Not all Joy in Johor

I have deliberately left out analyzing my home state Pahang for the moment. Let’s leave the best to later. I want to do a Johor analysis.

Now Johor has always been touted as the bastion of UMNO. The Johor Malays seem to have a irrational obsession with UMNO. Since UMNO was said to be born on the steps of the Johor Istana, Johor is considered as the natural home for UMNO. It’s nearly invincible.Johor Malays appear to accept the natural order of things, i.e. UMNO is their protector.

But is it so?

Each morning, the Johor Malay after the subuh prayers will have his cup of coffee with his breakfast. What does he read first over all else? He reads Utusan Malaysia- the propaganda mouthpiece of UMNO. The dispossessed, the downtrodden Malay masses appeared enamored with UMNO.
Sometimes I think Johor Malays suffer from a peculiar political masochism. The more they are oppressed, humiliated and bullied, the more they are drawn towards UMNO. I did a ceramah at Kampung Melayu Majidee once. the place was one of the many depressed areas in Johor. yet for some time until the 2008 elections, Malays there supported UMNO. didn't this state produce a former MB who sold everything in Johor except the air and cemetery land, I asked?

But what was the figure we read during the last elections? There was a 14% swing to the opposition. What has happened to that swing? It is increasing and getting stronger. This has got the MB worried intimating to UMNO division heads in one meeting, that he expects at least 9 parliamentary seats and up to 16 state seats will fall to the opposition.

That means he has not discount fully the swing to the opposition acknowledging that at best, with all the efforts and the bribery that UMNO has carried out, UMNO has managed to claim back only some 5%. That will still leave around 9% swing with the opposition. With that conservative assumption, 9 parliamentary seats are indeed in jeopardy.

(a)	PARLIAMENTARY SEAT (b)	2004 SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (% of voters) (c)	2008 SUPPORT FOR PR (% of voters) (d)	Vote swing for PR (d/c) (e)	EXPECTED SUPPORT FOR PR (% of voters) (F)	PROJECTED WINNER (G)
1	SEGAMAT	40	44	10	53	PR
2	SEKIJANG	27	30	11	39
3	LABIS	34	40	18	49	PR
4	PAGOH	25	28	12	37
5	LEDANG	33	40	21	49	PR
6	BAKRI	37	50	35	59	PR
7	MUAR	35	41	17	50	PR
8	PARIT SULONG	30	32	7	41
9	AIR HITAM	22	23	5	32
10	SRI GADING	26	30	15	39
11	BATU PAHAT	30	37	23	46	PR
12	SINPANG RENGAM	29	33	14	42
13	KLUANG	36	44	22	53	PR
14	SEMBRONG	22	26	18	35
15	MERSING	22	23	5	31
16	TENGGARA	18	20	11	29
17	KOTA TINGGI	14	14	0	-
18	PENGERANG	-	-	-	-
19	TEBRAU	27	33	22	41
20	PASIR GUDANG	27	33	22	42
21	JOHOR BHARU	23	28	22	37
22	PULAI	26	31	19	40
23	GELANG PATAH	31	41	32	50	PR
24	KULAI	35	38	9	47	PR
25	PONTIAN	24	26	8	35
26	TANJUNG PIAI	26	31	19	40

My own estimates indicate that PR can win outright 9 parliamentary seats.  The seats currently held by UMNO/BN but can be dicey include  6 more seats of:-

1.     TANJUNG PIAI

2.     GELANG PATANG

3.     PULAI

4.     PASIR GUDANG TEBRAU

5.     SIMPANG RENGGAN

6.     PARIT SULONG

Really then, the number of parliamentary seats that could end with PR will be between 9 to 15 seats.

What does that make Johor? It is no longer the bastion of UMNO.

What about Johor Bharu which has a sizeable Chinese population who could prove to be a boon to PR? It depends on who is the UMNO candidate. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will switch to PR. Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand only if the UMNO people stokes his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim. He himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.

The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by the Chairman of UDA, Nurjazlan Mohamad Rahmat. A decent fellow but has recently been the victim of UMNO’s habit of practising infanticide. It kills off its young talent. When Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the PUdu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of UMNO warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money.