Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Pengurusan eCONomy yang membebal dan membebankan.



Pengalaman saya dengan orang UMNO yang berkuasa ini ialah mereka rasa mereka melakukan perkara2 yang menyebelahi kepentingan rakyat. Tapi sebenarnya sebaliknya yang berlaku.

Kepentingan yang mereka perjuangkan ialah kepentingan kelompok2 tertentu dan ianya adalah untuk kepentingan mereka sendiri untuk berfikiran demikian. Dengan berfikiran demikian sahaja, dapatlah mereka mensahihkan perlakuan mereka. Hitam jadi putih, salah jadi betul, tidak adil jadi adil.

Inilah punca minda kerajaan tahu yang terbaik untuk kamu. Walaupun PM Najib jerit sana sini mengistiharkan zaman kerajaan lebih tahu yang terbaik untuk kamu sudah berakhir, sebetulnya sebaliknya yang berlaku.  Kita tahu Najib kaki kelentong.

Kerajaan bernafsu buas untuk mengekang kepentingan rakyat.  Semua protes yang legitimate dianggap sebagai hasutan menjatuhkan kerajaan. UMNO tidak sedar bahawa kerajaan yang meraka ada hanya disokong oleh 47% pengundi dalam PRU13. Dikawasan saya, yang dapat 47%, calun MCA tewas.

PTPTN di gambarkan sebagai suatu yang baik. Orang kampong yang berpendapatan rendah menerima gambaran tersebut. Mereka sokong dan ada yang sanggup berdemonstrasi menyokong PTPTN. Banyak sangat kah wang orang Melayu?  Mengapa kita biarkan diri kita diperbodohkan? Tidak kesian kita pada anak2 kita?

 40% golongan bawahan mempunyai pendapatan isi rumah purata sebanyak RM1600. Itu angka purata. Menerima kesahihan angka ini samalah seperti kita menerima jumlah saiz purata sebuah keluarga ialah 3.5 orang. Pernah sesiapa melihat 0.5 orang?

Yang mempunyai pendapatan tidak lebih RM1000 sebulan berjuta jumlah mereka. Sebab itu ada 7 juta rakyat Malaysia layak mendapat BR1M. jumlah yang layak saya rasa sepatutnya 11 juta orang.

 Tapi mereka tidak fikir bahawa anak2 mereka, ramai yang jadi graduan tapi tidak mendapat kerja yang diimpikan, akan berhutang dan mungkin akan bengkrap. Kitaran membengkrapkan akan berulang. Yang tak dapat kerja memerlukan proses memahirkan diri lagi, masuk pusat latihan, kena bayar lagi, kena ambil PTPTN. Hutang bertambah.

Kita membiarkan kebaradaan jenerasi yang berhutang dan kita lupa bahawa ini angkara durjana sebuah kerajaan yang korap dan rasuah dan menyalah guna kuasa.

Kerajaan mengeksploitasi mimpi ibu bapa dan impian anak muda. Wahai anak muda- dalam PRU14 nanti ada 7 juta jumlah kamu- tendang keluar kerajaan bangsawan yang ada sekarang, kembalikan kuasa rakyat. Sokong kemunculan kerajaan yang baru.

Dahulu apabila saman AES dikenalkan, ada kelompok Melayu yang sanggup berdemonstrasi mempertahankan pengenaan saman AES sedangkan orang Melayu yang memiiki kereta bukan semua kaya. Kereta adalah suatu keperluan sekarang. Tapi mereka mempertahankan kenaan saman tersebut yang mengayakan syarikat yang membuat cadangan. hari ini kita tahu, kamera tak seberapa yang dipasang tapi kerajaan bayar RM700 juta dan kena bayar ganti pula kerena memberhentikan projek curi wang rakyat tersebut.

Kegilaan tambah berleluasa. Tidak salah mencadangkan memilhara ikan sturgeon dalam hutan Jerantut walaupun ianya akan menyebabkan balak RM60-70 juta akan disapu habis. Bagaimana pemegang kuasa dalam negeri saya Pahang boleh menjustifikasikan projek ini yang dari segi common sense, akan gagal dari mula lagi. Hutan dan bukit akan gondol.

Sabsidi minyak dibayar oleh kerajaan bukanlah suatu perkara yang menakjubkan. Tapi tiap kali dalam parlimen, sahabat saya Ahmad Maslan, AP Pontian akan ungkit2 perkara ini.

Ini bukti kerajaan perihatin dan pro rakyat. Banyak ni, kata nya.

Kerajaan pulang kepada kita RM40,000 juta setahun. Ini jumlah yang besar. Jika pendapatan negara ialah sebanyal RM1.3 trillion jumlah sabsidi ialah 3% dari KDNK. Tapi banyak mana kita serahkan kepada kerajaan tahun demi tahun? 10 tahun kebelakang ini, kita serah kepada kerajaan 230,000 juta. Kita beri kerajaan hampir 6 kali ganda daripada apa yang kerajaan beri kepada kita dalam bentuk sabsidi. Jadi, apa yang hendak di ungkit? 40,000 juta sebahagian kecil dari 230,000 juta.

Dalam parlimen kita bukan datang untuk berceramah. Bajet ialah pembentangan keluar masuk wang. Semua perbelanjaan yang kerajaan cadang untuk 2015 datang dari rakyat. Kerajaan BN mesti bersyukur kerana rakyat membayar cukai yang menjadi hasil kerajaan. Yang patut bersyukur lebih ialah kerajaan bukan rakyat.

Sabsidi minyak naik dari RM1.65 billion dalam tahun 2002 kepada RM23 billion tahun 2013. Kenapa? Tidak ada misteri dan tidak perlu disorakkan. Jawapan nya sudah diberi- jumlah kereta bertambah. Orang pun bertambah. Jadi penggunaan petrol, disel dan gas pun bertambah. Apa yang ek sangat hendak dislogankan bayaran sabsidi petrol dan gas?

Ramai yang mengguna kreta dan kenderaaan. Kerana itu, maka penggunaan petrol, disel pun bertambah. Orang yang menggunakan gas pun bertambah. Jadi sabsidi bertambah.

Jika kenderaan awam baik dan mantap mungkin penggunaan kenderaaan peribadi berkurang. Jika petrol naik, dan kerajaan meliberalkan import kreta, kereta yang efisen minyak akan ditambah.  Jika harga kreta murah, kenaikan petrol tidak dirasa teruk sangat.

Penyokong UMNO gembira bila dengar Ahmad Maslan mengulangi kenyataan bahawa kerajaan ini baik hati- setiap tahun belanja RM40 billion untuk sabsidi. Macam2 ada. Sabsidi minyak, dan LPG sahaja RM21billion. mana nak cari kerajaan sebaik hati? Sampai naik loya tekak kita mendengar ulang tayang cerita lama ini.

Semua orang kena bersyukur sebab mana ada kerajaan yang belanja sebanyak itu untuk rakyat. Rakyat atau kerajaan yang patut bersyukur?

Yelah- orang UMNO yang kurang cerdik semua angguk ya seolah2 wang tersebut UMNO yang punya. Atau kerajaan yang dikuasai UMNO yang punya. Fakta nya ialah,, kerajaan tidak ada wang. Wang yang ia ada semua datang dari hasil cukai dan hasil bukan cukai yang di kutip dari rakyat semua. Yang mereka belanja itu, dalam bahasa yang mudah, bukan bapak mereka yang punya.

Tujuan sabsidi ialah mengurangkan harga sesuatu barang supaya meringankan beban rakyat. kerajaan belanja RM20-21 billion setiap tahun keatas sabsidi RON95, disel dan LPG. Juga untuk mengurangkan harga meringankan beban rakyat yang sussah.

Soalaan: adakah membantu rakyat susah menjadi susah kepada kerajaan? Kalau rasa susah sangat, undur biar Pakatan Rakyat ambil alih dan tunjukkan bagaimana kita boleh urus ekonomi negara dengan lebih baik.

Setiap tahun kita rakyat menyerahkan RM230-240 billion kepada kerajaan apa macam? Bagaimana duit kita kerajaan belanjakan? Jika dari 230 blllion itu dikembalikan kepada rakyat dalam bentuk sabsidi sebanyak RM40 billion , apa yang hendak dibising dan diungiktkan. Betul jumlah sabsidi itu banyak tapi kenapa ianya jadi demikian?

Itulah sebabnya saya katakan dalam sebuah artikel- keberadaan sabsidi ini menyembunyikan kegagalan kerajaan BN untuk memikirkan dan melaksanakan dasar2 ekonomi yang mengurangkan sabsidi  tersebut. Jika terlalu banyak sabsidi bererti kerajaan gagal memikirkan dan menjalankan dasar2 yang membaiki keadaan ekonomi. Jika pengurusan ekonomi baik, sabsidi boleh dikurangkan.

Sabsidi tidak sama dengan pemberian wang kepada mereka yang tidak berdaya, tua, sakit dan yang memerlukan bantuan kebajikan masyarakat. Ini pemberian yang mana2 kerajaan yang perihatin sediakan untuk sebahagan mereka yang benar2 tidak terdaya.

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Saturday, 18 October 2014

The People eCONomy- where has the RM13.8 billion gone to?



With some ammendments.

Where is the RM13.8 billion previously collected by SST gone to? It hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s in the system. The government officers better buck up. What was previously collected under SST is now collected under GST. We haven't lost anything that was collected under SST previously. 
The point here is this: the government thinks by doing this kind of maths, people will think the GST as being less severe- look here people, after we implement GST, we only make a nett gain of RM600 over million. That's a pittance. So don't fault GST. Its not a money making machine for the government. 
That is precisely my point. Its a better money making machine. That is the reason we will implement GST next May. Because its a more effective tax collecting mechanism. 
The RM13.8billion is not an spending item- it’s a revenue item. We don’t now take money to pay the RM13.8 billion out. We collect it under GST.  Think revenue, think GST. 


Who does the reasoning behind the maths for FM Najib? 


This isn’t a case of denigrating the hard working government officers who toiled day and night for several weeks so that the FM can have his so many minutes of fame.  This is case of misleading argument.

A few days ago, questions were raised about basic maths. Some points were raised about the mathematics of GST. The estimated proceeds from GST is RM23.2 billion. This is easily understood. But the government says, we have to deduct RM3.8 billion because, some goods taxable under GST are exempted. That too can be understood. The net value of the proceeds under GST will be RM19.4 billion.


From now, the argument gets murkier. The amount that was to be collected under SST would have been RM13.8 billion. We lost this amount say the government planners and says the clueless FM.

No, we don’t lose any money. We do not take RM13.8 billion from our revenue and pay it to somewhere else. The money is there.

The government says we have to deduct this- minus 13.8 billion; we are left with RM5.6 billion.  Then we used the GST proceeds to pay off BR1M totaling RM4.9 billion.  So we have the net gain from GST of RM690 million.

The government must take us for fools. Whoever did the reasoning behind the maths should be sacked immediately confirming my personal view that those who entered government service are intellectual gnomes. We don’t lose the 13.8 billion anywhere. It’s still there.

Let us warn the government, don’t steal this RM13.8 billion.

Hello- the tax revenue not collected by SST is now collected by GST. We don’t lose anything. We still collect that RM13.8 billion not collected by SST but now collected by GST. We still have RM13.8 billion.

We still have the RM19.4 billion after deducting the GST-free items. From here we pay the BR1M of almost RM5 billion, we have RM14 over billion.

So again is not a case of denigrating civil servants when we point out this fallacy. The RM13.8 billion is still in the system. The government is not taking RM13.8 billion and paying out somewhere.

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Wednesday, 15 October 2014

Najib's people eCONomy Budget.


Najib’s people  eCONomy Budget.


Ok, we now know PM Najib wants a capital economy. This is not surprising. He is the chief spokesman for capital. What this simply means, is his government will carry out policies that support capital formation and accumulation by favoured parties, so that the combined income of these favoured parties when divided will elevate the per capita GDP.

Ananda Krishnan or Robert Kuok enters a room of 100 people- each one is a millionaire on paper because Ananda’s or Uncle Bobby’s income is divided among 101 people.

You see, the economic planners of our country have not weaned themselves away from being tied to the trickle down mentality; believing that if the few and selected are enriched, their generosity will trickle down in the form of more private investments, more job creation, more sharing of their prosperity.
These hopes have not materialised.

That has not been the outcome of trickle-down economics. The rich and select continue to amass wealth, creating disparities in income distribution, private investments as a result of favoured treatment have not materialised, and job creation as a result of the same favoured treatment on the rich has not happened. Social objectives expected by the government  to take place, if the rich and select were to be treated special, have also not happened.

The Malay supremacists have been complaining since I ever knew how to read, that almost all the shop houses, business premises, commercial complexes and malls in towns and cites are owned by non-Malays. Now, why have not the select group of super-rich Malays created as a result of government unnatural selection, done their part to make Malay representation in town and cites felt? Why haven’t these people built shops and malls, commercial centres and business premises?  Where is their nationalistic commitment?

None- they have become rich, damn the left behind. This is exactly the bourgeois thinking of our economic planners.and Najib is a bourgeois and an aristocrat disconnected from the ordinary folks. I want to say it as a matter of fact- what does Najib know about the sufferings and lost hopes of the rakyat? 


Since 1970s for example, the government has managed to create a coterie of super rich Malay people. Have these people invested in plants and machinery and even business premises in our cities? How many of these super rich Malays owned business premises in cities, shop houses and malls in towns and cities to showcase us that have played their part to show the presence of Bumiputera economic might? Very little is the answer.

The government will put up policies that support private investments- reduce taxes for the top or avoid implementing taxes that may reduce incentives to work harder on the part of the favoured few, make it easy for favoured companies to list their companies and get public money) bonds, sukuk or whatever financial instruments which are basically public IOUs) ensure corporate profits are maximised by way of favourable tax regimes and protection from pesky dissidents, falsifying accounts to get good sovereign and credit ratings. Hotels in Langkawi charge guest rates converted from US rates but pay workers in Malaysian Ringgit which is in the dumps.

The bastion of the capital economy is of course the Bursa Saham- the temple for professional gamblers where people speculate and made killings. That’s Najib’s capital economy for you. Even Friedman can’t coin up that term.  

But we know it as the economy of the top 20%, by the top 20% and for the top 20%.
Najib is saying- rich boys and girls- I shall take care of you. 
 

For the rest, it is people’s eCONomy. 

Najib’s pride and joy is the NTP- National Transformation Plan which he thought would distinguish him from Pak lah. Today he is regarded as worse than Pak Lah. In GE14 I said, he failed miserably. The opposition got more seats. The people of Selangor should kick him out because he failed to secure Selangor. He was the UMNO Liaison chief. His biggest liability is the irascible MP from Tanjung Karang. We pray Najib keeps him around. Only the Man who can walk on water dares to say Najib has failed. And Sakmongkol who has been saying that all this while.

The NTP has 9 components- all of which are acronym-ed. The people from the Kampong know nothing of these and that the existence of these proved that Najib lied right from the start. For under him, the era of the Government knows better is entrenched. Najib has no time for the Kampong people who are mere digits easily silenced by bread crumbs known as BR1M. Those are all taxpayer’s money not Najib’s money.

The 2015 budget is the same old wine in a new bottle. It repeats the same things over and over again different only in forms. The BN budget has said the same things like:

a)   Creating economic growth with income distribution;

b)   Control budget deficits  

c)   Develop knowledge and a high technology economy;

d)   acknowledge the importance of  the services industries,

e)   Strategize and pick “winners”;

f)    Enhance human capital development;

g)   Empower women ;( Najib loves his woman/women)

h)   Build infrastructure like roads, rails, bridges, and telecommunications, water and electricity supplies;

i)     Restructure society and help Malays and other Bumiputera;

j)     Go green to preserve and protect the environment;

k)   Buys more military assets with commissions of course, to provide security and safety for the people;

l)     And now, this new one- develop Malaysia as a sporting nation.

The economic planners thinks they can beat the market by creating niche enterprises believing them to be “winners” – lychee and longan cultivation, herbal medicine- we have so many herbal valleys and designated areas, we have a multi-million Ringgit herbal processing plant in Lengong Perak which made a particular person rich by a commission o RM15 million, we have entertainment and movie-making enterprises,  halal food and industry hubs, wafer manufacturing, tuna fishing and cattle breeding (NFC) – and now, hear this a sturgeon fish rearing program deep in the jungles of Jerantut Pahang. Just the other day, I asked my MP colleague from Jerantut, to bring us some smoked sturgeon or the Jerantut caviar.

The cheaper Ringgit has not helped our workers. They are paid in the cheaper Ringgit while their employers earn income equivalent to US Dollars. Hotels in Langkawi charge their patrons in rates similar to hotels in Phuket- in US Dollar equivalent. They pay their workers in Ringgit. Why hasn’t the ordinary worker enjoyed the effects of the devalued Ringgit which ought to spur exports, sales of Malaysian goods and services?  The bounties from a devalued Ringgit are enjoyed by the select few who continue to prosper on the back of the suffering of ordinary folks.

This is how Najib’s people eCONomy works.

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Tuesday, 14 October 2014

Najib's 'The People Economy' 2015 Budget.



The 2015 budget?

This chap likes nothing better than to read blindly and behaving the part on certain sections he gets excited with. Then arms will flail, voice becomes pitched all of which are dysfunctional and out of sync. 
But he is the FM and PM and the UMNO mental gnomes will aye at every possible moments.

Well, many people are of the opinion, that our FM is clueless. This time he simply reads from the teleprompter. Point 7 for instance- from agriculture economy to high income phase to service based economy. The high income phase is what? There’s no continuity in the thinking about the description of the economy- the beginning and the end are correct- the middle is muddled. Agriculture economy is a type of economy- service based is a type- high income phase? What is this? What type? Who the hell wrote this for the FM?

As usual, Najib masks the budget- which ought to be a factual presentation of our revenue and the application of the revenue- with the usual histrionics. 
Just say how much you collected and how does your government wish to apply the consolidated fund?

Our duty- the duty of opposition MPs is to see the funds are properly appointed and point out what can work and not work.

Remember this is a government which was voted in by 48% of the voters. He should be mindful of this as should all the arrogant ministers, government officers and so forth. You are a government voted in by the minority. Big enough but still the minority. You are government as a result of unfair representation density and gerrymandering.

The FM being the politician that he is, will never tire at making political points whenever he gets an opportunity like relating the story about his biggest difficulty in administering Malaysia. Which is to balance between policies that are populist in nature and policies based on economic and financial imperatives? 
What a la-di-da.

Will anyone believe what Najib said on point 18- consolidating fiscal deficit is a moral responsibility of our generation towards the future generation. Wow!
The morality of the BN government is the morality of the 20%, by the 20% and for the 20%.
Mention CGT- capital gains tax and the chief gnome of BN- Ahmad Maslan says, this will scare away investors. Yes of course- tax the people, they cannot run away.  Tax those who receive income by way of dividends, shares, tax those CEO who gets gargantuan salaries.They wont run away too.

Public debt is more than 55% of the GDP if we , indeed must include the contingent liabilities which are more than RM150 billion.  He speaks oblivious to the fact that public debt is high and household debt is among the highest in Asia. That’s because he allows the banks to go on a predatory lending binge.

Let us take him on on this.

Why has his polices on the Bumi agenda failed? Because he operated from the wrong and fundamentally flawed economic principle. Prosperity is a function of productivity not of rent seeking. Can the Bumi mandarins even fathom this concept?

All this while, since 1970 up till now, the solution to bumiputra economic advance has always been decidedly on rent seeking. Government officers got rich because they are rent seekers- they owned their positions temporarily but have sufficient time to make hay while it shines. Because allocations and budget pass through them, the allocations and budgets are interacted on. They provide opportunities for profession-rent seekers to put their hands in the kitty,

I am jumping the gun a bit- bumiputera economic agenda. Since 1970 this has been the preoccupation. Despite that, the bottom feeders earn RM1600 per month, while the 20% penthouse dwellers earn RM11, 000.

And how did the 20% get to the penthouses? By being a rent seeker basically.

Owning something. KSUs and TKSU own their posts temporarily from which they milk the cow. CEOs of GLS own their posts for a while and make hay while it shines. As long as money passes through intermediaries without stringent scrutiny, these people will whack our money.

That’s just the introduction folks.

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