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Sakmongkol ak 47

Wednesday 15 July 2009

Manek Urai- Congratulations to UMNO!

Congratulations are in order. Not to PAS but to UMNO. Its ground troops have done sterling work. Tok Pa and the UMNO divisional leaders, KJ and his Pemuda, Wanita UMNO, Puteri have all rallied for a common cause- to win in a PAS stronghold. By reducing the PAS majority, UMNO has dealt PAS a devastating blow.

Pas won the by-election in Manek Urai by 65 votes. The other way to look at it, UMNO won over 1000 votes it lost to the previous late PAS ADUN. The more appropriate question to ask is not why can't UMNO win in a Malay heartland but why has PAS lost much of its territory? UMNO has every reason to be jubilant and PAS has every reason to worry. Why has over 1000 people who previously supported PAS abandoned the party?

Husam Musa will say the expected; that this Manek Urai is a buy-election. UMNO buys the votes from the voters. How else can he explain the dismal showing of PAS? He has to say this to stay relevant.

PAS leadership now has grounds to inquire what the PAS machinery in Kelantan has been doing. It has not be able to retain its support can only suggest that it has ignored the people of Manek Urai.

The near loss of PAS in its stronghold reflects the dissatisfaction of people on some of the stand taken by the Kelantan PAS leadership. For example, this near loss can be interpreted as an explicit message that TG Nik Aziz may have underestimated a desire to forge Malay unity. I too have been cynical about this unity talk, but its impossible to deny the facts. This near loss can also be seen as popular approval on the moves by the PAS faction leaning towards unity talks.

But more importantly to me, it is an indictment of the PAS government in Kelantan itself. If the more than 1000 PAS supporters went over to the UMNO side, it can only mean that people in Manek Urai are becoming more pragmatic. It's the end result that counts. They have finally realised that they no longer want to be poor on earth and only richer in the next world. They want a government which can deliver tangibles and not promises. That's temporal tangibles and not unfilled promises.

Suppose what Husam Musa says are true. People are gullible. They can be bought. Then, It can also mean, if the people are corruptible, the PAS machinery has not done its job converting the hoi polloi, the plebeians, the commoners, the 'heathens' to the PAS cause. It can also mean, that 5000 over people and the thousands more who came and heard Anwar Ibrahim speak, realised that Anwar is selling snake oil.

UMNO has come close to wiping out its deficit. The strong showing of UMNO in a Malay heartland shows that it is on the rebound. This tremendous boost can only suggest that the UMNO machinery is getting its act together. It must also mean that the prestige of PM Najib is becoming a factor resuscitating UMNO. It means that UMNO has a chance under Najib's leadership.

How do you explain the strong showing of UMNO here?

The fighting force has been doing a lot of work. Dato Mustapha Mohamad is seen as a serious man with the interest of the people at heart. The divisional UMNO machinery has been able to concentrate its efforts towards winning against a common political foe. If the younger generation has warmed up to UMNO, that can only indicate the good work carried out by Pemuda UMNO under the leadership of KJ.

The timing between the vacancy of the seat and the by election date has given UMNO troops sufficient time and space to carry out organised work on the ground. Next time UMNO wants to win, extend the nomination date as long as possible.

Finally there is the Najib factor here. He has the prestige and is gaining confidence of the people. The recent poll which indicated an increase of support from 40% to 65 percent reflects his growing stature and believability. He has shown his willingness to undo the 'legacies' of the old UMNO.

His willingness to abolish the 30% equity ruling which has not benefited the man in the street indicates that he has shifted priority away from the elite to the real man on the street. I may not agree to the reversal of teaching maths and science in Malay, but that decision, it seems has resonated well with the Malay psyche. The decision signals his readiness not to compromise on a strictly Malay interest. By doing that, PM Najib is showing that UMNO is once again championing Malay cause and UMNO has once again connected.


Chen KH,  15 July 2009 at 08:30  

Great blog, Dato. Thanks for your insights.

Was it really such a great UMNO victory? I am not a statistician but the numbers do tell a story by itself, interpretation is up each individual.

The SPR had divined a voter turnout of 85% (Malaysian Insider, July 13). Previous by-elections on a weekday saw turnouts of 71-75% not barring Penanti. Previous Manek Urai election turnout on a Saturday was 84%. This election saw 87%.

67% of the voters are between the ages of 21-49. The age most likely to be mobile and be working out of state.

My take is that at 85% turnout UMNO would have won. The extra 2% swung it back.

Lets not thread where it might be libelous to cast aspersions on a government body.

Chen KH

Fairplay,  15 July 2009 at 08:40  

Dato, in any competition, the best man should win,don't you think so? Congrats to the winner!
But, dato, are you implying (and thus confirming our suspicion) that UMNO has control over the election dates and thus by extension over the EC?

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 10:13  

Well, much as I hate to say it, the 65 vote win does signal tremendous issues for PAS in general and really TGNA and Husam in particular.

The only thing that can help relieve the pressure on Pakatan - a by election happens in a BeeEnd held seat in the peninsular like KT. If Pakatan wins AGAIN, pressure goes back 110% on BeeEnd and Najib.

Much as i dont like, we now need to pray for the death of a BeeEnd assemblyperson whether state or parliament and MOST MOST preferably, one that is based in Perak.!!!!!

So, pls , anyone, time to go to the next world !!!!! And we need you to konk out within the next 2 mths !!!!!! :)

kuldeep 15 July 2009 at 10:34  

If the government goes on to build that little bridge in Manek Urai (the cost is abt CIMB boss annual salary)..then indicative that the BN psyche have transformed to the positive.

If it does not build the bridge it goes on to demonstrate that they will continue to punish 5000 innocents who supported them to spite the 5000 who didn't.

By the way ,the RM 7 m belongs to the rakyat and not to UMNO.

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 15:51  

Wonder who took awy the 19500rm cause that was the cause of the defeat,do the math.

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 16:14  

Very suspicious Dato'!!!
But sorry to say that UMNO had embarked into something serious that will be very difficult to undo in the future. It is money, money and money but easy for Manek Urai as it has small number of voters but in a General election too big an area to be covered and we are yet to see the respond from the voters when they don't get what are expected from UMNO. Too bad for the candidates in future unless he has millions before deciding to stand as candidate coz Muhideen will not be around to act as Santa the Christmas tree.
Despite all the efforts and resources but still lost. So, it is no bloody good Dato'. Anyway the waiting for the result was very interesting and both side deserved a loud applause as many political observers and some fence sitters are treating the political scenario in Malaysia as an entertainment as well as another casinos.
As for now it is history. Looking forward for another buy election as there are something that the rakyat will gain as an interim measures while waiting for the big one. As orang kampong I say well done to voters in Manek Urai and the message is clear don't play play with the rakyat as we can tilt the result anywhere we feel good. Take care of your health Dato'. dh9753.

Suci Dalam Debu 15 July 2009 at 16:26  


If the 65% approval rating for Najib is a true reflection of the people pf Malaysia, then the Manek Urai election would have been won outright by UMNO.

Yes, UMNO did narrow the losing margin, but narrowing it in this case is not something to be really proud of.

Ask the election commission why it was not held on a weekend. The results would have been very different indeed.

vinnan,  15 July 2009 at 17:17  

Why do people keep calling Mank Urai a PAS stronghold when they actually lost the seat in the 2004 election. Yesterday they almost lost the seat again.

Anyone care to explain?

Unknown 15 July 2009 at 17:37  

Dear Dato,

You have again written with conviction without any bias whatsoever in your assessments. Your words & thoughts are well articulated, balance and most importantly fair to the bone.

Syabas & please keep up with your tremendous writing.


Donplaypuks® 15 July 2009 at 20:38  

You are reportins as though Manchester United won 0-2 against Barcelona!

Despite the presence of 3,000 cops in a constituency of 12,000 and campaigning with the full weight of the machinery of Govt and MSM behind it, UMNO LOST!!

Seen in that light, 65 votes translates as 65,000 and the result was overwhelming, total HUMILIATION for UMNO!

And you can see UMNO's desperation with Muhy's 'promise' of a new bridge if... The M'sian voter today is a lot more savvy than befoe and will not be bought by a bunch of unprincipled politicians who take taxpayers' money and then pretend that it's coming from their pockets!

No one really buys that 65% rating or that the tide has turned when the MSM and its spin apparatus are in the hands of the incumbent Govt.

These UMNO tactics will not be sustainable for GE 2103! Watch the impending annihilation.

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 21:12  

Dato', kalau DPM betul-betul penuhi janji dia untuk bina jambatan, bukankah itu satu publisiti yang amat baik untuk BN. ia menunujukkan BN bukan hanya berjanji untuk memenangi pilihan raya, tetapi betu-betul ikhlas ingin membantu rakyat. Malah, jika seluruh Malaysia mendapat tahu bahawa BN betul-betul mengotakan janjinya walaupun kalah, saya pasti rakyat akan terkesan sedikit sebanyak, dan tidak menganggap UMNO sebagai hanya berjanji kosong. Malah, mungkin, mereka akan menegtahui bahawa UMNO juga penuh kebaikan, bukan seratus peratus kotor seperti dicanang pembangkang. Mungkin kali ini kita kalah, tapi mungkin GE akan datang, kita menang. Kalau boleh Dato suarakan kepada DPm Muhyiddin. tiada ruginya membina jambtan 7 juta jika ia dapat mengubah persepsi awam terhadap UMNO.

Admin 15 July 2009 at 21:41  

Sneer!!! Isn't this clearly a buy election. We have the shameful spectacle of a shameless DPM using our (public) money to threaten and bribe the voters. He may have the second highest post in Malaysia but he does not have my respect.

UMNO fight fair and only then if you win or lose with only a small majority will we respect you. Otherwise you may win all the elections you want but it is a sham victory.

Admin 15 July 2009 at 22:20  

There is a wise saying "Using other's backside to be their face". That is Muhyiddin - using public money to buy votes, and UMNO, using government machineries to campaign. No shame.

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 22:57  

'I hope the will be a by-election caused by a death of BN rep ' said one anon .

And you wonder why even some liberal Malays have reservations over crumbles of UMNO and prefer a unified Malay.Parties inclination is just a dressing for Malays , deep in their heart their unity is sill seeing their other brethen as Muslim. Statements like praying for a death of another Muslim or not is a big taboo among us,irregardless of their politic standing.

Keep up being reckless with words.

Jamal JB

wmasyah 15 July 2009 at 23:02  

salam, dato...most media cakap PAS hilang majoriti.tapi seperti few comment, basically kalu kita lihat manek urai dan mana mana jua pilihan raya kecil,BN mudah nak tabur janji dengan bermacam pembangunan.tapi adakah mampu buat demikian masa pilihanraya umum?cuba perhati dan ambil contoh paling mudah, batang AI, total janji =RM170juta... tapi boleh dato pergi skarang..mana projeck tu semua? janji tinggal janji...pernah tuan pergi ke sarawak, tak payah pegi jauh kepedalaman, pergi je pinggarr bandar kuching...sedih...satu sahaja saya doa, sentiasa ada ADUN yang meninggal dunia, dan dengan itu akan banyak porjeck di di janji and banya project segera akan berlaku. so bagi PR, kalau nak project kat tempat anda semua berjaya, syarat nyer, wat la benda benda yang anda bleh letak jawatan..i.e sakit ker, buat ler kes ker.. so akan ada pilihan raya kecil, kalau bleh wat 2,3 tempat serentak.. kita nak tengok how UMNo bleh wat janji.. kalu bleh biar janji berserta dengan deposit project... so not only tinggal janji

Anonymous,  16 July 2009 at 01:13  

The more pertinent question is PAS only lost 398 votes (compared to GE08) which is understandable given the mid-week voting but where did the extra 844 votes for BN come from?

Even the 2004 Pak Lah led BN juggernaut managed not more than 4400 votes (similar to 2008). Why the sudden jump on a Tuesday voting? What enticed these "voters" to come out this time around to vote for BN?

UMNO threw everything at PAS including the kitchen sink and still came up short. Pak Lah wasn't an issue this time.

It's a good wake up call for PAS nevertheless.


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