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Sakmongkol ak 47

Monday 14 June 2010

The 10th Plan- waddling through the BS

Readers will have noticed that my previous post was entitled reading the 10th Malaysian plan. It was chosen deliberately. I wanted to distance myself from a point by point commentary. That is being done by more rigorous thinkers. Bloggers under the name E Theorist and Economics Malaysia are better equipped to deal with the issue. Wenger J Khairy is another blogger who can cut across the entire BS and tell it as it is. I shall step aside for them.

I have chosen to see it from the big picture. By big picture I mean, seeing the plan as a part of something bigger. The plan is an instrument to create a higher income Malaysia. In that context, the admonitions and screams of people like Perkasa are completely irrelevant and excluded.

Placing the plan in a contextual frame, allows me to discuss the plan expansively. Seeing the big picture allows me to treat the issue of Malay economics in terms of it being a part of creating a high income Malaysia. For example, the issue of NEPish content of future Malaysia Plans is no longer a priority since the overriding objective is to get to the level of PCI of USD15,000. Those people at Perkasa have not realized this, but they will be terribly disappointed.

Let us tackle the issue of Malay economics. I read that my old professor KAM Ariff who taught me International Economics in my second year at UM, giving a very critical assessment of the NEP or NEP in its re-hatched form. I am not going to steal his thunder- but I have written this point, a long time ago. These were stated in a number of essays on the subject.

What is the purpose of the 1oth Malaysia Plan? The overriding objective is to make Malaysia a high income economy. That is defined as having a PCI of USD15, 000. The problem can thus be stated as Malaysia's High Income Economy is a function of getting a PCI of USD 15,000. Agree?

Then our attention is directed to the issue of how to get the USD15k? The problem stated doesn't say anything about who gets the USD 15 k. it says just 15k. Who earns the 15k? Its just people- a concept. It doesn't distinguish between a Bumi or non Bumi. It's silent on this issue.

You see, the overriding objective stated in that way, right from the beginning, does not admit any differentiation of who gets the PCI of USD15,000. Or put it in another way, USD15, 000 is only achievable IFF (if and only if), the agent getting the USD15,000 is not broken down into a Chinese, Indian or Malay economic agent. It's just an economic agent, undifferentiated.

That immediately and at once, chucks out all those screaming by Perkasa out of the window and people like Ibrahim Ali and his intellectual spokesman- being made to look stupid.

I repeat ( in the spirit of Ibrahim Ali repeating his shit-speake 3 times)- the success of getting a PCI of USD 15,000 depends in NOT distinguishing who actually gets the USD15,000. So, no Bumiputera economics there.

The only way the so called Bumiputera 30% share of the economy is going to be achieved is for the government to do the same thing- confine bumiputera involvements among people like Sapura, Syed MOkhtar, IMdevelopment, other cronies. These people will be given economic largesse over and over again. Sapura gets oil and gas deals from PETRONAS, they get defense deals, they get these over and over again, Syed Mohtar gets to do bridges, railways, double tracking, ports and hear this, gets to supply tanks to MINDEF. These are the Bumiputeras who ride on the angst of the bumi lumpenproletariat.

UMNO must be going mad!

But Ibrahim Ali and his people don't understand economics. The concept of people in the equation is not differentiated. The 10th Malaysia Plan doesn't care who achieves the 15k.


Anonymous,  14 June 2010 at 09:45  

All it takes to achieve the PCI of USD15K is for a select few to make billions while the rest get pittance. When you average it out it the USD15K will still be achievable. But do the masses get to be rich? No way. Just the cronies will get to be super rich.
Pak Tua

Anonymous,  14 June 2010 at 10:11  

Ibrahim Ali understands nothing and knows nothing about economics. After all he just got a miserable diploma in MARA College. Not even a degree.

All he cares about is that magic figure - 30% -. As long as that figure appears in the 10MP he is happy.

The next best thing he does is to wave the keris and organize protests gathrings and pander to Malay gullibility, ignorance and racial bigotry.

Ibrahim Ali is a Malay crab and he want to pull down the other Malays down the cave.

Quiet Despair,  14 June 2010 at 10:26  

Yes Sak, those who can create the wealth for the nation's higher income economy, leave them be.

Pak Tua

I am happy if the likes of Shahrir of Sapura, Syed Miohtar et al get the riches.
At least the Malays get the benefits from their zakat and their foundations.
I wish the Govt can create more Bumiputra millionaires.
It should ne a work in progress to see Bumis entrepreneurs be top three wealthiest in future.
If I cant be rich, at least I can see my race be rich.

Ariff Sabri 14 June 2010 at 10:30  

quiet despair,

you mean, they are the only Malays who can create wealth? you will also mean, only sons of previous PMs can be PMs?
lets see these malays compete with other malays openly? no behind doors deals, etc.

Anonymous,  14 June 2010 at 10:55  

Dato SAK47

The PCI of US15K does not place us in the high income category. rather we are still in the middle income group. to be considered high income, our PCI should exceed US20K in current prices!

Second, I agree that the PCI measures the average per capita of the population, without differentiating the various ethnicn=c groups. But what is important also is the speread of the PCI. Do the 10MP programmes to achive the PCI target those programmes that will balance the urban-rural divide? this is a critical question. sinc 1957m 2when we achieved independence the urban-rural divide issue has been always overlooked. Sure the rural population get the agricultural programmes. But is this enough for ensuring equitabe distribution of national income? If we see our rural areas, we still have vast stretches without the basic infrastructure like piped water and electricity and telecommunications and this is in the current age of the internet!
maybe the more serious economists will comment on this.

Anonymous,  14 June 2010 at 11:02  

People who are rich have surplus money that they can invest and make it work for them.A regular and low risk investment plan should be able to yield 5.6 % return i.e maintain their wealth level in keeping with the 10MP growth targets. (Of cos they might have to forego expensive habits,LV and overseas jaunts...)

So,my proposal is all the secret deals and special bumi centric opportunities be given to the poor i.e those yet to be in the rich bracket.

My friend,who is a "watchman" should be good at doing a few high rise buildings in RRI.His good friend who is an odd jobber can be tasked to do part of the MRT perhaps.In fact just .001% of MRT will push him to the High Income thresh hold.

Of cos,people will doubt his ability to deliver seeing that he has no expertise nor experience.But then again who has the experience before they started.PM Najib was brought into politics as a rookie and look how well he has done.YTL have not done any power plants until he was "forced" to take the lucrative IPP.

Well,if there are still doubters..we can form management companies and get the best brains (sourced by 1st Talent) to run the show for my watchman and his friend?

It would also help if the rich limits their spending,investing and asset relocations only locally and if they want to do it overseas..5% should go to my friend as a Mutual 1Malaysia Rebalancing Fund (MOMREF).

Wenger J Khairy 14 June 2010 at 11:14  

Thanks for the mention. You really made my day as I was feeling quite down after my verbal spats with other bloggers. Once again I deeply appreciate your mention and it gives me the desire to fight and to tell things as it is.

2 things I will do in the short term.
(1) Looking closely at the Macroeconomic situation and dissecting the 10th MP

(2) Performing some valuation analysis on GLC. My first target is MAS and based on a first glance, the story is not good.

Cheerio Dato and thanks once again

Are You Gonna Go My Way,  14 June 2010 at 11:15  

The definition of malay in constitution is just the legal aspect of it…non dna and nonspiritual. Social capital I guess is the common law the unwritten law… the law that receives its binding force from immemorial usage and universal reception.

Let me get philosophical,

We homosapien will process our self to become human being ie to
discard the animal instinct in all of us.. the bad behavior of animals
in all of us. You know the garang macam harimau, menyalak macam
anjing, berebut2 macam ayam etc….

Once we become human, we gather together to have a common identity and entity that is called race. We choose to call our group of people as Malay/Melayu. No DNA required and no color scheme needed. You can be a jawa, bugis, Indian, Chinese, belanda etc…we have dark , brown and fair Malays…we are the real melting pot. We are the real 1 malaysia. Imagine hundreds or thousands years ago…our ancestors came to this land from different places and decided ‘hey we should all be known as Malays’’ and everyone agreed.

Now can anyone of you guess what constitute a Malay race? Apart from
the definition in constitution. It’s the unwritten law of behavior as
Malays, the law that receives its binding force from immemorial usage
and universal reception.

Let me start by a few example, and you guys can add anything that comes to mind…

1.taat setia
2. budi bahasa
3.hormat menghormati
4.gotong royong
5.tiada hasad dengki
6. tidak tamak

Do we still have all of those traits? the binding element, the glue.
While we’re busy to become the true muslim, the real muslim the
Taliban muslim etc… We forgot to be a true malay. We are a lost soul
on earth…

The Chinese, Japanese, Korean etc hold on tight to their traits…that’s
why they always succeed no matter what political inclination or
religious belief they have.

Quiet Despair,  14 June 2010 at 11:47  

Bro Sak

Of course not. Every Malay especially you should also be given the opportunity to be like them.
The more rich Malays there are, the better for the race.
I believe nepotism be it in business or politics must be stopped.
But how Sak, dema tahu semua lubang.
What I dont like is Malays copeting with the Malays.
Why cant we compete with the non-Malay rich.
You, as an economist. must present your views to our Government on how to do this.

About sons of PMs, after Najib there should not be any more.
Let's put to a stop to this.
Can anybody see that Mukhriz or Hisham are not even minister material, let alone be PM.
But our people have this obsession with aristocrats.
Now people are talking of putting Mukhriz as Kedah MB in the coming GE.

Are You Gonna Go My Way,  14 June 2010 at 12:54  

Quiet Despair,

We don’t have any objection to any of those Malay tycoons you mentioned to become even richer or to be on the top 3 list… But can they carry the duty as the top Malays in the supply chain for other Malays businesses? The Malays are lacking in a complete supply chain cycle…So far those top Malays have failed. Proton tried it with vendor program, but instead of helping, they squeezed the small manufacturer to produce components cheaply and the result was substandard component.

We don’t need their zakat or foundations, those were only for their own tax purposes and we are not beggars. If for example they start their own version of Tesco or Carrefour….and Malays cottage industries are allowed to supply products there…wouldn’t it be something….

Anonymous,  14 June 2010 at 20:02  

I don't understand all this shit of malay this malay that. Why do you guys look down so much on malays. The politicians especially UMNO politicians have made the malay race their triumph card. In any worst case scenario, mention the malay race name and get Utusan to potray some non malay as their 'so called enemy' and work them up against so that the race card will favor the UMNO politicians. Mahathiak has done this and now Najib is doing the same.
Please, please I am sick of these politicians running down my race. Forget about Sapura, Mokhtars and the rest of the UMNO cronies. Look around you and you will notice many many courageous malays fighting for their bread and butter and most of them have done very well. Go visit KELANTAN, TRENGGANU and you will find malays who stand on their own feet without the help of the UMNO govt. UMNO has failed to look after the welfare of the malays since Mahathir took over the reins as Prime Minister in 1981. Since then the malay children including mine have got to get study loans, they call it PTPTN.They the UMNO can't afford to give malays free education what else would you expect from them. UMNO will politicize certain issues, show their faces on TV giving some unwanted aid to us the malays when election is around. After that they wait for the UMNO General Assembly where they will show of their keris and shout of 'Hidup Melayu' on top of their voice and thats it.
Thats all. I am getting irritated.Ibrahim Ali can go fly kites. The malays don't need him and his PERKOSA whose objective is to perkosa the malays for his own benefit.I totally agree with you Dato Sak on Ibrahim Ali.The pak tua is also worked up on this issue. Pak tua, Mahathiak should be more sensible and stop being a used xPM.

Anonymous,  15 August 2010 at 00:22  

I would like to exchange links with your site
Is this possible?

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