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Sakmongkol ak 47

Monday 10 September 2012

Tsunami over FELDA

If my friend, Pirates of Putrajaya had been a little bit more patient, he will find his views on the FGV vindicated. Probably he underestimated the will of the government to use GLCs under its control to shore up the FGV price.
Nevertheless, his views will be vindicated soon and I and millions of others hope he will come back into blogosphere to share with us, his rapier sharp analyses.
What Najib is doing right now is just putting out fires. He forgot that it all needed but a single spark to light up the prairie fire.  He has given advance bribe of RM15, 000 each to felda family. I hear, full payment hasn’t been given out yet. Perhaps felda will use its gain of RM5.99 billion to pay the balance of what has been promised by Najib. Felda pays unto itself using its own money. He has given almost RM43 million as raya bonus. Each family got around RM382.  That amount was useful to buy cookies, lemang , fresh meats and maybe new curtains for the missus. Because of the drop in FGV share price, he has also announced that Felda will pay for the settlers’ purchase of FGV shares. Once again, that will probably come from the RM5.99 billion.
Finally to placate the settlers’ anger, he has announced that Felda will pay for PTPTN loans taken by the Felda children.
That is his economic strategy. We don’t have to go the Chicago, Princeton, Oxford or Cambridge to do that. Not even Nottingham.
What was the real agenda really? Maybe all this corporate bullshit was about saving FGV. It has done extensive futures trading and had incurred huge losses.  That was why some brainy people came up with the idea, the only way to save FGV was to have it buy out KPF’s share in Felda Holdings and go for listing.
At closing time today, FGV share was RM 4.68, earning the holders of the stock a premium of 13 sen.  If Najib hadn’t come up with the brilliant idea of ordering Felda to finance settlers’ purchase, each settler ends up with a RM94.70 loss.
Actually FGV bought out Felda Holdings to save itself. It has incurred heavy losses doing futures trading. We don’t know how much FGV got by selling its shares. There was no cash payment involved as the purchase was financed by the issue of new shares which were sold to the public through the IPO.  Part of the proceeds were used by Felda to pay its EPF loan amounting to RM6 billion.  Then EPF is instructed to buy FGV shares, now it owns 7% of FGV bought for RM 1.2 billion. Foreign interests are selling down to cut down losses.
What is even more pernicious and atrocious is the betrayal to Felda people. 360,000 hectares of land have been forfeited which could be used in future to create 80,000 new settlers.
Its dark days looming over Felda and no amount of PR exercise can mitigate the anger that is shoring up. There is a tsunami looming over Felda.


Three Trees,  10 September 2012 at 19:44  

Dato' Sak, BN has been making mistake after mistake,it's like in a quicksand,the more you struggle the faster you go down.The end is near,the sign are everywhere.

Anonymous,  10 September 2012 at 20:11  

askm tok
tolong tulis melayu tok senang nak print bgi org kg.. sy tau n faham inggeris
cadangan dtok tulis kembali a to z (detail)kembali pasal felda utk print n edar pd org2 kg moga dgn sedikit usaha dtok dpt menambah undi PR...

Anonymous,  10 September 2012 at 20:21  

kalau ada tsunami di felda. untunglah pakatan. jadi kenapa perlu takut? apa yang aku tahu, orang felda makin menyokong najib dan barisan. saham fgv ada turun naik. itu biasa. saham perladangan sesuai untuk jangka panjang. kalau tak percaya tahap sokongan kau pergi tanya peneroka dan generasi ke dua. kalau kau turun ke bawah dan tanya sokongan kepada pakatan. jawapannya semakin hari semakin susut sejak pas sertai dap. sebab aku anak peneroka. aku tahu sentimen di bawah di felda.

anak peneroka

average joe 10 September 2012 at 20:43  

i beg to differ. this aint quicksand. bukan pasirjerlus.
bcos quicksand is usually a natural occurrence, not manmade.
this chaotic desperation that is staring in the face of najib and gang in the union of satans (well at least in the party whose members did not even bat an eyelid in suggesting they did mind if their party was labelled in reference to the devil!) is an accumulated result of an intentional manipulation to almost instantly gain millions if not billions albeit by replacement of the initial millions from the right hand side pocket to the left side.
from epf to fgvh etc.
orang melayu kata korek lubang baru, guna tanah untuk kambus lubang lama, and repeat.
and as the numerous bijakpandai or cendikiawan melayu had warned eons ago (and fyi, mamakhatheer, you are not one of them, by virtue that you yourself proclaimed you were not a cendikiawan, well, or at least we dont really acknowledge you as a melayum so either way you still dont belong) this gali-and-kambus technique would only result in getting yourself buried.
and when that day happens, e.t.a. 13 o'clock on the malaysia's ge standard time, we the people will not be stingy from saying innalillah... and we shall recite the al-fatihah for your behalf, ya haji najib and umno...

let's together kick out the manipulators and oppressors!
this ge13 let us together make and witness them kick the bucket!

-average joe-
klakka-la.blogspot: TANYALAH USTAZ

bruno,  10 September 2012 at 21:54  

Dato,maybe Wenger was a bit impatient and out of frustration went to hibernate,and to recharged his batteries.But he will definitely be back soon to have one final shot at Umno/BN before they go.

CPO futures have traded below the RM 2,800 while soybeans futures have made new highs because of the drought in the midwest.And mother nature is expected to be on the side of the soybean and grain farmers,because more rain is forecasted.

If CPO prices have headed south when soybeans prices have headed north,what will happen when more rain falls in the midwest of the US.Soybean prices will then head south and CPO prices will fall off the cliffs.CPO prices have peaked,as the prices of CPO has a bearish divergence to palm oil.

All it takes is for soybeans to drop a couple of dollars in the next few weeks,and CPO will be in the RM2,200-2,500 range.Then FGV will be below RM 4.00.No matter how much manipulation by gomens and central bankers,the markets always win in the end.

Just like FGV,the stock markets will tanked when the federal reserve and the ECB have run out of printing paper,as the markets have been propped up for an extended period of time.In fact a few years already.

This time around the rape of Felda will be the final straw to break the camels back.Just because two recent statutory rape suspects have been aquitted because of their potentially good futures,Umno/BN thinks that they will get a free pass too.They will be in real shock and fall flat on their faces the night of the GE, when the results are finally announced.

bruno,  10 September 2012 at 23:08  

talking cowsense,

FGV buying and taking control over Felda whom it owned 3 billion ringgit.A debtor buying over their creditor and laughing all the way to the bank.

Is there a law in lawless cowboy country Umnoland stating that other than Umnoputras,can other debtors just walk in and take over the banks which they owned money and become the lenders.

bruno,  10 September 2012 at 23:15  

Dato,typo error.Third paragraph should read 'CPO prices have peaked as the prices of CPO has a bearish divergence to soybeans prices'.

Anonymous,  10 September 2012 at 23:31  

Hi buddy Pirates of Putrajaya,
I told you no matter how much you say you are impartial you are not.You are essentislly very PR but i like your blog Sir Wenger.Look forward to it but do it aftet price go below IPO ok.I can then teach bruno few tips on which counter to go in.Bye..

2020,  10 September 2012 at 23:50  

Aye, i concur!!!
I for one would agree the needforthe pirate to return and yes i do agree His view are indeed vindicated... Well, timing is subjective in nature but his (could it be a HER, hmmm ... A Walla maybe?) view are objective in itself.

Now, a couple of things to note.... Which of great concern.

One, the bailout - to avoid interest burden to felda staff & peneroka... And this is done via the parent company... OMG!!
So everything is now rosy, problem solved... Hah, someone just reinvented the wheel, eureka... Now, let see them Opex & Capex again uhhh... FGVH is a listed company rite.. To be part weightage for the composite index rite? Love the way we run business, u say.. Its not just thinkin outside the box, it is throwing away the box!!

Next, the small matter with those cornerstone investor... Clause was for 6 month... Well, it is now halftime... Should anyone of them decideto bite the bullet, heaven forbid, what will our local institution have to chew...

Finally, with the prospective a certain amount of information was diclosed and confirmed officially. One of them was the fact that them trees are in the giggsy & scholesy bracket... They need to be replaced urgently, the ratio of old, mid and young are not in Felda favour where the mid (the ones in peak production and basically carrying the rest) constitute slightly a quarter of total trees. That is not good at all - there is a leadtime required before the young one matures.. Now, all this is masked due to the fact the crude palm oil price 'was' significantly high in recent times.... As with commodities, there are cycle... So when price drops and that coincide with a fallin output... Plus the need to reinvest (replant with leadtime due to the ratio) you decide to do a ptpn favor, whoops...

It does not get any less complicated... Just look over the cause way... Indonesia will have a greater say in palm oil price in the near future...

Ah well, until tHe pirates return... Hey pirates if you are readin this... There is a thing called "sequel".. Wink,wink,wink - get my drift... I am bored stiff here (esp with the latest story, flaglah, baling cat lah, ape lagi...itu semua cite URTV lah... Mama bosan betule, mane remote pirate, kau ambik ke?)

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 00:11  

Masih ada orang tak faham bagaimana dia pergunakan. Dua orang adik-beradik, si-abang tak berpelajaran tinggi sebab keluarga terlalu miskin,tapi adik teruskan ke university atas biasiswa kerajaan. Si-abang bertungkus lumus jadi peniaga kecilan kemudian kontraktor.40 tahun kemudian si-abang dah jadi kaya tapi masih hidup secara sederhana. Datang si-adik seorang korporat, gaji tinggi, hidup mewah, jumpa si-abang nak labur dalam syarikat si-abang. Dulu si-abang mula dengan modal Rm50000 pinjaman dari bank. Si-adik berkata kepada si-abang, dah tua, lepaskan saja, ini Rm500,000 untuk abang, bang masih memiliki 20% dalam syarikat, relax saja di rumah, tunggu pembahagian untung tiap tahun, apa pasal mau susah payah lagi.

Bukan Rm382 sebaliknya 500,000. Syarikat si-abang bukan bernilai berbilion-bilion ringgit, mungkin hanya 10 milion. Adil atau tidak tawaran si-adik itu?. Bayaran untuk memiliki 80% saham syarikat 10 kali ganda modal permulaan si-abang. Tetapi, jangan lupa si-abang berpeluh, berjemur di bawah matahari dan mungkin pernah memuntah darah selama 40 tahun.

Jangan salah faham,bukan dato' takut - takut apa? Yang menyedihkan dato dan ramai lagi warga dari bandar adalah kenapa pengswastaan Felda baru dilaksanakan sekarang dan tidak sebelum tahun 2008, sebelum Felda kerugian berjuta-juta ringgit di luar negara, sebelum Felda diterajui warga-warga yang memang rapat dengan PM. Tak perlu kami maklum sejak bila dan apa sebabnya pertalian sebegini rapat dijalinkan walhal terang-terang seorang itu di-gantung daripada keahliannya dalam UMNO semasa seorang lain yang juga memegang jawatan PM.

Tawaran dari FGV itu adil atau tidak?

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 00:43  

11 September 2012 00:11

Ralat: 'penyenaraian' bukan 'pengswastaan'

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 01:29  

Anonymous 11 sept 00:11

Apa keperluan mendesak untuk felda disenaraikan?kalau diswastakan sudah berpuluh tahun lamanya sejak penubuhan pelbagai anak syarikat dan felda holdings?FGV bukan berperangai seperti adik yang tawarkan duit 500000 itu sebaliknya adik kata adik nak senarai syarikat adik tapi modal tak ada dan aset pun tak ada. Abang bagilah tanah abang 360000 hektar itu dan adik nak claim kepada bakal pelabur adik kontrol semua anak syarikat bawah sykt abang (pinjam nama). Adik mampu bayar banyak ini sahaja dan kalau abang tak terima adik guna kuasa ayah paksa abang terima.dah dekat senarai sykt adik datang lagi kata tengok adik punya syarikat dah bernilai billion billion dan abang patut serah semua syarikat abang dan bersyukur adik nak bagi 20%.lagipun adik tak boleh tipu pelabur yg adik tak control sykt abg semuanya lama2...

Ini baru betul ceritanya...jangan spin kat blog intelektual dan berfakta mcm ni...pi main jauh2kat blog papagomo tu hokeyyy? Memang jawabnya bukan setakat tawaran fgv tak adil malah pinjam kata najib.....haram jadahhh!!!

Loyal reader & fact finder

2020,  11 September 2012 at 01:31  

Just to add another point... Since someone did mention about 'quicksand'... Well, this is about mud, "stuck in mud" to be exact.

I dont think we fully appreciate and comprehend the largeness of the FGVH IPO excersice to the local institution. Lets repeat this, it was the 2nd largest after facebook this year, so the quantum is big. Now, the way the IPO was executed and "cut the chase", FGVH made the decision to allow only 'minor' exposure to external parties (i.e. cornerstone investor). So who was the one picking up the tab? Well, the local boys but it was not so straight forward thingy... Why? Again, the 'economic of scale' issue. Epf, pnb etc do have regulation, targets, etc... Hence they simply can not soak it all up. They can only absorb certain portions. So, this would explain why state gov were being roped in when some of them are having budgetary issues for ages ( hey, kedah must be smiling - now, wipe that smirck off, u did screw up buyin it in the first place, lucky u did "bite the bullet")

So, what we have now and possibly in the near future, a 'stuck in the mud' scenario where these local boys are holding onto a very substatial asset that is behaving in a liability manner. To compound this further, will there be a need to do propping exercise with the GE coming into the horizon.... Now, can we say this as "to catch a fallin knife" scenario....

Hey, the PM can play with acronym... Cant i play with.... Hahaha-Pirate where are U???

bruno,  11 September 2012 at 03:04  

Dato,what Dr Mahathir always said about the Malays having poor memories,is his honesty in his true life experience about dealing with the Malays.Because during his 22 years at the helm as PM,he has able to play the Malays over and over again.

Just like in Maminco and the forex trades done by him and his sidekicks.These two fiascos cost the country to the tune of around RM40 billion.And it left a large dent in BNM's foreign cash reserves.So to replemish BNM's foreign cash reserves,Mahathir and his Umno ministers hatch up a plan to place a crony in MAS and suck it dry.That was the start of the cronies syndrome,and from MAS being a national pride to a national outcast.

Then building all the mega projects and privatisation of national assets to benefit the newly created cronies brigade.And when cronies companies got into trouble he used taxpayers money to bail the cronies out.And this includes Petronas bailing out a shipping company owned by his son.

Then using the people's pension fund the EPF to give loans to the GOM,GLC's and Umno cronies,all at lower than market interest rates.And the total of these loans have run up into tens if not hundreds of billions of ringgit.And when EPF bought some high end rental properties in upscale London,it even have to take out a loan of arounf 400 million pounds from commercial banks.And at a higher interest rates then it loaned out to Umno cronies.

So why do an institution such as cash cow the EPF had to borrow from commercial banks,when it can afford to loan to the GOM,GLC's and Umno cronies tens and hundreds of billions.On paper it is rich,that is if the loans can be collected in full.But it had to borrow from banks to finance the payment for the buildings,because technically speaking it is a cash strapped cow.The same can be said of Petronas.

Now FGV is a replay of the Maminco and forex forays of the Mahathir era.The only thing is that this FGV is a midget compared to the previous two.But eventually it will cost the taxpayers billions of ringgit as eventually the Najib trying to buy the Felda settlers votes and playing Santa Claus,the assets and money will evaporate into thin air,compliments of Umnoputras.

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 08:44  

Is FGV the millstone around UMNO's neck?
I hope so.

Will EFP sick with FGV by continuing to prop up FGV shares?

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 09:07  


Najib thinks he knows everything...

On FELDA He thinks he is a sharetrader..Padahal he knows squat about pasaran saham!! His Blogger Dogs (especially the Big Fat Obese one!) was barking about how much profit everyone can make from FGV Shares!!

Now Najib is learning fast that one does not fool around in the sharemarket especially when the Nation's future is at stake!

Joe Black

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 09:08  

Hi Sak , Pirates and bruno,

Thank you for posting some of my comments here.You may not lke some of my and QD comments but we promise to be objective hence i have to admit to anons and other name which i hate.Keep the open forum sir.I am still constatly monitoring FGVH pricesSir Wenger where sre you.Bye...~ Km

Patrick 11 September 2012 at 10:18  

You should quickly publish this in malay and disseminate to the FELDA estates without delay. What we all saw earlier is happening.

IF the GE is called next year, Najib will have to comandeer all the GLCs in malaysia to put a floor on FGV, and this is going to drain our financial system to the maximum. By that time, the moratorium on cornerstone investors will have fully expired. And the floor under FGV will give way for its ultimate collapse. Malaysian financial credibility worldwide will be drastically affected. I foresee a contagion effect on our financial system with downgrading of our sovereign bonds and debts.

Najib is counting on just enough cash support to win the elections. Najib has been grabbing govt cash, taxpayer's money, OUR money for his own benefit. Its a very dangerous move and will affect every malaysian in ways that cannot be described. Even IHH will collapse soon.

If the FELDA settlers still worship and vote back UMNO/BN, its their funeral. We can only do what we can to warn them and educate them. While Najib and gang has rapped FELDA AND the govt (which is all malaysian's money), we can either go broke or vote them out.

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 10:47  

Latest score FGVB as at 10.40am.

Open 4.68
high 4.68 low as at 10.41am 4.59
Down 9 sen.
Sellers more than buyers.Sharp decline on charts.
High time the ""PUSH UPs"" are done or felda settlers could storm putrajaya.
Come on Epf,Th,LAT,Pension fund do your thing But please bear in mind the share market is not a place for idiots.
I would love to read bigdog,rocky apanama, brick wall brains ,pk, and the rest of the mangy cybertroopers say a few words.

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 12:26  

With the Euro crisis unresolved, China possibly heading for a hard fall and US economy not getting anywhere, FGV's price WILL fall below RM4.55.

Bursa just lost another 18+ pts today!
FGV price is RM4.59 as at 12.20PM, 11 Sept. Only four sen above listing price!

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 13:07  

Somebody and some bodies are sweating. Neh mind, arms will be twisted to say ,"Yes boss" udderwise A-G will also take part in new wayang show.

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 16:11  

These chaps' CONfidence scares the hell out of me. Just now I went to the loo again and my ???? was green in colour.

Anonymous,  11 September 2012 at 22:28  

Hello, SAK47!

As bright as you are and as much as you are right; you make one mistake. As Malay you ought to know the current, sorry state of your people. Sorry state, because they have allowed themselves - based on their gentlemanly manners - to be downgraded to total dependencies on handouts. No initiative, no will to work hard. Simply sit, stare into the sky and wait for the next drips (one cannot call those measly sums 'flood'!) of the magic potion. That is duit, be it wang or otherwise.
How can you assume this makes for a noose to be used on UMNO?
Felda is UMNO terrain. And if PR marched into Putrajaya, Felda would remain staring into the sky and wait for the next handsomely handout.
Therefore, it is not political awakening ("spring") in Felda-land. It rather is an apolitical grabbing exercise, also on the settlers' side. And a PR (you) in Putrajaya would not have an any easier way of pleasing the outdated neo-feudal mindset. The world - as Friedman wrote - is flat. Including the Felda settlements, because they are from this world.

Anonymous,  12 September 2012 at 08:08  

Dear Dato Sak

The political scientists have coined a term for this:

the predatory state

Phua Kai Lit

Patrick 12 September 2012 at 09:03  

I really pity the FELDA farmers. For their earnest, simple and hardworking attitude has also made them stupid and dumb.

They are now the single largest group of bankrupts and beggars in Malaysia. With absolutely no assets of their own, especially the very land they were given to enhance their economic and social status. The NEP IS DEAD.

If UMNO/BN is not voted out, 95% of malays will be slaves or beggars to the top 5% malays in UMNO.

Anonymous,  14 September 2012 at 13:55  

A full list of all persons other than the FELDA settlers that got shares should be listed. Then the rakyat can clearly see Janji Ditetapi and also rakyat comes first!

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