian juga bila RPK tanya Anwar Ibrahim sama ada dia kenal pegawai tentera tersebut, kalau dia kenal, dia akan kata kenal. Jadi? Mengaku kenal kepada Lt Kolonel ini suatu jinayah? Seluruh warga tentera yang mengenali Lt KOlonel ini bagaimana? Dia orang pun penjinayah.
Kita tidak tahu apa yang di cakapkan dalam perbincangan sebelum buka puasa di rumah Tengku Razaliegh Hamzah. Maybe, Bul bercakap ini general terms. Tapi setahu saya, RPK tidak ada dalam perbincangan tersebut. Maka apa yang dia kata adalah conjectures dan telahan nya sahaja. Jika ada seperti yang diI dakwa oleh RPK, tentulah cerita ini telah di tulis berulang kali oleh pemblog UMNO yang ada nak buka psua dengan dengan Tengku Razaleigh pada hari itu. Jika ada sebesar zarrah pun komplisiti Tengku Razaleigh, dia akan lama di bahan dan di balun oleh pemblog UMNO. Malah, pemilihan nya sebagai pengarah pilihanraya DUN Galas dahulu akan di tentang habis habisan.
Fakta nya, dalam perbinacangan tersebut, tidak ada pun nama Najib disebut. Bahkkan pertemuan tersebut di mintak oleh pemblog UMNO untuk mengadu betapa dasyat nya pentadbiran Abdulah Badawi. Nama DS Najib tidak perna timbul.
Yang di bincangkan ialah apa nak buat menegenai pemimpinan Pak Lah. Bloggers UMNO memnta Nik Bul mengaturkan pertemuan dengan Tengku Razaleigh supaya mereka dapat mengadu kepada anak Raja itu. Yang hendak di luahkan ialah bagaimana buruk nya pimpinan Pak Lah.
The purpose of this meeting was to explore how it can be engineered so that Tengku Razaleigh can take over as prime minister. Bul, of course, was the 'main speaker' with all the ideas on how this can be achieved.
Jika matlamat perjumpaan tersebut adakah di atas, perkara ini sudah lama di tulis dalam blog blog laskar maya UMNO. Ini hanyalah telahan RPK.


Saturday 23 April 2011

Measuring RPK

Sometime ago, someone said, 70% of what RPK said are lies, not true. 70% of what RPK says cannot be believed. In other words, RPK is a phony and a charlatan with a beret. Now a beret and a pair of Harry Potter spectacles.
Now, it seems even a morsel of truth depends on whether RPK says so. Why should UMNO people believe what RPK says if we know that 70% of whatever he says is auta?
So when RPK says that he did not say Najib was this and that, why should be believe him? He may be lying or that portion of his statement, gleaned from an interview he made when? we don't know, does not fall within the 70% crap portion?
Umno people should be the first to dismiss RPK. The probability of what he says about Najib, despite Najib's eagerness to feel relieved that finally the truth is out, to be NOT true is higher that it being true. In any case, the truth of anything shouldn't be made dependent on what RPK says. The truth is still out there , Mulder.
Why should UMNO lend credence to RPK?
It follows then, that what RPK says about the plan about Tengku Razaleigh being complicit in some imaginary plot to block Najib becoming PM , has a higher probability of NOT being true.
How did RPK arrive at that conclusion? He alluded to a meeting of some 30 bloggers at Tengku Razaliegh's house some time ago. RPK WASN'T at the first meet. I use the term meet, because the meet was proposed by a number of bloggers, UMNO bloggers mostly.
Some people wanted to meet up with Tengku Razaliegh and the latter consented to the request. As to why Tenglu Razaliegh agreed to play host can be attributed to a variety of reasons, none of which run afoul of the law. A politician would like to patronize a group of luminaries that could prove to be advantageous in future. There's nothing sinister about that.
At the first meeting, the main and only agenda was to discuss about what to do with Pak Lah. It wasn't at all about Najib. We know some of prime movers behind the 30 blogers who wanted to meet up. They actually wanted some legitimacy for their own agenda to kick out Pak Lah. Actually they wanted to borrow the credibility of Ku Li. They want to stab another with a borrowed knife!
If UMNO people really want to get the truth of who wants to block out Najib, then they should ask those people who went over to Ku Li's house trying him to persuade Ku LI to stand as UMNO president and Muhyidin as deputy president. Those who supported the idea included a former much adored PM and his faithful man Friday of a former senior minister.
At that time, everyone was convinced that Najib was a spineless leader and made no mention of him being in the scheme of things.
Actually, it was a ruse by these people, to goad Najib into coming out to dump Pak Lah. We all know, after that Najib came out to say he is willing to assume leadership. Of course he said he was willing after much groundwork by a diverse set of operatives have gone around making it impossible for Pak Lah to do anything but to say, Uncle I quit.
So why should we succumb to RPK's invitation to us to believe this cooked up story. UMNO leaders do all kinds of political infanticide that make this allegation by RPK a walk through the park. It's a non-issue.
RPK may have his own personal reasons for dragging in Ku Li. And UMNO people should not dismiss their own thinking that Ku LIi is way past his prime to be of any serious threat to Najib. Look elsewhere for the source of threat people.
As to the growing chasm between RPK and his onetime MCKK colleague, the colorful Anwar Ibrahim, he has his own personal reasons. Maybe because Anwar didn't want to support his MCLM. Maybe Anwar didn't lend a helping hand at all to a man on the run. Maybe its 1001 reasons for RPK to say what he is now saying about Anwar. Or maybe he now believes Anwar is the culprit behind all those sex scandals.
But even these, we find hard to attach any credibility without dismissing our own beliefs that RPK is a charlatan. 70% of his being, that is.


Thursday 21 April 2011

Taib Mahmud, UMNO , Tengku Razaleigh dan isiu2 lain.

Saya hairan bagaimana artikel saya mengenai analisa undian keatas PBB dikatakan sebagai pujian. Saya telah menunjukkan suatu jadual/table mengenai keputusan undian PBB.
Saya tidak berminat untuk menunjukan keadaan di mana keadaan tidak banyak berubah atau pada ketika ketika undi PBB merosot dan undi kepada PKR bertambah. Penyokong PKR boleh lah berbuat demikian.
Fakta nya, secara keseluruhan, majority PBB meningkat. Kedua, PBB menambahkan majoriti dalam 23 kawasan dari 35 yang di tandingi nya.
Baca sekali lagi- ianya bukan pujian. Sebaliknya ia nya suatu peringatan kepada UMNO bahawa ia tidak dapat mengawal keadaan di masa hadapan. Bagaimana mungkin? UMNO sendiri tidak boleh menghasilkan keputusan yang demikian. 
Undi orang Melayu kepada calun UMNO merosot- bahkan jumlah orang Melayu yang tidak mengundi UMNO samaada melalui tidak keluar mengundi atau mengundi parti bukan UMNO, lebih besar. Daripada 5.7 juta undi Melayu, calun UMNO dalam tahun 2008 hanya mendapat sekitar 2.39 juta undi . 2.39 juta termasuk undian dari orang bukan Melayu.
Yang bersorak meriah menyambut kemenangan PBB dan sekutu nya dalam PR Sarawak tidak membantu memenangkan UMNO dalam waktu jangka panjang. Mereka sebenarnya meraikan sokongan UMNO kepada perkara perkara yang tidak di sukai oleh jenerasi rakyat hari ini- korapsi, pencabulan kuasa, monopoli kuasa oleh elit dan lain lain. Cabaran agar kita menghasilkan bukti tidak mengurangkan kesahihan mendesak perubahan. Jika UMNO berdiri disebelah entiti yang tidak di sukai rakyat, tidakkah UMNO lama kelamaan akan di terajang keluar?
Ia juga peringatan kepada hubaya hubaya UMNO dan penyanyi chorus ini bahawa kemenangan PBB menambahkan kesusahan kepada Najib. Of course, perkara ini tidak di lihat oleh para penulis maya pro UMNO bukan? Mereka lebih syok mengistihatkan PKR out! DAP rasis! Bodoh punya kerja.
Kamu tidak tahu bukan- Taib Mahmud melancarkan coup detat nya sendiri apabila menyegerakan upacara angkat sumpah nya pada pukul hampir 11 malam 16 April lalu. Mengapa tidak sabar dan tergesa gesa? Walhal kamu sudah pun dapat 2/3 majoriti dalam dewan undangan?
Taib Mahmud dengan melakukan demikian telah menempelak Najib dan Muhyidin serta menconteng arang kepada muka UMNO. Of course, mereka tidak tahu.
Taib memang tahu bahawa jika dia tidak bertindak segera, mungkin orang lain akan menggantinya sebagai Ketua Menteri. Pimpinan UMNO mahukan Abang Johari menjadi KM Sarawak. Taib sedar game plan tersebut dan melancarkan suatu gameplan dia sendiri. Yang hanya di perlukan oleh nya ialah menyegerakan acara angkat sumpah. Business concluded. Najib was faced with the unpleasant task of showing a forced euphoria over the victory of PBB in Sarawak.
Najib dan Muhyidin sedar bahawa mereka akan berdepan dengan Taib Mahmud yang lebih perkasa dan lebih yakin.
Siapa mahu puji Taib Mahmud, silakan. Saya lebih berminat menganalisa repercussons kepada UMNO.
Sokongan UMNO secara membelakangkan pola citrasa jenerasi ke 3 Malaysia akan menempatkan UMNO secara bertentangan dengan jenerasi akan datang. Jenerasi tersebut bukan lagi jenerasi yang membaca akhbar arus dasar. Ini jenerasi FB dan pembaca blog serta pelayar alam maya. Oleh kerana, secara umum nya mereka mempunyai tahap pembelajaran yang relative tinggi, mereka dapat membezakan inti yang picisan dan inti yang mencabar minda.
Mereka menyampaikan maklumat kepada ibu dan bapa dan mempengaruhi mereka. Jenerasi baru mahukan perkara yang bebeza dengan jenerasi pertama dan kedua. Jenerasi ini tidak menerima sesuatu tanpa kelayakan.
Sebaliknya, 6-7 tulisan saya sebelumnya di katakan sebagai cadangan direct dan indirect mengharapkan kerajaan sarawak di tumbangkan. Telahan yang kedua masih betul dan releven. Telahan pertama tidak benar.
Ini bukan satu pujian. Orang yang kurang tahu politik on the ground jangan suka hentam keromo. Tidak ada orang yang sukakan sebuah kerajaan yang korap, tidak efisyen dan tidak menjalankan tataurus kerajaan yang baik. Tanyalah sesiapa jenerasi ke3- apa yang mereka mahukan ada pada UMNO? Mereka mahukan ketelusan, tata-urus kerajaan yang baik, kerajaan yang tidak korap dan kerajaan yang cekap. Lebih dari segala nye mereka mahukan sebuah kerajaan yang di pimpin oleh orang yang baik dari sudut kepimpinan.
Saya tidak heran dengan mereka yang tidak mampu menghasilkan penghujjahan mematahkan hujjah saya. Terhabis kuat yang mereka dapat lakukan ialah mencerca dan mengheret hal hal peribadi yang mereka sedikit pun tidak mempunyai pengetahuan mengenai nya. Kepada orang jenis ini, saya persilakan mereka menyambung hayat sebagai orang tongong sebab, ternyata kamu tidak ada argumentasi yang boleh di ketengahkan.
Walaupun Taib Mahmud tetap menang 2/3 undi di Sarawak itu tidak sedikit pun menggoyahkan harapan dan semangat saya untuk mendededahkan kepincangan yang di lakukan oleh mereka yang berkuasa.
Isiu yang lebih besar ialah di manakan UMNO mahu meletakkan dirinya? Dipihak pembela rakyat dan menjadi jurubicara mereka yang lemah atau bersekongkol dengan yang korap dan mencabul kuasa. Pegangan ini tidak ada kena mengena dengan Anwar Ibrahim kerana dia atau PKR tidak mempunyai monopoli keatas kebenaran. Akan tetapi sikap UMNO untuk mendepani masa depan mesti betul. Jika UMNO di lihat oleh rakyat sebagai bersubahat dengan geng jahat, akhirnya UMNO akan roboh.
Kepada sang celaka yang sentiasa mennghasut mahukan respons saya mengenai pendedahan RPK bahawa Tengku Razaleigh terlibat dalam rencana mahu jatuhkan Najib, saya akan jawab nanti. Harap bersabar. Itu suatu topic yang bagus.
Sebagai lontaran awalan saya mahu bertanya- dimana ada termaktub bahawa orang seperti Tengku Razaleigh tidak boleh jadi PM? Atau di mana tertulis bahawa Najib jadi PM selama lama nya? Dia pun orang UMNO. Jika pimpinan UMNO merasakan dia bukan, buangkan sahaja Tengku Razaleigh. Itukan lebih mudah? Kenapa terhegeh hegeh. Keris sudah ada di tangan. Jangan belek sahaja. Gunakan jika pendekar.
Lagi pun apa asas kita mahu percaya apa RPK nyatakan? Bukankah ada timbalan menteri kesukaan pemblog UMNO sudah menyatakan bahawa apa yang RPK sebut, hanya 30% yang betul. 70% auta.
Mungkinkah isiu Tengku Razaleigh yang di bangkitkan termasuk dalam bahagian auta? Dan seterusnya mungkin juga pengakuan bahawa dia tidak menuduh Najib di kaitkan dengan pengeboman Altantuya juga termasuk dalam bahagian 70% auta? Kenapa kita mahu berikan credence kepada seorang yang probability nya 70% auta?


Tuesday 19 April 2011

A failed palace coup d’état?

1TG DATU2316413618BUKIT SABAN27741828
2PANTAI DAMAI5071216419KELAKA51705929
8MUARA TUANG7843632725NANGKA53020
12SADONG JAYA2934029JEPAK31283179
34BUKIT KOTA50613229
35BUKIT SARI50635275

Pardon the design of the above table. I have tabulated the results where PBB candidates contested.
What's the point? The point is to show a cause for Najib's headache. Given the facts of the elections, how to ask Taib Mahmud to go? His PBB has done better than UMNO. His people want him. He can always say, it's not that I don't want to go, but the people still want him. It's difficult to overturn his logic.
In 2011, the majority votes were 125,024. In 2006, the majority votes totaled 74,852. In absolute terms, the majority gained by PBB candidates was bigger than in 2006. That's a 167% increase in total majority votes.
PBB candidates actually increase their majority in 23 DUNs out of the 35 seats contested. That's 66% success rate.
So how will Najib enforce his promise to the Sarawak people that Taib Mahmud is going to leave office?
Taib Mahmud has every reason not to leave or if he wants to leave, he will do so on his own terms and conditions.
All his candidates won. He actually increased the overall majority by 167% compared to the 2006 figures. And his candidates actually increased their majority in 23 out of the 35 DUNs. A number of seats can be said to experience no major changes.
Taib Mahmud won't leave, unless it's enforced by extra constitutional ways or some extraordinary methods.
Why should Taib Mahmud leave? His PBB did better than even UMNO in the 2008 general elections. UMNO couldn't even get majority Malay support in the 2008 elections. Out of the over 5 million Malay votes in 2008, UMNO candidates managed to get only slightly over 2 million votes.
So on what basis can Najib enforce his promise? He can only do so by persuasion. Can he charge Taib Mahmud for corruption even if he has evidence? He can't- because to do so, would be admitting that even though he knows about Taib, he allowed Taib to stand for reelection.
Taib is not an UMNO member. Therefore the UMNO president can't use the party to leverage his desire to see Taib Mahmud out.
What are we going to see then? We will see a stubborn Taib Mahmud who will not leave because he can justifiably say, his people still want him. He has the numbers to back his claim.
Najib has the Taib Mahmud problem to contend with.
The haste by which Taib Mahmud got himself sworn into office caused a lot of consternations and suspicions. Why was he in great hurry? Were there moves to appoint another person other than Taib Mahmud? Was Putrajaya linked to the muffled talks that a palace coup d'état was to take place on the 16th of April?



Monday 18 April 2011

Walla on the future of Chinese politics post Sarawak

A: 'Like a cruise missile, our blogger has quickly homed in on the key impact of the Sarawak state elections, Sir. Any comment?'


B: 'Your lovely eyes mesmerize my lonely heart, Sofea.'


A: '(eyes roll, lips twist). Sir, your attempt at distraction is lost on me, well, today anyway. Please stay focused on this grave matter.'


B: '(sighs, but with a twinkle) Ok, Sofea, i think the impact is more than just about the Chinese voice in BN politics. I think it's about the irrelevance of BN politics itself.


We all knew one day it would come to this. Our Chinese brethren would vote for what they see as needed to arrest the slide of the country. Global relevance, administrative integrity, execution efficiency and principle-based fairness have all slid precipitously.


Despite knowing that an Umno-run BN will take it out on them for their resisting stand, they have been as consistent today as they were in 2008. You can't deny they have shown sterling maturity as thinking and principled citizens even as we know they should have been given more in terms of policy support because what they have been asking are congruent with national interests in the long run.


From their disgust and dismay at the way this country has been run into the ground, they have stood their own ground and are braving themselves to face a future without BN by defending universal principles of good government out of clean and pragmatic politics. You tell me which right-minded government cannot appreciate and should not support this.


Now let me ask you back - how different is their political situation from that of the majority of their Malay brethren in Umno who have been marginalized by the political machinations of its own ultras and elites?'


A: 'Is that why you're saying our BN politics is irrelevant, Sir?'


B: 'BN politics is race-based politics. It is party by race leading to horse trading. This cannot work anymore because the more the ultras react to the Chinese stand in this country, the greater will be racial polarization fueled by politics.


When that happens, our Malays will carve for themselves more political power and this they think they can still do because they still think they hold all the cards of government. They will then marginalize parties like MCA and MIC whose voters will swing to DAP and others.


Remember what Nazri and company had said about the MCA? Remember how Taib had told off Chan in a SUPP dinner?


But it is a big mistake. Because it will cause reaction by our non-Malays to avoid having anything to do with BN.


The final result is the country will be split first politically, then socially, and finally economically. Lacuna and diaspora will be created in every nook and cranny and at every level. And investors with capital, technology, markets and employment will look at our country and say we're only good for short-term. With that, all investment and development plans will be thrown out of orbit. And the only high incomers of our Malay community in the end will be Umno ultras who will be parking their ill-gotten gains in offshore accounts after getting the cabinet to go down on its knees before the saudi's.'


A: 'So you're saying the Awang Selamats of Umno are being short-sighted when they clamor for more Malay-ism in BN politics? More political power to counteract the resurgence of our Chinese and other non-Malays in national politics?'


B: 'Exactly. They should think one more step and ask themselves the simplest of questions and then answer it publicly. And the question is this:


How can a government be the private sector?


Frankly if you look at the way Umno has been running its GLCs, it's a total freaking failure opening up to rampant abuse and bleeding the national coffers.


So how can race-based politics work? It will polarize politics and economics but how to carry on after that stage?


I hate to say this but the trouble with our Malays in political power is that they are extremely short-sighted.'


A: 'Sir, perhaps their short-sightedness is only for the masses. Their own sight is long, deep and glittering with the sheen of gold.'


B: 'Since robbers won't arrest themselves, the stand of our Chinese citizens looks even more relevant and pragmatic by the day. In fact the indirect result of their stand is to support the needs of the moderate masses of our Malays by making sure our country remains relevant to the world.


A: 'I am sure our PM knows all this and he is trying his level best to transform things.'


B: 'You really think so? Then explain to me why he persisted in punishing the folks of Sibu for rebuffing his horse trading offer. Not only flood mitigation but also the airport, i understand.


How can the PM of a country try to bribe rakyat using their money and then when they rebuff the offer, punish them by ignoring their plight and development? Bribe followed by blackmail is double jeopardy, you know.


That single exposure tells us all the actual character of someone raised with a silver spoon, trained overseas and who has rubbed shoulders with world luminaries.


He took it personally. He labeled those who were not for him as against him. Why, is he a fan of Bush?'


A: 'Sir, maybe he is just sacrificing them for the benefit of his Umno carrot-and-stick tactic to try and draw more support from voters so as to realize a bigger and grander vision for Malaysia.'


B: 'Amboi, my dear, open your eyes. You see all those youtube and twitter pics on the Sarawak elections? See the poor folks queuing up, potholed roads, the drab surroundings, the tin-sheds and furniture of the fifties in the polling stations? Except for a handful of places in Peninsular, is our Malaysia that developed and important after half a century of BN rule that we are even qualified to talk about grand visions as sly justification to push and bully our citizens around by using their money to press-gang them into voting for a regime that is not only corrupt but also a syndicated divisive political mafioso in all but name?


Next time he and his cohorts should just take the easy way out. Why not just say if you don't vote for BN, i will red-tar your house doors?


Sofea, what's the difference between Umno's vote-currying tactics and the arm-twisting's of the a-longs?'


A: 'Sir! You're too angry!'


B: 'Sofea, maybe it's because i am old and my eyesight is bad so that this doesn't look good:


Like an old diehard, i tried to frame a doubt in my mind. But the puteri's shown didn't look as though they were show-acting. They looked exactly like the bored and race-minded officials you would see at the desks of some of our local uni's boothing at the job-fairs in the city. What kind of a customer service and culture is that? What kind of supervision was behind it? What kind of future will we have from the impressions that all would have collected by now of what Umno produces? Do you read me, Sofea?'


A: 'Sir, i read you loud and clear. But if you were in his shoes what would you do?'


B: 'I would do all the right things, Sofea. Even if it finishes me and Umno Baru off. Then maybe Umno Version 3.0 can be published.


If we really care for our country, we must really care for our country without preconditions for our own selves. After all what can we carry to our graves?


We lift our hands in supplication when we pray but what will people say of a country where the question of who ordered the hit has yet to be answered. For that matter how the wife of the one in the vortex of that hundred million euro commission can possibly know about submarines when she was just a magistrate before.


Sofea, there are still so many pressing questions given the round-about in the rakyats' minds! Why can't the present government answer them clearly and with finality?'


A: 'I sense your doubts, Sir. And i agree it's not because of the Chinese or other non-Malay element in today's political equation. It's all about doing the right thing. When we look into the eyes of any Malaysian, it's all about righteousness.'


B: 'Umno Baru just won't do, Sofea. It hasn't changed. It is pretentious about discarding its arrogance. It is just prancing on the tightrope of race but there's no safety net below in the circus. And the rakyat have had enough all the charade and shenanigans. The game's up, the show's over. The rakyat know.'


A: 'I feel the same too, Sir. Just look at the PPSMI saga. Now they say they want to do a study. One would have thought that would have been the first thing they would have done. Who's the fcuked up minister involved?'


B: '(eyes popped out). Sofea! Please, i am trying to mend my old and testy ways!'


A: 'hehe. Sorry, Sir. I just get riled by everything that's not going right, that's just spin, that's just angling to win votes by all means and at all costs.


On which score, do you think BN should launch the GE soon?'


B: 'Let me answer that indirectly. Umno Baru will ignore what we have said in much the same way Placido Domingo had first ignored the reversion issue. And then find out the full cost of its arrogance.


And we all know how electoral delineation is loaded for the incumbents. Just look at some of the constituencies. Their results were known earlier because those places had so few voters. But a seat is still a seat in the state assembly so that many small constituencies mean many more seats. No wonder they can talk about two-thirds majority, what with the cash and kind.


I think we should change the government. Maybe then the dayaks of Sarawak can get free potable water.'


A: 'But there are still some who have lingering doubts about the Opposition, Sir.'


B: 'They should ask themselves whether it's because they have been indoctrinated to express gratitude for their morsels to the incumbents while the big rip-offs are taking place in the quiet elsewhere. Remember Toyo's mansion and how it had come about? Taib's sidekick's mansion under construction is even bigger.


And they should ask themselves what the faith has taught them about human beings, about the insignificance of the notion of race, about the need to make principle-based progress and be fair to all.'


A: 'I sense it will be the dirtiest general elections ever in the history of our nation, Sir.'


B: 'Let's not waste time on the obvious, Sofea. I have no confidence in our institutions which are supposed to protect independence and integrity. I can't tell you more but you can guess as much. There's no smoke without fire.'


A: 'Is there a future for our country, Sir?'


B: 'Our Malays will have to answer that. The ball is in their garden. That question is at their doorstep. The others have moved on to do their own things. Our Malays should ask ourselves why the others have taken step to ignore BN. And, honest answer, please. The reckoning for all the excesses and stupidities of Umno all these painful years will come soon enough.'


The Chinese voice in BN politics

SUPP which by general perception represents a compliant and submissive component party suffered extensive defeats in the Sarawak elections. Its president George Chan was defeated by a young lawyer representing DAP.
If SUPP is seen as compliant and submissive, by default, DAP is now viewed as a more aggressive and daring party in sync with Chinese voters sentiments.
The same fate had befallen MCA in Semananjung when it only obtained 15 parliamentary seats in 2008. It's there on the political radar screen as a result of UMNO's benevolence.
MCA like SUPP will now depend on UMNO and PBB respectively for political sustenance. Otherwise, these two parties will continue sliding away and perhaps eventually become irrelevant to Malaysian politics.
How will these two parties operate in future? They have lost ownership as the voice of the Chinese people. The victories of DAP in Sarawak and the MCA's poor showing in the 2008 National Elections signal the rise of more strident voices and demands by the Chinese Community.
There are two ways to stem the slide.
  1. First, Chinese leaders in MCA and SUPP will ask the PM, as leader of BN to allow them more leeway to become MORE Chinese. Meaning, they want to behave like how UMNO behaves – as the unmitigated voice of Chinese interests. The more strident and belligerent the better as a means to regain the Chineseness of their political pronouncements.
  2. Second, as anyone can assume, given the accommodative personality of the PM, he will be seen to giving in to more Chinese demands.
The second one will place the UMNO president at odds with the prevailing UMNO-ish sentiments. The first approach will place MCA and SUPP in a confrontational mode with Malay political parties.
Minister of Health Liow, said MCA acknowledged the "strong signal" sent by Chinese voters to BN's Chinese-based parties. Liow further cautioned that the "drastic reduction" in seats won by SUPP will only increase the perception that the Chinese favour the opposition while other races support BN.
It's not perception Mr Liow- it's how the Chinse feel. They are rejecting Chinese political parties which they see as uncle-toming.
Liow also said the prevailing pro-opposition trend among Chinese voters will only lead to greater racial polarisation among Malaysians and undesirable "consequences" if it is allowed to continue.
What Liow is telling the PM who is the leader of BN, BN must now define itself in the context, first and foremost, with how it deals with parties like MCA and SUPP. Will that signal a new phase in horse trading which will eventually see the UMNO president as one who is seen to be extra charitable when it comes to the Chinese but extra cautious when it comes to assuaging Malay interests?
It will be interesting to see how this PM who is excited at seeing BN wins Sarawak but who now has to consider other aspects amenable for him to call for a general election. Utusan Malaysia for example has given the PM a suggestion which is unmistakably clear. Liow meanwhile, is also under no illusion to realize where rural, non-Chinese votes are with.


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