The madam Zorra of Malaysian politics has given a lengthy interview to reporters from Utusan Malaysia. One blogger has persuaded us to put our thinking caps on. I have and here are my views.
Perhaps if any one of them could have send an earlier message that he or she has a serious personal problem, maybe that person could have been invited to Seri Satria( the official residence of the DPM). So sorry that person missed that opportunity.
Our leaders seem to be seized by a serious bout of amnesia. Therefore let us refresh our memory.
The UMNO membership stands at 3.5 million members. During the last elections UMNO candidates secured 2.0 million votes. That would mean that 1.5 million UMNO members rejected candidates from their own party. So, there’s no guarantee that your own members will vote for you based on blind loyalty. UMNO members now vote according to their conscience and that is causing nightmares among the UMNO leadership.
We must also remember that the number of Malay voters during the 12th general elections were 5.7 million. If UMNO candidates could only muster 2.0 million Malay votes, that means 3.7 million Malays rejected UMNO candidates. Even this is an overestimate resting on the assumption that the 2.0 million votes received were all from Malay voters.
Now , we know non Malays also voted for UMNO candidates. Let us put a nominal figure of 200 thousand Malay voters. That would then mean, UMNO only obtained 1.8 million Malay votes.
The more pertinent question that should be addressed by our leaders is why do Malays reject UMNO? Why is UMNO forsaken by the Malays?
That could be accounted for by a number of reasons:-
· The Malays are fed up with the entire UMNO leadership
· The Malays are fed up with the top leadership including yellow bellied Dato Najib
· Malays no longer believed UMNO is fighting for Malay interests
· Malays believed UMNO leadership is using authority to protect their own interests.
Now, the question is, can we reasonably believe that these general ideas that have coloured the perception of Malays in general during the 12th GE can be re-channeled into new found support for UMNO in Permatang pauh?.
Therefore despite the mathematical juggling and calculation of probabilities, these cannot cancel out the general sentiment of the Malays in general as regards UMNO. That’s the way it is.
It is forced optimism to believe that the fractious UMNO division in Permatang Pauh will fight as a united unit. Despite the facetious show of solidarity of the ketua bahagian of Permatang Pauh holding hands with the DPM and other candidates, unity in UMNO nowadays is really a rare and precious commodity. And we know he is shamming everyone. We can’t rest our hopes on a fragile impression. UMNO divisional leaders are good at putting up a show.
Moralizing on the merits of resigning one’s position will not alter the fact that the people wants to punish UMNO for its arrogance, its malfeasance, its deviation from core Malay interests. There is no morality issue in resigning one’s position to offer it to what our opponents view as offering a better choice to the people.
Suppose Dato Najib had lost in the elections the last time. I am pretty sure someone will volunteer or gets paid to make way for Dato Najib. And that decision will not be considered as betraying voters trust but as a means to offer the voters a representative who is perceived to be better.
Permatang Pauh by-elections is viewed as crucial because it determines the future of UMNO itself and also the future of the more important leaders of UMNO such as Dato Najib himself. Suppose Anwar wins the elections. It will be a matter of time when he will devised whatever steps necessary to form the next government. Who will be losing the most? It’s the DPM. Therefore it’s no surprise to know that he regards the by-elections as a crucial watershed for UMNO and for himself personally.
I have already said that this by-elections will be Najib’s waterloo and UMNO’s Nuremberg. Anwar Ibrahim is on trial here. He will be stripped naked in all his glory and despite his manhood being measured or not, he can expect the worse from the BN propaganda machine. After all he is the ogre who threatens the every future of Dato Najib? It will not surprise anyone that the by-elections will be downright dirty.
Conversely, it would be foolhardy for Dato Najib to believe that this by-elections will be a gentleman’s game of backgammon. Tut..tut sir. It’s all fair in love and war. He can therefore expect the same striptease act on his own person. Just as UMNO is regarded as the ogre, Dato Najib is regarded as the cyclops.
The non Malays will likely support the PKR candidate. The previous party in Penang was the Gerakan and it was essentially a Chinese based party. Even as we speak, there already moves within Gerakan that are exploring the feasibility of disengaging itself from BN. Can we expect a hastily formed special Chinese squad to be able to deliver miracles where the Gerakan people who have been there for ages and being the government to boot, failed? In the immortal words of AR Tompel..Impour- ssible.!
Of course pitting a candidate who can speak Chinese is endearing but can never be a sufficient inducement to encourage the non Malays to vote for the UMNO candidate.