People of Bukit Katil, Melaka- Let us remit our own Justice.

I was in Melaka yesterday night for an iftar( breaking of Ramadhan fast) in Bukit Katil. This is fasting month. Usually Muslims are more focused on soul searching and  intensification of religiosity. One would expect, political events are placed on the backburner.  I was pleasantly surprised.

After iftar and the obligatory prayers and tarawih prayers, PAS bukit Katil organized a ceramah. Why should PAS do a ceramah in the holy month? Because the month of ramadhan does not prescribe a cessation of political activities. And because the attacks from BN from its huge media industrial complex do not cease. Pas and PR have no control over the media. They can’t place a big advertisement in the mainstream media, incorporating a pompous declaration by some running dogs that they are telling the truth.

The truth, like Mulder says- is out there, not in the mainstream media. The truth is in the underbellies of society NOT in a setting with all the creature comforts and free flowing intoxicants.

The turnout at the ceramah was fantastic. I joined the newest PAS member Tamrin Tun Ghafar and PAS deputy president, the irrepressible Abang Mat Sabu for the ceramah session. About 1000 people attended the ceramah,  commendable for a place in Bukit Katil and one held during the fasting month.

Bukut katil is the parliamentary seat in Melaka which has 4 states seats. one of these, Bukit Baru is the DUN seat of Ali Rustam, the chief Minister. The CM’s poster is ubiquitous. They are everywhere- on the lamp posts, billboards, banners etc.

Bukit Katil is a parliamentary seat, which can be gotten by PR and Bukit Katil can prove to be the waterloo for Ali Rustam.  Never mind his untiring efforts to remain a high profile figure and all that. His own constituency has 60% Malays and 40% non-Malays. If the trend follows like elsewhere in Malaysia, the PR candidate can hope to secure 80% of the non-Malay votes. If he/she can secure 30% of the Malay votes, Ali Rustam bites dust in Bukit Baru.

There are around 13,000 participating voters in Bukit Baru this time around. Out of that almost 8000 are expected to be Malays and 5,000 non Malays. If the PR can get 4000 non Malay votes and 2500 Malay votes, Ali Rustam is a goner.

The number of private housing projects in Bukit Baru has increased in the last 4 years and most of the homeowners and businesses are taken up by non-Malays. In Bukit Baru, PAS must deliver the Malay votes. Judging from the attendance yesterday, PAS is on stream to deliver the crucial 30% Malay votes in Bukit Baru.

DUN	PR	BN	WINNER	MAJORITY
BACHANG	9237	8720	DAP	517
AYER KEROH	11309	8104	DAP	3205
BUKIT BARU	4936	7644	BN	2708
AYER MOLEK	3654	6433	BN	2779
PARLIAMENT	29217	30975	BN	1758

Election results 2008.

The opposition would likely retain their seats in Bachang and Ayer Keroh. These seats were wrestled from BN in 2008. That means the opposition had to overcome the handicap of BN’s incumbency. If the PR emerged victorious, the victories must have been driven by convictions for only that element can overcome BN’s incumbency.

Ali Rustam is the CM. in Bukit Baru he managed to secure a majority of 2700 votes. If he has to fight and his opponent in 2008 got a credible 5000 votes, then voters are not cowed and overawed by his stature as CM and proved they are not gullible when suffocated by Ali Rustam’s achievements. Because people are realizing that his achievements were earned on the back of an increasing debt to the federal government and a dwindling cash reserves.

Ayer Molek with a majority of Malays is the only safe seat for the BN in Bukit Katil Parliamentary seat. Maybe Ali Rustam is thinking of going there?

Bukit Katil looks set to go the PR.