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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Thursday, 10 September 2009

UMNO must win Bagan PInang


 

It seems that only one name in UMNO is mentioned as a very possible candidate for Bagan Pinang. Isa Samad.

What's uppermost in UMNO's mind right now? It's to win. This one win will allow it to neutralize all the other losses. To win being the overriding objective will mean UMNO will shake off its scruples. If they have to choose any person, even if that person is tainted, they will. Winning now is everything. So much is at stake here.

My own thoughts about this are as follows. PM Najib hasn't got strong objections on Isa Samad being chosen to contest. At the moment there are no strong countervailing forces in UMNO to stop Isa from being selected. The NS ketua Perhubungan will play a game that suits a new UMNO president and PM. The PM knows that there was more than what caches the eye when Isa alone was discharged as vice president. If Isa is selected, it will be a vindication of sorts and for Isa, personally if he is selected; his selection will be the comeuppance to his political enemies.

If Isa wins he's going to be an ADUN only. No threat to the UMNO higher echelons. And if the general assembly endorses the requirement that one should be a member of MKT for a number of terms before being eligible to offer oneself for higher office, Isa Samad is a non starter in terms of threats to UMNO leadership. That despite him being at one time, the highest vote getter among UMNO VPs. We remember after his victory, he gave his famous anti-benediction- those who took from him who did not so vote him, shall answer on the Day of Judgment. He's a scary individual.

But he is a good friend to the PM and can serve as a useful ally in Negeri Sembilan and for future purposes. It is therefore very likely that Isa Samad will be the candidate.

Will UMNO be bothered by the expected sniggering and derision which will follow should Isa be selected? Who cares if that helps UMNO win.

Let's look at the numbers. There are about 14,000 voters in this Bagan Pinang DUN. 30% are non Malay voters. That's about 4200 people. The BN will probably get 30% of these voters which is about 1300 votes.

We now turn to the 70% voter who are Malays and that's around 9800 people. 5000 of them are voters from army camp- the postal voters. BN will likely get 95%. 4700-4800 postal votes for BN. That leaves another 5000 open voters. Let's say BN gets another 3000 votes. The total votes for BN will be around 9000-9500 votes. The opposition will get around 4-5 thousand votes. This time around the BN candidate will win with a majority close to 4000 votes.

Who can get 4000 vote majority for UMNO/BN? ISA SAMAD can. He is a former MB. That sets him apart from his opponent. He has a record of serving and spreading goodwill during his term as MB. I am sure his he has his network here and many relatives.

BN/UMNO can bag this one with a larger majority if Isa is chosen.

17 comments:

Anonymous,  10 September 2009 at 08:15  

good forecasting..

but probably a higher turn out cos coincidentally the voting will be on a weekend.

And bit optimistic for BN to get 30% of the 4000 Non Bumi and the 4000 Bumi voters turnout..will be in the low 25% i.e max of 2000 votes.If Isa Samad is the candidate myb can go to 3500..friends n family factor but no shift on non bumi votes there.

The postal voting..you will see the big shift here..PAS has started door to door canvassing at the army camps.they realise thats the key and have mobilised the machinery..and worked the channels through the frens and family network...expect only 3500 max for BN.If the proposal from PR on changes to postal voting procedures..then the number slips to 2500.

Zahid may announce a bumper 750 ringgit Raya bonus but it won't work this time.

Thus BN at best can garner only 7000 votes against PR of 6000...a 1000 majority at best.

BN must hv ISA (the man) and oppose changes of postal votes procedures if they want to win.

Any other formula will see a win by PR by 1800 votes.

james bong,  10 September 2009 at 09:01  

and so, UMNO's take is win at all cost irrespective of whether the candidate is tainted or not... sounds SO very UMNO.

I'm appalled and ashamed to even read this kind of immoral philosophy.

sakmongkol AK47 10 September 2009 at 09:10  

james bong,
you are entitled to your moral scrupples. if Isa is chosen, thats because he has been punished. if Isa gives BN no chance of winning, why are you concerned? you should support Isa's candidacy if that leads to PR victory, no?

Nik 10 September 2009 at 09:19  

Dato'

Going to the People for a decision is really no different from going to Court for a Judgement....

The decision is not yours, i.e. to be decided by a third and other party....

A judge? you can contain... But People? You never know... Look at Manek Urai... Pas expected more but got less...

Only those on the ground in Negeri Sembilan have more Psyche than us outsider...

The Funny thing is, it could be a boon to BN in picking Isa...But It could also be a mistake if minds have changed since his earlier political demise. Let's hope he obtained some good moral/ethical lessons from his experience.

Ree,  10 September 2009 at 11:20  

This seat should be in BN's pocket. The question is the majority.

The advantage of selecting Isa is that he might get a convincing majority. This will definitely be a morale boost to BN's troops who have been suffering from continuous setbacks.

The disadvatage is that, at national level, Isa's selection strenghten's the percention that UMNO = money politics. Same tainted people rules UMNO. Giving more ammo for the Opposition in GE13.

So, a much needed tactical victory but at a price of another weak spot at strategic level.

Guat Hoon 10 September 2009 at 12:06  

Dear Datok Sakmongkol,

I have been following your writing for quite sometime now and have high regards for your writings and views. You have always taken a higher ground on issues that may not be favourable to UMNO as long as good governance and credibility is concerned.

Your support for Isa Samad is understandable (with regards to win at all cost) but DISAPPOINTING. This write up has revealed the UMNO in you is too entrenched to see beyond the moral stance needed here for clean, incorruptible governance that you often speak of.

I guess one can remove you from UMNO but not the UMNO in you.

I had thought you were made of sterner stuff.

Anonymous,  10 September 2009 at 12:51  

Dato,

If you want to eradicate or minimise money politics, this would send the wrong signal. The end cannot justify the means, be it UMNO or PKR. If he had been charged in court, it would have been a criminal offence and barred from running. But because it was not taken up by ACA but by the party, he is still eligible.

Winning this time is not going to solve UMNO's problems by any means but will only give a temporary 'feel good' factor. If you are serious about reforming UMNO, this would definitely not be the way to go. But what do I know, I am not an UMNO member and don't want to be associated with it either if this is the way the party operates.

Kala Jengking,  10 September 2009 at 12:57  

I beg to differ with you. You said " if Isa is chosen, thats because he has been punished". But wasn't the Rohaizat guy been punished (dis-barred)as well? And did you defend the choice of Rohaizat? No? This is double standards on your part. What is so special about Isa? Just because he is an ex-MB? or close to your divisin head? Win at all cost? Matlamat menghalalkan cara the UMNO way?

Wasn't he the one that was found guilty of money politics by his own party? Was he also not the one that said "jumpa saya di padang masyar" to those who took his money but do not vote for him? I am afraid by choosing this guy UMNO, besides providing PR with ample ammunitions, is sending the wrong signal to the people that the party condones corruption and money politics. No sincerity. No honesty. No integrity.

It is difficult for an UMNO member to change...because many who are inside there just to cari makan-personal agenda. This is reality. No apologies.

My take (and I am being honest)... Umno will win Bagan Pinang but with reduced majority. This is solely due to the postal votes. Without the postal votes, it is touch and go. Why do we still have postal votes? Are we at war? The army personnel cannot be given time off to caste their votes like everybody else? I still cannot understand. Apart from maintaining it to give advantage to the government, can anybody explain the need or the rational for this postal votes for the army? But than again, we plan God decide.

Anonymous,  10 September 2009 at 13:35  

Sak,

First there was his father Dato Samad as ADUN for Bagan Pinang.

Then Isa took over.

Now his son is being promoted.

Apa ni? Even in the NS royalty, the son is not guaranteed to succeed the throne.

Avalion

Anonymous,  10 September 2009 at 13:57  

Dato,

Been a true-blue umno man, what's yr take on the piece just written by Steadyaku47?

I think it rings & yet I'm NO umno man, thus I've no right to object within umno.

But as an anak M'sian, I'll not want another corrupted umno warlord(proven by umno itself) to be anywhere near the M'sia govt administration boundaries, be that in Parliament or DUN!

What is the bigger issue - ABN or the continue relevancy of umno in current stage of standing?

R umno that short of untainted talents?

Is winning by any means that important to umno now?

Is umno taking the Bagan Pinang electorate for a ride?

All these could back-fire if those voters (all races) take this up personally as a group!

The older heartlanders would felt insulted, especially with such issue raised during the holy month of Ramadhan. The younger one is largely opposition-leaning. U then only depend on the umno die-hards, where camps r now fighting for diminishing power influences & war-chest(?) for the on-coming haydays.

The Dlls' votes r already a lost cause!

So the only 'sure' thing is that 5k postal vote. But even that there could be some leakage that might sufficient to topple the boat.

My take PR wins with ~500 majority due to current people sentiment.

anomie

One Pip 10 September 2009 at 14:34  

emm.. "if Umno wants to win, it must oppose changes to postal voting procedures". Astaghfirullah... no wonder this nation is in mess! Umno first, fair-play, justice, long-term interests of the nation come second. Umno is really really sick...

p/s: If Umno wants to retain power, it must oppose to reforms in the police force, MACC, judiciary etc

Nik 10 September 2009 at 15:29  

Dato'

You said;

"What's uppermost in UMNO's mind right now? It's to win. This one win will allow it to neutralize all the other losses. To win being the overriding objective will mean UMNO will shake off its scruples. If they have to choose any person, even if that person is tainted, they will. Winning now is everything. So much is at stake here"

By doing so It's likely that UMNO can Win the Battle but Chances are it will Lose the War....

In addition, Isa can create Havoc with those in the party who assisted in putting him away....Remember, he is a fighter and may not have forgiven them....

Heck, I can understand your short term thinking.... Why not! Things couldn't get any worse for UMNO...

Suci Dalam Debu 10 September 2009 at 15:39  

Sir,

Could you enlightened us why there are so many postal voters there?

5000 is a very SIGNIFICANT number.

ISA could be a sword that cuts both ways.

Anonymous,  10 September 2009 at 17:35  

Dato, It is UMNO in you to postulate that winning at all cause is all important. You i.e UMNO cannot get away from modus operandi that "matlamat menghalalkan perbuatan" What can we expect of UMNO when this kind of principle contimue to be accepted. Abuse of power , corruption, no tranparency , without integrity are habits will continue and this speak bad of the current managements.

Kala Jengking,  10 September 2009 at 17:36  

I have done my calculations basis current sentiment :

Total 14,000 voters.

Malays = 66% = 9,240
Non-Malays = 34% = 4,760

Postal votes 90% to UMNO = 4,500
Lain2 Malays - 50% to UMNO = 2,120
Lain2 Non-Malays- 20% to UMNO = 952

Total votes to UMNO = 7,572
Balance PR = 6,428
Majority for UMNO = 1,144

Assuming percentage voter turnout will reduce the votes correspondingly, does the above make sense? Just a 10% more swing in postal votes will spell trouble for UMNO. You see, without the postal votes, UMNO is dead meat.

Voice of the Oppressed, Suppressed 10 September 2009 at 21:54  

I know you will spike comments that contradicts your stand. You spiked one of my comments recently and you will do the same this time.
You are one Malay chauvinist with blinkered eyes. You cannot distinguish between morality, integrity and race interests.
You are a sick man!

Anonymous,  11 September 2009 at 00:27  

take off the postal votes, whats left of BN? not even a majority unfortunately.

simply, UMNO has to reform else it will take BN down. The same destiny as LDP in 4 years time?

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