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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Wednesday, 28 July 2010

FDI Malaysia: what to believe?




 

Outflow of investment in 2009 was 25 billion. Compared to inflow of 4.43 billion. We suffered a Nett outflow of FDI of 20 billion. In other words, RM 20 billion ran away from Malaysia. Now Nazir Razak said, the nett outflow could be the result of lumpy Malaysian investments abroad. He therefore sagely referred to the investments made by Maybank and his own CIMB.
We don't have the sophistication of artful reasoning of a suave banker, but a few questions need to be answered:

  1. Suppose these lumpy investments abroad, are re directed into Malaysia, would these investments come under the category of FDI and taken up in the National Accounts as such? Wouldn't it be that if Maybank and CIMB invested in this country, their investments cannot be counted as FDI simply because Maybank and Nazir's CIMB are not foreign entities?

  2. Even if we admit this spurious definition, are the investments by Maybank and CIMB sufficiently big to offset the outflow and give us, in the end, a Nett inflow of FDI?
The figures of FDI are currently disputed. If not true, that would cast a long pall over the credibility of whichever International Body that sanctions the release of the report by the World Investment Report of the UN.
On the other hand, Nazir Razak's readiness and spirited defence of the FDI, suggests that actually he too believed that there were net outflows of FDI in 2010. If that is so, it must be tackled.

15 comments:

WZWH 28 July 2010 at 23:47  

Salam Sakmongkol AK47,
Donth hurt your fellow contryman too much. To answer your question FDI Malaysia: what to believe? please read my answers read this http://wzwh.blogspot.com/2010/07/data-unctad-fdi-malaysia-merudum-salah.html and http://wzwh.blogspot.com/2010/07/fdi-malaysia-merudum-apa-reaksi-najib.html and also http://suaramajlis.blogspot.com/2010/07/aliran-masuk-fdi-menjunam-kerana.html They all written by Pahang bloggers.

sakmongkol AK47 29 July 2010 at 00:01  

wzmh.
please read carefully. the contention that the figures about our FDI being wrong may be correct. i am not arguing that. i am arguing the reasons given by Nazir Razak. if Maybank and CIMB re direct their investments into this country, that cannot be taken up in the national accounts as Foreign investments. this is different from arguing whether the figures on FDI are wrong or correct.
i am attacking the reasoning given to explain FDI as misleading by the banker.

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 00:16  

WZWH - maybe you should also read this article for balance http://masterwordsmith-unplugged.blogspot.com/2010/03/rakyat-first.html. I am all for the truth to surface but this Calvin guy is mostly anecdotal

hishamh 29 July 2010 at 01:44  

Dato',

You are correct - investments by Maybank and CIMB within Malaysia would not be considered FDI.

However, I don't believe that is what Nazir was referring to. In the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position reports, outbound investment is considered to be negative FDI (+assets, -cash), because from the point of view of the recipient, it would be considered inbound FDI (-liabilities, +cash). The accounts for inward and outward flows across the globe in aggregate must balance.

Therefore CIMB and Maybank's investments in Indonesia would be considered inward FDI to Indonesia, but outward FDI for Malaysia.

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 01:48  

Dato,

Najib is already in deep shit! His is a no action talk only. Our economy is going down the drain. The climate in the country is just gloomy. Najib is perched precariously at the top of the menara UMNO.

And precariously means can fall anytime.

So, his brother has to come to his rescue with some lame reason/excuse.

His brother is trying to put him in Putrajaya as long as possible so that they can continue to line their own pocket.

These 2 anak Razaks are munafiqs!

Idris

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 07:55  

Our leaders have the ken to give a twist to any issue to lessen any negative effect.
Remember the Corruption Perception Index? The drop in University ranking?
They will even give a reason as to why the sun rises in the west.
Do you ask why Utusan and the main media shy away from critical analysis of "negative perceptions"?

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 08:59  

THe country is self sufficient..do not need FDIs any more.In fact,we're so wealthy we have to invest globally.

Internally,we should be more focussed on on the real issues dictating our future i.e. sand,internet censorship,Akademi Fantasia and football jerseys.

And the bottomline is we have nothing to fear as we have very high tech management involving Labs.With the fantastic R&D coming out of the Jala's Labs our future is secured.

We should all respect the wisdom of our leaders.

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 09:18  

And the deputy minister is busy "kayak-ing"...I wonder what would kak Rafidah says about this? May be we should appoint brader Jho to be the minister...hemmmm!

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 10:38  

JAKARTA - FOREIGN investment in Indonesia soared 46 per cent in the first six months of the year, an official said on Wednesday, as confidence in the country continued to grow after the global financial crisis.

Foreigners committed 71 trillion rupiah (S$10.8 billion) in South-east Asia's biggest economy, investment board chief Gita Wirjawan said.

A total of 92.9 trillion rupiah had been invested in the country in the six months to July, including money from local investors, he added. 'The increase showed investors' confidence in Indonesia's investment climate and its macroeconomic stability,' Mr Wirjawan was quoted as saying by Dow Jones Newswires.

For the April-June period alone, actual investment rose 56 per cent from the previous corresponding period to 50.8 trillion rupiah.

Foreign direct investment during the three months increased 53 per cent on-year to 35.6 trillion rupiah, while investment by domestic companies grew 63 per cent.

Analysts said the data show government efforts to improve the domestic investment climate have been paying off.

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 10:48  

Doesn't matter how you measure FDI inwards or outwards, a common yardstick was used for all the countries. Final analysis Malaysia failed miserably to attract FDIs to our shores. Malaysia was simply not found to be sufficiently attractive to the foreign investors.
The answers to this lay at the doors of publications like Utusan Malaysia, politicians like Ibrahim Ali, corrupt Malaysian leaders, corrupt and arrogant civil service, and all such kind, who continue through their words and deeds to perpetuate the widespread belief that Malaysia has nothing to offer but grief.

regards
PowerOn

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 13:14  

Dont worry about the FDI, bcoz that's outsiders' money. They can do practically what they want.

Just worry about the DDI, where most of the money is distributed among Chinapeks, Kelings & umnoputras.

There r sign that the Chinapeks r moving their funds out. Just follows the recent business tracks of the richest man in M'sia - SEE the sign?

The Keling is start to move too. The 2nd richest man in M'sia is moving his business privatization plans into full gear. He has no choice, bcoz before he moves his portion of the money out he needs to settle the dole due to the 'investors'. And we all know who these 'investors' r, aint we?

What do these business transactions prove?

Malaysia Maru is sinking fast due to years of poor maintenance (2nd best managers) , leakages (rent-seeking & corruptions) & parts cannibalization (fanning the racial harmony).

To these business savvy people the only way for this ship is DOWN! And there r better returns somewhere else, with more business friendly authorities.

Oh.. what happen to the money of the umnoputras. Need to ask? They have long been stacked away in foreign lands - simply bcoz these money CANNOT be known to the Malay heartlanders. They will cause more than heart-attacks to both the stalk-holders & the dumbbos.

To the eyes of the foregners, if u dont help yrself, then WHY should they help u? After all said & done, there r many investment choice picks among this region.

Moreover, the moving out of the local funds DO a lot of telling about the current govt business policies, izznt it?

So still need to argue about the quantum of FDI going to come from?

Pariah!!!!

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 14:38  

Dato',

No worries. Malaysia's latest arabic speaking whizz kid Mr. Jho Low has powerful connections with the Arab world. He will come to Malaysia's rescue with billions of Arab petrol dollars/dinars FDI to save Malaysia from joining the ranks of Zimbabwe and Myanmar.

As a Malaysian, I feel very secure to know our country has brilliant minds at work to achieve the PM's promise of a high income nation very soon. As Art Harun mentioned in his article, it is just pure conspiracy on the part of jewish influenced establishments to put down Malaysia when we have so many 1st world infrastructure in place or soon to be in place, even though majority of them are or will turn out to be white elephants.

1Malaysia boleh!!!!

Anonymous,  29 July 2010 at 16:52  

Diverging somewhat from the FDIs.
It seems what Jho Low did in the interview with the Star was DAMAGE CONTROL. Hope everyone got the point, probably his father (titled and also extremely wealthy and well connected honorary citizen of Austin US, and Dallas, commissioned Admiral of the Texas Navy??? is all of this true!!) got him back to Malaysia, suited him soberly and got him to say this and that, bedazzle with words, names, and if one can read between the lines of what was said, what was avoided, and what was unsaid, you may assume that he was probably the legman/bagman for the shadowy figures from Middle East and Malaysian bigwigs. Perhaps the notoriety got to his head, pictures of him with Paris H, too much publicity which almost all investors/financial backers shun. Make your own conclusions, the interview did not clarify, rather invited more and more questions. Could just one or two interviews satisfy the lust to know more?

Anonymous,  30 July 2010 at 19:29  

Bank Negara should be able to throw some light on these figures by releasing the statistics for unrequited transfers. I am afraid that outward investment may be a cover for capital flight. Or may be an economist could help throw some light. Man-on-the-Street.

hishamh 31 July 2010 at 20:44  

@Man-on-the-Street,

No, it's definitely outward investment.

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