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Sakmongkol ak 47

Thursday 22 September 2011

The MAS-AA deal once again-1

The MAS –AIR ASIA deal.

Will the ending of this secretive corporate deal be like this? - Air Asia buys over MAS? No, not even that- its finally give Tony what he has always wanted- own a piece of our national airline. That will make him a Prime Minister in the airline industry. 

Sometime in the future, the Khazanah people together with CIMB I suppose, will lend Tony’s Tune Air a lot of money to mop up the entire shares in Air Asia. Then Air Asia will be injected into a listed vehicle like MAS freeing Tune Air from debt. Tony’s share via Air Asia which will then be injected into MAS will be converted into substantial shareholding in our national carrier. Maybe from 20% to 40 pct.

So let’s go back to retrace our steps. Khazanah and Tony and CIMB takes us through the motion of making magic before the public eye. They are allowing Tony and company take up 20% of MAS shares under the pretext that Tony and that accountant Meranun can do their magic for MAS. Stupid MAS’s capitalization is at RM 5 billion while Air Asia stands at RM 11 billion. So how can MAS with a shotgun compete with Air Asia which has a rocket launcher? Air Asia is fully loaded firing live ammunition while MAS fires blanks.

Air Asia made more than RM 1 billion profit in 2010 while MAS incurred nightmarish losses despite Jala being there followed by Dato Tengku Azmil. Air Asia has more planes than MAS while MAS owns or leases boneshakers and call itself the airline with the golden service and touch. What a joke and this joke has been allowed to be uttered for too long by incompetent people at MAS and Khazanah.

Then with so many factors assisting Tony and Kamarudin, MAS does indeed make profit. Some bright people at Khazanah will advise the PM to suggest since Mr. TF is already the single largest shareholder of MAS and he has made profit why not merge Air Asia with MAS? By Jove, what a jolly good idea, I'd say.

How? Assist Tony take Air Asia private and then allow him to inject the new entity into MAS. Give cheap loan to Tune Air to mop up the entire shares of Air Asia and then allow it to be injected into MAS. Tune Air the original owners of Air Asia will be freed from debt and the entire debt is now absorbed into the merged entity of a new MAS. The MAS owners will be Tony and company and Khazanah. Certainly and naturally, that will create synergies (read profits for some people) and hear this, gets protection from the Malaysian government. 

It’s a long bullshiting exercise but one necessary to lead astray so many pesky bloggers. Some of them buyable but others are not

I am trying to find the one thing that is repulsive about the MAS-AA deal.  Why is this attempt by Khazanah in trying to mend MAS our national pride, appears to be a leaving a bitter after taste? What’s so distasteful about it?

My one reservation about this deal is that it shows Khazanah as trustee to the nation’s wealth and therefore enforcer about how our assets are being managed isn’t trying hard or serious enough to keep it national and strategic. Diluting the nation’s share in MAS can also diminish what potential advantages the country can leverage by having a national airline. Every country has one that it leverages on to give it comparative advantages.

The share swap with Tony Fernandes is effectively paying protection money. Give Tony shares in MAS in return of a pledge by Tony that he will not use Air Asia to compete with MAS. It’s a payout to Tony in return for TF‘s promise not to work hard.

It’s also the old game of carving out the monopoly board among business rivals. Better to cooperate rather than bludgeon each other. So will MAS make profit after this after it secures a promise from Tony to not disturb it? 

The people at MAS appear to blame some unprofitable costs center (such as Firefly) for its losses. And it believes that removing this will turn MAS profitable plus having Tony and whoever else on board will allow MAS to benefit from their skills.

It’s more like better to keep friends close and enemies closer. I go to a friend’s burial not to pay my respects but to make sure he’s dead. So keep Tony on board to ensure he’s not up to mischief which MAS people and by backward linkage, Khazanah people are incapable of dealing with.

My suggestion: Then, better to fire more people at MAS and Khazanah too. Close down Khazanah entirely would be a better solution so that they can’t do more damage and economic mischief.

What does the deal give Air Asia? It will also involve actually giving unhindered access to Air Asia to get more profitable routes. It will also involve removing a potential competitor in the form of Firefly which will be re-launched to become a regional carrier. Will that place it on a collision course with the AA associate Asia X? (Is that a porn rated business or what?)

The people at MAS will say, this will allow MAS to operate as a premium carrier. Let me ask one question- was its inability to operate profitably due to it having a low cost carrier business? If its losses were not due to it having a low cost carrier unit, then removing the LCC will not cause MAS to become more profitable. Simply because the cause or causes turning it into a loss making business are due to other reasons. It has nothing to do with having a low cost carrier business in Firefly.

The people at MAS are pulling wool over our eyes.  Air Asia made more than RM 1 billion profit in 2010 simply because it operates better and has more planes. You can’t run an airline business without planes. New ones at that. If you have old ones, the maintenance costs will kill you. What more, if the billings for repairs and maintenance are astronomical and not audited carefully. Can MAS check the profitability of the firms that it engages in repair jobs? Did they make money? If they do, then what has MAS done about it? 

Then we have to ask also why can’t MAS buys its planes direct instead of having Penerbangan Malaysia buys on its behalf. It doesn’t know how to buy planes or can’t count money?

It has chosen the easy way out at the behest of some vested parties in Khazanah, Air Asia and the common matchmaker. Plus it’s all done in a cloak of secrecy? Why? Afraid someone else can turn out to be a spoiler?

So I am accusing them of having lesser patriotism.

Those brain boxes at Khazanah couldn’t figure out how to sort out the mess at MAS after identifying the causes? You can only think of the short cut way by bringing in outside help in the form of someone operating in the industry on a different business model? You are making the mistake in assuming skills successful in one model are transferable into another. 

Yes we all agree it’s the business acumen, it’s the entrepreneurial talent that are needed to help out MAS. Because if it’s a question of only the amount of grey matter, then those existing in Khazanah alone can potentially turn out to a source of star business school professors.

After Jala left, the man responsible for managing MAS is a top notch trained accountant  from Australia. He is a super clever person. Why isn’t this clever person not able to nurse back MAS into better health? Was he undermined by vested interests? Or was MAS intentionally left to drown and the clever person made to run around like a headless chicken so that Khazanah could deliver the coup de grace to our national carrier? 

So that at the end of Tengku Azmil’s tour of duty, khazanah could declare to the PM, MAS is a hopeless case and the only way that it can saved is to bring in the white knight in the person of Tony Fernandes? (No pun intended yes Tony).

Finally the one thing I find revolting about the deal, is Khazanah wasn’t serious about saving MAS. It wasn’t industrious enough and hence opted for the lazy man’s solution- bring in another person to solve the problem instead of doing it yourself.

As promised I am now returning to a favorite hunting ground- the MAS AIR ASIA deal. It may been a slip of the tongue; the banker involved as match-maker said that, the arrangement between MAS and AIR ASIA was planned as far back as 2 years ago. That means some people undertook to grant unto themselves, god like qualities in deciding the fate of MAS.

About AIR ASIA we don’t care. It’s a private business entity and is said to be run profitably. Government has no business to interfere into the affairs of a private company. If its employees are worked like enslaved laborers, it’s their business too.

When I talked to people at MOF, it appears to me, the general feeling is that blame for the surrendering of MAS shares should be attributed to Khazanah’s corporate frolics. It was all Khazanah’s idea to have MAS’s shares swapped with that of Air Asia. The main reason, which is now increasingly questioned, is that in that way, the government can secure the services of the miracle man Tony Fernandes. 

Well, I think this is a stupid way of trying to solve MAS problems if it thinks the solution is injecting Fernades’s business acumen into the running of MAS. He is good- we can grant him that, but good for Air Asia not necessarily for MAS. 

Next: Just a foot more, and MAS would have struck mother lode. 


Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 13:50  

In a closed door meeting, MAS managers was told by the new Chairman that the share swap deal is irreversible and have the endorsement/support of PM Najib and his cabinet members.

Of course this information is confidential and cannot be made known to the employees.


Quiet Despair,  22 September 2011 at 13:59  

TF is what Americans call frenemies to MAS. He will never be a true and loyal friend.
To get even is always at the back of his mind. He will milk MAS dry (the coffer is bare, but the cupboard will do)
He subscribes to the AC/DC song What Do You Do For Money Honey. "You are riding high on the take and you are always on the make, Squeezing all the blood out of men."
Or he likes Lady Gaga's song That's money, so sexy,
That's money, honey.
For him, it's always about the money, money, money.
And who will lose out in the end? the MAS staffers.
But I can give some credit to this guy who can don the songkok covered with Jalur Gemilang.
He's the very opposite of that Manoharan who wants to dump the Jalur Gemilang.
Oh I forgot, he's a Goan Christian. The other one had ancestors from Kerala who came on the Chiddambaram.
Hey Sak, its great to be PM of an airlne. Make loads more money than PM Najib. Don't you want it too?
You are so like Americans who went to funeral to see whether the enemy is dead.
Malays like UMNO go to the funeral to forgive and see whether the dead showed repentance. Wakaka.
No wonder you are not on the same wavelength with them.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 14:42  

letting things get extremely bad so that fruitd can easily be plucked seems to be a game that is being played on many fronts in GLCs........
Tenaga will be next as they are being allowed to bleed so that the undersea cables to Sarawak can be laid and Bakun can be saved!


Alex Rathy 22 September 2011 at 15:07  

Air Asia net worth as at 31 March 2011 is RM3.8 billion of which RM2.3 billion is distributable to shareholders or can be retained for future expansion (aircraft purchase, etc). MAS has no distributable reserves(in fact it's negative) meaning that after so many years in existence it has nothing show and is eating into its share capital.

Prior to the share swap between the parents of MAS & AA. AA was trading at 40x its earning (PE), showing that
share market investors recognise the future prospects of the company and the ability of TF. MAS is a totally crap company with no signs of a turnaround in the immediate future in spite bailouts one after another.

Over the past 2 weeks markets all over world took a beating in the wake of a possible US double dip recession and the Eurozone debt crises that just wont go away. The local market analyst cant understand the rationale of TF taking a huge stake in MAS. Is he biting off more than he can chew? Will he be distracted by MAS and his other pursuits (Lotus F1 and QPR) at the expense of AA? The fate of both MAS and AA seemed to be inter-twined for now. Stay on the sidelines for now on AA. Avoid MAS totally. Buyer beware and be aware.

Antara Dua Gampang 22 September 2011 at 16:25  

Mazir as usual will squeeazed the blood of all the Khazanah guys and CIMB Group guys just to fulfil his ambitious plan.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 16:40  


MAS = Mana Ada Success?
MAS = Mesti Amat Stupid?

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 17:22  

As part of share swap, both MAS and Air Asia openly agree to focus on different markets -- ie MAS on premium market and AA on regional budget market.

In the US, this would have subjected the 2 companies to anti-trust investigations. The share swap would not have been approved

Malaysia is suppposed to intriduce anti trust law soon. Can such conduct be challenged?

But MAS is majority--owned by Govt and according to article, deal has blessings of PM/Cabinet. Does that mean the PM/Government approve of anti-competitive conduct? How can the Goct regulates its own conduct? (Khazanah = Govt = PM = Cabinet)

Where does that leave us consumers? We have no alternative but to fly AirAsia especially locally if we are on budget (no more Firefly in the future, no more low-cost fares from MAS).

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 17:27  

Air Asia's profits is not real is but manipulated using accounting tricks. Has Air Asia paid in full what it owed to MAHB for airport services? Last reported was that Air Asia refused to pay MAHB unless given a huge discount. Imagine this! Only in Malaysia and with the backing of certain "people" can this happen.

Losses incurred by MAS is largely due to high and excessive operational costs that politically could not be cut or trimmed, eg in-flight meals. Whoever put in charge of MAS is doomed to fail because there are too many "protected interest" in MAS. It would be better just to close down MAS and save the agony. Doing this would not be the first time that a country shut down its national airline, nor would it be the last.

A lot of Air Asia's profits came at the expense of MAS, eg taking over routes formerly monopolized by MAS. Can anyone answer why allow a private company to profit at the expense of a national company resulting in taxpayers bearing the losses?

Does Air Asia own a lot of planes? There was great publicity over the hundreds of planes that Air Asia ordered. But how many planes has it received and operating? Some of its planes are leased. Most of the planes ordered are to be delivered in the next few years, not immediately.

Is Tony Fernandes the miracle man that is made out to be? He is but a front man for influential "unseen persons". No doubt he will be well rewarded but the "real owners" of Tune Air and Air Asia will make much much more.

The MAS-Air Asia share swap, if left unchecked, will inevitably result in Air Asia (Tune Air) taking over MAS and making tons of money for "certain people" at the expense of taxpayers.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 17:51  

'My suggestion: Then, better to fire more people at MAS and Khazanah too. Close down Khazanah entirely would be a better solution so that they can’t do more damage and economic mischief.'
That is exactly what we should do. MAS's staff are not productive. The many unions in MAS will ensure that their members will work the minimum and demand the maximum income. Their senior pilots need to work less than 15 days to earn RM32K a month. Using the jurassic jumbo 747 with 4 engines will make MAS lose money even with a full load. So how to make a profit? Remember their food caterers make a tidy profit all the time. MAS is history. Only God can turn around MAS.
Pak Tua.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 18:18  

The grapevine is full of chatter and because the Gov have remained silent on this issue, we can all assume that it has given the deal their blessings or whatnot. On the very first meeting, both sides are suggested to have had compiled a list, however, TF and friends apparently only wanted to discuss Firefly. You can now all see the results of that meeting, Firefly routes cancelled, FireFly JB closed down, 737's being parked, Firefly staff being asked to take 'forced leave'etc etc. Whats next on the list??

OneMalaysian,  22 September 2011 at 18:43  

Dear Sakmongkol

We need to discuss a very important question here: is it the business of governments to be in business? It was quite fashionable at one time after WW2 for governments in capitalist Europe, not to mention communist regimes, to nationalize important segments of the economy like banks, coals mines, railways and public utilities. These were considered “assets” too important to leave to private enterprise, that might “exploit” the people, and in any case, they thought it better to be in the hands of governments so the people can all share in their “prosperity”.

We all know the subsequent story. Governments made a mess of these assets. They were run badly and returned sub-normal profits, if they didn’t make outrages losses. The people never benefited through public ownership of such assets. So after Margaret Thatcher came to power in the 1979, she began a massive privatization programme that was copied throughout the world, including in Malaysia. But we didn’t go all the way. We kept many of these under quasi-government control, and they are called GLCs.

These GLCs by any measure under-performed their private sector equivalents. Some, in fact, bleed red ink year in, year out. The two best examples are MAS and Proton, who both needed endless transfusions of cash to keep them afloat or on the road. SIA and Cathay Pacific, MAS’ regional competitors are flying circles around our hapless MAS. Hyundai and other Korean car companies, founded around the time of Proton, have become world competitors. But our beloved Proton is struggling despite high tariff walls that resulted in us Malaysians having to pay high prices and getting poor choices for nearly 30 years.

How clever is this national car idea? Anyone can make cars. It is whether you can make one that also makes lots of money that really counts. As for MAS, let us stop fooling ourselves about the need for a “national” airline. Who really cares if it is losing money hand over fist? Would people, including Malaysians, stop flying on MAS if it weren’t a “national” airline? We have no trouble flying the non-national Air Asia. Everyone simply wants the cheapest fare with the least inconvenience. Period. And how much is this “national” symbol worth when it is perennially losing money? Instead of giving us pride of ownership it is the really the best advertisement of the incompetence of Malaysians at doing business – government or privately owned. We should be ashamed of it, not having this false pride.

The right thing to do is for government to transfer MAS (and Proton, too) to private shareholders (and not some other government-linked institutions). Business is business. The government will only make a mess of it. Do this and things will straighten out like magic.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 19:21  

Salam Dato,
Seperti yg seringkali saya katakan Pembesar2 umno dan juak2nya (lanun2 yg diberikan kuasa) sedang tamak berebut2 sesama mereka untuk merompak khazanah negara dgn gendang dipalu diseluruh kampung2 dan felda2 diatas nama ketuanan melayu yg sedang diganggu gugat oleh Mat Sabu, Anwar dan Lim Kit Siang. Didalam ketakutan orang Melayu kampung dan felda seperti biasa selama 54tahun mereka melakukan rompakan di bawah hidung orang2 kampung dan felda.

Drp; zuki ahmad

bruno,  22 September 2011 at 20:35  

Dato,if having TF on board will shift the competition away from MAS,and made it profitable then they must all be dreaming.Decades before TF and his sugar daddies came onto the radar screen,MAS was already losing container loads of the people's hard earned money.

So what is so special about TF.He wasn't the one who made MAS lost all the money before,and he is not going to be the one to make MAS made all the money now or in the future.The problem is not with TF or his so called golden goose AA.The problem is the people associated with MAS,the cronies of the Umnoputra robber barons.

Why MAS needs a lowclass whore like AA or TF to suppossedly prop up its image and profits is the so called
inferior siege mentality of the Kahzanah goons.It is like the Kahzanah goons who see some pretty mistress of some guy.This Kahzanah goon wants the gal badly,so he made a trade with the guy,
in exchange for the lady.So instead of getting quality goods,this Kahzanah goon got a showcase quantity used goods.

Anonymous,  22 September 2011 at 21:01  

Dato, I just cannot imagine more than 300,000 PATI working in non approved sectors in the country, which had been confirmed by the Minister himself. What are the governemnt and its agencies are doing in protecting the nation. I believed these people we trusted them to managed the country, are busy making money and forget about the responsibilities. The customs has i own issue, the immigration is known for letting PATI to come in with one eye closed, the police with its bribing motorist on the street. PM Najib has to resolve the negative image of his adminisration. The NKRA & ETPs are just propaganda without any effect.
RAKYAT want to see a well managed country.

Donplaypuks® 23 September 2011 at 00:06  

It seems to me from comments here and elsewhere that many are upset that a non-Bumi stands to gain from this deal while Khazanah hedges its bets, having messed it all up over the years.

I suppose they would rather have another TR looting MAS and bring it to its knees than Khazanah doing a deal with a non-Bumi who many within and outside Malaysia belive has a better than even chance of pulling the chestnuts out of the fire.

Eschew meritocracy and brainwash the Bumis a la BTN courses, and that's all you'll get - an obsession with Race, Race and Race while bankruptcy beckons!

we are all of 1 Race, the Human race

Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 01:53  


Two simple questions >>

1.How much did PMB lose on the WAU program?

2.How much did Idris Jala lost on his oil hedge?

Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 02:24  

corporate's guys nowadays becoming bolder and certainly not bald otherwise they can buy some magic portion to grow back their hair in the right places. bald, bolder or whatever they sure got balls, hope all them got 2 balls each and keep playing their balls on their side.

they got balls because the were given balls and bless by the person in power. they got the connections and could bluff or just ignore the bolehland's folks because the majorities are retards.

they already got what they wanted and now busy dividing the loots and they will move on to devour anything in their path.

just dont hope for light at the end of a tunnel.

Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 03:07  

Dato' Sak,

You have summarized the whole deal in your first paragraph i.e. the ultimate objective is "it finally gives Tony what he has always wanted - own a piece of our national airline".

My reading of the plan is as follows;

1) Confine Firefly to only turbo-prop operations serving ex/into-Subang airport. This will eliminate competition for Air Asia in the LCC market segment.

2) Form "Sapphire Airlines" to take over domestic and regional routes. God knows who will own Sapphire Airlines (Tune Air again?). MAS will be left to operate all the long haul international routes. Under MAS operation today, the domestic and regional routes are the ones making money, more than a hundred million ringgit profit per annum. On the other hand, long haul international routes are losing big money.

3) Meanwhile, rumours are strong that someone up there in the corridors of power is taking over MASKargo (a profitable subsidiary). And also possibly another profitable subsidiary - MRO (MAS Engineering). Remember the MAS Catering deal? If this happens, MAS will basically be stripped naked.

4) Left with the unprofitable long-haul international routes, MAS P&L will show terribly bad financial results.

5) TF/Khazanah will then propose to the Government that the best option to rescue MAS is to let Sapphire Airlines take over MAS.



Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 03:17  


This issue has nothing to do with an obsession with race. Nobody here is talking about race. Its the manner the deal was done and the secrecy surrounding it. Please read Sak's articles and all the comments properly and argue on the points lah.

You try to champion non-race based meritocracy, not realising that you are starting the race issue.


Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 12:25  

would be interesting to find out the following :
a. since firefly started operations, how much of the LCC business did it draw away from air asia
b. whats the bottom line of Firefly since inception i.e was it making money
c.whats the operational cost of Firefly operations per flight to east malaysia using jets compared to airasia

the reason i'm asking this is a lot of east malaysians are saying that Firefly is a Godsend, no hidden charges and you get to use aerobridge at KLIA to boot.With the introduction of Firefly's RM10 bus service to sentral from KLIA i'm sure East msians were going over to Firefly in droves.

OneMalaysian,  23 September 2011 at 14:16  

Dear Sakmongkol

Before we close this story of the Air Asia- MAS “merger”, let me mention a couple of things that I have been thinking about since the merger first emerged in the papers.

I have always had this suspicion that Tony Fernandes and Kamaruddin Meranun were just front men for some big shots who are hiding behind the curtains. Of course I have no evidence, but there a few dots out there and I have made an attempt at connecting them to see a picture. It is not clear at all, but let me tell you what I think.

These two fellows bought into a bankrupt company (with 2 old Boeing 737s and lots of losses) 6-7 years ago for RM1.00 and assumed all the debts. One was an EMI executive (that’s why they now have Tune Air) and the other an accountant. They had no prior experience running airlines, least a low-cost operation. Now, would sensible bankers trust these two enough to let them take over, hoping that these 2 untried guys can turn around that failed company, and that they can run an untried (at least in Malaysia) business idea? AA needed massive NEW loans. Were the net worths of TF and KM high enough to guarantee hundreds of millions of loans in a risky business? And what about the rapid increase in NEW routes? What kind of political connections did a hitherto music executive and an accountant have that could swing such big deals in the Ministry of Transport?

So all this made me think that there were hands behind the scene. Air Asia fly using the flight designation AK__ . Guess what, there is a very wealthy Malaysian with these initials, and he has strong connections, not least with a former PM. And there is this Azran Osman-Rani, CEO of Air Asia X, by all accounts an able chap, who was recruited from Astro All Asia Networks, a company controlled by someone with the AK initials. Is this a coincidence?

Forget the politics of this merger for a while. Let’s think about it from a business/investment angle. Everyone seems to think that MAS is impossible to turn around because of entrenched political interests, political interferences, bad management culture, poor leadership, over manning, high cost structure, etc. They also think that having TF and KM on board won’t make a difference to profits, in fact things might get worse because MAS will allow AA to take over some routes, or allow it to have routes they never had before, or they will kill off Firefly and give a local monopoly to AA. Worse, all this would merely make AA more profitable.

Let’s assume all this to be true. Now look at the math. TF and friend gets 20% of a no-good, money-losing airline called MAS that they bought (or exchanged) with half of their 20% AA holdings held under Tune Air. (They are left with 10% of AA, equal to what Khazanah owns and less than the 12% that EPF owns, so in effect they don’t control AA anymore). Is this a smart, sure-fire move? If they were smart they would merely hold on to their 20% of AA. In 2011 AA is forecast to make RM1.0 billion in profits while MAS is making losses of the same order. And the AA profits come BEFORE having those new routes and a dead Firefly. So why swap half of a proven, profitable and growing investment for 20% of something with a record of losses and known to be difficult to turn around, and in the process you lose control of AA and don’t gain any control of MAS? If we rule out stupidity as a possible explanation, the only other explanation is that those unseen hands ordered this deal for reasons we do not quite know.

Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 15:46  

Sir, everything you talk about is called a duopoly - its absolutely all true..

Anonymous,  23 September 2011 at 18:37  

think tengku azmil wld hv managed a real turnaround with his owning planes,firefly and O&M discipline.Real turnaround is hard work n attention to details.
But unfortunately some others hv the ears of PM.Firefly jets is a thorn.Firefly turboprop is definite hurt.
Nip the opposition in the bud whilst at same time get assets on cheap.Count the intangibles i.e landing rights,brand n experience n its a hariraya sale.
We will speculate.Reason is deal is opaque.Valuations derived on mkt is not appropriate.Life goes on.

Anonymous,  24 September 2011 at 17:06  

Assalamualaikum Tuan

Mohon izin untuk copy dan paste link di facebook untuk tatapan bersama.

terima kasih

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