Bagan Pinang: Let’s not turn it into premature optimism

Before the UMNO cowboys ride into town and shoot off their mouths, I say to them, hold on to your horses boys. Don't do a Nazri Aziz- the mouth engaged in 5th gear, but the brain is in reverse. UMNO isn't out of the woods yet. You didn't win Bagan Pinang- Isa did. You know the UMNO machinery from outside Teluk Kemang was playing film extras. Team Isa was already in place since the previous ADUN died. You were given time to enjoy the sun soaked beaches of PD and enjoy your fruit cocktails at the hotel lobbies. Courtesy of Isa Samad.

You didn't win over the soldier boys- Isa and PM Najib did. You didn't have to lift a finger. The soldiers clearly said while they are in uniform, protocol dictates they vote for the ruling government. The brand UMNO is still nearly discredited. Isa's win is good for Bagan Pinang and Negeri Sembilan. This isn't what's good the goose is good for the gander. People probably want him to spite Mat Hassan. Think of that possibility. Hasan is generally disliked by the UMNO rank and file. Isa's victory can be seen as a censure for Hassan. That can only mean, UMNO is in for a long drawn out battle.

It's too early for UMNO to make Isa's victory as an excuse to rejoice. The jubilation that greeted Isa's victory may only be a huge sigh of relief that finally, UMNO got a win. It's not a definitive win. It may be significant but not yet conclusive. Isa's win may not be a complete approval and endorsement for UMNO. UMNO the brand is faulty and needs to be recalled.

UMNO's victory at Bagan Pinang, in my opinion was brought about by two factors:-

1. Najib, the brand
   
2. Isa the man.
   

Let's analyse Tan Sri Isa first. Everyone knows him in Negeri Sembilan and more so in PD. It's his Kampung. Sirusa is the kampong of his late wife. There's even a name of a street after the late wife. He was the MB for 23 years and had brought many things to PD. Visitors to PD can see the difference. Sure, you also see many abandoned projects, but there were brought about by the failure of private businesses. It had nothing to do with Isa.

As soon as the previous ADUN passed away, Isa got his UMNO machinery on alert. I was told that when Isa visited the deceased former ADUN, he and Mat Hassan bumped into each other. The current MB told Isa in no uncertain terms, that Isa will be contesting. Even the MB recognized at this juncture that the brand Isa can no longer be ignored if UMNO wants to win this seat.

How organized was the Teluk Kemang UMNO division? Each branch has a complete schedule of election program. The UMNO members who came from all over the country needed only to blend in with the locals. They had everything planned such that the UMNO members outside Negeri Sembilan needed only to adjust to the local agenda. Team Isa Samad was effectively in control and was able to direct the action so to speak. UMNO Teluk Kemang was prepared from the word go.

Hence, UMNO won not because the perception on UMNO has markedly improved. They still have outstanding issues to settle with the Malays at large. They still have many issues to settle with postal voters. They certainly have the gargantuan task of recapturing Malay loyalty. If there is a trait that is rare among the Malays, its loyalty. And loyalty must be earned by words and more importantly by conduct. In UMNO's case, it's the conduct.

As delegates come to KL today, please remember this. Out of the 2.38 million votes UMNO candidates got during the 12^th General Elections, probably only 2 million were Malay votes. That means 1.5 million UMNO members were disloyal. Remember also this. The number of Malay voters in the previous GE were 5 over million. That means over 3 million ordinary Malays rejected UMNO. That number was bigger than UMNO membership.

UMNO has to regain loyalty from its own members and from non UMNO Malays as well. UMNO must have done something to have caused that kind of massive desertion. Corruption? Alienation? Arrogance? Next, in order to recapture the loyalty of ALL the voters who supported UMNO before the 12^th GE, UMNO must form a government based on the principles of good governance which is essentially a conduct consideration.

Postal votes came mainly from the soldiers stationed in PD. I wouldn't make a big deal of postal votes in the sense of using it as a generalization to excitedly conclude that the voting preference among Malays is back to normal. By normal we mean, the usual unquestioning X-ing of the UMNO candidate's name at the ballot paper. If you are an UMNO candidate, victory is no longer a foregone conclusion. You are not an ex MB for 23 years. You don't have the war chest as big as Isa had. You don't go around admonishing people with the anti benediction that you will be punished in your after miserable earthly life for betraying, you don't look after the chickens from being trampled by cars, you don't have the power to build roads and drains. Your own area isn't Port Dickson or Bagan Pinang. You don't have a Mat Hassan to play scapegoat.

The votes from the soldiers are not a carte blanche. The victory at the army camps is a conditional win, beset with signals the UMNO leadership cannot afford to dismiss and ignore. The army vote is predominantly supportive of BN but it's an endorsement with many conditions. It is an endorsement laden with many expectations.

• The welfare issues. Those who served less than the minimum period which entitles pension (at least 21 years) need to be looked after.
  
• The salary scale of the rank and file. Those who have reached maximum ceiling with still many years to go. Say a soldier retires at 50. At 44 he has reached his maximum ceiling. He will go through 6 years of service without any pay rise.
  
• How to blend into civilian society. Despite transition training, it has proven to be insufficient.
  

The army votes which could have gone the other way were rescued only by the goodwill of the Najib Tun Razak's name. He is seen to have done the most for the army in terms of welfare. But that's trust built over years of service.

But not everyone is Najib Tun Razak and this is where the danger lies. The army votes are dependent on personality not on an enduring system or principle. If the personality isn't there and no system is put in place, in future, postal votes can be discounted.

Then there's the issue of assertive leadership. I am surprised to hear the name of DR Mahathir being invoked among solders here. Moving beyond the name, the essence to which they are attracted to is assertive leadership. PM Najib must recognize this signal. Maybe this is a reflection of the chivalrous nature of soldiers who are naturally inclined to courageous leadership quality.

The UMNO Leadership must show resolve, fortitude and assertiveness. There must be zero tolerance for weaknesses in any form. Zero tolerance for corruption and questionable politicians. Zero tolerance for vacillation, indeterminateness. The leadership must say clearly what it wants. For example, stern action must be taken against any threats to peace and racial harmony. The people behind the deaths of Beng Hock and Kugan must be brought o justice. Ordinary Malays are repulsed by efforts to link these deaths to an overall Malay culpability. The government is seen as weak if it shows ambivalence in handling these matters. If those who were involved in these heinous wrongdoings are Malays they must be dealt with as severely as any perpetrator of the wrongs must face. Otherwise, the entire Malay race is vicariously liable.

So think again. UMNO won in Bagan Pinang because of Isa Samad, the brand. UMN won in Bagan Pinang because of PM Najib's name. The victory was based on the clock builder not the clock. Can such a victory last?