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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Friday, 11 September 2009

Bagan Pinang: Practical Level politics.

This coming by election in Bagan Pinang presents UMNO people a lab to test out the meaning of strategies and tactics. UMNO can't change its past. It must look forward. Looking forward requires an understanding of what strategy amounts to. It's essentially looking forward. It provides the guidelines for growth. With strategies, you are in reality, speaking of future performance gaps and how you are going to overcome them.

Being tactical is more or less present or now orientated. It is about present performance gaps and how you are going to overcome them in order to support the strategies. The gaping thing now is to plug the demoralising losses.

What elements at present, satisfy this need? One, a winnable candidate. Two, not giving up any advantage. The winnable candidate may be disliked by some, but the more important question is, is he winnable? If yes, forget about the past. People will continue to hantam him anyway. If they looked hard enough, there will always be material to persecute him. Isa Samad is a winnable candidate and can be persecuted. But he is winnable and that's what UMNO wants now. It's now oriented and it's tactical.

The advantage? The presence of voters by post. The general who uses the terrain to his advantage wins. The general who sacrifices the advantage loses. So Mein General... You want to win Ja?

By the way, I get this sense that many people don't understand what postal votes mean. It does not mean you vote through the mail. The 'post' is the army base where the soldier or military voter is based. He casts his votes inside the army or military premises under the same arrangements as civilian voters do. That is people from SPR are there as are representatives of the contending parties. They have with them the register of military voters. You vote according to the post you are stationed and you are a registered voter in that particular camp. You don't post your votes through the mail.

Strategy is 'any long-term plan', which will be the product of 'the art of conducting a campaign and manoeuvring an army.' Tactics are 'purposeful procedure' achieved by exercising 'the science or art of manoeuvring in presence of the enemy'. The two are as close as Siamese twins. Companies need the twin skills - those of the strategist, who can select the right long-term objectives and envisage the means that will reach those goals: and those of the tactician, who will deploy those means in a series of manoeuvres - short, medium and long-term - to achieve the desired ends.

What about the higher issues of morality, integrity, honesty and all that? Values? These are long term objectives more in tune with issues of strategy. Hardly issues at all at practical level politics. Only engaging topics for debates to impress audience and the pastime to bloggers like Sakmongkol.

14 comments:

Are You Gonna Go My Way,  11 September 2009 at 15:32  

You're absolutely right there....as long as you're a BN politician you'll always be tainted with something from the past whether true or not. Simply because you'd been in power before. Wait till the next election and see how the PR politician will fair …with the like of Ron Liew, Eli Wong, Khalid Samad, Khalid Ibrahim etc…being scrutinized by all.

Isa Samad is winnable and so does Tun Mahathir although being accused of everything under the sun. So if it is winnable, use it. Use Tun too and don’t be shy Najib just tell Tun I want to use you to win our next GE. Don’t be like Pak Lah.

Anwar Ibrahim is tainted too…but he is an absolute winnable person. That’s why PAS and DAP is using him.. not because they love him that much.

Anonymous,  11 September 2009 at 15:44  

Hahahahaa!!!! Dato', you make me laugh of your "postal votes mean".
As an ex general in the forces, If I may suggest that you stop trying on that issue as you do not know at all-simple!!!
Strategy is winning the war and tactics is winning the battle, so keep it simple... surely you are not too tired to think or Ramadhan is taking its toll on you?
Anyway, dengar lagu P Ramlee lagi bagus dari dengar nama Isa Samad, not that I hate him but he is partly responsible for bringing down UMNO and make majority of the youngsters hate UMNO/BN.dh9753.

Red Alfa 11 September 2009 at 15:58  

Dear Datuk

By your analysis the LDP had employed every tactic to win while DPJ had taken the high road strategy. You had suggested there are lessons to learn, here.

Your suggestion of practical level politics for Bagan Pinang does not appear a lesson learned, surely.

yb,  11 September 2009 at 16:05  

hello! hello! wake-up wake-up. You must have been suffering from amnesia!

Dear dear boy, almost everyone knows about postal votes LAH!

Need I explain further? On the procedure perhaps?

Oops is someone watching you? eh?

Anonymous,  11 September 2009 at 16:32  

Dato,

Is UMNO/BN is sooo bad that it does not has other winnable candidates instead of that small guy. What happen to its leadership plan. If it doesnt have it now it going to be like LDP.

Anonymous,  11 September 2009 at 16:36  

ahmad maslan will suggest only way to win is to go marching,shooting and spitshine boots with the army guys..is that tactics?

samy vellu will tell najib that he will personally meet every single indian,,there's about 4000 ..and make sure they vote for BN...is that strategy?

the cowhead gang will be quickly prosecuted and imprisoned..thats tactics?

Strategy and tactics all same same..cos wat is tactics for some is an embodiment of their personal strategy.

And personal strategy is the ONLY cause of UMNO's downfall..

sakmongkol AK47 11 September 2009 at 16:54  

anon at 15:44
pls mein general.. explain what postal votes me. dont pretend you know.

yb at 16:05
rather than pontificate, tell us what you understand by postal votes.

perhaps you and the 'general' above who prabably didnt make hay while it shone when he was a general, need a royal commision to establish what postal votes mean?

wakey wakey oi you two

Anonymous,  11 September 2009 at 17:18  

This was a reply given in the Malaysian Parliament, in response to a question by DAP MP Loke Siew Fook:

"Sejumlah 10 cabutan khas (special draw) yang telah dibenarkan oleh Kerajaan pada tahun 2008. Jumlah kutipan cukai yang diperolehi daripada cabutan khas tersebut adalah sebanyak RM77,026,171.04. Kerajaan membenarkan cabutan khas diadakan berdasarkan kepada keperluan semasa yang bertujuan untuk membiayai pelbagai program/projek pembangunan yang berbentuk sukan, kebajikan, pendidikan, kesihatan dan kemasyarakatan."

That works out to around RM7,702,600 per draw in the government's kitty.

Fast forward to 2009. Do you all know how many special draws have been allowed till this date?

Da Ma Cai
---------
27/1/2009
10/2/2009
10/3/2009
7/4//2009
28/4/2009
5/5/2009
26/5/2009
9/6/2009
7/7/2009
14/7/2009
11/8/2009
18/8/2009
8/9/2009

Magnum 4D
---------
27/1/2009
3/2/2009
31/3/2009
14/4/2009
12/5/2009
2/6/2009
30/6/2009
14/7/2009
28/7/2009
18/8/2009
1/9/2009

Sports Toto
-----------
6/1/2009
20/1/2009
27/1/2009
24/2/2009
3/3/2009
23/6/2009
14/7/2009
21/7/2009
4/8/2009
18/8//2009

Thats a total of 34 special draws todate.

At the conservative estimate of RM7.7 million taxes per draw based on the reply in the parliament, the Federal government, (with a 'premier' partner UMNO, which the PM claimed is an Islamic party) would have collected RM 261.8million 'halal' money.

One wonders how much of 'halal' money went actually for "pelbagai program/projek pembangunan yang berbentuk sukan, kebajikan, pendidikan, kesihatan dan kemasyarakatan"?

Or did any of this amount go to nurturing frogs?

Look at the trend of the draw dates.
See any concentration of dates, before the Perak state government was hijacked?

And is there any concentration of dates, co-inciding with the time where the Selangor state government ex-co members and their assistants were being 'invited' to co-operate with Federal government agencies' investigations? And the 'special' blog on TBH that surfaced around that time?

When all that failed, then the 'religious' angle came into the picture with
a. beer confiscation from 7-Eleven (which ironically is from the same business group that Sports Toto also belongs)
b. self-proclaimed edits about state suthorities being given powers to go after Muslims 'dealing' with alcoholic beverages
c. Cow-Head march
d. Disruption in the dialogue session called by the Selangor State government

Too many co-incidences. Very difficult to ignore.

Malayians need to remember these carefully when they want to cast their votes and select the people that they want as their MPs and ADUNs

PARAMESWARA

wong 11 September 2009 at 19:52  

the art of war is make less mistakes ....stay clam...seemed the exisitng bn never learned ...

yb,  12 September 2009 at 00:22  

Impressing an audience is not me, so you'll have to gather the voters information elsewhere.

Allright, let's get practical. Phishing for information is hard work. So, since everyone is so incapable of finding solutions then just leave it to the capable wings of the Royal Commission to uncover this mystery.

As always, for the umpteenth time.


yb

PM 12 September 2009 at 02:41  

sakmongkol is right on the postal votes. The army guys are in camp or home based and registered in that particular constituency. No politicians are allowed and this is the greatest set back. It can be manipulated..It is the norm that army guys voting in the camp are called postal voters.

Another the army guys have to insert their names, army number and rank on the voting slips just like in the last GE, indirectly forcing the army guys to vote for the ruling party.

Previously many army guys were registered in their home state but serving in another state. Their voting slips were sent to their respective camps for them to cross. These are collected by the despatch rider and sent to the post office for delivery. This policy has been changed many years back through a directive that all army personnel serving in the home base will vote in the constituency where the camp is located, the term postal voting retained.

Anonymous,  12 September 2009 at 05:44  

Dato',
Sorry to disagree with you on postal votes. Postal votes are chickens in a cage. Ever ready for BN's consumption. Ever heard of any postal votes from army camps that goes the opposition way? Postal votes from Election workers employed temporarily by EC do cast their votes for the opposition sometimes as there is no looming figure to oversea their voting. They can really excercise their freedom of choice.
So any reduction in votes fron the non pstal votes for BN can be read as a loss because to BN though they may win the election. To me the army postal votes don't count.

sakmongkol AK47 12 September 2009 at 06:01  

anon at 05:44.
no probelm to disgaree. we can disagree civilly. i explained the postal voting factually. in practice they are as you said them to be . before anyone can dismiss my knwdlege about undi pos- let me say that i too have personal knowledge because I stood as candidate in an area with army camp. i shall refrain the use of the term 'been there, done that'. you cant debate with this kind.

as to postal votes rejecting BN candidates, there were.
in 1999, voters from the airforce base Kuantan, rejected the BN candidate.
in 2008 GE, voters in Naval Base Kuantan, rejected the BN candidate who eventually lost his seat. meaning, they did what they did despite having an officer overseeing them.
i have touched on these in my article, unspinning the Pekan Formula.
thank you.

Suci Dalam Debu 12 September 2009 at 11:40  

Sir,

An ex-army friend told me that one day the box came and he was waiting to be called to cast his vote.

To his dismay, he found out later that the postal box was already on the way to town!

Wonder who voted on his behalf.

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