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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Thursday 24 November 2011

The 13th GE: Its an open field.

Rahim Tamby Chik( RTC) says there are attempts by the opposition  parties to invite Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to become PM. This will happen Rahim says, if there is a hung parliament. Such a situation is untenable says Rahim because it will create political instability. So UMNO must work hard to get a 2/3rd majority.

Those were the observations and musings by (RTC) on the political possibilities after the GE13. What is intriguing was his warning that a hung parliament will create instability. I hope we will not be in such a situation. Malaysians would prefer a clear cut victory one way or the other.

I am not going to respond to his nervous prognosis; being more interested on how such a scenario can possibly happen and what are the implications if it does. I don’t think we are going to have a hung parliament. It will be clear cut either way. I am also bemused at his attempt to involve Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in such a scenario. To qualify as a participant in any future negotiations should a hung parliament comes into being, TRH must be head of a political party. Right now, TRH is in UMNO and doesn’t head a party nor is he a leader of any faction in UMNO. Could Rahim’s advice be another attempt to isolate TRH from UMNO?

TRH is far too principled to agree being appointed as leader of government on a personal to holder basis. He will be a figurehead.  Oh, because Tengku has never disowned the ambitions to become PM, comes the answer from UMNO people. So my answer is- why should he not have that ambition? He was cheated to becoming one before. He has all the credentials to become one.

Here is an interesting piece of information. When certain UMNO people wanted to kick out Abdullah Badawi , they approached Tengku Razaleigh for a solution. Their agenda was only one- because of Najib’s hesitation they went to see Razaleigh asking him to stand as UMNO president and Muhyidin as Deputy President. This group was made up of powerful people, united at that time, by their intense disapproval and loathing of Dollah Badawi. My point is this- at that time, they didn’t think it was inappropriate for Tengku Razaleigh to become UMNO president and if he had won, go on to become PM. Tengku’s ambition wasn’t an issue. His age wasn’t an issue. The fundamental objective was to remove Pak Lah.

Why should the opposition parties invite Tengku Razaleigh to become PM, if they could win the elections on their own? PAS has Haji Hadi, DAP has Lim Guan Eng and PKR has Anwar Ibrahim? This assessment presupposes that between the 3, neither one accepts the leader of each party as a future PM.  It also assumes further, that Tengku Razaleigh commands a number of elected MPs to give him standing in future negotiations. Where will he get the MPs? Rahim says 20-30 people are being lined up to stand as MPs who are aligned to Tengku Razaleigh. Where are these people? In UMNO? Within the opposition camp?

So now, let us build up a case, why a hung parliament cannot happen. Just for the moment, let’s not talk about how UMNO and BN can lose. Let’s talk about HOW the opposition- DAP, PAS, PKR can WIN.  Let’s begin by asking, will the PR lose its current 82 seats? Possible, but very unlikely. The seats which they lost when some people jumped ship, will become theirs again. We won’t see the likes of Zahrain and his types in parliament again.

DAP.

DAP now has 28 seats in parliament. DAP has gained substantial ground with Chinese voters. Chinese voters identify more with DAP. By and large the Chinese do not require the intervention and involvement of the government to improve their wellbeing. They got to where they are now, largely by their own efforts and independence. They want to preserve and reinforce that independent streak. How best for them to do that? By staking their future in a party that best represents the independence streak. They don’t want a sissy party perceived as easily compromised, intimidated or even bought over to represent them. DAP is their preferred choice.

I mean that is the reason driving Hishamudin pondering a move from Sembrong to Kota Tinggi. To the Chinese in Sembrong, and this doesn’t please me in saying, Hishamudin is irrelevant to them. He knows if he stays in Sembrong, he can kiss his seat goodbye. They want to kick the ass of the man with the monkey grin.

The Chinese are less dependent on the government and by government, I mean the BN. they need champions for other requirements and that they find in DAP. So the DAP will more or less pummel MCA to the ground. They will take most of the 15 seats the MCA won in the 2008 elections. At the very best, MCA can retain 3 seats. The worst case scenario is, MCA wins nothing. The DAP will increase its seats by another 12 in Semenanjung. It gobbles up most of the seats now held by MCA.

Why will DAP win over the MCA? Because the Chinese believe MCA has sold them out. Not necessarily by kowtowing to big brother UMNO over many issues, but by retreating from representing the indomitable spirit of the Chinese. MCA has lost its mandate. That’s how DAP is winning the Chinese over- where MCA failed.

On a more simplistic reasoning, the Chinese who have traditionally supported MCA are asking- how come almost all our Chinese MCA leaders are being persecuted and prosecuted by the Courts once they leave office? How come UMNO leaders who do or are alleged to be doing the same things are not? They know Malay leaders stole and swindled more.

What about the DAP in Sarawak?  Generally speaking, the urban seats will be taken up by the DAP. That will be another 8 or 9 seats for the DAP. The seats held currently by SUPP will end up in DAP’s hands. The DAP will get around 20 seats more than they got in 2008.  This time around, DAP will be in parliament with probably 46-48 seats.

The newer and younger DAP leadership is taking on Malaysian politics with more finesse and it doesn’t now intimidate modern thinking Malays as the older generation of DAP leaders once did. And it has shed its umbilical connections with the PAP. So now, if there are attempts for example to link DAP as a stool or Trojan horse to Singapore’s PAP, such attempts will be laughed at.

PAS.

It’s difficult to dislodge PAS from where they are now. Has any elected PAS rep jumped ship? This means, PAS has been careful to select leaders on the basis of each having convictions and intense belief. It will likely do the same thing for the 13GE. 

How can PAS win? It’s difficult for its opponent to dislodge PAS in its traditional role as champions for Islam and serving as the emotional anchor for conservative Malays. It will retain the many seats it now has in Kelantan. It will gain more seats in Terengganu which is expected to go back to PAS this time around. Some of the seats in Kedah for example, currently held by MCA  and UMNO will be won by PAS. The seat now occupied by MCA’s Chor will be lost to PAS. PAS can win because it’s organized and is motivated by convictions. This is what sets it apart from UMNO.

They are not out for personal glory and gratification. They have got a number of secular liberals in the party who can attract younger Malay voters. They will attract the serious thinkers among the younger Malay crowd who are not included in the tweeting about football or about Elton John variety.

PAS currently has 23 seats in parliament. It will secure a large number in Terengganu, maybe 1 seat in Pahang, 3 in Kedah. My guess is they will increase their seats by another 7-8. PAS will enter the next parliament with around 30-31 seats.

PKR.

What about PKR? I thought PKR is the weak link in PR. Let’s not forget it won 31 seats in the 2008 elections.  Those who jumped ship are either ex UMNO members (that tells us much about the quality and resolve of UMNO members) and those who were selected on the basis of urgency and expedience. The ‘fluid’ candidates will be removed this time around, and it is likely that PKR will select candidates with firmer constitution. PKR will secure a number of seats in Sarawak taking away seats from SPDP and PRS. Baru Bian will spearhead PKR’s drive in Sarawak. I am thinking that PKR will still enter parliament with around 33-35 seats.

Let’s take the worst case scenario. DAP= 46, PAS= 30, PKR= 33. The opposition has 109 seats. They are short of 3 seats to secure the majority.

We haven’t included Sabah in our discussion. With the disenchantment towards Musa Aman, it’s unlikely that UMNO Sabah can retain all its seats it currently has. Unless of course they pay the voters in their constituencies. The non UMNO parties in Sabah are increasingly less enamored with Musa Aman and they can’t defend their positions by sticking around with Mr. Vacuum Cleaner. The opposition will probably gain around 6 seats outright.

To me Sabah is the powder keg. It’s likely to blow in the face of BN. the non-Malay indigenous people of Sabah are likely to pressure their parties to abandon BN. they have had numerous UMNO leaders leading them in the past, all they got was continued marginalization. They don’t see development in their areas. They don’t see electricity and roads and clean water after years of BN rule.  It’s therefore possible for us to see 8-10 seats migrating to PR’s camp.  We can say that around 14-16 seats from Sabah alone are PR inclined.

My own personal observations about the coming 13th GE is as follows- PR 118-125 seats. UMNO/BN= 98-104 seats.

There won’t be a hung parliament.

39 comments:

OneMalaysian,  24 November 2011 at 12:59  

Dear Sakmongkol

You’ve got your finger on the GE pulse all right, but you are more sanguine than I on a PR win. I think PR will certainly do better this time around, but winning outright might be a bridge too far, though of course, that is my hope.

Yes, you are quite right about DAP’s performance. They will do better because of massive Chinese and urban voter support. MCA and Gerakan are marching towards Dodoland. I cannot tell how PAS will fare, but because of the rise of more professionals and liberals in the party, I presume they will attract both new Malay and Chinese voters, so a few more seats to them. As for PKR, I have no feel at all, but I guess they could hardly do worse.

Much will pivot around what happens in the rural seats in Sabah and Sarawak where money can easily influence voting behaviour, which is much harder to do in Semenanjung.

I have great respect for Tengku Razaleigh. But the gentleman-prince must show leadership. He cannot hedge his bets forever. The current UMNO is not the UMNO he joined decades ago. It is a mere façade that hides a rotten core in which a band of thieves shelter. Staying put in UMNO is not being “true to principles”. It shows a lack of decisiveness to act in the face of political reality. If he ever wants to be PM he must leave UMNO now and join PR.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 13:13  

Dato',

What about the likes of Ibrahim Ali, Zulkifli Nordin and Hasan Ali who contested and won on PAS tickets in the last GE? Will PAS again make the same mistake of fielding these type opportunists/bigots?

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 14:15  

Dato',

I think you are being too pessimistic about BN winning the 13th GE.
Have you factored in the usual 'buy-elections' and the 5% electoral fraud for marginal seats?

Red Alfa 24 November 2011 at 14:15  

Salam Dato'

By your (and probably by most of us, also) calculation it would be a PR Parliament after GE 13.

Like PM Haji Najib haddn't known exactly this outcome when he said he will keep Putrajaya at all costs?

Be sure where those seats could possibly be lost will there be more of the shenigans!

Come day after GE 13, we had believed stolen elections only happened in other countries!

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 14:32  

I really wish your prediction will turn to be true

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 16:44  

Deny them 2/3rds majority! But be wary of the trouble makers (read sore losers) creating chaos.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 16:59  

Dato' I don't think your predictions will come rue because as I can see there are still quite a number of Malaysia in the kampung still voting for BN. Just my opinion.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 17:10  

Dear Sir,
As a faithful follower of your blog, i would like to analyse your analysis...
I am really sorry to say that your article completely fails to understand the sentiments in the ground. I just feel that you're writing an article to create a strong sense of anxiety for UMNO and BN so as to galvinize them to take 13th GE more seriously. This is not a proper analysis.
Based on the latest figure calculated by relevant authority. PKR can only retain 16 seats at most, DAP 34 and PAS 18 seats.

Malaysian 24 November 2011 at 18:01  

Dato

Let's hope with PR win this coming election so that UMNO will learn from its mistakes. I am not a Malay or supporter of UMNO but I do wish a more principle and caring UMNO party. I want UMNO to reform, stop racism, and corruption. I want an UMNO party that can offer better future not to Malay only but every Malaysian. Malaysia badly needed political party that serve the people. In order to ensure Malaysia to survive, I want the old UMNO that was founded by our founding fathers. I want UMNO leader like Tengku Razaleigh, Tun Dr. Ismail. Tunku Abdul Rahmane, etc. Let's pray that UMNO lost this coming election and a better future for UMNO.

Salam

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 18:12  

I am inclined to agree with what you say. MCA is finished and by that I meant they will not win more than three or four seats, if any at all. Umno is in disarray with so many problems pledging them. The worst is that the public are really fed up with their dishonesty and their arrogance in treating them with disdain and robbing them blind without impunity or shame. Personally, I just can't wait to cast my vote for a new government.

- Ikan Tongkol -,  24 November 2011 at 18:24  

Nah,

I doubt so PKR gonna win that many seats.

Sabahans ain't that hungry and desperate just yet.

It still will be UMNO landslide.

this GE will be the battle of the Wealth VS Poor.

Last 2008 GE was merely Geram Erection to kick out Pok Lah
Had-Hari.

May the best brains wins this one.

Notice Brader Damage goods Anwar is on silent mode now?

Najib has to take this as a good momentum and proceed cautiously as well kick some of his existing cabinet.

Pak Din is waiting patiently to be the next numero uno.

- Ikan Tongkol -

joehancl/PRAY, it works,  24 November 2011 at 19:08  

You write as one in the know. My hope(and prayer) is what you write comes true.

mattsalleh 24 November 2011 at 19:29  

I have read some of your articles which have consistently revealed well researched and articulate reasoning. IT is a joy reading your blog. Keep it up and thank you very much for your effort and time.
I pray that you are right in your analysis of the 13th GE

mattsalleh 24 November 2011 at 19:34  

Well spoken. It is always a pleasure reading your blog.

Your articles are direct to the point and easy to understand, and reasoning are articulated.

KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK, AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR DEDICATION.

Ahmad Syafiq 24 November 2011 at 19:50  

You're overestimating the opposition's chances in the next GE. I can't really foresee how PAS can actually reduce the gap to UMNO in Terengganu, let alone win it.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 21:16  

I fear even dap cannot beat the postal votes

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 21:48  

PR can forget about GE 13, BN will win hand down.

why? simple, with so many new voters created in the recent registration of foreign workers and so on, with all these magicians working in EC and whatnot, it is impossible for BN to lose the election.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 21:52  

I am so elated to read this post and I hope you are right.
And I think you are right because you seem to have very strong connections everywhere.
Besides you are also a very seasoned politician.
May your predictions come true.

Old Fart 24 November 2011 at 22:00  

If PAS makes the mistake of putting up Hasan Ali, not only he, but I think other PAS candidates too may be made to pay for it.

bruno,  24 November 2011 at 22:08  

Dato,first of all RTC would be better off tending to the cheap brothels above the kopitiams of Pudu or Chow Kit pimping off old over the hill's ayams.The people frequenting his joints would be all ears to his past history of raping underage schoolgirls,instead of being a professional political analyst.

This coming GE will in the end come down to vote buying and indeligible ink.Umno will have lots of cash stashed away by now.At least tens of billions by GLC's and their corrupted cronies,the likes of VT,FY and gang of Mohds and Lahs.

Indeligible ink will not be used in this coming GE because it will hamper vote buying and double or triple voting.If indeligible ink is allowed even hundreds of billions will not save Umno.So in the end it will depend on how far the vote buying and cheating will effect the elections.

As far as MCA is concern,even their leaders know that they have been totally written off by the Chinese community.CSL and LTL will lose even if Umno allowed them to stand in 100% Umno Malay majority areas.That is how bad the Chinese perceived the good for nothing MCA.Mic might win maybe 1 or 2 seats as the Indians are an unpredicable community.You dangle a few carrots in front of them and a new cleansed Samy Ulu has arrived or returned.Gerakan will end up with a big duck's egg.

Maybe this coming GE will need tens of thousands of foreign observers and UN troops to keep check on cheating.As this election is do or die for BN,the Rela goons and Mat Rempits will be going all out to intimidate the voters.Hishamuddin and Muhyiddin sure will need a lot of help from this bunch of thugs.Shahrizat then will have to depend on the NFC cows if she has the thick cow's hide to stand.Thamby Chik will need underaged schoolgirl's to help him.KJ will need schoolkids of LGE's son's age to help him.With this crowd backing Najib,Umno and BN is doomed.

flyer168 24 November 2011 at 22:41  

"The 13th GE: Its an open field."

Dato' Sak,

I like your conclusion...

"My own personal observations about the coming 13th GE is as follows- PR 118-125 seats. UMNO/BN= 98-104 seats.

There won’t be a hung parliament."

Great, let us all Malaysians work on it, Pronto !

We have to get rid of "Deadwood" Recycled Politicians...

Groom new Political Statesmen of Honour like Penang CM LGE, YB Tony Pua, YB Nurul, etc.

Please read Tony Pua - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Pua

There are many good lessons & models to be "Learnt" from....

Many "Seccessful International Leaders" and their nations....

Just to share this...

‪Lee Kuan Yew - Interview with Fareed Zakaria‬‏ - YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...re=related

CNN's Fareed Zakaria talks with Lee Kuan Yew about his life as prime minister of Singapore, the revival of China, War on terror, Freedom Agenda and even the recent Georgian conflict. This is a two part series...

I am a “Social Darwinist”
The Survival requires you to Change…
If you don’t Change, you will be “Marginalised”
Then you will become Extinct”…

Singapore: Lee Kwan Yew: At 85, The Fire Still Burns By Ahmad Mustapha « Blog yOur Mind - http://all4one4all.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/singapore-lee-kwan-yew-at-85-the-fire-still-burns-by-ahmad-mustapha/

"It is impossible to compare what Singapore has achieved to what all these four countries had so far achieved. It was actually poor management and corruption, and nothing more. Everything is done for the vested interest of the few.

Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines and the Sultanate of Brunei need good management teams. They would not be able to do this on their own steam. I would advise that they call on Kuan Yew to show them what good governance is. Why look East to Japan when it is just next door. Across the causeway.”

‪Lee Kuan Yew Ketawakan Malaysia‬‏ - YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUMwWs44zvg

You be the judge.

Shalom.

Anonymous,  24 November 2011 at 23:53  

If PR wins, many Sultans will frus, that's for sure. So how will their highnesses (small h) react to prevent a PR victory?

Even if PR wins, can they rule and rule in peace? Remember there are 1 million UMNO sympathisers in the civil service. And UMNO is also a very poor loser who will not sit still but will play dirty.

Quiet Despair,  24 November 2011 at 23:59  

Wowo Sak, biar betul. You are stretching too far on your prediction of a PKR victory.
You want it to happen. But the reality is that's not gonna happen.
It will be a clear victory for BN. I predict PR will get around 78 to 89 seats only.
To be exact I think DAP will get 35, PAS 25 and PKR 20. Only DAP will get MPS in Sabah and Sarawak. That too only 3 in Sarawak and maybe 2 in Sabah.
I think BN is poised to recapture Selangor and Kedah. The only two states that will remain in PKR is Penang and Kelantan.
Yes there will not be a hung parliament. I wonder why you were carrying on the permutations of the possibility of a hung parliament in your earlier posting.
RTC is like me who fear such a scenario may happen and is toying of an alternative step.
It will not be necessary to seek Ku Li as the alternative PM since he is still in UMNO and will not lawan tauke.
I pray that the 3rd force with the likes of people like Zaid Ibrahim, Harris Ibrahim, Ambiga etc will join the fray.
They will do a good service to BN as the opposition votes will be split.
Thanks in advance.
But this GE will be the most interesting since it's not only an open field but a very crowded one.
If you meet Anu-war please tell him do not contest if he sincerely loves his party.
Have pity for the party who will have a tough time defending him.
If he quits the race, he can get sympathy votes for PKR. He can use the tactic of an honorable sacrifice for the party.
Better still he can ride on his jail term in Sg Buloh which disqualifies him from contesting.
And there is no such thing as ruling in absentia. No Malaysian can accept a PM governing from prison.

Anonymous,  25 November 2011 at 01:24  

Dato,

Jika PRU ke-13 ini dilaksanakan secara adil saya rasa prediction Dato akan menjadi satu reality.

Tapi dengan adanya undi pos,undi hantu serta sogokkan $$$$$ agak susah sikit PR mencapai cita2 mereka.

Namun,jika PR berkerja lebih kuat daripada biasa,saya pasti PR boleh menaklukki Putrajaya.

Biasanya UMNO/BN dalam setiap PRU begitu confident mereka menang besar. Mungkin pasa masa dulu,
rakyat begitu yakin UMNO/BN adalah pilihan terbaik.

Tapi kini,bila kerajaan2 PR di Kedah,Penang,Selangor dan Kelantan boleh menunjukkan prestasi yang lebih baik daripada negeri2 di bawah UMNO/BN yang lain,rakyat sudah ada alternative lain.

Berlandasakan ini,saya rasa PR bukan saja sekadar menawan Putrajaya malah boleh menawan beberapa negeri lain seperti N.Sembilan,Perak,Perlis dan Terengganu dan kekal memerintah di Penang,Kelantan,Kedah dan Selangor.

Rakyat kini bukan buta. Yang buta adalah orang2 UMNO sendiri yang tak sedar mereka sedang dipermainkan oleh pemimpin2 UMNO yang begitu gila dan rakus mahu kaut keuntungan berbilion2 melalui projek2 mega seperti NFC,PKFZ dll.

Kautlah sepuas2 hati,agar satu hari nanti saya boleh melawat tuan2 dan puan2 di Sungai Buloh!!!

UMNO63.

Anonymous,  25 November 2011 at 07:32  

I fully agree with Flyer168. I mirror his comments ! Thanks Flyer168 !

stk,  25 November 2011 at 09:26  

Dear Sakmongkol,
A nice one about the minister with a monkey grin and mouth of a chicken arse.He is one of the worst minister I ever come across.
He has no intergrity and he lied all the time like his cousin.
As if BN has run out of intelligent candidates,oh ya ,BN don't have one either.

Anonymous,  25 November 2011 at 09:31  

Dear Dato

I think you have understmated the hanky panky that will take place to ensure BN win PRU 13. But then again, I really hope what you predicted comes to fruition, otherwise, this beloved and most blessed country of ours is going to be in a big mess in the not too distant future, resulting in much hardship for the unfortunate rakyat of all races.

Anonymous,  25 November 2011 at 09:54  

Quiet Despair,

1st, ‘there is no such thing as ruling in absentia.’

R u talking through yr other orifice? There r many precedents all over the world, even in bolihland!

The May13 propagator, harun, was one. he was jailed by T Hussein Onn, when he cbt’ed the bank rakyat’s money for a syok-sendiri boxing match. Yet he was elected to lead umno youth!

2nd, ‘No Malaysian can accept a PM governing from prison.’

R u talking for yrself & yr gang of preferred wealth squanders?

There is always an exception, just like in harun’s case.

Perhaps within the comfort of that tempurung that u r manipulating yr pilferage off the country’s wealth, u cant see any further than those NFC cows that lies with u?

Anonymous,  25 November 2011 at 11:02  

That's some kind of a forecast on the margin of victory by Pakatan Rakyat.

Either this will spur UMNO/BN to workk doubly hard or fade into oblivion. In the light of what has been said by TDM, UMNO should be wise enough to choose the former if it still wants to continue to be relevant.

History has shown that parties that successfuly fought for independence could hardly survive if they don't change with time.

ZMS

Alex Tan 25 November 2011 at 12:40  

Dear Sir,

I don't think BN can lose, at least not so soon. With the present electoral system, decades of gerrymandering, vote buying etc, and as long as the rural people and poor still have enough to eat, BN will still reign. Not until the system is reformed or when children are crying for milk can BN be dislodged.

Alex.

bruno,  25 November 2011 at 21:47  

Dato,chief secretary to GOM Tan Sri Sidek Hassan said that Malaysia needs only two years to break into the top ten most competitive countries list of the world bank.How can a country be competitive when corruption is getting totally out of control.

Does the CS not know that rampant corruption,from the eighties till today has set the country back thirty years from achieving it's developing nation status goals.Does the CS not know that if BN wins GE 13th,in 2020 Malaysia will not only not achieved developing nation status but will achieved a bankrupt nation's status.What a moron of a CS to the GOM.A potential member of the NFC club of lembus.

walla 25 November 2011 at 22:17  

A: 'Sir, do you think parliament will be hung in the next general elections?'

B: '(eyes glaze over...) No, Sofea, but i can imagine the hanging of a few parliamentarians. Kekeke.'

A: 'Err, seriously speaking, what do you think of our blogger's forecast?'

B: 'Strange that you should ask, Sofea. Doesn't it remind you of that field report?'

A: '(eyes open wide, conspiratorial tone).. You mean that..?!'

B: 'Of course. Why else would a porn producer be given the nod to talk about political instability? Trying to save an Umno when he was one of the reasons for its downfall? And since when has he become so versatile that he can provide political advice?

Yes, Umno is desperate because it too had come to the same forecast as our felicitously intelligent blogger.'

A: 'But what will happen if, let's say, parliament is hung?'

B: 'Umno won't allow it to happen. Postal and marginal votes will be loaded, overseas votes will be blocked, and cheques will be waved at vote brokers, especially those sycophants in the hinterlands. Heck, they will even shift the entire army camp brick by brick at night with the owls as the only witness.'

A: 'Hmm, are you hinting Umno will call for elections before the parliamentary select committee decides on the electoral reforms?'

B: 'Sofea, do you honestly think they will allow electoral reforms to be completed before the elections take place when, as you can see for yourself, Najib and gang have been playing taiqi with the rakyat? Those buffalos in the committee are no different from those kerbaus in the PAC who are no different from those nyatoh logs in all the various royal commissions.

Girl, do you know a biology teacher? We are fast running out of animals and other species.'

A: 'Ah, i see where you're coming from! The dictatorial terms of the Assembly Bill, the ridiculous appeal against the UUCA decision, the ambivalent repeal of the ISA, even the anti-PPSMI covert actions of the MOE!

Najib must be needing some bonjela for his split tongue.

World-class democracy, indeed!'

B: 'Sofea, remember how he had showed he valued more being agreeable to his deputy than to the rakyat?

You know, a PM can fire his deputy for incompetence so what's the beef? Oops, forgive me, pardon the pun, jejeje!'

A: '(chortles..) You're incorrigible, Sir! Were you thinking of the PPSMI fiasco?'

B: 'More, Sofea. I was thinking of Sibu and Kelantan.

You see, Najib knew he snafu-ed himself in Sibu with the bribe of development for votes. It was all over youtube and therefore the whole world. One would have expected his deputy and the rest to have learned the lesson by now.

So, can you explain why the alfalfa connoisseur from Pagoh had the temerity and brazen arrogance to taunt the people of Kelantan that only if they vote for Umno will they get clean water?

Imagine that! That was the Umno Deputy President and the country's DPM talking.

How can he still be carrying that kind of low-life mindset around?! Has he no shame knowing he was actually arm-twisting the rakyat by withholding their own ehsan money? Has he no bloody heart as an MOE in charge of children to allow for even one more minute the unacceptable situation of dirty water for the folks of Kelate? Why didn't he take back a few bottles of the water there and ask the maid to make milk for his grandchildren?!'

A: 'Whoaa, Sir! Please be careful. Your heart condition..'

B: '(waves hand..). Sofea, long ago i had already left my heart at Pantai Cinta Berahi.'

A: '(eyes hood a bit, eyelashes bat some too..)..Hmm, Sir, was she pretty?'

B: '(sighs..) Her smile could melt even the heart of a himalayan tiger.'

A: 'In that case, all the more reason you should not lose your temper when you've become a pussycat, Sir.'

walla 25 November 2011 at 22:18  

2/3

B: 'Me? Even the dead will rise from their graves looking at the completely fucked up situation in this country.

Sofea, the clarion call for the last general elections was "enough is enough".

I think the next one, GE13, it must be "this is the last fxxxing straw!"

The rakyat must make their stand now. Don't wait for the next quarter. Don't let this bunch of bastards bully the rakyat anymore.

Let me ask you. Don't you think Shahrizat would be considered low on the pecking order of the Umno supreme council?

So if her family can get a loan of RM250 million of the rakyats' money with such benign conditions it is actually a freeloading grant, how much would each other Umno supreme council leader all the way up that pecking order have gotten for every year back for thirty years of their piratical administration? Go ahead, make my day, gimme an answer.

No-lah, Sofea. The rakyat have had it up to here. It's the last straw.

Just as Deros was to GE12 and Toyo was after GE12, let this Shahrizat exposure be for GE13.

You can add Najib, Muhyiddin, Hishamuddin, Hamidi, Khairy, Mukhriz, Rustam, Ibrahim Ali, Ezam Noor, Hassan Ali, all the toads and the rest of the jokers if you like. They are all the same. In a land of sheep, there will be wolves.'

A: 'But the rakyat are stupid, Sir. Especially those who are the Umno general members and those who are in the rural areas.

Their minds are closed even when their eyes and ears have told them since long ago that the rakyat and country have been ripped off.

They convince themselves in their narrow comfort that they don't want to make a decision, even when their children return from the cities with the photos of Bersih 2.0 and information on all the scandals, escapades, siphoning and double standards.'

walla 25 November 2011 at 22:18  

3/3

B: 'That's why Umno is trying to block Bersih 3.0 from taking place and to prevent the young from massing their resistance.

They want to prevent a local version of the Arab Spring which will certainly evict the bloody whole lot of scoundrels from office.

The stupid idiots in the rural heartlands should ask themselves one simple question - If there's no wrong done, why the fears, lies, deflections and double-standards?

Just one simple question but it seems their brain is too small even for that. Hopeless future, Sofea.

Those who have had the privilege had seen in that report the writing on the wall and it clearly spelled the party's epitaph, despite the pretentious enthusiasm shown by each of his representatives.

Najib has known this for a long time. It therefore leaves nothing to imagination that what they have been doing so far ever since those MP interviews is only to extend one hand to you but withdraw the other hand away. There is no embrace - just leading the rakyat like cattle to the slaughterhouse.

Sofea, the words of Najib, for that matter every member of his cabinet, are murkier than the waters of Kelantan.

So, how can the rakyat countenance this type of government?

Make that massive swing in the next general elections. Push them out.

Some have said better the devil you know than don't. Applied here, that's a cheap cliche.

Are there devils in Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, Selangor and FT? Because of the cleaning process and the banishment bill, they have all migrated to the federal states.

Otherwise how do you explain all the flip-flopping federal orders? Jinked, no?!'

Sofea, they're just bullshitting. Listen to that Zamry present his pompous state progress report. It should have just consisted of one word. In fact a full-stop will do. Like this '.' See?

A: 'Sir, i wonder when they leave their politics behind and enter our mosques to pray side by side other muslims from the opposition, what goes on in their hearts?'

B: 'I don't know about their hearts. But i know what their ears will be listening to.'

A: 'And what's that, Sir?'

B: 'The cash register ringing.

Good night, Sofea.'

Anonymous,  26 November 2011 at 20:41  

Dear Walla,
back to your inimitable style with Sofea your alter ego! We love the way you write, yes, the truth is always out there, and now it is up to us to do what has to be done.
Btw, it is really unimaginable the DPM could be so heartless and shameless to the people and children of Kelantan, what more to the rest of the citizens of this country who have withdrawn their support of him and his ilk. This is not a bully world anymore.

Anonymous,  27 November 2011 at 00:05  

dato' not with you on this.

BN will win but without the craved 2/3 majority. question is will 1st lady together with his flip flop hubby be kicked out? of course, by UMNO.

ordinary malaysian 27 November 2011 at 05:01  

Dato, have you factored in vote rigging?

Anonymous,  28 November 2011 at 00:08  

Unless the electoral rolls are washed clinically,I have doubts over this optimism.

Kampong man,  8 December 2011 at 09:00  

I do need agree with Sak analysis .I think it is overblown to satisfy your supporters here.Since when has the opposition manage to govern Malaysia.Do not be carried away by that little success of 2008 where the scenario was different that DSAI was seen victim of the ruling party.He gained sympathy for this to the extent that the naive Nurul won her a parliament seat.The street rallies too played a major factor for the swing.
I read your articles in your blog .Whilst I see certain good reasoning I think the UMNO bashing is a bit OVERDOSE to the extent of sheer exaggeration to get the nodding of PR supporters here.
I do agree that the Chinese will be mostly behind DAP this time around leaving MCA and GERAKAN dry but DAP could not possibly secure more than 40 MP seats ! and of course with PAS a hardly 28 seats and of course the poor PKR at most 20.This is not even enough to deny the BN the two third majority let alone marching to PUTRAJAYA .The civil servants will be behind BN.The protest BN voters especially of UMNO will not exist anymore.The chauvanistic DAP continued defiance of the Malays special rights in the constitution,the Chinese arrogance on the use of Bahasa Malaysia in schools ,The DAP racial sentiment approach to win votes,the lack of respect for the Royal institution by you know who ,the negative and the belittling remarks on the Malays by certain people here and everywhere are all elements working against PR,believe me.
The majority Malays are seeing and observing your behaviour and this will be translated in votes soon.
PR need to do more streets rallies like before to win elections like Libya,Egypt and those Arab Spring.Otherwise it will be an uphill task for PR if my mathematics is right.Mathematician do not have emotions you know.Best of luck in the PRU 13 and prove me wrong !

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