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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Thursday 2 August 2012

Not all Joy in Johor


I have deliberately left out analyzing my home state Pahang for the moment. Let’s leave the best to later. I want to do a Johor analysis.
Now Johor has always been touted as the bastion of UMNO. The Johor Malays seem to have a irrational obsession with UMNO. Since UMNO was said to be born on the steps of the Johor Istana, Johor is considered as the natural home for UMNO. It’s nearly invincible.Johor Malays appear to accept the natural order of things, i.e. UMNO is their protector.
But is it so?
Each morning, the Johor Malay after the subuh prayers will have his cup of coffee with his breakfast. What does he read first over all else? He reads Utusan Malaysia- the propaganda mouthpiece of UMNO. The dispossessed, the downtrodden Malay masses appeared enamored with UMNO.
Sometimes I think Johor Malays suffer from a peculiar political masochism. The more they are oppressed, humiliated and bullied, the more they are drawn towards UMNO. I did a ceramah at Kampung Melayu Majidee once. the place was one of the many depressed areas in Johor. yet for some time until the 2008 elections, Malays there supported UMNO. didn't this state produce a former MB who sold everything in Johor except the air and cemetery land, I asked?
But what was the figure we read during the last elections? There was a 14% swing to the opposition. What has happened to that swing? It is increasing and getting stronger. This has got the MB worried intimating to UMNO division heads in one meeting, that he expects at least 9 parliamentary seats and up to 16 state seats will fall to the opposition.
That means he has not discount fully the swing to the opposition acknowledging that at best, with all the efforts and the bribery that UMNO has carried out, UMNO has managed to claim back only some 5%. That will still leave around 9% swing with the opposition. With that conservative assumption, 9 parliamentary seats are indeed in jeopardy.







(a)
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT



(b)

2004 SUPPORT
FOR PAKATAN
(% of voters)
(c)
2008 SUPPORT FOR PR
(% of voters)


(d)
Vote swing for PR
(d/c)

(e)
EXPECTED SUPPORT FOR PR
(% of voters)

(F)
PROJECTED WINNER



(G)
1
SEGAMAT
40
44
10
53
PR
2
SEKIJANG
27
30
11
39

3
LABIS
34
40
18
49
PR
4
PAGOH
25
28
12
37

5
LEDANG
33
40
21
49
PR
6
BAKRI
37
50
35
59
PR
7
MUAR
35
41
17
50
PR
8
PARIT SULONG
30
32
7
41

9
AIR HITAM
22
23
5
32

10
SRI GADING
26
30
15
39

11
BATU PAHAT
30
37
23
46
PR
12
SINPANG RENGAM
29
33
14
42

13
KLUANG
36
44
22
53
PR
14
SEMBRONG
22
26
18
35

15
MERSING
22
23
5
31

16
TENGGARA
18
20
11
29

17
KOTA TINGGI
14
14
0
-

18
PENGERANG
-
-
-
-

19
TEBRAU
27
33
22
41

20
PASIR GUDANG
27
33
22
42

21
JOHOR BHARU
23
28
22
37

22
PULAI
26
31
19
40

23
GELANG PATAH
31
41
32
50
PR
24
KULAI
35
38
9
47
PR
25
PONTIAN
24
26
8
35

26
TANJUNG PIAI
26
31
19
40









My own estimates indicate that PR can win outright 9 parliamentary seats.  The seats currently held by UMNO/BN but can be dicey include  6 more seats of:-
1.     TANJUNG PIAI
2.     GELANG PATANG
3.     PULAI
4.     PASIR GUDANG TEBRAU
5.     SIMPANG RENGGAN
6.     PARIT SULONG
Really then, the number of parliamentary seats that could end with PR will be between 9 to 15 seats.
What does that make Johor? It is no longer the bastion of UMNO.
What about Johor Bharu which has a sizeable Chinese population who could prove to be a boon to PR? It depends on who is the UMNO candidate. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will switch to PR. Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand only if the UMNO people stokes his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim. He himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.
The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by the Chairman of UDA, Nurjazlan Mohamad Rahmat. A decent fellow but has recently been the victim of UMNO’s habit of practising infanticide. It kills off its young talent. When Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the PUdu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of UMNO warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money.

17 comments:

bruno,  2 August 2012 at 11:21  

Dato,if Umno Johore is going to lose so many parliamentary seats,then where is Muhyiddin, Hishamudin and Chuah Jr going to stand.Maybe they should move to Kedah.There maybe Dr Mahathir might have a special prescription to save their skin.

loveMyKris 2 August 2012 at 11:55  

Dato, great to read your analysis by individual states. Keep up the good work.

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 13:02  

Dato, I look forward to reading your analysis each day on the various states. And that lifts my spirit because there is hope after all. I also hope that DAP will put you up as a candidate because the country need leaders who have substance to catapult us forward after "gostan gostan" by the BN.

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 13:03  

good n well analysed article but as a senior citizen who voted since 1974--its tough to unseat BN N CO but not impossible>> BN has all the tricks n resources n media to spin// only a miracle can seat BN N CO.. sabah n sarawak are keys to PUTRAJAYA.. of course i agree that BN is panicking now .. vote for CHANGE__ UBAh LAH

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 13:31  

Dato,

I am still trying to figure out your analysis:

Let's take Labis for example. If there was 18% swing votes from 2004 election and during 2008 election and BN still wins, how can PR win the next election if BN takes back 5% of the swing votes and PR gets the remaining 13% swing votes?

It would be different if you are saying that there is an additional increase of 13% votes to PR without any votes swinging back to BN.

2008 : BN - 13,658 votes PR - 9,564 votes. Total voted : 24,038.

So BN got 56.8% and PR 39.7%.

So in Labis, in order for PR to win, there must be ADDITIONAL 10% of total votes (2403 votes) without any votes swinging back to BN. If BN were to get back 5% swing votes and PR get 13%, the nett swing votes is 8%, not enough to unseat BN. With additional 2403 (10%) votes, PR will get 9564 + 2403 =11,964 votes and BN will get 13,658 - 2403 = 11,255 votes.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 13:33  

Dato, your analysis is a bit one sided....the truth is probably in the middle.

Let's see your Pahang!

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 14:30  

Sak!
you may be right afterall! Years back chinese were afraid to open up and no one could discussed CSL sexcapades in jOHORE..MCA were like goons there and we chinese in the middle and north used to look down on these umno lovers.....
Now i guess being bold is the way for them now...and lets hope this CSL dick and son eat humble pie soon!

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 15:51  

Dear Dato Sak

I hope that the DAP will put you up as one of the candidates for
a Pahang MP seat in the upcoming GE.

Not the PM's Pekan but perhaps
one of the predominantly Malay
parliamentary constituencies with a progressive history e.g. Temerloh?

Phua Kai Lit (anak Pahang dan anak Kuantan)

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 16:50  

You mentioned several times that internally within UMNO there is also pessimism but this is somehow not reflected. For if true shouldnt we be seeing massive capital flight by them?

Money talks

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 17:23  

to the guy who said Dato's analysis is one sided...

are you sure? at the risk of sounding like a sycophant.. i must say... what dato has said is highly reflective of the ground... i would not discount his analysis..

dont forget.. he is in direct contact with the oracle of syed putra... daim zainuddins alter ego.

Anonymous,  2 August 2012 at 18:24  

" i would not discount his analysis.."

There are many analysis and predictions out there....I hope Dato's is right and we don't have to wait another 5 years for a change.

nahraf 2 August 2012 at 18:37  

Dato, FGV shares has fallen below RM 5.00 today, what is your take on that?

rance,  3 August 2012 at 00:50  

Dear Dato'Sak,
In your latest articles u seem to be v bullish about the opposition. Iam for it but the reality is - will the election commission act professionally?
How about the newly circumcised citizen,n their effect on GE13.We did not have them in GE12 n EC was on diff footing.

bruno,  3 August 2012 at 01:22  

Dato,Najib is saying because the people had Bersih 2.0,Uncle Jib has the right to do BRIM 2.0

Coming from a man who wants to be PM for the next 5 yrs,it is true what people said.That Najib was born with a golden spoon in his mouth.

Anonymous,  3 August 2012 at 07:18  

Yes, Johor has been traditionally BN all the way as all of us know.You cannot rely on totally chinese votes for DAP/PR. Will the UMNO laden supporter vote for the dwindlng PKR anf Johor is never a hunting ground for PAS unlke Kedah.Overall it is difficult to unseat BN under Najib according to certain undependant analysis like KITA Association of Profesdor Negara.Any comment ?.

Scorpion

Anonymous,  3 August 2012 at 15:03  

"the newly circumcised citizen" - quote of the year


Seriously, is all this analysis taking into consideration the 2 golden reasons why BN will win 2/3 majority in the upcoming elections?

1. Najib never loses what he sets to win (has he ever? )

2. The EC is going to use every trick in the book to beat the opposition

Ahmad Syafiq 5 August 2012 at 16:44  

I don't really agree with the 9% swing to PR for all places, because that 9% is discounting the fact that different constituencies have different characteristics (urban/non-urban, access to alternative media, race, etc...). I'm currently doing a limited analysis for the upcoming GE13 (only at parliament level), but it has been stagnant recently due to work commitments, so I've only covered Perlis, Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu and parts of Perak. I try to be as unbiased as possible in making my predictions, taking into consideration issues at hand, as well as the access to unbiased info based on the demographics. But of course, there's nothing better than scouting the ground, which you trump me on this one by a million miles. I can only gauge limited sentiments in the urban areas around me (among friends, family). But I can safely say that most urban areas will still be with PR, unless they self-destruct between now and GE13.

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