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Sakmongkol ak 47

Monday, 13 August 2012

People of Bukit Katil, Melaka- Let us remit our own Justice.

I was in Melaka yesterday night for an iftar( breaking of Ramadhan fast) in Bukit Katil. This is fasting month. Usually Muslims are more focused on soul searching and  intensification of religiosity. One would expect, political events are placed on the backburner.  I was pleasantly surprised.
After iftar and the obligatory prayers and tarawih prayers, PAS bukit Katil organized a ceramah. Why should PAS do a ceramah in the holy month? Because the month of ramadhan does not prescribe a cessation of political activities. And because the attacks from BN from its huge media industrial complex do not cease. Pas and PR have no control over the media. They can’t place a big advertisement in the mainstream media, incorporating a pompous declaration by some running dogs that they are telling the truth.
The truth, like Mulder says- is out there, not in the mainstream media. The truth is in the underbellies of society NOT in a setting with all the creature comforts and free flowing intoxicants.
The turnout at the ceramah was fantastic. I joined the newest PAS member Tamrin Tun Ghafar and PAS deputy president, the irrepressible Abang Mat Sabu for the ceramah session. About 1000 people attended the ceramah,  commendable for a place in Bukit Katil and one held during the fasting month.
Bukut katil is the parliamentary seat in Melaka which has 4 states seats. one of these, Bukit Baru is the DUN seat of Ali Rustam, the chief Minister. The CM’s poster is ubiquitous. They are everywhere- on the lamp posts, billboards, banners etc.
Bukit Katil is a parliamentary seat, which can be gotten by PR and Bukit Katil can prove to be the waterloo for Ali Rustam.  Never mind his untiring efforts to remain a high profile figure and all that. His own constituency has 60% Malays and 40% non-Malays. If the trend follows like elsewhere in Malaysia, the PR candidate can hope to secure 80% of the non-Malay votes. If he/she can secure 30% of the Malay votes, Ali Rustam bites dust in Bukit Baru.
There are around 13,000 participating voters in Bukit Baru this time around. Out of that almost 8000 are expected to be Malays and 5,000 non Malays. If the PR can get 4000 non Malay votes and 2500 Malay votes, Ali Rustam is a goner.
The number of private housing projects in Bukit Baru has increased in the last 4 years and most of the homeowners and businesses are taken up by non-Malays. In Bukit Baru, PAS must deliver the Malay votes. Judging from the attendance yesterday, PAS is on stream to deliver the crucial 30% Malay votes in Bukit Baru.

Election results 2008.
The opposition would likely retain their seats in Bachang and Ayer Keroh. These seats were wrestled from BN in 2008. That means the opposition had to overcome the handicap of BN’s incumbency. If the PR emerged victorious, the victories must have been driven by convictions for only that element can overcome BN’s incumbency.
Ali Rustam is the CM. in Bukit Baru he managed to secure a majority of 2700 votes. If he has to fight and his opponent in 2008 got a credible 5000 votes, then voters are not cowed and overawed by his stature as CM and proved they are not gullible when suffocated by Ali Rustam’s achievements. Because people are realizing that his achievements were earned on the back of an increasing debt to the federal government and a dwindling cash reserves.
Ayer Molek with a majority of Malays is the only safe seat for the BN in Bukit Katil Parliamentary seat. Maybe Ali Rustam is thinking of going there?
Bukit Katil looks set to go the PR.


bruno,  13 August 2012 at 10:10  

Dato,if Tamrin Ghafar stands in Bukit Katil and wins the parliamentary seat,there is a good chance that Ali Rustam will lose his state seat.Ali Rustam is popular and famous for all the white elephants his state gomen have built.Other than the white elephants there is nothing he can boast of.

In this coming GE,the people are thisty for change.Therefore anything is possible.Even DPM Muhyidin's people are out searching for a safe seat for him.If a big fish like Muhyidin is not safe,then Ali Rustam should be more vulnerable.

Even state's such as Sabah,once a safe deposit state with the most illegals turned legals,is now on the verge of falling to the opposition.

Penang,Selangor,Kelantan and Kedah will remain with PR.Perak will go back to PR.Negri Sembilan will also go to PR this coming GE.And a very good chance of Sabah and Perlis falling to PR too.

The only problem is the closely fought paliamentary seats.This Moothy guy will be a problem for the PR.He got a free pass home because he has a deal with Najib's boys.That is the best way to read about this guy coming home.Or else he will be licking his red,black and purple bruises in Kamunting now.

Anonymous,  13 August 2012 at 17:33  

Can voters get rid of the no. 1 racist man in Melaka with the initial of A.R.

Anonymous,  13 August 2012 at 18:27  

My recollection of Tamrin is of an MP who had trouble being reelected in his own UMNO division, even whilst his dad was still the DPM.

The grouse against him then was that he never showed in his division except when elections were due. He was reported to have compensated for his absence with an abundant supply of cash for the party delegates.

Granted, that was then.

While Tamrin's move away from UMNO is to be applauded, I hope it is not so he can contest on a PAS ticket in the coming GE.

He has had his chance. His candidacy will be a step backward.

Anonymous,  14 August 2012 at 18:59  

according to the forecast based on 222 parliament seats- PR is likely to take 120 seats with 25 to 30 coming from east malaysia n 100 to 110 in west malaysia-- PR will be on the way to pUTRAJAYA-- anew dawn n anew MALAYSIA-- jom ubah

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