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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Saturday, 17 January 2009

Ramalang dari KT

I just received one report from an invisible man from ground zero. His report is self explanatory.

Jumlah pengundi di kuala Terengganu sekitar 80 ribu. Saya jangka hanya 70% yang akan keluar mengundi. Maka bilangan pengundi ialah sekitar 56,000.

daripada 56,000, 50 ribu terdiri orang Melayu dan 6 ribu bukan melayu.

Bagaimana pecahan undian yang boleh kita ramal dari mereka?

Agihan undi Melayu.

Daripada lapuran yang saya terima, 53% dari pengundi Melayu berpihak kepada PAS iautu seramai 26,500. Ertinya, dari jumlah pengundi Melayu, UMNO akan dapat sebanyak 23,500 ribu.

Agihan undi bukan Melayu.

Agihan pengudni bukan melayu adalah pada kadar 55:45 antara PAS dengan UMNO. Ini akan memberi PAS seramai 3300 manakala UMNO akan mendapat sebanyak 2700 undian.

Keputusan akhir mungkin begini: PAS = 29,800 manakala UMNO mendapat 26,200. Ini akan memberi PAS kemenangan dengan majority 3600.

We shall wait for the actual results and see how this invisible man’s analysis compares to Lim Kit Siang’s 7000 majority.

3 comments:

Zawi 17 January 2009 at 21:12  

Dato',
Nampak gayanya makin jauh Pas leading tu. Malaysiakini buat pengumuman Pas menag dengan 1600 undi.
UMNO must reinvent to be relevant.

sakmongkol AK47 17 January 2009 at 21:19  

bro zawi,

saya rasa lapuran dari invisible man ni lagi baik dari lim kit siang. besar kemungkinan menuju ke majoriti menghampiri 3000

Anonymous,  17 January 2009 at 23:23  

Hi Dato' Sak,
Your man in KT was quite accurate if you were to scale up the total votes to reflec the number of votes cast.

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