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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Saturday 12 January 2013

The Voice of One Million Marchers.

I don’t see the reason why UMNO people and the people at Bank Islam need to pull their hair and scratch their faces over the findings of Bank Islam’s chief economist. He has probably reached the conclusions he did after scouring the developments on the ground. Plus, he is stating the obvious.
On the 30th October last year, I wrote an article with the title Ini Kalilah. At that time I said, PR has already got 110 seats in the peninsula. Now, if my estimate that PR can win another 28 seats from East Malaysia, PR will be getting 138 seats leaving UMNO/BN with 84 seats. The 84 will come mainly from UMNO (including UMNO Sabah) and the 20 seats from Taib Mahmud’s 20 PBB seats.
Let’s picture another horrific scenario.  What if Taib Mahmud for some selfish reasons and for reasons of self-preservation decides to throw his lot with the new ship and abandon UMNO?
PR will get 20 more seats bringing its total to 158 seats. UMNO and whatever remains of the BN party will be having only 64 seats. That’s the worse scenario that UMNO finds itself in. that number will render UMNO into a semi-comatose condition.
The response from the establishment and from UMNO quarters simply do not matter anymore. To me the most important point is, it does not alter the fact that the UMNO/BN government is going to fall. My own feeling is, we will see an exact reversal of fortunes- BN will end up with not more than 90 seats, and PR will get around 132 seats. Najib will retire as PM and the new leader of the opposition will be MUhyidin where he will try very hard to revive a semi-comatose UMNO.
Can UMNO be saved if somehow mysterious forces at work manage to evict tenant Najib from Putrajaya? Hello- the struggle by PR is not about replacing Najib. We want to replace UMNO as the government. The whole idea of battling UMNO is not to see its leadership changed. That is not our concern; the whole idea is to have UMNO/BN replaced as the legitimate government with a government of PR partnership. We will not even entertain a scenario where Muhyidn replaces Najib as PM for such a scenario bodes ill for the country. As the Malays say, Muhyidin is 2x5, 5x2 in comparison to Najib. How can a man molded and shaped by UMNO’s value system and culture be able to improve UMNO?
Since much interest has been revived because of the conclusions reached by Bank Islam’s economist, I thought it fitting to reprise my article on the outcome of GE13.
At the time of writing, I was not sure about conditions in Sabah and Sarawak. In Sabah, it is now becoming clearer that the Chinese and Kadazans are coming together to form a strategic alliance. Their target is to have a non-Muslim CM as they form the majority grouping in the state. Only once they have supported a Muslim CM during Tun Datu Mustafa. They have no reasons to do so anymore since they now are aware they can secure the office for themselves rather than allowing the minority Muslim grouping under UMNO manipulate the powerful position of CM.
My article on the 30th of October 2012 read as follows:-
T. Adnan Mansor is the UMNO secretary General. What’s the T for?  If memory serves me sufficiently, a certain reptilian with a prefix T has become extinct. The same fate awaits T Adnan’s party come the next GE.
Clearly he is relishing his role as the court jester in Najib’s court. He comes up with the most bizarre of claims when the King is depressed. Judging from the high frequency of incredible claims issuing forth from the office of this chief court jester, the king must be suffering from frequent bouts of depression.
He says BN expects to win more than the 140 federal seats it took in the Elections of 2008. He is quoting trusted Government sources. Ah ha. Now, pray tell- can government sources tell us otherwise- that BN will lose? That would be doing an Anwar Blackeye- a self-inflicted wound. What exactly are government sources? Intelligence report? Reports from Kemas, Jasa or from something originating from Rais Yatim?  If from Rais Yatim- that would be understandable. He is never known to be numeric.
Despite admitting to the possibility of losing 6 seats in Sabah and 7 seats in Sarawak, BN says it can get more than 140 parliamentary seats?
If BN loses 13 seats in East Malaysia, PR will be getting 122 seats to BN’s 22. How so? Because in Peninsula Malaysia, PR is set to win 109 seats.  With Ibrahim Menudin set to win in Labuan, PR has 110 seats already.
What T Adnan dares not reveal is that, BN can lose up to 12 seats in Sabah and up to 13 seats in Sarawak, making a total loss of 25 seats from the East Malaysian states.
Now sit back and enjoy the horror story of BN being reduced to a party with 87 seats.  Not possible? Let’s educate T Adnan with some mathematics.


Group 1: The Northern States.
no
state
PR
BN
Total
1
Perlis
1
2
3
2
Penang
12
2
14
3
Kedah
12
3
15
4
Perak
17
7
24


42
14
56

Look at the 4 northern states. Out of 56 seats, PR wins 42 and BN wins 14.

Group 2: the west coast states.

State
PR
BN
total
5
Selangor
20
2
22
6
Negeri Sembilan
4
4
8
7
Melaka
2
3
5
8
Johor
9
17
26


35
26
61

PR wins the west coast states with 35 seats to BN’s 26.

Group 3: The East Coast States.
no
state
PR
BN
TOTAL
9
Kelantan
13
1
14
10
Terengganu
4
4
8
11
Pahang
5
9
14


22
14
36

Out of the 36 parliamentary seats in the East Coast states, PR can win 22 to BN 14.
The New Territories.
no
constituency
PR
BN
TOTAL
1
WP
10
1
11
2
Putrajaya
0
1
1
3
Labuan
1
0
1


11
2
13

PR has already won 110 seats not including those from Sabah and Sarawak. Like the Sabahans say- ini kalilah!
Ini Kalilah is heard loudly across the whole country.
What is PR wins 25 seats from East Malaysia? 12 from Sabah and 13 from Sarawak? what if, just as when the chips are falling on the night of the election results, Taib Mahmud and his 20 PBB parliamentarians say selamat tingal Najib? The chairman of the EC need not stay up the night. He should go home pack his bags and pray he hasn’t committed any irregularities while in office.


17 comments:

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 08:58  

Salam Dato,

I don't care whether it's PR or UMNO.

But, what I want is the intelligence of thinking, especially amongst high educated person such as Dato and other thinkers. (but NOT pengampu think tank)

Giving some genuine facts and data, social science and mathematical statistics and modelling, I think people such as you whom I think should be one of the leaders, maybe in economic planning unit or ministers, NOT people with Ph.Ds, but cannot differentiate between total number of Bersih 3 attendees and number of majlis Janji di tepati attendees forced with surat pekeliling.

What I mean here is, we want Malaysia to have very high integrity leaders, NOT stupid and foolish blood sucking leaders who on daily basis insult the maruah of RAKYATs.

We RAKYATs have very high expectation towards the PR leadership, BUT we don't want what the pepatah says "keluar mulut harimau masuk mulut buaya".

May ALLAH the Almighty God give truly clean leaqdership in this our beloved country MALAYSIA.

Wassalam.

profit 12 January 2013 at 09:06  

Saudara Sak,
You have not answered my question previouslypublished in your ABC article.Please answer with true honesty.

Roti Sunshine 12 January 2013 at 10:46  

Dear Datuk,

Time for the rakyat to UBAH and BANGKIT!

Seize the moment and seize the country back from those BN tyrants who have been sucking dry the country's coffers all these years.

Malaysians deserve better!

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 10:52  

Profit,
Your question was out of context with the article in the first place. On what grounds do you stand on to demand an answer to your question which is already out of topic?

Perhaps when the blog owner decides to revive said topic, then we shall have the answer to your question.

Leon

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 12:28  

ini kali lah-- its now or never--save malaysia

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 13:17  

Don't talk too much la buntal. Tunggu je PR13!!!!

bruno,  12 January 2013 at 13:27  

Dato,as far as the eyes can see,Umno is a gone case.Nothing they do can save their skin this time around.They are hoping that by delaying the GE till the very last day is that the leaders of PR will shoot themselves in the balls.Other than that,the caretakers are cleaning the Kamunting hotel,getting the rooms ready for them.

The rally later today will tell,how many seats Umno will lose this coming GE.A large crowd showing up and even Muhyiddin will be in Zimbabwe before the elections is called.He cannot be the opposition leader,for he will be long gone to avoid being a permanent resident of Hotel Kamunting.Maybe Hishamuddin will be the opposition leader.

Maybe after this elections is over,there will no longer be any Gerakan or Mca left.I think that they will closed shop.MIC will be a party consisting of maybe a few thousand members,the rest deserting them like there will be no tomorrow.Umno will be left to fend for themselves,and will be like the useless Gerakan of today.



Suci Dalam Debu 12 January 2013 at 13:50  

Sir,

Our dreams can become more realistic if we can overcome the undi POS killer blows.

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 15:51  

PR should not accept any corrupted party into its fold.

Those corrupted politicians from ruling party shud face appropriate charges than being accepted and shielded by another new ruling party.



Thina Selvam,  12 January 2013 at 17:16  

Dato,
Zaid Ibrahim and you is two people in malaysia that i respect the most, this analysis coming from makes my hope surge high, you made my day, thanx Dato

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 17:30  

Sak,

Kenyataan yang paling BODOH sekali oleh Timbalan Perdana Menteri Malaysia.

"Mengapa nak tukar?"

Buta ke bodoh, tak taulah tapi kalau inilah 'standard' yang TPM dakwa bagus, beliau langsung tidak layak menjadi PM.

Pok Li,  12 January 2013 at 18:17  

What can we say. That's the person Mahathir is pushing to replace Najib. UMNO has no leaders left.

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 18:32  

"Zimbabwe is ready to welcome all its
Malaysian friends"

Phua Kai Lit

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 21:20  

To All UMNO MP and BN MP pack your belongings .... anda punya kuasa dan autoriti sudah luput.. bersedia tukar tempat duduk dalam dewan rakyat ini bulan March...apa boleh buat rakyat sudah tidak mau sama antalah...

Anonymous,  12 January 2013 at 21:23  

Salam Dato,

Mampus pembesar-pembesar BN kali ini. Di tempat saya UMNO kelihatan lumpuh kerana ahli-ahli cawangan terkedu dengan gelagat pemimpin mereka.

Ahli-ahli umno cawangan tak mampu menjawab isu-isu yang dibangkitkan. Isu Altantuya, komisen kapal selam, lembu sharizat duduk di kondo mewah, LTAT dengan Ketua Wanita UMNO Selangor, isu Deepak dan sebagainya.

Tak sabar nak melihat katak-katak melompat, katak-katak lemas, katak-katak yang tak sempat pakai seluar untuk lari ke luar negara. Pastikan semua airport tutup sebaik saja pengumuman keputusan pilihanraya.

Mohd Zuki

Cahaya Qalbu,  12 January 2013 at 23:23  

Let's face the truth. BN/UMNO has run out of steam after 55 years in power with the same old half past six of individuals. No more dynamically innovative social or economic policies to advance the country further. What the rakyat received are more restrictive and regressive self-protectionists social policies. Any new social and economic policies implemented are meant for their self-preservation and personal financial gain only.

Suddenly, when there is new competition in town, BN runs helter-skelter trying to defend it aged fortress with their static thinking or ideas. When these hypocrites made rubbish statements via their controlled mainstream media, they are proud of it, as if they are the smartest in Msia. But the depth of their idiocy just froze those minds that didn’t know it’s coming, whilst those who heard it would run for cover.

The younger, educated individuals in PR have demonstrated beyond doubt of intellectual capacity, integrity and fresh ideas. They are willing to explore various avenues for the sake of the country as a whole, not in segregated holes, as the habitual policies of BN’s govt.

The BN-led govt spate of double-standard application is appalling and condescending. They just kept fumbling irritatingly with every justification and cover up attempts. It’s simply amazing and mind-boggling the array of idiocies they keep churning out.

Another absurdity, it’s downright ridiculous to see Jibby spent hundreds of millions RM of rakyat money to prop up his image just to be perceived presentable to the public. Definitely full of makeup but no real beauty we should say.

We have to change the existing govt. in the coming GE13. Rakyat should be actually glad that PR is very credible and has proven their mettle and capabilities in the states they administered. By comparison, the current crop of BNs’ leaders in govt. should be rustled up, send to the retirement and those found guilty of corruption to enrich themselves must be placed in ICU@BambooRiver.

~~~~

monsterball 13 January 2013 at 11:42  

Each rally is getting stronger and stronger in numbers of participants...against the Govt.
Yesterday's rally was truly the mother of all rallies.
The blind and deaf can feel and understand ..better than Najib with his pair of sharp eyes....cannot see....never will.
Sak's various tables calculations are practical....but lets not jump to the conclusion that there will be a 13th GE at all.
There are 88 days balance for Najib to decide the date.
I recalled how he kept denying knowing Alantuya being questioned by reporters...and end up saying..."living is important"....to somewhat exposed him...trying to live...by telling lies after lies.
Najib is and always have been a wounded tiger...acting not so...and the wounded tiger more and more...by Deepak...and others...with the rally..proving... People Power do not trust him or want him as PM.
All want change of govt.
He has 2 choices....resign and give Umno b a better chance in the 13th GE.....OR...plan fights...burn cars...houses...some killings...like May 13th 1969...where his father ousted Tunku...and now...son...hoping for Emergency Rule...not to oust anyone....but save his own skin.
After yesterday's rally...for the first time...you see Policemen smiling and friendly with the people. No gas bombs...no water cannons needed.
The Umno b gangsters read the message...and stayed away.
This time....many brought their young children...babies to participate in the rally.
Much to be admired..the parents...risking all..for country and people.
Yes....Emergency Rule will be Najib's last option.
BN winning...is out of the question...after 12th GE...and was so clear to him...as he keeps on delaying and delaying.
Then...there is another option...run away....for asylum....like Marcos.
Until 13th GE date is announced by Najib....do not take anything for granted....except the Police have changed for the better....and yet the head counts...from 80,000 to 40,000 is a sign...Police is still participating in politics...favoring BN.

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