Reformasi in the economy. Part 3. Devil's advocate series no 13.

1. If the PKR people think reformasi is the shouting and shrieking part, it's misplaced enthusiasm and excitement.

2. It's not about getting mass feel good feeling or hysterical orgasm - the doing part is more important 

3. It must be the surgical overthrow of the 'ancient regime', it's political culture and in this particular instance, the specific economic model 

4. An economic model based on 3 principal elements. 

5. A pick and choose business model which is discretionary , depending on the leaders' despotism and never principle based. 

6. Buttressed by a host of preferential treatment and affirmative policies. Challenge to them is regarded defiance, disloyalty and unpatriotic. It's essentially class protection. 

7. It's a model based on the zero sum principle. Non Malays can only gain, by depriving Malays economic opportunities. 

8. The enabling superstructure is of course, central command economics. 

9. That is why, you see most civil servants mythified as technocrats are cocky bastards 

10. This pick and choose winners economic model must be done away with. Just so you wouldn't think we are envious these people got rich because the government picked and chose them, we will give economic rationale 

11. This model prevents the rise of resilient, competent and genuine entrepreneurs in the economy 

12. This holds back the Malay economy as the genuine entrepreneurs, not artificially created ones from emerging. 

13. The pick and choose economic model creates a new putera class from the bumiputera hoi poloi. 

14. The putera class is incapable or rather do not want to produce the trickle down effects expected of them by the voodoo economics planners 

15. They are more interested in lining their own pockets rather than uplifting the lot of their fellow beings 

16. Uplifting others are only spoken words by sly politicians wanting to calm them and secure their support 

17. Have you seen these puteras helping out the bumis? 

18. Empirical evidence will show ,the income disparity between the T20 and the B40 remains unchanged. 

19. The average monthly income of the T40 is now probably RM12000 while the average monthly income of the B40 is around 2000 Ringgit. 

20. The income disparity between interracial and intraracial will likely remain because we got it wrong with our basic economic model. 

21. As long as the pick and choose winners economic model remains, there will be no economic redress. 

22. From the heydays of this economic model ( starting from the days of Mahathir) till now, our economic set up remains unchanged 

23. Now, we have the chosen and picked like bestinet, nexG and others that carry the pick and choose flag. 

24. After enjoying initial successes, they will eventually fail because the patronage with which they initially grew is no more. 

25. Most of those picked and chosen by Mahathir failed. The same fate or end awaits those now nurtured by Anwar. It's destiny. 

26. They failed because their strengths and competences were built exogenously instead of endogenously . 

27. If the 2nd line leaders in PKR especially and PH in general, don't realise that economic reformasi require a radical change in the basic pick and choose winners economic model, things will remain status quo. 

28. How can there be? If these leaders don't know and understand what economic reformasi entails, how can they in turn communicate what are the changes needed? 

29. I have been saying this repeatedly, if these leaders approach their portfolios, without a reformasi state of mind, things will be the same. 

30. We must also reject the zero sum mentality. 

31. We can't go around with the idea, that economic gains by non malays mean depriving and robbing Malays of economic opportunities 

32. That would mean that we are at constant loggerheads. Instead of finding ways to expand the economic cake, we are always fighting over an assumed constant economic pie. 

33. That by the way, is the economic thinking that predicates the economic agenda of UMNO and the Malay supremacists. 

34. Therefore there are valid reasons to do away with the zero sum mentality. It at once remove the
source of much racial tensions as well as prevent the overall decrease of national productivity. 

35. There's an added incentive to do away with the zero sum mentality. It removes the arsenal from parties like UMNO from using the technique to gaslight Malays. 

36. The zero sum mentality and the pick-and-choose- winners economic model come together in the embrace of Central command economics. 

37. This is the belief that the greatest of economic achievements are determined by the dictates of central command, i.e. by politicians and bureaucratic brahmins. 

38. Accordingly the politicians and bureaucratic brahmins focus not on economic achievements but on the rules and clauses that permit them to regulate and control. 

39. Rather than finding ways to secure economic achievements, the focus is on preferential clauses, affirmative clauses, entitlement clauses etc. Form over substance . Insisting adherence to these are more important than real economic achievements 

40. To me, economic reformasi involved 3 basic things. 

41. Getting rid of the politically motivated pick -choose-winners economic model, get rid of the zero sum mentality, and most important of all getting rid of the restraints imposed by central command economics. 

42. My verdict: sorry sir, no economic reformasi. It's more of the same.

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Reformasi in the economy. Part 1. Devil's advocate series no 11.

1. It was reported this. The government is looking forward to 10 Malay IPOs. They want to create 500m Malay noveu rich

2. When I read this, I know that economic reformasi is fake

3. If the malays are good, why do they need assistance from the government?

4. This is what you get, when you believe that the greatest economic achievements come from the dictates of central command economics

5. The truth is, the greatest of economic achievements result from private enterprise operating under a system of free market economics.

6. Sunway did not grow big because some bureaucrats in Putrajaya guided it's growth

7. The Kuok group does not become big because Amir Hamzah and gang bridesmaid them

8. Similarly, the IOI group doesn't become big because some bureaucrats in Putrajaya tell them what to do

9. On the other hand, as comparison, look at how most of the bumi companies got big.

10. They got big because they were given exclusive licences, monopolies and were given direct businesses by the government

11. They got big from the assistant of what I called the grand deep state.

12. A deep state is the collusion between high government officials and the business community

13. A grand deep state occurs when the is collusion between high government officials AND political leaders and the business community.

14. You think a Bangla can become a big taiko and towkay without the grand deep state?

15. Or nexG becomes a billion ringgit business without the grand deep state?

16. Or the man who rented helicopters to PETRONAS, Syed Mokhtar presently, others got big without the grand deep state?

17. Even NAFAS- can it evolve into a company of leisure and decadent wealth supplying fertiliser nobody wants if not assisted by the grand deep state?

18. Let's get real- this will be a contest between central command economics and free market economics .

19. The companies that thrive for the moment because of central command economics will eventually fail

20. Because they evolved not though building organic competencies but grew because they are hand guided by the grand deep state

21. On the other hand, company that grew because of internal competencies will endure .

22. What happened when 1 day, anvar ebraheem decides to remove the grand deep state and removed monopolies, licenses and so on?

23. The companies that thrive for the time being because of patronage, will go kaput!

24. Will the PM realise that this way of economic growth by the dictates of central command economics and through the grand deep state is the UMNO way?

25. The first step on the road of economic reformasi begins by unfollowing the UMNO way!

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Issues in the Malaysian economy. Part 3. Sontoloyo series 90.

1. It's not that we are kaypoh, but we are also bitchy to know how (if one person)many wives he has, how is his collection of patek phillibpe watches, his fleet of Bentleys and how many 5m houses he has.

2. But usually in a clandestine operation like this , there's a cartel, a commission in which there is a boss brahmin

3. The cartel will decide which crony companies to provide soft loans, where to give capital injections and bail outs and which zanny projects to finance.

4. So apart from the issue of a fictional deficit, claimed to be the result of the much noised tatakelola, is the issue of a fictional deficit hiding many nefarious dealings

5. It's the issue of CONCEALMENT or to be more Islamic, the VEIL as it were, hiding many evils

6. Do you see what the bureaucratic brahmins are doing? They are prolonging the lifespan of inefficient and badly run economic agents and funding less useful projects. But money making for them.

7. They are actually sabotaging the economy by allowing incompetent economic agents to drive our economy.

8. By allowing incompetent economic agents to operate, they crowd out the more competent ones.

9. Because of them, our economy is performing below par.

10. The role of these bureaucratic brahmins proved the existence of a deep state not just in MOF but across all ministries.

11. A deep state is the collusion between decision making civil servants and business people.

12. They are in effect, comprador capitalists. Agents for both foreign and local businesses to exploit us .

13. Off with their heads. Cut off their goolies. Declare war on the deep state. Remove them in all ministries.

14. Do account and lifestyle audits. Unleash the SPRM hounds on them.

15. Let me illustrate the issue in another way. It will serve to show my latent scepticism about the deficit.

16. Suppose our revenue is 10b. Suppose further, our liabilities excluding overpaid taxes is 4b.

17. Now, we include the overpaid taxes to the liabilities - our liabilities is now increased. Assume the overpaid taxes as 3b. Our liabilities is now 7b.

18. If our revenue stays at 10b,we have less debt free funds to go around with.

19. If we have only 3b debt free funds, we limit the range with which to spend

20. We have to be very thrifty in spending on public amenities like health care, public transport, public housing etc.

21. Because of the reduced debt free funds, we are going to wear ourselves thin spending on the various public amenities I mentioned

22. We must be conscious of the fact that this state of affairs has been brought because the bureaucratic brahmins have manipulated the concept of deficit and treating the IOU as revenue. You can't postpone indefinitely, not paying the taxpayers .

23. With increased liability, the percentage of debt to GDP will increase. Further you have to pay higher interests.

24. What do you do to compensate the reduced revenue? You borrow additional funds, hiding behind the concept of deficit

25. This a double whammy. You increase national debt and pay additional interest .

26. Eventually, the bubble will burst and the chickens come home to roost.

27. The public will know that you have been dishonest, scamming with the deficit.

28. Reduced revenue will also constraint the government from reinvesting into the economy. As a result,the PPC is pulled backwards

29. So apart from being dishonest and scamming about the 'deficit' which is an ethical issue, there are a number of adverse economic effects.

30. Also we are weary about the possibility of deficit manipulation, opening the doors of bureaucratic corruption and the consolidation of the Deep State.

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Lahuma, Jeha and the rice saga. Tales by an unknown blogger no 55

1. Mat Sabu said stiff punishment awaits farmers who repack local rice as imported rice. As though they care 2 hoots about what he said . They just want extra money and will likely do it. Desperate times require desperate measures. Confound what Mat Sabu, the minister with the cat fish lips says.

2. Instead of announcing of measures to solve the main problem-the disappearance of local rice, the chap spoke about a piece of legislation.

3. That's typical of a bloke who has no inkling how to solve the problem, spoke of something which is distracting.

4. As though , speaking about a piece of legislation gives the impression that he is doing something major about the problem. It's collateral only.

5. Oi, mat sabu, what you are really doing is protecting the rice importer. As of now the monopolistic bernas. Assuring it, that the imported price will not be disturbed. Guaranteeing the abnormal profits .

6. From there, bernas can possibly donate 10%, 30 to 40m. Then people will say- how philanthropic. Bernas, the moopolist is superbly run by a type M.

7. The right wingers will all clap their hands in gleeful approbation. Hurrah, belts off, pants down .dicks out , ready for a jolly good time!

8. What you did , angers the lahuma and jeha of the padi growing community. In case you forget, lahuma and jeha are the 2 main characters of shahnon Ahmad's novel, ranjau disepanjang jalan.

9. What measures mat sabu has taken, or rather not taken , the padi farmers will end up like lahuma and jeha, dead!

10. The fate of lahuma and jeha is of course too dramatic and too severe..our farmers nowadays are ready and willing to adapt and adopt new technologies if they are cheap enough and taught on how to use them.

11. Are new and cheap technologies withheld from farmers, monopolistic suppliers are interested to sell expensive technologies only. And field officers are not willing to go to sites?

12. The salvation to the rice impasse, I repeat, I repeat must entail the following :-

13.

• Restructure the supply chain. Liberalise the market. Reorganize nafas, dismantle the deep state, reorganize Mardi etc.
• Introduce primary productivity enhancing technology.
• Instead of subsidies, make easy and cheap credit available to farmers.
• Maybe land ownership reforms

14.

• Relook at the ownership of padi mills.
• Allow mills to sell direct to retailers
• Eliminate the middlemen conglomerates.

15. Dismantle the monopoly on rice imports. Liberalise the import market. Everybody capable can import rice. If beras is superbly run, it need not fear competition .

16. Finally, what to do with mat shabu2? The PM does not be burdened with morality issues ( Nietzsche slave morality), sentimentality, romanticism , bourgeois values etc, retire mat shabu2. The pm needs the same resolve to retire some other duds in the cabinet . Wak47 for instance.

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Malaysian ringgit is falling down, falling down, my fair lady. Part 1.

1. Nilai ringgit susut bukti dunia hilang keyakinan terhadap Malaysia, kata Anwar

 

2. That was the prognosis then,it is now too. That others have no confidence in the manner of how this country is run .

3. Specifically, it's how the country's economy is managed.or to use a more imagination capturing phrase used by James Carville, it's the economy, stupid!

4. So, saying things like the ringgit has been falling down since Najib was the PM, looks suspiciosly pedantic to me.

5. Pedantic in the sense of elevating an important cause of our ringgit depreciation to a factor such as Najib's tenure as PM. The ringgit depreciation happened too during his time, so Anwars management of the economy is not to be totally blamed

6. Yes, but the rate of increase in the decline is fastest when Anwar is managing the economy. So, more than proportionate share of the blame must be borne by the Sungai long Bolshevik.

7. As to the issue of linkage to Najib's tenure as PM is concerned, it's for Najib's minders to answer. I shall not provide an econometrics analysis on that linkage. I am not interested in defending Ali babavum Najib moreover.

8. Not only is Najib not the present PM; He was succeeded by mahiadin Al Capone Yassin and the man whom people forget was ever the PM, ismail sabri. Saying the ringgit depreciation began during Najib's time ,does not lessen the pain from the bite of the gila monster.

9. We do not need a history lesson as to when the depreciation took place but what concrete actions are taken by PMx to arrest the ringgit decline. On the various sosmed updates, we want to see what is being done to the ringgit.

10. The public is actually feeling nauseous about social media updates of the PM eating here and there, attending kenduri Rakyat, or meeting sex crazed Ustad. The public wants to see what is being done about the ringgit.

11. The banal and pedestrian explanation given by the trade minister was equally matched by the PM's ignorance of economic matters.

12. The minister said, what's there to worry, our economic fundamentals are strong. Our growth rate, productivity, unemployment, inflation are all good.

13. Of course it's worrying. Now all our imports are more expensive. We have to pay more

14. If our economic fundamentals are strong, how do you explain our ringgit keep diving down?

15. Perhaps, it didn't occur to the PM, that the strong economic fundamentals were caused by spurious factors. That's why I said PMx is an economic novice

16. We just had 2 years of near total economic shut down due to the COVID pandemic. Any slight increase in the economic fundamentals, because we are starting from a lower base, will register extraordinarily very high digit growth .

17. So, the textbookish explanation given by the senator trade minister tak boleh pakai

18. But that kind of explanation appeals to the pm, who says he is not economics ignorant.

19. But as lawyers like to say, res ipsa loquitur, the facts speak for themselves. The economic facts glaring at us, soaring food prices, creeping inflation, menacing unemployment, slower FDi and the bete noire of all things, the bugaboo, the falling ringgit. These nullify the PM's claim he is not economics stupid.

20. If our economic fundamentals were strong as claimed by the senator minister, why didn't they arrest the depreciation of the ringgit? Or worse, the figures in the mind of the election loser were fictitious. Nang bohtee nang, kui bohtee kui

21.our analysis of the exchange rate of the ringgit must begin with basic building blocks of all economic analysis - the law of supply and demand .

22. Assuming that supply is kept constant, what are the factors that affect the demand of our ringgit? Why for instance, demand of RM not Rosmah ya, low compared to the demand of the SD!

23. I think it's time to distinguish the psychology of an investor and the currency trader. They may give different weightage to the factors usually given by academic analysts.

24. The currency trader for instance, may put a high weightage on interest rate differerentials. The investor looks at how the country is run overall. Things like inflation, corruption, gdp, total national debt, ease of doing business etc.

25. The currency trader deals in currency only. The investor builds plants, invests in people, machines. His psychology is different from that of a pure currency trader .

26. I wouldn't pay much attention to the stale story as told by the senator trade minister about economic fundamentals. He tells stories that explained nothing.

27. In fact, I see an inverse relation between an investor and a currency trader. More currency trading activities crowd out investing activities.

28. Why is that so? Because more currency traders mean higher interest, but higher interests make investors less attracted because to them the cost of capital will be high .

29. You have to decide then. Do you want more currency trading or investing? Our ministers are confused over the psychology of these 2 economic agents.

30. I won't discuss the academic bucket list that affects Fund managers cum investors. Things that you normally hear if you are sitting in an exam. Income rate differerentials, inflation, unemployment rate, national debt, GDP, political stability and so on.

31. The grouping together of fund managers and investors is in itself, reflective of the confusion understanding the psychology between a currency trader and an investor.

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Adolph Muhyi's budget.

1. In case people forget this is yet another Deficit budget. It means you spend more than you earn.

2. For 2021 we will spend 320 billion, and we will earn only 227 billion. How will bridge the gap?

3. We can borrow. 2nd, we can hope the economy will expand. The FM is being Pollyannaish saying the economy will grow by 6 to 7%. 3rd we can print money.

4. A deficit is not to be alarmed at, if it's linked to the ability to pay. Unfortunately we can't.

5. Specifically how can we fill up the 100 million gap? I think this backdoor government will do 2 things. Concoct a stimulus package and squeeze blood from stone.

6. Muhyi can always fleece the PETRONAS emaciated cash cow. Do you know that at one time shopaholic Najib asked Petronas to pay RM74 billion? Muhyi can always do the same. Then he can claim there's no recession. Like lying Najib.

7. Muhyi can also order Bank Negara to provide stimulus packages like lying baby face Najib. If I remember correctly, Najib introduced 2 stimulus packages totalling 67 billion. Muhyi can introduce 3. One up on Najib. Then he can brag- what recession?

8. In fact, I am told swollen faced Muhyi has introduced 4 stimulus packages totalling 305 billion.

9. Muhyi even copied lying Najib when he increased the debt to GDP ceiling from 55% to 60%. So he can sing to the tune of Magnificent Montague and Marvin X's- spend baby spend.

10. Does Muhyi understand the meaning of the concept of economic prudence? Does the aristocat(not aristocrat)bean counter at MOF understand its meaning?

11. I am not being a Cassandra here. But there are more questions than answers in the 2021 budget. Here are a few.

12. I want to cite James Carville-its the economy stupid. That should be the primary focus of the bean counter. As for Muhyi he's suffering from the Morarji Desai syndrome. Drinking his own urine. He just doesn't care.

13. Where are the economic growth coming from? Our exports are down revenue from Petronas is down, We can't export our manufactures etc. The world is in recession.

14. Economic logic says in order to achieve 6-7%growth we have to double or triple our growth. Otherwise, a normal growth rate would just be absorbed by the economic contraction previously. That's impossible as A.R. Tompel says.

15. Has the FM considered the potential of e economy especially now that we are ravaged by the pandemic? Online infrastructure can even jump start the rural economy.

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16. Without these the option opened to this government is to keep borrowing. That would transfer present liability to future generations. Our succeeding generations will only know debt and pay higher taxes.

17. Supporting this Budget means you are complicit in the continued repression. The 13 who stood up are heroes.

18. In part 2 we will discuss some details of Muhyi's ridiculous budget that finds support from Anwar Ibrahim and other stupidos.

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Masaalah Ekonomi Malaysia.

1. Penggunaan pendapatan negara kasar(kdnk) untuk menilai ekonomi kita menyampaikan kita pada konklusi-konklusi yang tidak betul. Dalam bahasa Inggeris dipanggil GDP.

2. Penggunaan GDP menyembunyikan konsentrasi kekayaan negara dalam tangan 20% teratas. 20% teratas mengusai 64% kekayaan negara. Golongan tengah menguasai mungkin 30% kekayaan. Manakala golongan terbawah 20% menguasai 5.% kekayaan.

3. Di kalangan 20% teratas kita tidak nampak penguasaan olih keluarga-keluarga. Goh Tong, Kwek, Arumugam Syed Mokhtar, Liew Kee Sin dll.

4. Kita tidaklah menyarankan perampasan kekayaan mereka tapi kita bolih mempengaruhi dimana mereka berbelanja dan melabur.

5. Ertinya sebagai dasar yang sengaja, kita mesti mengadakan premis-premis perbelanjaan dan pusat-pusat pelaburan di pedesaan.

6. Kita tidak iri hati mereka kaya dari kita tapi kita marah jika kekayaan tersebut diperolehi melalui penindasan dan pemusnahan alam.

7. Kerana konsentrasi kekayaan semestinya dicapai melalui penindasan dalam pelbagai bentuk. Perbedaan pendapan, pembungunan antara desa dan bandar, perniagaan dan pertanian dll.

8. Sebab itu kita mesti mengenyahkan segala bentuk penindasan. Ini untuk mengurangkan konsentrasi kekeyaan.

9. Perniagaan milik keluarga juga tidak diurus secara profesyional. Kesan nya ialah ekonomi kita tidak mencapai potensi yang lebih tinggi. Ia memberi kesan pula pada pengagihan kekayaan.

10. Keterbelakangan kemajuan luar bandar yang mengakibatkan perbedaan kekayaan, menghakis kemajuan Malaysia. Pemimpin kita bercakap mengenai kelembapan kemajuan luar bandar tapi kurang melakukan sesuatu.

11. Kegiatan mencari sewa atau rent seeking menghakis kemajuan kita. Kegiatan ini tidak mencipta kekayaan baru. Ia berlaku terutama dalam hartanah dan lesen-lesen yang diberi kerajaan.

12. Berkait rapat dengan kegiatan rent seeking ialah kegiatan mendapat monopoli. Yakni seorang penjual saja. Ramai peniaga menjadi kaya raya sebab mendapat lesen atau monopoli dari kerajaan.

13. Leraikan segala pemonopolian. Petronas, LLN Astro LPN dll. Nama boleh kekal tapi entiti nya mesti dipecah pecahkan. Setiap merekw mesti berfungsi sebagai profit centre yang berbeda.

14. Rasuah atau korapsi adalah masaalah besar dalam negara kita. Kita tahu apa itu korapsi. Yakni suatu bentuk jinayah kriminal oleh mereka yang berkuasa atau pertubuhan atau mencabul kuasa untuk mendapat imbuhan atau faedah peribadi.

15. Rasuah menyebabkan orang-orang yang tidak berbakat jadi pemimpin. Rasuah menyekat sumber-sumber disalurkan pada tempatnya.

16. Terlalu bergantung kepada pemberian kerajaan. Ini menghalang kemunculan peniaga tahan lasak.

17. Terlalu bergantung kepada sumber ekonomi yang boleh berkurangan - logam-logam dan minyak serta pertanian yang tertaklok kepada manipulasi pasaran.

18. Prodakviti pertanian yang rendah, kurang kepelbagaian pertanian dan kurang perhatian pada sekuriti pemakanan.

19. Pelaburan yang terlalu cost conscious. Ini menghalang pelaburan yang berani.

20. Kurang R&D dalam negara. Ini menyekat perjumpaan produk dan kaedah-kaedah baru.

21. Pemusatan kuasa yang mencengkam dalam tangan PM dan terlalu banyak pemerintahan melalui dikri.

22. Perdangan yang terlalu caucasian centric. Kurang perdagangan dengan negara Islam, Indonesia dan China.

23. Demikian kita melihat beberapa masaalan terencatnya ekonomi Malaysia. Kita tidak menghuraikan masaalah-masaalah tersebut.

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