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Sakmongkol ak 47

Friday 28 October 2011

Two views on BN's premature optimism

I find two comments that deserve to be read by a wider audience. Both are strong opinions on the article that I just wrote.  In my article I wrote about UMNO being the dominant partner in BN in the peninsula.  But as the first commentator wrote, this position doesn’t invite envy at all. UMNO could very find itself orphaned soon.
Assuming that if 18( out of 20) of the seats now held by MIC, MCA and Gerakan fall to non BN parties, the BN’s position does indeed rely on the BN partners in Sabah and Sarawak. Sarawak has 30 parliamentary seats while Sabah has 11. As the writer observed, the Sarawak strongman doesn’t seem to give two hoots what Najib and Muhyidin want. Indeed he was sworn in the very night BN Sarawak was announced the winner fearing that delays would invite intrigues and machinations from national leaders. So, before the federal leaders can do him in, he thumped their noses. The message is clear. He doesn’t trust our federal leaders.  Maybe it’s time for him to make deals with other leaders and then agree on a timetable where he can exit with dignity and not unceremoniously evicted as he nearly was after the recent Sarawak elections.
PBB and its partners in Sarawak are friends under the same banner with BN leaders in Peninsula. Can the Sarawak people trust their partner in Semanjung who seemed willing to abandon its own partner in Sarawak just to retain power? With that kind of partner, they don’t need enemies.
Indeed Taib Mahumud who must have felt humiliated by the treatment he got from federal leaders during Sarawak elections recently, now holds the trump card. He is said to have control over 23 of the 30 MPs. He must have felt immensely chagrined as Najib repeatedly told audiences that Taib Mahmud will retire. Taib Mahmud did not say anything about retiring. He said he will retire by a schedule of his own choosing. He is not an UMNO member and therefore doesn’t have someone to watch over him. His party delivered 100 per cent results while UMNO in the Peninsula couldn’t hold a candle to his track record. In short UMNO has no influence at all over Taib Mahmud. He can do very well as he damn pleases.
I have not said anything about Sabah and Sarawak. If the lifeline needed isn’t extended to UMNO and BN in Semanjung, UMNO and BN will find themselves on the opposition benches. That would usher in the much needed cleansing process and the weak in constitution will be weeded out. It’s a common anecdotal observation that should there be a hung government or BN and UMNO loses in the GE, its MPs can be induced and encouraged to cross over while just having teh tarik. Its that simple.

“Actually it’s all about UMNO. UMNO in the end carries BN.”
That was probably true a couple of elections ago. No more. UMNO has just 79 seats in Parliament out of 222. Of the total of 140 BN seats those now held by the other component BN parties held by MCA, Gerakan and MIC – total of 20 - are under serious threat of going to the opposition. So a lot will hang on the 30 seats held Sarawak BN parties, and the 11 held by Sabah BN parties.
So having just 35.6% of all seats, UMNO cannot possibly be the be-all-and end –all of BN. Actually, with the weakness of MCA, Gerakan and MIC, UMNO desperately needs PBB and its allies in Sarawak. That is why, after the recent Sarawak elections Taib Mahmud, without so much as whispering a word to Najib, quietly slipped out to the Istana in the deep of night to be sworn in as CM. He simply showed Najib and the DPM the finger. What can they do to him? Taib knows that the BN government and Najib’s future depends on him.
Ask Sabahans and Sarawakians how much they really care about (West) Malaysian politics, and you get a blank stare. The local politics there overwhelm everything emanating from KL or Putrajaya. Semananjung, Sabah and Sarawak are really 3 separate worlds. So there are the Semananjung UMNO warlords, and there are Sabah and Sarawak warlords. Each has clawed his way to the top through money politics involving cronyism and corruption – through privatization deals and government contracts in the Peninsular, and through timber and land deals in Sabah and Sarawak. If the top leaders are “elected” this way, expect the rest of the party leadership at lower levels to be the same.
UMNO was never like this before Mahathir came to power. The old UMNO had ideals. But after1987 under the stewardship of Mahathir UMNO evolved into a party in which devious, greedy and corrupt leaders have become rich at the expense of the ordinary Malays. This poor quality leadership is reflected in the numerous instances of mismanagement of this country’s wealth as reported by the Auditor General. Nothing is ever done because each trail would lead to an UMNO leader or crony.
Have we not seen or heard enough to say Malaysia deserves a change from this corrupt and inept BN government?
The other comment was submitted by a writer wishing to be known as el especial . this one is reflective.
“During that time, leaders with the required temperament and idealism emerged naturally to lead. Once that phase has run its course and the first generation leaders either passed on or were themselves consumed by the corruption of power, natural leaders cannot be found. We have to either replicate the natural milieu (which we can’t) or consciously plan a process. We have to do the second option.”
Indeed we cannot replicate the natural milieu. As true as it is, rest assured that nature has a rather insidious way of running its course. While we are asleep, the water in the river runs.
Take the state that we are in today. You certainly can’t argue that things are ideal or perfect or how you would want them to be. We are moving far from it towards a chaotic state characterized by rampant destruction, etc etc. Yet this is the natural order. An order that will bring so much destruction so as to rid and cleanse the system anew. Only then can there be an equilibrium of sorts.
One may try to move the system towards this state yet it is an uphill task. The current state of order is so saturated and diluted in a mess of its own making that to untangle, it simply need artificial shocks to the system. And it has to be wide spread to afflict all. The 2008 tsunami is but a small step, of ripples in the sea. Regionally and worldwide more are coming. If its to me, I would put it that artificial shocks are nothing compared to the nature’s order of chaos and destruction as a path to salvation, symmetry, and statis. Some call it composure. Now I’m being long winded.
 “Good leadership is seen as a game of chance- we choose using random methods in the hope, that by some fortuitous process, good leadership emerges. In other words we are leaving it to chance. Because of that, we often have duds emerging as leaders.”
The current milieu does not allow a leader to be true to him/herself and up hold the ideals he/she holds dear lest be seen and ostracized as an outcast trying to instigate foreign elements into the system. Forward steps the duds. A step back for the reluctant leader. They fiddle while the city burns. And burn the city will until the sky is engulf with nothing but darkness. So we wait.
The night is dark before a new dawn.
The methods employed to make the current assessments indicate qualities that make up a person’s disposition but not a reflection of good leadership. We have to be clear right from the start- we are looking for good leadership not a good person in the sense of possessing a likeable personality. A good person earns credit for himself and the benefits of being a personable fellow accrue to him alone. But if he is not a good leadership material, his defects affects whole societies.”
Agreed. And behind these leaders, there are those who prefer to be the invisible hand. Unnoticed yet potent.


bruno,  28 October 2011 at 12:01  

Dato,it is very clear that Taib doesn't give two hoots about Najib and Muhyiddin.They were already writing his obituary days before polling even begins.Taib is more seasoned a politician than these two leaders combined.He has seen how Sabah CMs fall like ninepins.

Don't tell us that an old crook like Taib does not know that politics have no permanent friends or enemies.This old dog might just teach Najib and Muhyiddin a trick or two.And money is no problem to Taib.He also has containers in ringgit and other foreign currencies.In fact Taib is much richer personally then Najib and Muhyiddin combined together.

If Taib tilt over to PR,BN will be sitting on the oppositite bench.By now PR should have made substansive inroads in Sabah,if Anwar and Azmin didn't screw up.Maybe Taib can be PR's saviour to Putrajaya this coming GE.

Anonymous,  28 October 2011 at 15:58  

And why may I ask, your goodself and Tunku Razaleigh still in UMNO.

You have literally made UMNO into a parish party. Why are you still in it?

Anonymous,  28 October 2011 at 16:06  

bruno=mongkol=aspan=what is else is new from xUMNO frustrated politicians!! give them some bananas they'll be quiet!!

Anonymous,  28 October 2011 at 16:28  

Taib will be the snake charmer of Malaysian politic...if he turn left Najib will fall,Anwar will sit in putra jaya and vis versa.
com on taib, let the show begin. GE 13 has no impact on lets tango or poco-poco...

Quiet Despair,  28 October 2011 at 16:45  

UMNO does not need OSK to tell them that it will win big this time around.
It knows it will win BIG. It is confident of getting a resounding victory.
It is not premature optimisim.
It is grounded on reality with the PKR making faux pas one after another led by big mouths and braggarts like LGE and Marx Sabo.
That walking dead Anu-war is not even a factor or force to be reckoned with.
PAS hudud laws, will costs the party to lose some seats. Now they are against Elton John's concert simply because he is gay.
Hahaha, why are you supporting a gay man to be PM?
Yes no doubt it is the toughest election yet.
I would like to quote Joe Biden who said: "Yes it is the toughest, but Obama and Democrats will win."
Same goes for us. I really laugh when people say UMNO berkubur kali ni, UMNO jadi anak yatim, UMNO jadi pembangkang.
Nothing but a dream which you all want to come true.
I am sceptical of MCA and MIC gaining back their seats. But with some latest developments, some of them may win with the government prioritizing more to the Chinese than the Malays.
Indians of course will support the BN. I wish Palanivel will lose whatever seat he contests. But I think he can win in Cameron Highlands since Pahang always return the BN.
Fauziah of Kuantan will lose her seat because Lynas has proven her false allegations against the company.
And reading and watching the bloopers in Kedah and Selangor, am quite sure BN will recapture the two states.
Sarawak and Sabah will again deliver the handsomest votes.
Taib Mahmud holds together all the tribal factions despite PKR's ass-lickers old farts Zorro and Din predicting BN will be trounced.
I find it laughable the suggestion that Taib can sit down with the opposition and bring down the BN.
Say what. Didn't the opposition accused him of corruption and keep pressing him he should resign.
Why on earth must he give in when he is popular with his people.
It's Anu-war whom Sarawakians don't care and don't bother.
Another laughable suggestion is BN MPs can change course over a cuppa.
Aw come on, only opposition and independent people cross-over or leap-frog to BN.
In case you forget, look at Perak.
So can expect the opposition to do the same this time.

Anonymous,  28 October 2011 at 17:09  


-talking about taib and his party, in the last state election a shit loads of whatever side of bloggers, didnt know whether u were included, predicted that taib would fall on his face. but to the crappy bloggers disappointment his party swept all the seats.

-some retards just dont understand politics. najib, muhyiddin and taib are sleeping together in one monster size bed f**king everybody in bolehland. the bond between them is so damn strong, even a tsunami could not break them apart. they surely can divorce their wives but definitely not their men wives political partners.

-the fact is ameno is getting stronger. mca, gerakan, ppp and other crap parties as good as dead and to avoid further disgrace are better to close shop. pkr is going down and now riding pas for some oxygen. pas is actually in the best health ever and certainly able to kick anybody. dap has the last laugh as it has near total chinese support.

Anonymous,  28 October 2011 at 19:39  

Pak Lah only wants to hear the good news. Therefore he was given that. As a result UMNO suffers. Today, more bad news about UMNO the better. It makes UMNO stronger and more resilient. Just look at Taib. All bad news about him for years. But what happened? He became stronger after the election.

Lets PR and its supporters continue believing that UMNO is about to self destruct.

Anonymous,  29 October 2011 at 10:10  

Quiet Despair!
Better stop kidding yourself ! Its the other way around!
Go open your ears in the street and ask about umno or Bn ...Your reply will be Putiii!!! Yes ! its the honest damm truth?
Dont have that shiok sendiri syndrom !The days of suckers and idiots are long gone!They want "CHANGE" man!Anything but UMNO WILL BE THE BATTLE CRY.....
You see the living dead will be sitting on his throne in putrajaya!!!!!

Pak Belalang,  29 October 2011 at 10:51  

Its forseable that Taib might not want to be dragged down by UMNO/BN. He has too many things in the pipeline to sustain PBB. But neither might the party pair off with PR as UMNO would have enough shit to stench him and which PR with a blocked nose would have to smell.

The weak links in PBB without the better seats in the gravy train will switch. Even those with good seats might act as frogs and there'll be chaos in PR.

Still, PBB could hobble on as Independents out of BN, supporting PR on crucial major issues of boring government work. There is some kind of dynamics in this picture. The PR government will be at the mercy of Taib.

Will PR ever accomodate such a situation or does it have a joker up it's sleeve?

Then again, UMNO/BN with the scandal of having Brit spin consultants connected or related to Blair and Campbell who sexed up Ibrahim al-Marashi's Phd work could see a very stinking battle in the election, so much chaos the stinking tide could be bigger than the Siam floods now. Parliament has acknowledged the payments to these spin scums.

It really is up to positively unassailable elements in UMNO, wherever they are or if any to ponder how to ride into the sunset with limping horses but to return another day.

- Brits spinning Malaysians
- The sexy dodgy dossier

Anonymous,  29 October 2011 at 13:45  

How do you defeat a giant like Taib? Inspite of all the corruption and orang asli land grabs, yet the people vote for him.

Anonymous,  29 October 2011 at 18:07  

any keen analyst or observer of malaysian politics will tell you that umno will rule by default becos the corrupt system is so entrenched, a level playing field is practically untenable...our only consolation is to see those irrelevent parties (mca, gerakan, mic) get annihilated...that will make my day and it will send a profound message that there is no dignity in winning by default

Anonymous,  30 October 2011 at 11:32  

Anonymous, 29 October 2011 18:07,

Don't be silly lah!

Voting patterns of Malays have Changed drastically and for the better. Otherwise all the Malays will jump off the cliff like lemmings. Depending on UMNO there'll be "civil war" if UMNO maintains its dumb beliefs. Why? You ask Tony Pelir and Azlan Shah lah! Of course the reformist non-Malays will vote opposition.

They're reliving the Pangkor Treaty Age. You'd like that don't you? You like the kera putih Britz to confer Sultanhood to Malay Sultans as in the case of Johor where the Brit Colonialist gomen first disproved then approved Sultanhood to the Johor bunch.

Read your history lah. Or you want to ask that Professor kengkang?

The Kera Brits keeps secret accounts for African Tryants to buy jazzy Paris properties. Well, are Malays so special that we are in this shithouse mess buying sugar at RM170 per kilo? and that's MARA!!!


Lim Yung Keng,  1 November 2011 at 12:46  

el especial's reply is a good one.

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