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Sakmongkol ak 47

Thursday 26 July 2012

Kedah: Losers and Victors

The UMNO strategists in its war room deserved to get Oscars for their crowning clowning performance. We are kept hilariously amused.  A few years ago, it was the 1 finger in everything- 1malaysia, 1klinik, kedai 1malaysia, etc.  earlier on, Malaysians puked at the alphabet soup- NKRA, ETP,PDP, GTP. Then it was one million dreams, one thousand hopes leading to, Janji ditepati.
A few days ago, I wrote, the PM doesn’t have to play hide and seek whether a bonus for civil servants is expected. I said it will definitely come. So it did, but when I heard the PM say- kita nak bonus raya ketidak? salivating and expecting a rapturous response like a cheerleader does- that shows he has no class at all.
But then, that is expected of someone who solves problems by paying his way through. Can we stomach his indulgent ways? After announcing the bonus he says as expected- this is proof of the government’s sincerity. Then, likewise the Selangor government proves its sincerity by giving water free up to a certain level, is more sincere in refusing to let Syabas fleece the people, sincere in also giving Selangor civil servants bonuses. That is also further proof that if you manage the finances carefully, state governments can give bonuses. Let’s see if any BN managed states can give its civil servants bonuses.
We can go on. The ability of the Penang state government in allocating RM62 million a year for Islam in that state must be proof of the state government’s sincerity. Correspondingly, the Negeri Sembilan’s ability to provide only RM10 million a year proves its insincerity. The Kedah government’s ability to increase revenue from the timber and forestry sector must be proof of its efficiency and corruption free governance. The Kelantan government’s achievement in repaying all federal debts must be proof of its financial probity as opposed to UMNO’s profligacy.
After pulling all the stops, scare mongering and other alarming and ominous stories what do they resort to? Got to have some intellectual respectability to its now fast disappearing legitimacy. It has called in some academicians to bolster its standing. On one fine day, the professors are assembled and directed to give good accreditations to UMNO. What a pathetic move.
One associate professor says BN has a chance to recapture Kedah and among 3 research subjects, Mukhriz son of Mahathir is the preferred choice as Kedah MB. Who are the research subjects? All 3 are UMNO personalities- Mukhriz who can’t even compete with the lamppost in terms of personality, Ahmad Bashah whose highest qualification is that he is an old friend of Najib and one who doesn’t even have MCE qualifications and the former MB of Kedah who forfeited much larger revenue from the state’s timber industry when he led the state. Hello- you confine your choice among the 3 and ask respondents to identify whom they liked. Of course they will prefer Mukhriz who is young and horny as they are and probably as horny as the associate professor from UUM.
We must congratulate BN for its unbounded optimism.  How did they come to that spurious conclusion?
It seems the UMNO punahsihats and punai2sihat held a round table discussion or forum and to arrive at that conclusion, they called in tenured professors from public universities. Another professor, reported as a distinguished media practitioner( how come we never get to read professors write blogs so that maybe we can spar with them?) produced the conclusion that BN will recapture these two states. He said that BN has carried so many initiatives under the exemplar leadership of the bodek days are over PM.
Before we go on, can Malaysians believe bodek days are over? Najib can’t sleep if he doesn’t get adulations and ululations. He is an aristocrat for God sake- bodeking is his nectar of life.  
Obviously, this professor has never been a member of any political organization and by the way he came out with his prognosis has never indulged directly in the thrust and parry of real world politics. So we can only attach some academic curiosity as to his conclusions but no more than that.
Since Kedah was mentioned as one of the 2 states BN is said to be able to capture, let’s humor this good professor.  Inadvertently, BN has resigned to the fact that it can never capture Penang and Kelantan. There goes the PM’s boast of making it a 14-0 win.
When Dr Mahathir went to Kedah a few months back, the good doctor invited kedah UMNO chiefs to attend an arranged meeting. He asked the chiefs to support his son’s bid to become the next MB. Not all came and those who didn’t come were furious demanding to know who is this guy Mahathir trying to pull his weight around? That indicates the likelihood of internal strife that can only weaken UMNO. The PM’s man in Kedah, his old friend Dato Basah wasn’t amused at being bypassed and so we can expect the usual backstabbing and betrayals from UMNO cliques in the state.
Where will Mukhriz stand as ADUN?  It does not matter as he will have to vacate his parliamentary seat of Jerlun and a new person will stand as parliamentary candidate. Once he vacates his seat, UMNO will lose that seat. Mukhriz won in 2008 because the father came along and the PAS people held back from unleashing everything they got out of respect for a former PM. UMNO? They didn’t respect Mahathir as he was not able to even become a delegate in his UMNO division. That’s how the cookie crumbles in UMNO.
If either Mahfuz or PKR’s Saifudin stand in Pokok Sena, UMNO is doomed. In Kuala Kedah, UMNO is likely to offer the affable Lat Shahriman as candidate.  He has better watch out for the UMNO Brutuses in the division. UMNO’s hold in that seat is tenuous and a 5%vote swing is all that is needed to ensure defeat for Lat Shahriman. UMNO’s only remaining stronghold is Langkawi.




What was Kedah’s vote swing to the opposition in 2008? It was around 12%. Let’s grant UMNO a regain of 5%. That still leaves Pakatan with a 7% credit. UMNO is left most probably with one single parliamentary seat and maybe that’s in Langkawi.
Why should the good people of Kedah give the state to BN only to be faced with the prospects of battling a new government in Putrajaya? They are more practical than the simpletons UMNO sees them as.  


Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 10:01  

That sounds like a cautious forecast.

But what if they take the EC people to boogie and do the woogie with attractive figures? But it's a small state tho not unimportant.

How about N9, Terengganu & Melaka?

Mr Bojangles 26 July 2012 at 10:42  

UMNO it will be for Langkawi.

Ask the imported denizens of that Bangladesh hamlet facing the sea. They will be so grateful for being allowed to fish in Malaysian waters and to cast their ballots accordingly.

bruno,  26 July 2012 at 10:49  

Dato,first of all the states under PR will be very difficult to fall back to the Umno/BN.Even Selangor with Azmin and his faction creating all the problems for Khalid cannot help Umno.Soon Azmin will be put on a leash.And if Azmin is smart he better start getting into line,or he might fall by the roadside with nobody offering to pick him up.

Kedah will still stay with PR.And if Mukriz thinks that he wants to be MB,since he cannot be a full minister,he better start getting serious.He might end up by being makan sendiri,in other words unemployed.By of course it will not hurt him financially as he has hundreds of millions stashed away.Only his ego will be really hurt.To hide his embarassment he might even have to borrow Sammy's wig.

As usual PM Najib is trying hard to buy the civil servants votes by pretext of giving them Raya bonus.Only when the GE is coming he is so generous in giving the people's money back to them.And also only by bits,letting his cronies keep the lion's share.

This time around although Najib knows that throwing money around, like the white Santa will not gurantee him and his BN a victory at the polls,he is still willing to roll the dice.Afterall what has he and Umno/BN to lose.It is the people's money in the first place.They are just giving a tiny faction of it back,that is if lady luck is not on their side.

Penang,Selangor,Kedah and Kelantan are safely in the hands of PR.Perak will fall back to the PR.So will Negri Sembilan.Sabah will be an additional bonus,as Umno Sabah will so be imploding if it hasn't imploded yet.Maybe the sabotaging by Umno warlords will sent Pahang falling like a house of cards too.

The signs are all out there for everyone to see.That Umno/Bn will get smacked left,right and center by the rakyat this coming GE.Vote buying and cheating will not save Umno/BN this time around.My eagle friends are offering odds of 1/5 for a BN trouncing.

OneMalaysian,  26 July 2012 at 10:50  

Dear Sakmongkol

“ … if you manage the finances carefully, state governments can give bonuses.”

Selangor, Penang and Kedah are probably running budget surpluses, so if they reward state civil servants that’s OK, provided work performance also improves.

However, we cannot agree with what Najib wants to do. We cannot applaud him for throwing money at civil servants in a blatant attempt at vote buying. The Federal Government has a debt load of RM460 billion, and rising. This is our collective debt. The BN government is merely giving away money that it has not got. Since it is running a budget deficit, any money that it gives away must be borrowed. What irresponsibility!

The Greece government did this for years and see how the Greeks are suffering – civil servants have to be sacked, and others have their pay and benefits cut. And it is begging its EU neighbours for help. This is from a proud people who gave the west civilization and the world the concept of democracy.

We don’t want the same Greek tragedy to befall us. Getting rid of BN and Najib are the only sure ways to save us from a similar fate.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 12:07  

If BN is so sure of the support which they can get to enable them to win and regain the 2/3 majority, it would have called for election already.

These dungus who called themselves professors are a disgrace to the profession. To me, they are just a bunch of clowns clowning around making the millions of rakyat laugh their ass off with their stupid remarks.

Wise up dungus !!! rakyat are not stupid as to believe even a single word that you had uttered @#%$.

Scorpion,  26 July 2012 at 12:44  

I thought Kedah will be back into BN as what the analyst said but not Penang and Kelantan.Kedah PAD should have an internal feud snf bought that Felda shares.Glad they sold it back .Best og luck.

Rahul 26 July 2012 at 13:17  

I am confused about the table that you have given for Selangor and Kedah. You say that 5% has gone back to UMNO but you still give less seat to UMNO then last time. So in the table when you say 3% swing are you saying UMNO will lose another 3% on top of 2008 or will there be 3% swing on top of 2004.I am quite confused with your calculations. Thanks a lot for helping me understand.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 13:17  

Notice that those 'academicians' making such glowing remarks were largely Assoc Professors i.e those who lack the credentials to become full professors. Expect instant upward mobility to full Prof for them after this 'remarkable' findings. No wonder our local unis rankings keep perpetually diving south.

"Cakap Besar Buat (PRU) Takut"

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 13:54  

Western governments take action against Third World kleptocrats:

Phua Kai Lit

Patrick 26 July 2012 at 13:54  

The cash giveaway was expected by all. This has been going on annually since we can remember. So again, its nothing unusual, except that in the context of GE, it smacks as bribery. No two ways about it. You can hear the collective groan of Malaysia when this was announced. But feedback from the street is pretty expected as well.

The collective agreement on the street is that the money given away is the citizen's own money. They will certainly take the money with glee as afterall, festive season is around the corner. But the sentiment remains anti govt. Its a simple case of 'its my money anyway they are giving away'. In fact, many are asking if more free money are coming their way as they also would like to get as much 'free money' before the govt collapse in the next election. Its the same sentiment as most UMNO/BN minister/cronies, but on a smaller scale. People's argument is practical in that if the ministers and cronie can get free govt money, that is rightly tax payers money, the tax payers themselves are entitled to their own money from the govt. Interesting as it is, Najib is actually hastening NUMNO/BN's demise with every step he makes, every word he says and every breadth he takes...

People have already started comparing the NFC RM 250M theft, the Ampang LRT plunder, the RM 9B Langat2 plant, MAS free fall, etc, etc, to their measly RM 500 'free money'. University students are asking the govt, 'why not erase our student debts' instead of mere RM 500 ang pow? When DPM and cronies are pushing to get quick RM 9B from the entire Malaysia for their own benefit, in the guise of helping Selangor, which also is where Putrajaya and their massive cronies live. Question on the street is 'Why are we who are living in Seremban/Ipoh/Penang help pay for Selangor's water problem'?? And then they realise that Najib as PM/FM has no control over this issue and over his DPM...and HM and Law Minister..and virtually everybody else in the cabinet....

So does UMNO Kedah or anywhere else even respect Najib, except when he gives away money/contracts? Tony Pua or Rafizi by comparison, makes better FM any day of the year, except perhaps after 21/12/2012. Too many factions within UMNO is UMNO's implosion. TDM may have to spend billions to ensure his spineless spawn is selected as MB, IF and only IF, UMNO wins back Kedah. Its such a small state, that for TDM to throw money for his balding spawn's political ambition, it will be immediately picked up by other UMNO losers and the Kedah electorate that perhaps, he will get lynched.

Despite the inherent weakness of current Kedah admin, they have done far better than past UMNO administration. No two ways about it. Corruption in a state where Islam is dominantly practised is not a good idea. Not that the money wont be taken, but because too many new Benzs, BMWs, Porsches will definitely attract a lot of jealous attention...

Practically, Kedah will remain opposition....

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 15:28  

Small brains are never great!
Great brains are never small!

The ones we have running this country certainly do not have any by the way they speak & act!
Surely this world knows what they are made up of!

FOLKS - professors are all 'PAPER TIGERS" they steal other peoples research work and add some more nonsense & rubbish, that is about all!

Their little world is books and libraries, they know nothing of the real world!

We in this country have many Prof KANG-KONG, why becos they bought all their doctorate & scrolls!

Cronies are everywhere! They have to back-up & agree to their bosses for otherwise they will be unemployed, nobody wants a KANG-KONG professor outside Malaysia!

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 16:41  

Immediately after GE12, UMNO and BeEnd came up with Post-Mortem on why they lost badly but my guess is that that data has gone missing now. They are digging their own grave and repeat same mistakes. Recipe for losing the GE.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 17:28  

Salam Dato', 15 - 0 lagi kali ini, kita pukul 0 Dato' biar BN tahu siapa PR. Kebanyakkan Professor...pandai cakap saja, bila bagi dia buat berterabur semua dibuatnya...dah banyak kali deal dgn Prof nih.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 19:26  

A Singaporean friend once told me; "there is really no incentive for Singaporean policemen to take bribe as they are getting three months bonus contractually. "
I am thinking if Singapore ; a tiny nation with no natural resources can give three-month contractual bonus for their police personnel, why not Malayskia, a country with so much natural resources ?
I can only conclude that it is due to corruption, abuse of power and mismanagement.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 20:04  

To be safe, its only prudent to press EC to clean up the Electoral Roll or face with charge of Treason should Pakatan wins. Hopefully the charge will jolt the top 2 in EC to do the right thing. Not forgetting the Home Minster, lackadaisical approval of citizenship is also an act of treason and the Director of National registration Department. Thus, in total 4 people will be face with Treason and maxium penalty shall be imposed. Thus, those 4 better do the right thing now. The Public will not be forgiving and will demand Justice. Obviously Sri Gading MP's mindless recommendation for Ambiga to be hanged is applicable to these 4, and its only logical.

Anonymous,  26 July 2012 at 21:33  

hmm odds of 1/5 for a BN trouncing. That's encouraging news.

The civil servants should realize that they want to do what is consciously right that is their part of tax contribution together with major tax contributions are managed in the highest competence,
integrity, and prudence for the betterment of the nation.

The effects of lack of prudence and integrity was what triggered the euro zone crisis. We Asians, should maintain our time-tested management of finance with prudence.

PK must assure the civil servants that their jobs are safe, but there will be retraining on the go through mentoring whereby the management will no longer sit in their cozy chairs, face - booking with ahem, for A FEW start dreaming about golfing / shopping after punching in at 11 am... On the contrary, they will often be at the front-line working together as a team to increase efficiency in serving the rakyat.

The civil employees including the teachers, PDRM, ATM, across the board will get the support which will make them feel more satisfied with themselves of doing great jobs at work. We will have our own talented Malaysians to conduct top- quality regular training at their respective desks / work stations. Everything done with like a morning walk in the park within 20 mins max, perhaps. GOSH No blabbering or file throwing by bullies.

But the niceness and smiles is added into professionalism like in the west. Professionalism doesn't have to be on " triple strength panadols " looking, honest.

Having experienced how courteous Petronas staff ( especially those who are very well-trained ) including the Citibank staff are ? ... the cool politeness which includes pleasant voice tone, its clarity, appropriate body language, the cheerfulness to serve, the excellent knowledge of their services to every customer even on days when you dress down, you come away feeling impressed, no ? can't remember ? ai say.

We are getting there, nothing good and worthwhile, really good 200 times - is not impossible. Certainly tak boleh segala yang Malaysia boleh, boleh segala yang tak boleh.

Anonymous,  27 July 2012 at 01:34  

When it comes to PR, it is undeniable that Najib scores top marks. An A++ !

It is unprecedented that several Chinese guests had been invited to enjoy having meaningful meals with Muslims during the break of fast. This time at a simple surau in Pandan minus the pomp and pretentiousness as befitting the holy Bulan Ramadhan ( The Star, Thur July 26 ). Great thing Rosmah was nowhere to be seen. DS Najib did it alone as the rest of the ministers are never interested hence he will go down in the history of Malaysia as the Prime Minister who has attempted his utmost to create affirmations for the majority of the Malaysian Chinese and Indians delayed by decades.

Two nicest Arab expatriate friends of mine mentioned that Najib is really a simple man who seems most at ease to be with the simple rakyat. I have to agree with them and mentally as well, but there is a huge list of unresolved issues at the back of the mind. Wish our Indian brethren and our PK Malay, Chinese and Indian support team members were there.

PK will do the inclusiveness and affirmations as their first nature to build a better Malaysia together for all.

led street light 27 July 2012 at 18:13  

Really all the information are really valuable for all and i am getting some great knowledge to read your blogs thanks for sharing such a nice post...

Led Bulb

Anonymous,  29 July 2012 at 15:41  

correct-- ah jib said in sibu buy election--u help me -- I help you?? this is OUR PM talking-- no wonder our nation is in deep trouuble-- economically n financially>>

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