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Sakmongkol ak 47

Tuesday 14 July 2009

Judgment on Manek Urai


I have not commented nor written about Manek Urai. I am impressed by the hard work done by UMNO workers at the battle front. They are trying their best. However as the typical economist likes to put it- hard work is NECESSARY but not a SUFFICIENT factor to ensure victory.

Accordingly, here is my take. I have waited till the 11th hour so that whatever is written does not have any impact. Suppose 10,000 people come out to vote tomorrow. My prediction is PAS will get as near 6,000 votes while UMNO will get around 4000 votes. This time around PAS will have a majority of at least 2000 or more.

Here is my reasoning for thinking so.

The UMNO candidate may be the best person for this election. He is simply a person caught out in the worse of times. There seems to be general revulsion to UMNO and this observation is at odds with the comforting statement made by Hishamudin Hussein Onn.

Years of abuses and self indulgence have finally caught out UMNO. We are now paying for these indefinable abuses. They remain undefined in the sense that every imaginable complaint and loathing can be ascribed as being caused by UMNO. It's some sort of comeuppance. All these years we have laid claim to legitimacy, now, we must also bear all the ills. Blame all on he who has power.

We all believe our own hype that we are God's gift to Malayland. This has led to an almost supremacist belief that we have an inherent, almost 'divine' right to retain power at all costs. This same observation was recently made by current whipping boy of the month- Zaid Ibrahim. This has led UMNO and its leadership at all levels to adopt this arrogant assumption that only UMNO is the political force capable of offering an agenda for Malaysia and a future to Malays.

The above led UMNO to commit another fatal error. It made UMNO believed it has the monopoly on the leadership of the Malays. That led them to live out a lie that if UMNO is destroyed, then Malay future is gone.

The myth that the future of Malays is indissolubly tied with UMNO was shattered in the 12th General Elections. Every UMNO claim since independence or at least from as early as UMNO could carry out its ruling powers are now disputed; the New Economic Policy is seen as an excuse to perpetuate the economic exploitation of an elite masquerading as the vanguard of Malay interests; UMNO's claim that through the governmental powers it has helped out the Malays and because of that, the Malays are beholden, is disputed openly.

Once the myth is shattered, the Malays now realized that their destiny lies in their own hands through a struggle of self actualization.

The self induced haughtiness led UMNO to drown in its own deceit which nurtured UMNO's self-indulgent sense of indispensability and self-importance. That sense of self importance encouraged UMNO to steer the nation with a brand of leadership which can only be described as despotism.

Perhaps it is the lurking of this authoritarian ethos which explained the condescension with which UMNO views all its opponents:-

  1. Nik Aziz is described as a spiritual leader out of sync with the requirements of a temporal world,
  2. That UMNO's man has better qualifications than a fish monger and therefore by extension is a better man.
  3. The people of Manek Urai can be easily be wheedled by bullying and backhanders.

What UMNO does to the people of Manek Urai now, is yet a continuation of doing whatever is expedient to achieve its only agenda- self-preservation!

This by election is between a former employee of a federal GLC and an entrepreneur. To be exact, the latter is dismissively termed as a wholesale fishmonger. Ahmad Maslan calls him a peraih ikan- suggesting a negative ring to it. That earned him the wrath of the other fishmongers in Manek Urai. You can bet, UMNO will not be getting votes from this group.

The people of Kelantan and Manek Urai are fiercely entrepreneurial by nature. They have this independent streak in them. From a personal preference standpoint alone, that would place the PAS candidate in consonance with the prevailing psychology.

The biggest mistake is asking the people of Manek Urai to sacrifice Nik Aziz. I asked an UMNO leader in Kelantan who is feverishly working in this by election, what is the final weapon that you can use? You can't bribe the Kelantanese with promises of development. The RM7 million bridge, mosques here and there. Kelantan has yearly revenue of what? 400-500 million a year? After spending on operating expenditure, what amount do you have left to do CAPEX and development?

This is where the federal government plays a role to assist a state which is part of Malaysia. The BN government could have used this role in some smart ways to gain support. If it has not gained support, then you can only conclude that the federal agencies operating in Kelantan have been toeing the officious line. Not good for earning support. Being part of government machinery that is seen as largely discriminatory, actually becomes a disadvantage for Tuan Aziz, our candidate.

You can no longer make threats. You cannot justifiably berate your opponent because he has a different means of making a living. Doing business can easily be claimed as following the Prophet's footsteps. Nabi Muhammad was a businessman before he was made prophet.

So what do you do?

We will tell the people of Manek Urai this. Please give face to PM Najib. Give him a first win so that he, our Malay brother, can stand as tall and sit as equals.

So I asked- you mean, in other words you are going to say, give face to DS Najib by dropping the water face of Nk Aziz? That's Hobson's choice for you.



. 14 July 2009 at 03:49  

Well said, Dato. Hopefully someone is listening.

Fairplay,  14 July 2009 at 08:12  

I really enjoy reading your blog. All your comments and criticism come across as constructive and sincere and impartial and that's what we Malaysians need.
Thank you.

walla 14 July 2009 at 08:52  

Will those mattresses for the police on standby be recycled for the next by-elections?

Anonymous,  14 July 2009 at 09:02  

UMNO leaders are just ignorant or they are simply arrogant.Being in power for the last 50 over years and yet they continue to misread and misunderstand the people of Kelantan. Tough luck Mr. PM. The writing is on the wall.dh9753.

kuldeep 14 July 2009 at 09:12  

Its a long road for BN to regain the affection of the "disillusioned" sectors of the populace.

Rebranding by mere sloganeering and PR exercises will not work.

As an example when the PM had his walkabout it was really a positive BUT when he and the Press keeps harping on the rakyat centric walkabouts;it became nothing more than just another PR exercise.It just makes us think..why can't our own elected reps and our PAID govt officers initiate the PuduRaya,Vista,Brickfields initiatives?If it needed the PM to ensure painting jobs gets done..then lots of ppl should be out of their jobs.Thus,gradually the walkabouts value is slowly eroding.

BN have to tackle the REAL job of running the country.

People needs jobs and lower cost living to ensure they can survive till the next pay packets.
People needs to see fairness of the Govt institutions.Its blatant that a RM 24 m palace is regarded less serious than a few cows.
People needs schools that teach..not experiment with our kids.
People need good public transport not NEW BIG capital spending(that will be realised only in years) but incrementals like buying more coaches,hands on mgmt to alleviate the current passenger squeeze on LRTs and KTMs.
People want efficient courts that gives early dates and listens.We do not want courts that takes years for simple cases.We want judges that judge and reprimand lawyers that misbehave and drag issues to prolong judgement.
We want to have access to more Senior Govt servants if we are not satisfied with the juniors.In a commercial world,consumers can just change providers i.e switch to Maxis if Celcom is not responsive.I can't switch govts?
People need wakil rakyats that listen..not treat us like beggars to be given pennies.We want to tell you what to do and not otherwise>>we elected you to listen to us NOT to tell us what ungrateful swines we are and how thotful you are.DO you realise we are paying your salaries?
People need a govt who worries about much as we are about making our household budget.We don't want palatial schools,offices,big launching >>we want good education,good service and proper dissemination of information (transparency...hahaha?)
A long list of "wants"..not the 20% toll discounts for sure.

Its a long2 way and right now its just not working.

Anonymous,  14 July 2009 at 11:31  

There is only one way for UMNO to stay in power.

1) Make sure Sabah and Sarawak stays loyal.

They may just barely make it past PRU 13 with the East Malaysians.

I think in Peninsular, they will be absolutely massacred in PRU 13.

Anonymous,  14 July 2009 at 13:49  

This time once again you akayed umno's invincibility!Excellent and constructive analysis which i always look forward to.

Greenbug 14 July 2009 at 15:51  

I think UMNO has lost the touch with the common folks. This Manek Urai by-election, we can see them being arrogant and boastful I see DPM's conditional offer of bridge as arrogance. This looks like the beginning of the end for UMNO in the rural hinterlands.

Anonymous,  14 July 2009 at 17:01  

the question that remains to be answered is why are you still with Umno?

Anonymous,  14 July 2009 at 19:38  

The only way for BN to come back is to SACK all their head honchos who are living beyond their means ( or amassed wealth) and cannot provide a rational justification of their other sources of income apart from their published salaries.

This process of cleansing should be done immediately AND must be led by a team of the most pure BN stalwarts.Have a team of account forensics experts,property valuers,tax specialists,legal specialists...

Those who fear the detailed analysis of their wealth can bail out before the process begins.

I volunteer to do the grunt work.

Cleanser Boy

kuldeep 14 July 2009 at 20:11  

manek urai is pretty UMNO back on track?Or is the association of PAS with PR eroding the unique position of PAS?

Look fwd to a reasoned unbiased analysis but sample size of 12k is easier to skew.

chapchai 14 July 2009 at 21:52  

I didn't realise that elections have anything to do with saving face?

Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 03:46  

Kalau betul betul UMNO memperjuangkan orang Melayu katakan kota.

Manik Urai kawasan Melayu jadi tolonglah orang Melayu disini.

Ini tidak, kerana PAS memerintah semua saluran wang di kurangkan atau dihapuskan.

Ini yg baru betul Melayu bunuh Melayu.


Anonymous,  15 July 2009 at 10:57  

Its a by election..the full might of UMNO aka the Federal Government is focussed on 12,000 voters but yet can only capture the hearts and minds of only 5200.

If you call that a victory then losing 6 nil to a non competitive,holiday mood Man Utd on the 18thJuly will be another success story?

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