GE13: Operation PA-HANG

When addressing the society of Pahang born in Kuala Lumpur, Our Dear Leader Najib declared that Pahang must be 100% behind BN. Its now our Dear Leader as his posters and that of his spouse are sacred ground. Those that belonged to others are fair game. Defile and do whatever to posters belonging others, thats ok. 
Lets see how things fare in the biggest state in peninsula. it’s a matter of pride when it comes to Pahang as the PM comes from the state. He is MP for Pekan, since 1976 when he took over after his late father. But what else can he say other than displaying bravado to inspire his troops? He had to forfeit the inconvenient truth. He knows the numbers.

In 2008, results for selected parliamentary areas are as follows:-

Table 1

	Parliament seat	Actual voters	BN	PR	% opposition	Racial structure %age
						M	NM
1	CAMERON HLANDS	16400	9164	6047	37	43	57
2	RAUB	34000	18078	15326	45	49	51
3	KUALA LIPIS	21646	12611	8474	39	74	26
4	JERANTUT	37969	19543	17597	46	81	19
5	TEMERLOH	41245	21381	18940	46	63	37
6	INDERA MAHKOTA	39287	18796	19823	50	65	35
7	KUANTAN	35593	16572	18398	52	60	40
8	PAYA BESAR	30887	19355	10852	35	80	20
9	KUALA KRAU	27544	16165	10900	40	90	9
10	BENTONG	39004	25134	12585	32	43	56
11	BERA	33064	18051	14230	43	61	38

M=Malay; NM=Non-Malay

Column 6 shows the share of popular votes obtained by PR. PR made good showing in Raub(45%), Jerantut(46%), Temerloh(46%), Indera Mahkota(50%), Kuantan(52%) and Bera(43%). Based on 2008 performance, 6 seats showed great promise for PR. They won in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota(both through PKR).

There are a few peculiar features shown by Pahang and which are capable of being generalized.

(1) Areas with a large Malay population do not necessarily lead to easy wins for BN. Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan all have majority Malay voting populations. But in each of these areas, PR secured 46-52% of the votes. PR got 40% votes in Kuala Krau and 43% in Bera.

(2) It means Malays are more discerning and are ready to evaluate their voting preference in terms of the costs and benefits.

(3) Jerantut in particular with a population of 81% Malay voters saw PR took home 46% of the votes.

(4) As a rule, if PR puts up a Malay candidate in these areas, the Malay votes are easily split 50:50

How stable was the vote swing to the opposition? Very often, the gains made by PR were dismissed as protest votes. They probably were but no one is sure how much of the swing to the opposition in 2008 was done in the name of protest. They can’t all be protest votes and to think they were, would be a big mistake. It would also be a mistake to assume that they are easily retaken.

BN had the power of incumbency. Logically, with the amount of resources applied and having the power of incumbency, one would think, BN would have won big. But people still swung to the opposition. How can one explain that?

Their swing can only be attributed to a choice being made on the basis of conviction and belief. People believed in the PR and so made the swing. This type of voting preference is not easily overturned. On the other hand, votes secured through vote buying, intimidation, deception are fickle and can be retaken. So it is not open for BN to dismiss the vote swing to the opposition in 2008 as mere protest votes.It may even be the case that more votes will go to the opposition.

I have added Bentong in the analysis. Bentong has a sizeable non-Malay population which has shown a marked preference for PR especially for DAP. The Health Minister must rethink of staying in Bentong. 43% of the population is Malay and 56% Chinese. If 80% of non-Malays vote opposition while the Malay vote switches by 30%, Leow is gone. Rumors are circulating in the market that he wants to move back to Melaka where he comes from and replace Fong Chan Onn. BN won marginally in 3 out of 4 state seats in Bentong( Sabai, Bilut and Ketari). This time around I predict BN will lose the 3 state seats.

The best candidate to put up in Bentong would be non-Malay who is also acceptable to Malays. I can’t think of anyone more qualified that Leong Ngah Ngah- the indomitable ADUN from Triang.  Or a Malay acceptable to the non-Malays.

In 2008, the vote swing to the opposition was around 9%. Let’s allow a regain of 5% by BN. that is already a generous concession. That will still leave about 4% vote swing remaining with the opposition.  This of course assumes, PR have done nothing these years when they made great strides and where they won. What did they give? What they lacked in giving in terms of material, they gave in the form of better and more committed service. PR has also contributed to raising general awareness. BN on the other hand does a number of things- paying for votes, bringing development and so forth, daily dosages of propaganda through all the marketing means of the MSM.

The quality of votes is different. The vote for PR is stable while that of BN is fickle. It would also be unrealistic to assume, BN has regained completely from lost ground. Najib for example is busy marketing his own personal brand rather than improving the discredited brands of UMNO and BN. the Najib factor isn’t strong enough to resuscitate UMNO and BN. it’s even dangerous to rely on the Najib factor especially when Najib becomes the subject of greater scrutiny.

What does Table 1 tell us? Using the above table, PR has got clear wins in Indera Mahkota and in Kuantan. It made credible gains in Raub(45%) Jerantut(46%), Termerloh(46%) and Bera(43%). Which means, PR can add 4 more seats assuming the current vote swing remains.

Suppose now, we introduce the factor of a 4% swing for PR. The above table becomes:-

Table 2

Parliament seat	current% PR	Vote swing 4%	Racial structure
			M	NM
Cameron Hlands	37	41	43	57
Raub	45	49	49	51
Kuala Lipis	39	44	74	26
jerantut	46	50	81	19
temerloh	46	50	63	37
Indera mahkota	50	54	65	35
kuantan	52	56	60	40
Paya besar	35	39	80	20
Kuala Krau	40	44	90	9
Bentong	32	36	43	56
Bera	43	47	61	38

With a 4% vote swing with them, PR goes away with wins in Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan and Raub.  Conservatively, with a simple vote swing of 4%, PR wins in 5 parliamentary seats. It is almost there in Bera. 

Let’s introduce the race factor now:-

(1) Malay votes are split 50:50

(2) Non Malay votes- 80% goes to PR.

Table 3

PARLIAMENT SEAT	% PR	Racial structure		Malay 50:50 NM= 80% for PR		Scenario # 1	Probable scenario
	With 4% swing	M	NM	M	NM		Deduct 5%
CAMERON HLANDS	41	43	57	21	45	66	61
RAUB	49	49	51	24	40	64	59
KUALA LIPIS	44	74	26	37	20	57	52
JERANTUT	50	81	19	40	15	55	50
TEMERLOH	50	63	37	31	29	60	55
INDERA MAHKOTA	54	65	35	32	28	60	55
KUANTAN	56	60	40	30	32	62	57
PAYA BESAR	39	80	20	40	16	56	51

Look at the last column in the above Table 3. With racial factoring, PR can win up to 8 seats in Pahang. With 4% vote swing without racial factoring, PR can win 4 seats. PR can take

1.     Cameron Highlands( kick out Palanivel)

2.     Raub( kick out Ng Yen Yen)

3.     Kuala Lipis( kick out Suhaimi Ibrahim who’s rumored to contest there)

4.     Jerantut( Tengku Azlan is not seeking reelection)

5.     Temerloh( Saifudin Abdullah is going to be dropped)

6.     Indera Mahkota

7.     Kuantan

8.     Paya Besar.

My prediction is PR will win between 4 to 8 parliamentary seats in Pahang.

In the next article, I will try to show how many state seats can be taken by PR.