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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Tuesday, 2 September 2008

UMNO's 66

UMNO has 66 MPs in the peninsular. The 66 will be a very important factor in the survival of UMNO.

Will Anwar form the federal government? He must. If he doesn’t he will be history.

If he does indeed form one, it will be for one term. Unless during that interlude, more Malay MPs join him and make PKR a Malay dominated party.

Whether Anwar likes it or not, he has to play politics against the real world. And the real world is, this country is 65 percent Malay. Malays need that comforting thought that this country is still a Malay country.

And during that one term, the PKR MPs will behave like saints. No corruption. No abuses of power. Necessary to convince people that they are indeed better than the UMNO and BN goons.

But it wont last long. Once the honeymoon fizzles out, PKR will turn into the very people they detest.

That is one scenario why PKR, if it forms the government will be a one term PKR government.

The other reason why it will be a one term government is because of demographics. UMNO has only 66 MPs in peninsular Malaysia. 13 comes from Sabah making a total of 79 UMNO MPs in parliament.

PKR has 43 Malay MP and 39 non Malay MPs. How will Anwar maintain PKR to be a Malay dominated party?

He needs 30 MPs to cross over to form the government but he needs to retain the Malay flavour of PKR. Otherwise, Anwar suffers the ignominy of becoming PM but his party is non Malay dominated. If the 30 MPs to cross over are non Malays, then PKR will have 69 non Malay against 43 PKR Malay. No go.

Lets us say that 30 non Malay MPS cross over, Anwar will need to rope in 30 Malay MPs to make it a 73:69 balance. Even more pertinent, the 30 must be UMNO MPs. That would be an ideal minimum number. Assume that the 30 who cross over are from east Malaysia.

I believe Anwar is in the market for 30 UMNO MPs. I am intrigued by the remark made by Dato Sallehudin Hashim( the PKR Secgen- does he still spot his pony tail?) that great political changes do not come from zero sum equations. Can it mean, that UMNO MPs cross over because they are convinced their decision is a win-win situation?

Its impossible for all the 13 UMNO MPs from Sabah to jump over. Lets assume that from the 13, Anwar manages to convince 8 to cross over. Sabah is left with 5 UMNO MPs. He still needs 22 Malay MPs. From UMNO in the peninsular.

Can he then go marketing for 22 Malay MPs from peninsular UMNO’s 66?

He can by:-

  1. Bribing them RM 20 million each
  2. By appointing them to ministerial posts.

Just suppose this happens. UMNO with 44 members in Peninsular, 5 UMNO MPs in Sabah and 15 MCA, 3 MIC and 2 GERAKAN. UMNO has 44 against 20 non Malay BN members who are by now, getting worked up. They have a new found aggression and will no longer play second fiddle to UMNO MPs. UMNO will handle the towkays and the chettiars gingerly now.

Assuming that the 30 buggers who jump over( buggers because they are willing to be sondoled by Anwar), what’s left of the BN is a composition of UMNO= 49, MCA/MIC/GERAKAN=20, and 11 seats from Sabah and Sarawak.

The final composition will be PKR= 142 vs. BN=80 seats. And PKR will have 73 Malay MPs and 69 non Malay MPs.

Anwar will then control the federal government and with that controls the flow of development money to the states that PKR has not yet controlled.

What will the now emaciated and emasculated UMNO do? Indeed what can it do?

Pak Lah and Dato Najib would have lost all credibility and trust to lead UMNO. UMNO succumbed under their stewardship. UMNO members will clamour for a strong leadership to lead UMNO. More important, they will insist on a leader with relatively unblemished record.

Najib will be history .Permatang Pauh has proven, that Dato Najib cant face off Anwar. If he cant while in power, he wont be able to lead UMNO when out of power. He is a liability to UMNO and must be sidelined if UMNO is to survive. Pak Lah has no other choice but letting the UMNO members decide on the leadership they think best to save UMNO.

And its not because I like or don’t like Tengku Razaleigh- but he remains the best hope yet for UMNO.

Tengku Razaleigh can capitalise on these things:-

  1. The disillusionment of UMNO members towards the Dollah-Najib Leadership
  2. The sense of deprivation and hopelessness Malays now feel.
  3. a new reason for Malays to unite- to wrest control from Pakatan.

For these reasons, I think Pakatan Government will be a one term government. The hold by which Anwar has over the 73 Malay MPs is a fragile one. Its even short than the 79 that UMNO now has. With 79 seats, UMNO is vulnerable, what can PKR with 73( 30 former UMNO MPs) do?

What will Tengku Razaleigh do to UMNO? He must consider forming a presidential council of advisers headed by Tun Mahathir. If he wishes to unite the Malays.

As they say in conclusion- Wallahu’alam.

3 comments:

the_willow 2 September 2008 at 18:35  

Tuan,
Umno's 66 & 'It's in the arithmetic, stupid' by RPK.
'Great minds think alike'....

sakmongkol AK47 aka Mat Tomoi 2 September 2008 at 19:04  

dear willow,
rpk is a legend. i on the other hand am just a country bumpkin. he and dato sallehudin come from the same school. i met sallehudin hashim when i was in shell, and he, at synergy. he had his pony tail then. many years ago.

MalayMind 5 September 2008 at 21:26  

Well tuan,

You have a basis and the arithmatic is clear.

But when people's having a craze, they will not hear any logical explanations.

Malays in PR has shut their eyes and ears

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