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Sakmongkol ak 47
ariff.sabri@gmail.com
Saturday, 31 October 2009
Wednesday, 28 October 2009
When the Map is Unrolled, the Dagger is revealed.
Post Budget Blues
Tuesday, 27 October 2009
Principles of Budget Economics
Friday, 23 October 2009
Sedikit lagi soalan mengenai projek Tanjung Agas, Pekan
saya tanya soalan soalan macam ini sebab kita tidak hendak nasib yang menimpa projek MEC city beberapa tahun yang lalu, terkena juga Tanjung Agas. Dalam projek tersebut, tanah telah di jual pada kadar premium yang amat rendah, tapi apabila sudah di 'make up' sedikit di jual pada harga yang melambung tinggi. Perancangan untuk membina suatu bandar elektronik tidak menjadi tapi tanah milik negeri Pahang sudah terlepas. Ketika wawasan mengenai bandar eletronik ini di hebahkan, pujian dan harapan mengenai nya amat menggunung. Malang nya, projek tersebut mengalami pengakhiran yang menyedihkan.
Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Pahang: not a PKFZ please.
Monday, 19 October 2009
Transforming UMNO
Friday, 16 October 2009
Re-sizing Anwar Ibrahim
Wednesday, 14 October 2009
Bagan Pinang: Let’s not turn it into premature optimism
Before the UMNO cowboys ride into town and shoot off their mouths, I say to them, hold on to your horses boys. Don't do a Nazri Aziz- the mouth engaged in 5th gear, but the brain is in reverse. UMNO isn't out of the woods yet. You didn't win Bagan Pinang- Isa did. You know the UMNO machinery from outside Teluk Kemang was playing film extras. Team Isa was already in place since the previous ADUN died. You were given time to enjoy the sun soaked beaches of PD and enjoy your fruit cocktails at the hotel lobbies. Courtesy of Isa Samad. You didn't win over the soldier boys- Isa and PM Najib did. You didn't have to lift a finger. The soldiers clearly said while they are in uniform, protocol dictates they vote for the ruling government. The brand UMNO is still nearly discredited. Isa's win is good for Bagan Pinang and Negeri Sembilan. This isn't what's good the goose is good for the gander. People probably want him to spite Mat Hassan. Think of that possibility. Hasan is generally disliked by the UMNO rank and file. Isa's victory can be seen as a censure for Hassan. That can only mean, UMNO is in for a long drawn out battle. It's too early for UMNO to make Isa's victory as an excuse to rejoice. The jubilation that greeted Isa's victory may only be a huge sigh of relief that finally, UMNO got a win. It's not a definitive win. It may be significant but not yet conclusive. Isa's win may not be a complete approval and endorsement for UMNO. UMNO the brand is faulty and needs to be recalled. UMNO's victory at Bagan Pinang, in my opinion was brought about by two factors:- Let's analyse Tan Sri Isa first. Everyone knows him in Negeri Sembilan and more so in PD. It's his Kampung. Sirusa is the kampong of his late wife. There's even a name of a street after the late wife. He was the MB for 23 years and had brought many things to PD. Visitors to PD can see the difference. Sure, you also see many abandoned projects, but there were brought about by the failure of private businesses. It had nothing to do with Isa. As soon as the previous ADUN passed away, Isa got his UMNO machinery on alert. I was told that when Isa visited the deceased former ADUN, he and Mat Hassan bumped into each other. The current MB told Isa in no uncertain terms, that Isa will be contesting. Even the MB recognized at this juncture that the brand Isa can no longer be ignored if UMNO wants to win this seat. How organized was the Teluk Kemang UMNO division? Each branch has a complete schedule of election program. The UMNO members who came from all over the country needed only to blend in with the locals. They had everything planned such that the UMNO members outside Negeri Sembilan needed only to adjust to the local agenda. Team Isa Samad was effectively in control and was able to direct the action so to speak. UMNO Teluk Kemang was prepared from the word go. Hence, UMNO won not because the perception on UMNO has markedly improved. They still have outstanding issues to settle with the Malays at large. They still have many issues to settle with postal voters. They certainly have the gargantuan task of recapturing Malay loyalty. If there is a trait that is rare among the Malays, its loyalty. And loyalty must be earned by words and more importantly by conduct. In UMNO's case, it's the conduct. As delegates come to KL today, please remember this. Out of the 2.38 million votes UMNO candidates got during the 12th General Elections, probably only 2 million were Malay votes. That means 1.5 million UMNO members were disloyal. Remember also this. The number of Malay voters in the previous GE were 5 over million. That means over 3 million ordinary Malays rejected UMNO. That number was bigger than UMNO membership. UMNO has to regain loyalty from its own members and from non UMNO Malays as well. UMNO must have done something to have caused that kind of massive desertion. Corruption? Alienation? Arrogance? Next, in order to recapture the loyalty of ALL the voters who supported UMNO before the 12th GE, UMNO must form a government based on the principles of good governance which is essentially a conduct consideration. Postal votes came mainly from the soldiers stationed in PD. I wouldn't make a big deal of postal votes in the sense of using it as a generalization to excitedly conclude that the voting preference among Malays is back to normal. By normal we mean, the usual unquestioning X-ing of the UMNO candidate's name at the ballot paper. If you are an UMNO candidate, victory is no longer a foregone conclusion. You are not an ex MB for 23 years. You don't have the war chest as big as Isa had. You don't go around admonishing people with the anti benediction that you will be punished in your after miserable earthly life for betraying, you don't look after the chickens from being trampled by cars, you don't have the power to build roads and drains. Your own area isn't Port Dickson or Bagan Pinang. You don't have a Mat Hassan to play scapegoat. The votes from the soldiers are not a carte blanche. The victory at the army camps is a conditional win, beset with signals the UMNO leadership cannot afford to dismiss and ignore. The army vote is predominantly supportive of BN but it's an endorsement with many conditions. It is an endorsement laden with many expectations. The army votes which could have gone the other way were rescued only by the goodwill of the Najib Tun Razak's name. He is seen to have done the most for the army in terms of welfare. But that's trust built over years of service. But not everyone is Najib Tun Razak and this is where the danger lies. The army votes are dependent on personality not on an enduring system or principle. If the personality isn't there and no system is put in place, in future, postal votes can be discounted. Then there's the issue of assertive leadership. I am surprised to hear the name of DR Mahathir being invoked among solders here. Moving beyond the name, the essence to which they are attracted to is assertive leadership. PM Najib must recognize this signal. Maybe this is a reflection of the chivalrous nature of soldiers who are naturally inclined to courageous leadership quality. The UMNO Leadership must show resolve, fortitude and assertiveness. There must be zero tolerance for weaknesses in any form. Zero tolerance for corruption and questionable politicians. Zero tolerance for vacillation, indeterminateness. The leadership must say clearly what it wants. For example, stern action must be taken against any threats to peace and racial harmony. The people behind the deaths of Beng Hock and Kugan must be brought o justice. Ordinary Malays are repulsed by efforts to link these deaths to an overall Malay culpability. The government is seen as weak if it shows ambivalence in handling these matters. If those who were involved in these heinous wrongdoings are Malays they must be dealt with as severely as any perpetrator of the wrongs must face. Otherwise, the entire Malay race is vicariously liable. So think again. UMNO won in Bagan Pinang because of Isa Samad, the brand. UMN won in Bagan Pinang because of PM Najib's name. The victory was based on the clock builder not the clock. Can such a victory last?
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
Bagan Pinang: cynical realism sets in
Sunday, 11 October 2009
Hooray! Isa Samad wins Bagan Pinang
Isa Samad has won Bagan Pinang with a majority of over 5000 votes. That is certainly overwhelming. I will try to offer some reasons why Isa won. However, that will have to wait, because I have something to let out my chest first. On 10th of September, Sakmongkol Ak 47 wrote this:- It is therefore very likely that Isa Samad will be the candidate. Will UMNO be bothered by the expected sniggering and derision which will follow should Isa be selected? Who cares if that helps UMNO win. Let's look at the numbers. There are about 14,000 voters in this Bagan Pinang DUN. 30% are non Malay voters. That's about 4200 people. The BN will probably get 30% of these voters which is about 1300 votes. We now turn to the 70% voter who are Malays and that's around 9800 people. 5000 of them are voters from army camp- the postal voters. BN will likely get 95%. 4700-4800 postal votes for BN. That leaves another 5000 open voters. Let's say BN gets another 3000 votes. The total votes for BN will be around 9000-9500 votes. The opposition will get around 4-5 thousand votes. This time around the BN candidate will win with a majority close to 4000 votes. Who can get 4000 vote majority for UMNO/BN? ISA SAMAD can. He is a former MB. That sets him apart from his opponent. He has a record of serving and spreading goodwill during his term as MB. I am sure his he has his network here and many relatives. BN/UMNO can bag this one with a larger majority if Isa is chosen. The full essay can be read here. When I wrote many more articles on Bagan Pinang, I encountered a lot of ridicule and derision. Some commentators even congratulated PM Najib for not retaining me as ADUN for my area. Many wrote in saying I am a closet racist. Much more is at stake in the Bagan Pinang election. It's also about being UMNO and Malay. We needed a victory here to remind what it means to be UMNO and being Malay. It's about yanking off the millstone of collective guilt of being Malay. We can now talk about the hypocrisy, the false promises by the other side, without being guilty at being accused of having committed all the bad things. We have shed off that guilt by being punished mercilessly at the 12th General elections. But, you see, unlike those PR people, we can now move on upon a new slate. Yes, I am talking to those outside UMNO who said a lot of nasty things. The sunwaygopals who live in their dreamtime, the coloured bottles of this world, the spineless anonymous commentators who said a lot of abusive things, yes I am gloating tonight. I have done nothing though other than interpreting the actual pulse of the people. The soldiers whom I have met who were candid and unguarded in their remarks, the unknown voters in the several Kampungs I met up. You on the other hand make up wonderful and fancy theories here and there, and relished the chance to abuse my assessments. Wrong strategy guys- it is not at me that you direct your reasoning and arguments; it should be the voters that you needed to convince. We got you this time.
Bagan Pinang. Coretan orang kampung.
Isu kepimpinan: perspektif anggota tentera
Encik Mahat I asked, what kind of leadership does the military want? Tentera nak kepimpinan macam Dr Mahathir. Kepada kami, Dr Mahathir pemimpin Melayu sejati. Masa dia jadi PM, kita tak pernah dengar perkara pelik pelik berlaku. Orang mempertikai dasar bahasa, kecamuk dalam hal ehwal agama, HINDRAF punya isiu la, ugutan dari parti komponen la. Saya dengar dulu, sesiapa yang di panggil oleh Dr Mahathir kalau tak bersedia akan terketar ketar. Pernah saya dengar ada Ketua Polis Negara- pergi briefing Dr Mahathir. Entah apa orang tua tu cross examine, KPN tu bila keluar sampai terantuk pintu. Kami semua ketawa mendengar cerita ini. Mungkin ini hanya cerita dongeng. Ye, kelebihan Dr Mahathir ialah kehebatan intelek nya. DR Mahathir is continuously learning and re inventing himself. Che Mahat tahu, kawan saya yang dulu berkerja dengan MATRADE cerita pada saya, kesukaan Dr Mahathir bila lawat luar Negara ialah bersiar siar dengan membawa kamera. Apa yang menarik perhatian dan di anggap baik untuk di ikuti akan di ambil gambar. Jenis pokok, binaan jambatan. Jambatan di Putrajaya banyak ikut stail jambatan di Eropah. Dan bila Dr Mahathir berminat dengan sesuatu perkara dia akan membaca literature mengenai perkara tersebut. Saya pernah dengar satu masa Dr Mahathir sangat berminat dengan vases atau tembikar purba China. Sekembali ke tanah air, Dr Mahathir menyuruh pegawai nya mencari semua buku mengenai tembikar China. Dan Che Mahat tahu- Dr Mahathir ni dia terlatih sebagai doctor perubatan. Tapi ilmu dia mengenai ekonomi pratikal amat mengagumkan. Kalah professional economists. Kita kagum dengan cara dia urus krisis kewangan dulu. Tapi biasa lah Che Mahat- kadang kadang saya dalam blog pun ketuk Dr Mahathir juga. Para penyokong dia akan melompat dan balun saya. Tapi mereka ni banyak yang hipokrit sebab bila Tun Mahathir kena hentam oleh Nazri Aziz, semua penyokong Dr Mahathir membisu seribu bahasa, lidah kelu tak berkata kata. Itulah harapan kami kepada pimpinan UMNO. Kita hendak pimpinan UMNO lebih tegas menangani pelbagai isiu negara. Ada tak orang PAS datang kempen dengan tentara, tanya saya. Tak ada. Orang PAS umum nya menjauhi kami yang beruniform. Orang BN ada kempen dengan kami bila berjumpa. Anggota tentera ada pergi dengar ceramah PAS? Ada… tapi kami tak berapa senang. Bila penceramah yang melaungkan nilai Islam caci sana sini, dedahkan aib sana sini. Kata nak perjuangkan nilai Islam, tapi perbuatan kurang Islam. Bagaimana dengan Anwar Ibrahim? Masa saya kat Kuching dulu, tentera rata rata simpati dengan Anwar Ibrahim. Di pukul, mata lebam dan sebagai nya. Tapi hari ini, perasaan kami hambar. Bila Anwar Ibrahim begitu gigih cuba menangguhkan perbicaraan nya, kami syak ada sesuatu yang tak kena. Saya rasa Anwar Ibrahim hilang banyak kredibiliti bila melakukan demikian. Poskrip. Ketegasan adalah ciri kepimpinan yang amat perlu ada pada UMNO hari ini. Sebagai contoh, saya ada menulis mengenai sikap pimpinan UMNO terhadap MCA. Sikap UMNO tak boleh ambivalent. Saya pernah menulis, the WHOLE of BN cannot be strong if its PARTS are weakened. As the senior partner, it must send the correct signals that UMNO supports MCA leadership that is striving to define new values- trust, integrity and optimism. We can't have ambivalence. The UMNO leadership must show it supports an MCA leadership that is committed to encode these elements into an MCA culture.