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Sakmongkol ak 47

Sunday 29 October 2023

Malaysian ringgit is falling down, falling down, my fair lady. Part 1.

1. Nilai ringgit susut bukti dunia hilang keyakinan terhadap Malaysia, kata Anwar


2. That was the prognosis then,it is now too. That others have no confidence in the manner of how this country is run .

3. Specifically, it's how the country's economy is managed.or to use a more imagination capturing phrase used by James Carville, it's the economy, stupid!

4. So, saying things like the ringgit has been falling down since Najib was the PM, looks suspiciosly pedantic to me.

5. Pedantic in the sense of elevating an important cause of our ringgit depreciation to a factor such as Najib's tenure as PM. The ringgit depreciation happened too during his time, so Anwars management of the economy is not to be totally blamed

6. Yes, but the rate of increase in the decline is fastest when Anwar is managing the economy. So, more than proportionate share of the blame must be borne by the Sungai long Bolshevik.

7. As to the issue of linkage to Najib's tenure as PM is concerned, it's for Najib's minders to answer. I shall not provide an econometrics analysis on that linkage. I am not interested in defending Ali babavum Najib moreover.

8. Not only is Najib not the present PM; He was succeeded by mahiadin Al Capone Yassin and the man whom people forget was ever the PM, ismail sabri. Saying the ringgit depreciation began during Najib's time ,does not lessen the pain from the bite of the gila monster.

9. We do not need a history lesson as to when the depreciation took place but what concrete actions are taken by PMx to arrest the ringgit decline. On the various sosmed updates, we want to see what is being done to the ringgit.

10. The public is actually feeling nauseous about social media updates of the PM eating here and there, attending kenduri Rakyat, or meeting sex crazed Ustad. The public wants to see what is being done about the ringgit.

11. The banal and pedestrian explanation given by the trade minister was equally matched by the PM's ignorance of economic matters.

12. The minister said, what's there to worry, our economic fundamentals are strong. Our growth rate, productivity, unemployment, inflation are all good.

13. Of course it's worrying. Now all our imports are more expensive. We have to pay more

14. If our economic fundamentals are strong, how do you explain our ringgit keep diving down?

15. Perhaps, it didn't occur to the PM, that the strong economic fundamentals were caused by spurious factors. That's why I said PMx is an economic novice

16. We just had 2 years of near total economic shut down due to the COVID pandemic. Any slight increase in the economic fundamentals, because we are starting from a lower base, will register extraordinarily very high digit growth .

17. So, the textbookish explanation given by the senator trade minister tak boleh pakai

18. But that kind of explanation appeals to the pm, who says he is not economics ignorant.

19. But as lawyers like to say, res ipsa loquitur, the facts speak for themselves. The economic facts glaring at us, soaring food prices, creeping inflation, menacing unemployment, slower FDi and the bete noire of all things, the bugaboo, the falling ringgit. These nullify the PM's claim he is not economics stupid.

20. If our economic fundamentals were strong as claimed by the senator minister, why didn't they arrest the depreciation of the ringgit? Or worse, the figures in the mind of the election loser were fictitious. Nang bohtee nang, kui bohtee kui

21.our analysis of the exchange rate of the ringgit must begin with basic building blocks of all economic analysis - the law of supply and demand .

22. Assuming that supply is kept constant, what are the factors that affect the demand of our ringgit? Why for instance, demand of RM not Rosmah ya, low compared to the demand of the SD!

23. I think it's time to distinguish the psychology of an investor and the currency trader. They may give different weightage to the factors usually given by academic analysts.

24. The currency trader for instance, may put a high weightage on interest rate differerentials. The investor looks at how the country is run overall. Things like inflation, corruption, gdp, total national debt, ease of doing business etc.

25. The currency trader deals in currency only. The investor builds plants, invests in people, machines. His psychology is different from that of a pure currency trader .

26. I wouldn't pay much attention to the stale story as told by the senator trade minister about economic fundamentals. He tells stories that explained nothing.

27. In fact, I see an inverse relation between an investor and a currency trader. More currency trading activities crowd out investing activities.

28. Why is that so? Because more currency traders mean higher interest, but higher interests make investors less attracted because to them the cost of capital will be high .

29. You have to decide then. Do you want more currency trading or investing? Our ministers are confused over the psychology of these 2 economic agents.

30. I won't discuss the academic bucket list that affects Fund managers cum investors. Things that you normally hear if you are sitting in an exam. Income rate differerentials, inflation, unemployment rate, national debt, GDP, political stability and so on.

31. The grouping together of fund managers and investors is in itself, reflective of the confusion understanding the psychology between a currency trader and an investor.


Sunday 15 October 2023

The ballads of the Sungai Long Bolshevik part 1

1. It's like ms Clara says. She's the old lady in the Wendy commercial. Where's the beef?

2. Many of us feel like asking the same question. From Papa Non. We are inundated with slogans upon slogans. Everything Madanised.

3. We have masyarakat Madani, Negara Madani, ekonomi Madani etc. Everything can be Madanised.

4. Everything seems to be maddening. Perhaps kita kena MainDahNi. By the villaiNons . Malay, walanon.

5. On stage, the slogans were enthralling and entertaining. With the typical nasal voice. Hands puncturing the air. For emphasis. And dramatic effects .

6. There were many promises. Kita bela Rakyat. Kita Lawan korupsi , sakau, pembaziran, cabul kuasa . When you promised, you better carry them out. Otherwise don't promise.

7. The English have an idiom for that. It's called be all talk. The Chinese say, much thunder little rain . The Malays will say, habuk pun tadak. The Indians will have a similar idiom

8. We are repulsed and revolted at the PM's verbal yo yos. They insult our intelligence.

9. When asked why he included Zahid in the cabinet at that time, he hid behind the overused cliche of innocent until proven guilty.

10. Which meant that at that time, Zahid was between innocence and guilty. By including Zahid in the cabinet, PM Anwar removed zahid's undetermined fate and want him to be innocent.

11. The message he's sending was, Zahid was already innocent. He took out the decision making from the judiciary. He predetermined zahid's fate

12. To me that's an indirect interference with the judiciary without having to actually interfere .it was a sly move.

13. He achieved this preliminary and ignominious rehabilitation of the Javanese neanderthal by 2 things. By hiding behind the overused rule of innocent until proven guilty and including the Javanese dullard in his kitchen cabinet .

14. Now, the rehabilitation of Zahid is complete. He hides behind the less defensible rule of judicial independence. He causes the 47 gold nuggets to be dropped, for the time being.

15. I say less defensible rule, because who is to say he doesn't interfere at the levels of SPRM, AGC or even at the judicial level?

16. We can't prove that he actually did interfere. Just as we can't prove the existence of oxygen. But we know it's there in the atmosphere. We lived and are alive, aren't we?

17. On the preponderance of probabilities, we can conclude he has interfered in judicial enforcing institutions. He has created only chaos and destruction.

18. As a politician, he is more governed by Bismarck's rule, politics is the art of the possible. He has no guard rails as premier.

19. So, he can appear in parliament, feigned ignorance and innocence, nobody believes him. 11 out of 10 don't .

20. Anwars view to the law is also suspect. It's iffy, irresolute and vacillating reflecting his own skirmishes with the law.

21. By causing the issuance of DNAA to Zahid, he has shown he cannot be depended to enforce a common law. It's common law to peasants, uncommon law to patricians.

22. The many promises he made so easily but not carried out, show that he is duplicitous and a fraud. Perhaps pathological liar is too strong a description, but lying is second nature to him.

23. On top of that, he failed to provide the type of leadership needed. Which is to prevent and correct a grievous wrong.

24. When it comes to the law, Anwar is milk-and -water, wishy-washy and a sissy. When it comes to governing, hes a political anthropod, a political invertebrate. With the many centrifugal forces pulling you from the true north, Whoever governs Malaysia, must have that iron in him.

25. Even by Machiavellian standards, he is wanting. He doesn't know how to differentiate between being a nice person and an effective leader. The 2 are practically incompatible.

26. That is indeed a difficult question. It must necessarily involved political tradeoffs. You can only be an effective leader if you become a stricter disciplinarian. As Machiavelli said, you must sometimes inspire terror . It's better to be feared than to be loved,said Lee Kuan Yew.

27. As to being a nice person, anwars reputation is legendary. He eats here, there and everywhere. At warungs, eating grilled fish, biryani and so on. Jamuan Rakyat, signing this and that, officiating this and that, social gatherings etc. He has the knack of making you feel he has known you for years where in fact you have only met .

28. But as to being an effective leader, Nahi, Babu. An effective leader enriches the country, brings honour to the country and achieves political stability. His achievements in these areas, are in doubt

29. The chummy gestures may all be a red herring. Meant to divert our attention from looking closely at his real tasks. Managing the economy, managing those around him, forging social cohesiveness, political stability and so on. Instead we are brought on his frolics in the political jungle .

30. We actually feel nauseous whenever PM shares on the social media what he does , but which we are not concerned with. Eating here, there, opening ceremonies here and there, meeting someone here, there everywhere. In that sense, the PM is no different from gossipy ladies sharing things they do on the social media. I am cooking for my darling, I am trying my new branded handbag etc

31. But with the PM, there is an ulterior motive. To show people that he is working tirelessly. As Machiavelli says, the vulgar crowd is always taken in by appearance, and the world is full of vulgar people. Anwar will always find people who allow themselves to be decieved.
We want things shared like, I have done this today to reduce the price of cooking oil, of rice etc. I am doing this to stop the ringgit from falling down further. The economy, stupid! said James Carville .

33. Unless of course, like uncle Machiavelli said, promises given were a thing of the past, promises broken are a thing of the present.

34. I won't talk much about economics today. I will reserve that juicy subject later. But it puzzles me that we are a palm oil producer but the price of cooking oil is skyrocketing . It doesn't occur to mat sabu to import cheaper rice. That despite our economic fundamentals being strong as mentioned by t zafrul, our ringgit is going down. Telling that to the PM is of no use. He is an economics illiterate!

35. Unless the PKR yahoo boys are willing to be true congsigliaries, advising the PM bluntly and brutally, even at the risk of being scolded, rebuffed or even sacked, that would make throwing him under the bus, like the charge of the light brigade, seems a sensible option.

36. Like the ballads he likes to croon and dances along, reformasi is being processed imperceptibly. In fact, there is a real danger, that reformasi teaches you to be a better and slickier persons than the people you condemned. It's what Frantz fanon said, the oppressed becomes the oppressor!


Wednesday 11 October 2023

Pelangai oh Pelangai!

1. In the tale of 2 cities, C. Dickens wrote, it was the best of time, it was the worst of times.

2. Exactly the way we can described the situation oomno was in . It was the best of times, because UMNO gets to place it's candidate in Pelangai.

3. It was the best of times, because UMNO gets to leverage on the strength of the unity government. It can say it's part of the ruling government and the incumbent. It enjoys the advantage of an incumbent. The candidate is from UMNO just like the previous adun who unfortunately died in a plane crash

4. But it was the worst of times for UMNO. UMNO can expect all sorts of tirades, lies, diatribes, villification, hurled at it . UMNO can't expect PN to serenade it with adulatory songs. That occur only in mkt meetings. Sanusi would even say, buah peliak hang lah UMNO.

5. Therefore for Zahid to say, UMNO got a reduced majority because of the lies and slanders by PN, was not a clever statement.

6. When I was mp, Zahid was the home minister. There was a joke, from those have worked with Ghazali Shafie, that the whole of zahid's body is equivalent to only half of king ghaz's brain. But what to do, that is the kind of dullard preferred by Nana Anwar.

7. I can only say this about zahid's logic and explanation. It was banal, vapid, platitudinous and pedestrian. If that's the quality of explanation given by Zahid, we can expect him to under-performed as rural development Minister.

8. Poor Anwar, he expects a bumper harvest of talent, instead he gets a barren one. It's a person like Zahid that should be moved to another ministry or moved out altogether .

9. The reduced majority by UMNO can possibly mean that it no longer enjoy the monopoly in the extremist narrative of the MMGA(make Malays great always) ideology. That monopoly is now chiseled away by PN.

10. It could also mean that UMNO on its own, can never beat PN. UMNO needs a whole village to beat PN . Under the leadership of Tok 4 Nana Anwar.

11. So wak jahid, don't be smug in your explanation. UMNO has to be part of the unity government by all means necessary to stay relevant.

12. Many Malaysians are unhappy that some online newspapers keep repeating the garbage, that BN won, BN retains seat or it's a victory for BN.

13. Fellers, it's a win for the unity government, not BN. UMNO has to be part of the government to win. It's not the government. It's only a cog in the wheel. Ada faham?

14. These online papers are probably paid for by UMNO newspapers. Told to repeat lies that in the end be believed. It's obviously a Goebbelsian propaganda.

15. The misinformation is intentional. It seems there are misguided souls still romanticising that UMNO is the government .

16. The misinformation gives UMNO and its stooges, the illusion of UMNO is the government. These reactionary are dreaming of the halcyon days of free wheeling and dealing, unchecked corruption and mismanagement.

17. So papa Non, check your tendon and heel. UMNO aims the arrow at your Achilles body .

18. The hard truth is, UMNO is the unity government weak link. But it's behaving like a petulant child. Making all sorts of unreasonable demands .

19. Like demanding the release of the embezzler in chief. As if this country has no law .

20 . And asking the pm consider appointing Jo Ghani as finance minister. As though this country's economy will prosper overnight . Is this an UMNO government?


Monday 2 October 2023

How the PM can last long -i am not talking about taking ubat kuat, drinking kopi jantan, tongkat Ali or Viagra.

1. Other people may be indifferent as to whether the PM stays long as leader of this county. If some are interested to see the PM last long, they are not being brutally frank to him. The temporal and ecclesiastical dictators in PN want the PM out asap.

2. It's good that some people will not throw the PM under the bus or throw him to the wolves. It's comforting to know that some people won't abandon him .

3. But what is the use of staying loyal and being steadfast to him, if doesn't last long as leader? The wolves will devour him.

4. Right now, his longevity as leader is threatened by zahid's DNAA issue. Don't whitewash it. People are angry that Zahid got a DNAA.

5. I may be critical of him at times, but I support him and want him to last. As do many others. He is our best hope at the moment. Just look at the alternatives, mahiadin, Hadi et all? Our future will be depressing. They are not tenable except to Malay and pas's Islamic chauvinists.

6. So, tell the PM, do not take this DNAA issue lightly. It's the albatross hanging around his neck. Or to use a phrase much loved by Lokman 'goebbels' Adam, the PM is carrying a body of a live monitor lizard.

7. It's not enough saying the PM doesn't interfere with the judiciary, the investigation was done by SPRM, the charge by AGC, the verdict by the judge. Despite these palliatives people still believed the PM interfered and therefore, is accountable.

8. If the judiciary is strictly off limits and the PM does indeed and in fact, not interfere with the judiciary, the same cannot be said of the SPRM and AGC

9. These 2 entities are not on the same level as the judiciary. There are just government departments subject to oversight by the PM's office. So, we can bitch about them to our hearts content. There are many inferences and assumptions we can impute on them.

10. It can possibly mean that Azam baki's boys have done a shoddy job. The report they made can be mutilated mercilessly by the defence lawyer. Rather than endure the ignominy, the DNAA was a godsend.
Perhaps the boys were too engrossed over their mistresses and kept women.

11. It's time for the pm to reassess the competence of these boys with sijil pengampu rendah Malaysia. Whatever happened to the loud promises to retire Azam baki? That's the first sign that PKR has reneged on their many promises .

12. But I think the more bizzare and unexplainable behavior, was the conduct of the DPP. After listening to the 11 reasons contained in the representation of Herr Zahid, he meekly surrendered and waved the white flag .

13. It's as though the DPP was intimidated by zahid's representation and rather than arguing his brief vigorously, he took the face saving route of discontinuing the proceedings.

14. It's shameful, isn't it? The DPP is cowed by the representation of a rich and powerful person like Zahid, but legal high-handedness was readily apparent in the case of a Terengganu mother who was jailed for 14 months , for stealing 2 packets of Milo!

15. The DPP has suddenly caught the dreaded foot and mouth disease. He'd rather walk down the hall of shame and the cat has bitten off his tongue

16. He didn't show a Ballsy attitude did he, not as did his counterpart in Terengganu. Perhaps he didn't eat enough keropok lekor . Guane mu Awang?

17. The same deferential and black to minstrel attitude is generally shown to the rich and powerful elsewhere. I didn't hear any howls from the legal fraternity when Ali babavum Najib is escorted like a VIP to court instead as like a convict that he is. And wearing his Zegna or Hugo bossku suit to court instead of the standard issue prison garb emblazoned on the shirt, 'I love kajang Hilton'.

18. Hence , there seems to exist a social apartheid in our legal system brought about by fee chaser lawyers. That makes the proposal by Mr Dick the butcher, in Henry 6, 'the first thing we do, is kill all the lawyers', sounds sensible

19. Possibly the current DPP was part of the prosecution team once headed by Raja rozela. If he was, he wasn't paying attention,was sleeping or only acted as passenger. When it comes to him helming the prosecution team, he doesn't know what to do or is ill prepared.

20. That's a serious dereliction of duty or bald incompetence. Sufficient reasons to have him cashiered.

21. The PM can appear before parliament and asked where's the proof that he interfered in the DNAA case . That's like asking show me the air that we breathe. Of course nobody can show the air, but we know it's there. We are alive aren't we? Similarly nobody in parliament has proof, but you can't obliterate the public view that the PM interfered in some ways .

22. Engaging in verbal fisticuffs in parliament will not solve the trust deficit with the public. It's not verbal joustings in parliament that are important, but regaining public trust.

23. Rather than arguing until you are blue in the face about the DNAA which is actually defending Zahid and looked at as being on the side of the oppressor, it's better to dedicate efforts at regaining public trust . By default, it shows that Zahid is a liability.

24. Don't be sentimental about Zahid. He is expendable. The damage to people's faith, far outweighs the political advantages of saving Zahid.

25. The overriding task now is to cause zahid's subsequent proceedings to resume asap. The government must have an impregnable case .

26. In order to have an unassailable case, the pm must precede the case by reforming the 2 institutions which he in practice, can influence. SPRM and the AGC

27. Perhaps it's time to terminate the services of Azam baki and other deadwood in SPRM. That's fulfilling some of the promises made in the last election. The institution does not exactly inspire confidence, when you have some officials having publicised relationships with their mistresses and their comfort women and some people allowing their brothers using their accounts to buy shares. It's reflects their belief that being in SPRM makes them invincible to any forms of disciplining.

28. It's also time to restructure the prosecution team. It must be a crack team comprising of very competent lawyers, Messianic and pit bullish in attitude desiring a win in their case. Isn't it a shame to see the government loses its case? The prosecution team members ought to commit seppuku, if they do .

29. Many of us are puzzled as to why the government must claim ownership of the DNAA. It's a decision by the court. Claiming ' ownership over the DNAA means it has to defend the DNAAs legitimacy at all cost. It actually means the government is defending a crook.

30. Having to defend the legitimacy of the DNAA only strengthens public belief that there was indeed unconscionable interference in the case. Otherwise why defend it?

31. Unashamedly, the government is arguing about the DNAA, many of the speakers going blue in their faces and veins in the necks bulging . For what?

32. Better to divert and focus efforts to regain public faith and confidence. Announce that zahid's case will continue asap. Reform SPRM. Reconstitute AGC. Stop claiming ownership over DNAA. Zahid's not worth it

33. The many promises the PM makes on stage and at many occasions, start fulfilling many of them. There are many things promised-jailing crooks, weeding out corruption and sakau, eradicating abuse of power, stoping wastage, enforcing good governance. If the pm is serious about the last, create a minister for the civil service or minister of good governance. Start fulfilling, otherwise people say the pm is a hypocrite!

34. The pious but pompous declaration that I won't throw the pm under the bus, can be raised a notch higher by advising the PM how to last long- and I am not talking about ubat kuat or Viagra.

35. By advising the PM, in a brutally frank manner, don't break faith with the people and do the things you promised!

36. To achieve the 2 things, the PM must use the kitchen sink politics. Do everything politically practical to achieve the objectives. If the institutions I mentioned are formed by Royal charter, interfere with them if you must. Removing the mischief is the most important thing. I don't care if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice!

Next article, "Is zahid's DNAA PM's Waterloo?"


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