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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Sunday, 11 October 2009

Hooray! Isa Samad wins Bagan Pinang

Isa Samad has won Bagan Pinang with a majority of over 5000 votes. That is certainly overwhelming. I will try to offer some reasons why Isa won. However, that will have to wait, because I have something to let out my chest first.

On 10th of September, Sakmongkol Ak 47 wrote this:-

It is therefore very likely that Isa Samad will be the candidate.

Will UMNO be bothered by the expected sniggering and derision which will follow should Isa be selected? Who cares if that helps UMNO win.

Let's look at the numbers. There are about 14,000 voters in this Bagan Pinang DUN. 30% are non Malay voters. That's about 4200 people. The BN will probably get 30% of these voters which is about 1300 votes.

We now turn to the 70% voter who are Malays and that's around 9800 people. 5000 of them are voters from army camp- the postal voters. BN will likely get 95%. 4700-4800 postal votes for BN. That leaves another 5000 open voters. Let's say BN gets another 3000 votes. The total votes for BN will be around 9000-9500 votes. The opposition will get around 4-5 thousand votes. This time around the BN candidate will win with a majority close to 4000 votes.

Who can get 4000 vote majority for UMNO/BN? ISA SAMAD can. He is a former MB. That sets him apart from his opponent. He has a record of serving and spreading goodwill during his term as MB. I am sure his he has his network here and many relatives.

BN/UMNO can bag this one with a larger majority if Isa is chosen.

The full essay can be read here.

When I wrote many more articles on Bagan Pinang, I encountered a lot of ridicule and derision. Some commentators even congratulated PM Najib for not retaining me as ADUN for my area. Many wrote in saying I am a closet racist. Much more is at stake in the Bagan Pinang election. It's also about being UMNO and Malay. We needed a victory here to remind what it means to be UMNO and being Malay. It's about yanking off the millstone of collective guilt of being Malay. We can now talk about the hypocrisy, the false promises by the other side, without being guilty at being accused of having committed all the bad things.

We have shed off that guilt by being punished mercilessly at the 12th General elections. But, you see, unlike those PR people, we can now move on upon a new slate.

Yes, I am talking to those outside UMNO who said a lot of nasty things. The sunwaygopals who live in their dreamtime, the coloured bottles of this world, the spineless anonymous commentators who said a lot of abusive things, yes I am gloating tonight.

I have done nothing though other than interpreting the actual pulse of the people. The soldiers whom I have met who were candid and unguarded in their remarks, the unknown voters in the several Kampungs I met up. You on the other hand make up wonderful and fancy theories here and there, and relished the chance to abuse my assessments.

Wrong strategy guys- it is not at me that you direct your reasoning and arguments; it should be the voters that you needed to convince. We got you this time.

32 comments:

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 00:50  

Congrats Isa ,

I did mentioned before taking example of 'colorful' character like Bung Mokthar or maverick Shahrir as a rep of their constituency.They may not appeal to some ( maybe many for Bung) people or even among UMNO's gang ( Shahrir) but MOST important is what the people that vote in that area WANT.You may only see them from TV but the real people who can judge their service are their voters,who felt their contributions and listening to their griefs.Fighting to ensure they get the comfort and 'pembelaan' the best they can do.The same I see in Isa.Most do not care about UMNO's dicipline action against him but they are more keen to put him there because they felt their his service.

This is what most people who maybe are not voters some are not even registered as one but are just ONLINE whiners from cosy PJ,Damansara,Kuchai Lama,Georgetown,Jalan Ipoh etc.Get out of your cocoon and feel the majority.Learn to respect others for others to respect you.Sometimes an old yet simple advise to think before to talk(type) is worth to follow.

For BN , now that you are given a trust by the voters,please be humble , all the complains you have received while campaigning , please compile and solve it according to priority.Voters dont ask for helps daily , but when they do look into it.
Go back to basic , serve . With sincerity like we used to feel since days of my grandfather.I still feel BN can .

Jamal JB

Patriot 12 October 2009 at 00:55  

Congrats and enjoy your victory, but those who want a 2 party/coalition system for much needed check and balance fervently hoped that UMNO and Barisan Neraka has won a battle but will lose the war.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:09  

Pada pandangan pengundi baru dan yang bersifat atas pagar, kedua-dua pihak iaitu BN dan PR dilihat memiliki ciri-ciri universal iaitu setiap mereka ada kekuatan dan juga kelemahan masing-msing.

Dari segi sejarah, di satu pihak, oleh kerana BN telah lama duduk di kerusi kuasa makanya banyaklah persepsi negatif yang mewarnai parti berkenaan. Tidak ada yang terkecuali.

Sementara di satu pihak yang lain, PR hanya baru setahun jagung menikmati kuasa, makanya belumlah ada corak dan warna yang akan terlakar di tubuh mereka. Tetapi, itu bukan bermakna corak dan warna PR akan kekal seperti sekarang ini. Malah calitan-calitan hitam telah mula terlakar di sana dan sini.

Kalau diperhatikan keadaan semasa, secara perbandinganya, BN telah memasuki usia matang sementara PR baru memasuki gerbang kedewasaan (darah muda).

Kematangan usia membuatkan BN lebih cekal dan bersahaja dalam menghadapi tekanan dan dugaan. Namun apa yang lebih menyerlah ialah BN tidaklah beku dan statik sebagaimana dipersepsikan. Ini berbeza dengan LDP di Jepun yang kurang responsif dengan ruang masa dan keadaan dan akhirnya menyebabkan parti berkenaan ditolak ke tepi.

Di pihak PR, fasa kedewasaan di bayangi oleh tuntutan idealisme tetapi dalam masa sama mereka perlu bertarung dengan naluri dalaman yang meronta-ronta, yang mana kalau diikutkan darah muda mereka maka ia akan menyebabkan idealisme berkenaan tercicir di pertengahan jalan.

Untuk meneruskan penguasaan, BN hanya perlu 'mengurangkan apa yang berlebihan dan menambah apa yang kurang'. Sementara PR perlu melakukan lebih dari itu.

Melihat kepada perkembangan yang ada, amatlah sukar bagi PR yang berdepan dengan krisis kepercayaan dan tuntutan menguruskan kejayaan dalam suasana sekarang, yakni dalm era di mana semua mata galak memerhati gerak geri dan tindak tanduk PR, sedangkan dalam masa sama, mereka, terpaksa pula berdepan dengan reaksi balas ofensif pihak lawan.

Hakikatnya struktur dan komposisi kerakyatan Jepun adalah berbeza dengan negara ini. Dan kalau sekiranya BN terus mengamalkan pendekatan pembelajaran sepanjang hayat, makanya niat PR untuk memecahkan tembok dominasi BN sukar direalisasikan.

PR perlu bekerja beberapa kali lebih kuat kalau mahukan impian menjadi kenyataan.

APOLITIKAL

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:14  

Kedua-dua belah pihak tidak sempurna, oleh itu terpulanglah kepada rakyat untuk menilai siapa yang mengaku maksum tetapi hakikatnya ia ibarat jauh panggang dari api, siapa yang kotor tetapi tidak pula mengaku bersih (kalangan yang jujur) dan siapa yang mengaku tidak kotor walhal terpalit dengan lumpur (jenis hipokrit).

Antihipokrit

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:15  

congratulations

hopefully he won't create another 'din katak'

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:26  

The fact that some business enterprises stay open round the clock, peoples are free to move to any part of the country and all race are allowed to pursue education in vernacular school, is without a shadow of a doubt that people from all walks of life do actually appreciate the current demographic situation and its diversity.

Dulu Pas

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:31  

Panduan berguna untuk pengguna ialah:

1. Usah terlalu percaya kepada pengakuan dan promosi sesuatu produk baru kecualilah ianya dinilaikan dan dibuktikan secara objektif.

2. Penjual yang suka memburuk-burukkan produk pihak pesaing mereka adalah disebabkan produk mereka sendiri tidak berkualiti dan tidak dapat bersaing di pasaran.

ALPASIKU

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:42  

The time is running out for those who have not yet registered their name as the members of PR as this coalition (unless with divine intervention) would come to an end very soon!

Pious Chinglot

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 01:47  

Untuk memasuki medan tempur bukan saja ketua harus berwibawa malah aspek yang sama juga harus dimiliki oleh semua para anggota bawahan. Lagipun musuh tidak akan gerun cuma kerana terbayangkan kehebatan seorang dua kepala tentera tetapi mereka pasti gerun kalau kesemua bala tentera turut digeruni sebagaimana musuh tadi gerunkan pihak yang mengepalai bala tentera berkenaan.

Andikarya Maya

Syed SP 12 October 2009 at 02:08  

Well.. do you know what was among the factors Barrack Hussein Obama gained the unexpected momentum in the Democrats presidential nomination? Because he was (and probably still is now) a respected politician who didn't just say things because it was safe to say so. When many congressmen vote for wars on Iraq, he vehemently opposed to that because he simply thought it wasn't the right to do blah blah... etc, you know it.

One of the biggest flaw in politicians that people like me are looking for is credibility and the ability to say things which are right, but unpopular.

So Datok, I think with all due respect to you, I think you should stop self-congratulating yourself. Because I do remember you saying the other way no matter how you justify it later on. And I am not sure my posting here will get past thru your moderation this time.

Mohd 12 October 2009 at 02:17  

Dato Sak,

In your analysis ,please examine on the non-Malay voters.Discount the postal votes because it is a foregone conclusion. The fight against corruption and the need for transparency and the so much talk about UMNO arrogance is also the non-Malays opposition agenda.Did not the non-Malays collectively abandoned ship? The lesson learnt is that the non-Malays vote for a winner. So, in your happiness, please do not forget that in other Malay majority areas UMNO may not be so lucky where there are no postal votes.

YANG GAMBI 12 October 2009 at 07:27  

Rakyat tidak selamanya menerima cramah penipuan, fitnah dan caci maki PAS-pakatan.....

Rakyat telah menguji mereka di Selangor, Pulau Pinang dan Kedah, ternyata mereka hanya pandai berhujah fitnah, tetapi tidak mampu melaksanakan janji-janji merreka.

Itulah balasan kepada pendusta......

Afif 12 October 2009 at 08:32  

Hooray for corruption!

PD folks think it's okay to give and receive bribery! Just don't feed your kids or family with those dirty money or they'll be forever tinted with sin. Congrats everyone.

Suci Dalam Debu 12 October 2009 at 08:43  

Sir,

Many congrats to ISA and you too.

Hope this is not a dead-cat bounce.

On the other hand, this loss is good for PAS and PR because it would teach them more about the need to cooperate.

Greenbottle 12 October 2009 at 09:05  

my congratulation to isa samad and umno for the BP win!

and i hope he won't revert to old habit of showering dollar notes to keep people happy. it's not good for him, for the people who receive them and for unmo.

for dato' sakmongkol to say that "We needed a victory here to remind what it means to be UMNO and being Malay. It's about yanking off the millstone of collective guilt of being Malay..." is rather over the top.

to me this victory is meaningless.

this has nothing to do with yanking off collective guilt of being a malay.

and it doesn't end the discource on the need for umno to rid one of it' biggest problem (among many). namely, corruption.

it's probably not too wise to gloat too soon... this BP landslide win may just be a merely localized and temporary insanity due to unique factors and situation.

it may even create a whole lot of new problems for umno!

rakyat kecewa,  12 October 2009 at 09:28  

Dato' Sak,

Tahniah kerana 'menang'.

Selepas ini, saya ingin mencadangkan kepada YAB PM supaya 'drop' KRA no. 2 (mencegah rasuah).

Pegawai-pegawai kerajaan serta consultant (Con-Sultan?) yang sedang sibuk di 'labs' dekat Putrajaya bawah kawalseliaan Senator Idris Jala pun boleh la berkemas untuk 'tutup kedai'.

Lepas tu jangan salahkan penjawat awam kerana indeks korupsi semakin teruk.

Saya pernah berbincang dengan rakan di Jab. Penerangan yang seringkali dibantai oleh Pak Menteri kerana BN kalah disebabkan Jab. Penerangan 'tidak buat kerja', walhal saya tengok macam-macam diorang dah buat. 'Tidak buat kerja' bermaksud tidak menyampaikan dasar-dasar kerajaan (dasar-dasar BN sebenarnya) dengan efektif. Mungkin sekarang beliau boleh la menarik nafas lega sekejap.

Ya, saya kecewa, hanya kerana hendak menang, YAB PM menggadaikan prinsip yang dia sendiri canang dan 'championed'.

BN, sinonimnya 'cakap tak serupa bikin'.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 09:44  

Dato Sak, I congratulated you and UMNO/BN on the victory, however I see you are gloating. Are you ?
I want to say Isa, UMNO/BN should be thankful that they were given a second chance to do what's right. You must admit the candidate was tainted and guily. Isa and Umno admitted it when they mentioned Isa has paid his dues and should not be punished second time. My concern is, has Isa really really insaf or he would be more careful not to be caught again ?
I should congratulate the Bagan Pinang people because of the promises made by UMNO/BN.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 11:40  

AK,
A tainted man won ? Slowly the malays will say that TUHAN can close one eye lah!Never mind how corrupted you all are God would say semua okay!
We have reached the pits man!

Nik 12 October 2009 at 12:41  

Dato'

The interesting Question that lingered before and even after the election since it can only be proven if another candidate was chosen!....

Would it had made a difference if another candidate was chosen instead of Isa...Tun Mahathir indicated that it would had not made a difference since the area was a BN Stronghold!

In this case UMNO Top Leaders were checkmated by Isa and now they have to contend with him as well as the Stigma that UMNO supports Corrupted Leaders and hence Corruption...

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 12:51  

Dat Sak

You are a man of contradictions. You have stated many times in various postings that you want UMNO to change for the better if it wants to win the peoples' hearts and minds. But when UMNO's corrupt rep ( how else can you call Isa)wins, you gloat. As long as UMNO wins its okay. I suppose at the next GE, UMNO can ask all the corrupt, the ugly and dity to stand and contnue its business as usual.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 13:02  

Now that the election is done and gone, the real fight starts. It is Isa vs Hassan. May the best man win.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 13:16  

Blogger Syed SP said...

' Well.. do you know what was among the factors Barrack Hussein Obama gained the unexpected momentum in the Democrats presidential nomination? Because he was (and probably still is now) a respected politician who didn't just say things because it was safe to say so. When many congressmen vote for wars on Iraq, he vehemently opposed to that because he simply thought it wasn't the right to do blah blah... etc, you kno"

-----------------------------------

Awak gunakan isu Obama untuk menjustifikasikan persepsi awak terhadap senario politiking semasa. Awak mengatakan Obama mendapat momentum kerana menentang penjajahan di Iraq walhal ia bertentangan dengan sentimen di Dewan Kongres?

Awak lupa bahawa yang mengundi Obama bukanlah mereka yang beada di dalam Dewan Kongres. Yang mengundi Obama adalah rakyat jelata. Bukankah rakyat jelata di negara Uncle Sam sudah bosan dengan polemik ketenteraan di Kota Babylon? Oleh itu bukankah Obama bijak menggunakan sentimen yang melata dalam kalangan 'Main Street' iaitu isu Iraq walhal lawannya M'caine cuba menentang arus berhubung isu yang sama?

Kesimulannya ialah kalau PR terus menggunakan sentimen yang melata dalam kalangan pemimpin dan para blogger tetapi dalam masa yang sama meminggirkan sentimen yang melata dalam kalangan rakyat jelata. Dan apabila rakyat bersuara di BP dan PR menerima pukulannya maka bukankah itu bermakna sentimen yang cuba dijaja oleh pemimpin dan para blogger PR adalah bukan sentimen yang melata di kalangan bawahan?

Manusia tidak ada yang sempurna. Ada kalanya mereka membuat perkiraan yang tidak tepat. Kalau ada PRU PR mendapat mandat yang banyak kerana mereka nampak jelas sentimen pada waktu itu, tetapi kini mereka tidak berapa memahami bahawa sentimen bukan sesuatu yang tetap sebaliknya berubah-ubah.

ALPASIKU

samsaimon,  12 October 2009 at 13:39  

Dato' SAK,

This victory is a blessing in disguise. The people of Bagan Pinang is cunning enough to vote for BN. Its the GOODIES promised they are after! They want it! Hope you don't fail them.

Next GE 13 will be different altogether!

Syed SP 12 October 2009 at 13:46  

On a more positive node, here is my 2 cents:-

1) Landslide BN victory is probably localized, but my honest observation is BN is already on the better side - nationally.

2) However, I would love to see strong opposition, and the DUN/MP distribution as of now should be retained. Don't give BN/Opposition any landslide victory, at least for the next 3-4 GE.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 18:24  

You were sport on, Dato'. Congrats.

1) I'm now reading the BN politicians, particularly Umno making whoopee, claiming the BP victory is proof the people are accepting Umno/BN again. What do you think? I await your analysis on this. Was this s case of the singer not the song.
Umno shouldn't be celebrating to early and too long. They still have got a lot to do to win hearts and minds.Jangan riak ya!

2) So BN won. (For this I got to say in Malay.) Tapi bagi saya seorang Melayu, terkilan juga rasa nya melihat Melayu sama Melayu duk maki hamun, katanya kalau tak ada polis mungkin parah juga.

Soalan saya: Takde ruang langsung ke untuk dua parti ni bedamai? Aqidah satu, mungkin fahaman politik saja yang berbeza.
Apakah orang Umno akan cuba menhulurkan tangan kpd orang Pas untuk berbaik2 demi keutuhan ummah. Bukan suruh bergabung, tetapi katakan lah ada usul yang Umno bawa yang baik unto perpaduan ummah, tak kan orang Pas tak boleh sokong (atau sebalik nya).
Orang Umno dan orang Pas harus tanya: Lepas pilihanraya 2008, apa yang orang Melayu dapat dan apa yang lain dapat?
3) Last-last, kpd bloggers yang pro-Umno tu (bukan blog Dato', jauh sekali), tolong lah jangan lah terlalu dgn kata2 yang kurang menyenangkan. Ingat, orang2 yg dipersendakan ia lah saudara kamu juga.

Sekian, terima kasih

Anak Adam

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 19:15  

You are gloating? Hahahahahaha...suddenly you feel so sure about everything.

Congratulations to BN for their win but there will be numerous interpretations of the by-electon result. 7 out of 8 is still a fantastic result for the Opposition.

nxforget 12 October 2009 at 19:58  

Dato,

Once again, congratulation to Isa and UMNO for the victory.

Like I said in earlier posting, character is just a small part of the equation as the people are also on the take.

Isa has been dishing out goodies and big guns of UMNO are also making big promises to deliver bigger goodies. The people, off course, are very happy and hopeful.

Seriously dato, a person of your caliber and high stature, are you happy with this victory other than to clear your chest of being insinuated and insulted. The victory also boost the morale of BN but at what cost to the nation.

If this is the case, we the malays have got a long way to go before achieving what we term "duduk sama rendah, berdiri sama tinggi"

Just a two cents thought.

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 20:08  

Saya terkejut melihat cara berkempen parti pas di bagan pinang. tak sama langsung dengan dulu2. sekarang ni lelaki ngan pompuan bercampur aduk, suara pompuan lagi nyaring dari lelaki sampai angkat tangan tunjuk ketiak. dulu ni semua haram.. sekarang okay.

tu pasal org bagan pinang pelik tgk gelagat org2 yg berkempen utk pas ni.tak heran kalau org kampung di bgn pinang (kaw mentua saya) tak begitu menyokong.

mamat pd

Bangsa Cina Malaysia 12 October 2009 at 21:08  

a blessing in disguise for Pakatan Rakyat..now they will have to work more harder as a team/coalition
in confronting an awaken BN…

to all the 10 DAP adun of NS….
this is a wake up call…
without the Malay vote DAP is nothing….next general election
NS DAP / West Malaysia will be totally wipe out
unless they start approaching/bonding/engaging/
respecting the Malays who are the majority in NS/Malaysia

Anonymous,  12 October 2009 at 22:58  

The reason why chinese voted for Isa is because of their business concern. They do not want to see their business disrupted. T.Kemang is an enterprising area because of it beaches which are crowded every weekend. All restaurant, seafood or others are full and hard to find a seat.

Come school holidays it is even worse..packed right from T.Kemang to the town. Business and money everywhere..thats livelihood. So why disrupt the harmony and political stability there.

Isa was accused for money politics is subjective and how one see it.
Imagine staying in KL during the umno general assembly to provide support. If the meeting goes for three days..what will be the cost like??? Is it fair for supporters to pay out of their pocket.

In the malaysian way of life, if you want me to support you, you pay to cover my travelling cost, hotel accomodation and makan money without which how can I make the journey. In the true sense it is not corruption.

The chinese voted wisely.

Yap

Anonymous,  13 October 2009 at 14:11  

"In the malaysian way of life, if you want me to support you, you pay to cover my travelling cost, hotel accomodation and makan money without which how can I make the journey. In the true sense it is not corruption."

The Malaysian way of life? Wow. Stop degenerating us according to your flawed logic. Even if your name is the reversed of Pay.

-troll

sakmongkol AK47 13 October 2009 at 15:45  

dear visitors,
i made it clear, i wanted to gloat over this. its especially aimed at those who ridiculed and even mocked by issuing the warning- just you wait for the people of Bagan Pinang will teach you a lesson. they did teach you people a lesson- aw, dont go preaching that by doing so, the people of bagan pinang is endorsing corruption.
i spelt out clearly, yes i want to gloat. if you people missed that, sorry cant help you there. you see what you want to see only. pitiful.

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