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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Monday, 27 October 2008

Mukhriz, Khairy or KT- its your choice

Sakmongkol hopes many people are aware of the Bradley effect. The blogger Akramsyah Sanusi, has written on this matter. He uses this phenomenon to caution Mukhriz Mahathir against being overconfident in the current contest of Ketua Pemuda UMNO.

The Bradley effect is also known as the Wilder effect. The Bradley effect is used to explain the discrepancy between what opinion polls say and the actual outcome in an election.

Suppose a white candidate contests against a black candidate. Opinion polls say, the black candidate is favoured. But come election time, the voters actually choose the white candidate over the black.

This was what actually took place in the gubernatorial race between a black and a white candidate.

In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white. Tom Bradley is a Black American.

Most polls in the final days before the election showed Bradley with a significant lead. Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner. Indeed early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, despite winning a majority of the votes cast on election day, Bradley narrowly lost the overall race once absentee ballots were included

Americans are very sensitive when it comes to issues of racism. White Americans will try hard as possible to hide their KKK deep-seated prejudices. So when asked, they will say they are indifferent as to race or even don’t mind a black candidate. You know the Americans are generally pretentious people; they like to be held in high esteem by others. In private of course they will denigrate the poor black man and when voting day comes, they will vote for the white candidate, their comfort candidate.

Sakmongkol prefers to apply two other theories to caution Mukhriz Mahathir.

In England, a similar phenomenon as the Bradley effect is known as the Shy Tory effect. When openly interviewed, respondents will say they are very displeased about the conservative party( the Tories). When polls were conducted based on the responses of interviewees, the conservatives trailed behind the Labour party. When voting day comes, the conservatives actually surpassed the labour party.

The German political scientist, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann propounded a theory known in political science and mass communication as the spiral of silence. The theory asserts that a person is less likely to voice an opinion on a topic if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority.

In the present contest for the post of Ketua Pemuda, delegates may be shy of declaring their true intentions. The universal politically correct stance is to accept Mukhriz Mahathir. He was the underdog. Pleasant and respectful. He is the son of the great Tun Mahathir. He is seen as more acceptable by Dato Seri Najib. To not nominate him may place one in the minority group.

On the other hand, KJ is seen as brash and arrogant. He is the ogre with the mean money machine. The UMNO delegates may actually prefer him but withhold their true preference for fear of being labeled as money pinchers.

The other candidate, Khir Toyo is also seen in the same light as KJ. But perhaps with less intense revulsion. Khir too has deep pockets and in a world where everyone has a price, outward preference can be easily extinguished with the flame- torch of money.

So sakmongkol hopes the following will not happen:-

Bulan 11 berani berubah

Bulan 12 mula berubah

Bulan 1 tengah berubah

Bulan 2 hampir berubah

Bulan 3 sudah berubah.

13 comments:

Zawi 27 October 2008 at 17:32  

Sakmongkol,
To bluntly put it, money will dictate the outcome of the coming Pemuda UMNO election. With less than 2,000 delegates to buy over, it will be chickem feed for someone with a war chest almost the size of the equity of a small bank.
All one need to do is wait for the list of delegates to be finalised.
It is rich pickings for the delegates since all three candidates were made to qualify. This is the richest Pemuda UMNO election ever. Even the election for the VP's post will pale in comparison.

Anonymous,  27 October 2008 at 17:46  

I will count on KT to replace my junk cars bald tyres plus brand new sports rims. I will depend on KT to renew its road tax and insurance. i will ask both of them for 'petrol allowance + a bit for makan2', I‘ll take my legal and safe to drive car to pwtc to vote for M. so I am on nov 08 tak berani berubah,
dec 08 tak berani langsung berubah,
Jan 09 tak boleh berubah sikit pun, feb 09 sorry laa mcm mana pun tak boleh berubah,
mac 09 berani berubah tapi syyy diam-diam.

gondol

Anonymous,  27 October 2008 at 17:58  

gondol,

u betul2 tak berguna punya org. before i deal with u, i'll make sure you sign the SD that you shall not vote for anyone other than KJ. I'll sue you if KJ loses in Mac. I'll make sure he recovers his investment to the last penny. Ada Paham !!!!

General KJ

Jed Yoong 27 October 2008 at 18:37  

" outward preference can be easily extinguished with the flame- torch of money. "

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA A HA A HA HA HA HA
I dun know enough to project.
It depends on how feudal the grassroots really are. If not too feudal and just biz-oriented, then Khir will win.
If not, 'cos the vote is split btw Khir and KJ, then Mukhriz is the lucky winner.
This is a good post. ;)

Omong 27 October 2008 at 21:43  

this disease is fast achieving epidemic toxic levels

hopefully the janda baik declaration is the antidote

walla 27 October 2008 at 21:52  

More important than ANYone winning the Umno Youth presidency is changing the perception of Umno Youth.

Right now as it has been so all along for as long as one can remember, it has been zero for those halfbaked heroes.

Name a single thing they have done for this country. Except make a mess of what's left of goodwill.

By this i speak for at least eighty five percent of the whole population of Malaysia. That's walla's law (namely a super-refinement of the 80:20 rule; ;P)

The other fifteen percent i have no idea how their heads work.

If Umno is to change, start with those young ones. Lest it be missed - "Umno Youth MUST change".

mamasita 27 October 2008 at 23:15  

Hai Walla!Ni cakap2 pasal UMNO,have you done the mopping after dinner!Nanti Mrs Walla kejar you baru you tahu!haha..regards to the missus yea?

Zaharan Razak 28 October 2008 at 00:02  

While all heads are looking skywards to see who will parachute down first at an air show, this little fella behind's momma's skirt is looking in the opposite direction at the cameraman taking an arriving-late, rear view of the watchers. The pic of the peeping boy against a sea of behinds made the front pages the next day.

walla 28 October 2008 at 08:32  

ah mamasita! hobby saya MPSM lah

(mopping pagi sampai malam ;P)

Ismail N 28 October 2008 at 10:15  

Dear Bro Sakmongkol AK47
Your article has just summed up one thing – Melayu UMNO TIDAK BERUBAH – “Hangat-hangat tahi ayam..” . I will be disappointed if Mukhriz does not win in March but the signs are not encouraging and I fear that your words “Bulan 3 Sudah Berubah” will come true. Another thing that I would like to add is – despite of strong support for Mukhriz, especially in the blogging world, I don’t think many of these supporters actually have any say on the outcome of the election, i.e – they are either not a member of UMNO or not an active member who has voting rights in the upcoming AGM. By the way, thanks for adding my RSS feeds to your blog. It is truly an honour for me. However, there is a problem with the link that you are using. Kindly revert to http://feeds.feedburner.com/net/maJy . Thank you very much.

SmallTalk 28 October 2008 at 12:09  

Brader Sak,
Whatever theory we use, the supreme commander of Pemuda UMNO is the Agong? Not the present Agong but the 1st Agong! The 1st Agong has been seen in all places and will continue to be present all the way till March 2009. The last round will be in the toilets of PWTC...mark my words brader!

Anonymous,  28 October 2008 at 17:15  

i rasa kebanyakan pemuda yg berebut jadi perwakilan ni berkongsi satu hajat yg serupa. nak rasa kemeriahan jadi pengundi di pwtc. diri rasa di hormati dan di kejar sana sini. di ajak berkumpul dan berborak sampai pagi. bila balik di hulur duit minyak. bila sampai hari mengundi hati jadi besar. ini peluang sekali seumur hidup. prinsip perjuangan tolak tepi. kepala ingat duit jer.. tambahan pula hati dan badan masih muda. duit lah jadi perantara...

man cotek

A Tabib 28 October 2008 at 22:17  

I'm not familiar with Umno voting practices but if the vote is secret, what's to stop the delegates from taking the cash and then voting according to their real preference? I don't think they'll lose a minute's sleep about double-crossing the giver.

In one fell swoop they can:
a. convert the rasuah into hadiah.
b. get the candidate they really want.

The only difficulties I can foresee are:
a. they may have a hard time wiping the grin off their faces when explaining to the losers that it was the "others who double- crossed you YB"
b. they may face a real danger of not receiving even a paltry gift of a kain pelekat at the next general assembly.

(scrambling into foxhole)

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