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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Monday, 5 November 2012

GE13: Targeting Perak



Where to attack in Perak.
Many of us like to know where we can hit BN where it hurts. This is the first of several articles, where I have identified the places I think are worthwhile to mount our attacks.
Let us start with Perak. If we focus our attacks on Larut, Parit, Tapah, Pasir Salak, Bagan Datok and Tanjung Malim, we will leave only two seats for BN to win in Perak. That will be Gerik and Lenggong. In an earlier article, I said, BN will win only 7 parliamentary seats. Let us make that 2.
The more important strategy is to take the federal seats to allow PR to form the federal government. States that do not fall under PR will run to form state coalition governments.  Najib says melancholically in Penang that he does not mind other people taking over his PMship- but he fears under Pakatan, the country will go bankrupt. Come on Mr PM, it is not like you are the only person who can do the job of PM and it is not that only Barisan can run the country. You have spent more than you earned for the last 16 years since 1998.  I have said it before and now will repeat- if Najib can become PM, so can everyone else.
Table 1: seats that can be won/lost by PR and BN
No
Parliament
Party
Party
Incumbent
Majority
M
%
NM
%
1
Lenggong
BN





2
Gerik
BN

Tan Lian Hoe
5000+
73
27
3
Larut
BN

Hamzah Zainudin
1900
87
12
4
Parit Buntar

PR




5
Bagan Serai

PR




6
Bkt Gantang

PR




7
Taiping

PR




8
Padang Rengas

PR




9
Sungai Siput

PR




10
Tambun
BN

Husni Hanazliah
5000+
64
36
11
Ipoh Timur

PR




12
Ipoh Barat

PR




13
Batu Gajah

PR




14
Beruas

PR




15
Parit
BN

Nizar Zakaria
2800
93
7
16
Kuala Kangsar

PR




17
Gopeng

PR




18
Tapah
BN

M Saravanan
3000+
47
53
19
Pasir Salak
BN

Tajudin Rahman
2688
79
21
20
Lumut

PR




21
Bagan Datok
BN

Zahid Hamidi
2900
57
43
22
Telok Intan

PR




23
Tanjung Malim
BN

Ong Ka Chuan
5422
51
49
24
Kampar

PR













BN has got only 2 sure parliamentary seats. I have shaded the areas where if we mount concerted and continuous efforts they will go the Pakatan way. Tan Lian Hoe in Gerik survives solely by the grace of the Malay voters. Now is the chance for the Gerik Malays to reject any representative of MCA which has shown its true color of being morbid anti-Islam and anti-Malay.
It is time to kick out Saravanan from Tapah. The 20% Malaysian Indians are better off being looked after by Pakatan than MIC. Why should Perakians retain Ong Ka Chuan any longer? In Kuala Kangsar, that windbag Rafidah Aziz won with a majority of about 1400 votes. We must allow her to enjoy flying with Air Asia by retiring her. In any case, she has served her purpose in political life. It is not that, without her, other people are not capable of running the Trade Ministry.
But, let us not be greedy. Let us leave Gerik and  Lenggong for BN.

25 comments:

monsterball 5 November 2012 at 04:02  

The target is not only Perak...but all the 9 States in the West... Sabah and Sarawak in the East.
As for Perak...it fell to PR and Najib bought few frogs...with the help of Perak Sultan to claim it as a victory for BN.
Lets see what the voters will be doing at 13th GE.
Like SAK...I am optimistic that PR will win big and control.
As days passes by.....Umno B and Najib are not that strong.
Najib is hated by most voters ..except innocent children he can bullshit.
And now Nazri is exposed on corruptions by Rafizi...where he responded
"Who is Rafizi that I need to respond? I am like Hollywood film star..very popular."
Cow shits seems to be contagious...spreading all over BN.

bruno,  5 November 2012 at 07:19  

Dato,only two seats for Umno/BN in Perak.Then the betting odds for PR-BN will be 1-2.Lets go on line and check the UK based Labroke's odds to confirm the trend.Lets make some money laughing all the way to the bank and at the same time enjoy the booting of Umno/BN from Putrajaya.

Paradigmshift,  5 November 2012 at 10:07  

Dear SAK,
For Tapah parliamentary seat you will have to find ways and means on how to neutralise the Orang Asli and postal votes of the armed forces personnel.You do that and Tapah will be won, the same goes for the neighbouring Cameron Highland parliamnetary seat, now held by Devamoney.I just wonder what Saravanan and Devamoney have been doing in Tapah and cameron Highlands. The road from Tapah to Ringlet is like a hell road with a lot of potholes just covered with patches of tar after which a month later they will reappear.And Cameron Higlands is overexploited to an extent which may affect its attraction as a cool tourist attraction.

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 10:18  

Dato' and fellow bloggers

I think you analysis borders on over confidence. BN is no pushover, although Perakians will ensure their downfall in the coming 13th GE. I heard that Chua Soi Lek was trying to dislodge Ong Ka Chuan from Tg Malim as it is always been a safe seat for BN. Perhaps he might even think of Kampar. Gerik and Lenggong have always been BN strong forts. So is Kuala Kangsar. But then of course, BN still need 'winnable candidates'. Perhaps it's time to turn the tide against them.

Salam.
Observer

matsamankati 5 November 2012 at 11:01  

Sir,

Saya andaikan pengundi yang memilih PR untuk kerusi Parlimen akan juga mengundi PR untuk DUN.

Kalau ini berlaku, maka PR boleh menang 55-4 untuk DUN.

Tak over-confident sangat ka?

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 11:18  

Dato I am from Teluk Intan, and wish to inform that BN under Mah Siew Keong has a great chance of retaking this parliamentary seat from DAP.

Current MP, Mano is now not a popular choice for many of the people here, but from what I understand DAP insist on Mano as the candidate. If DAP refuses to take heed of the people's view, then I am quite sure DAP will lose this seat.

There is a better choice which the people would like to see contest this seat and i believe the leadership in DAP should know who he is.

Lastly, i really hope your prediction comes true, for the sake of this beloved country of ours.We the rakyat are more worried than najib, because another term for BN, this country would have reach the point of no return, i.e we will be doomed.

Bogey 5 November 2012 at 12:21  

Will you be contesting? and where?

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 13:11  

Dato

It is one thing to have a strategy to kick out BN. It is another to brag about it to your opposition.

If you are seriously with the DAP and are serious about helping Pakatan throw out BN, you wouldn't be showing all your cards now. That will be the single biggest act of stupidity in politics.

For now, I will treat your analysis as an intentional smokescreen by you ... just like Sun Tze propounded his various tactics to win over the opposition.

OneMalaysian,  5 November 2012 at 13:40  

Dear Sakmongkol

In the past few months, I have been consumed by one dominant thought: how PR can win the rural vote. The urban vote is in the pocket; the semi-rural vote is more than a fighting chance. But the rural vote is still stubbornly with BN.

Never under-estimate the enemy; UMNO is a wily foe. It has been in this game a long time, and it can fight. In the past 25-30 years, UMNO has cultivated the rural voters like mushrooms: keeping them in the dark and feeding them bullshit. The Utusan, TV 1, 2 and 3 have been working to feed distorted truths and twisted facts to these folks. Add to this the intoxicating smell of BR1M and other such irresistible sweetmeats; it would be hard to prise the BN votes out of their gnarled fingers.

UMNO offers money and empty promises of a better future. Against this PAS offers God’s blessings. It’s a difficult choice. UMNO’s offering is hard to ignore when they have so little to go by.

We like to be optimistic, but there are many rural mountains to climb. It would be interesting to hear some ceramah feedback on rural support for PR, not in PR strongholds but in UMNO strongholds. Forecast numbers can seem so neat, certain and reassuring especially when they support our hopes. But I would rather hear about the cheers, jeers, fears and questions of the folks who come to PR ceramahs in UMNO areas.

bat8 5 November 2012 at 13:49  

Mat saman kati,

Salam buat sahabat lama dari zaman screenshot jeff ooi lagi.

Input sahabat sebagai orang on the ground di Perak amat-amat dihargai. Dapat kiranya sahabat membuat analisis berdasarkan tulisan Sak kali ini dalam mediaperak untuk manafaat kita semua.

Salam ukhuwah

bat8

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 14:25  

Ahhhh... there's a light at the end of the tunnel after all. You lifted my spirit Dato.

aniktnf 5 November 2012 at 16:22  

I AM WAITING FOR THAT BITCH FROM JELAPANG. I HOPE BARISAN NAJIS WOULD ALLOW HER TO CONTEST AGAIN ANYWHERE IN PERAK, NOT ONLY JELAPANG. REVENGE IS SWEET!

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 17:22  

Dato

Just a gentle correction.

Tan Lian Hoe is from Gelakkan

monsterball 5 November 2012 at 17:26  

Perak will fall like a ripe apple for PR to pick it up.
Perak folks are smart voters. They cannot be easily fooled.
Umno B is governing Perak with no class.
They must use money to buy frogs.
Politicians leaving at their own will are not frogs.They can choose what they think the voters want them to do.
For that...dozens are leaving BN.
ost significantly are Parliamentarians and influential individuals leaving BN...in Sarawak and Sabah.
Today is USA election day.
Mahathir said Obama is a lousy President.
He thinks he is the best.

Krishna 5 November 2012 at 17:48  

Dato, I love the generosity of leaving two seats for BN. Not like BN. Makan semua!

Jong 5 November 2012 at 19:01  

Dear Sak,

A correction here - Gerik MP Tan Lian Hoe is from Gerakan not MCA.

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 19:52  

Dear Dato,
I hope to see a contest between CSL and LKS. Please encourage to go after CSL. This time there is no safe place for BN.The Malays today are very smart as compare to yester years. MCA cannot depent on the Malay votes anymore.

Anonymous,  5 November 2012 at 20:30  

paradigmshift
betul lah.
jalan tapah ke cameron higlhands teruk betui.tampal sana sini.jadi makin teruk.
i tak kan vote lagi BN.

Anonymous,  6 November 2012 at 12:04  

I don't want the 3 N goons rule my homestate.Will never trust those buggers.I might have second thoughts if it was you Tok.
I 've live through that one year of their administration...bloody arrogant kniving bunch period

Anonymous,  6 November 2012 at 12:07  

Nga, Ngeh Nizar. ?....these goons will never rule Perak

TST 6 November 2012 at 15:27  

Next PRU13., Mahathir shall know that Perak malays tidak mudah lupa

Ezzad Emir 6 November 2012 at 19:15  

Salam SAK,

Gentle correction. Padang Rengas is with BN not PR. And that gave another distorted view.

sakmongkol AK47 6 November 2012 at 19:20  

ezzad amir,

my table says seats that can be won/lost. its not a table of current standing. anyway, tq for that reminder.

sakmongkol AK47 6 November 2012 at 19:20  

ezzad amir,

my table says seats that can be won/lost. its not a table of current standing. anyway, tq for that reminder.

Anonymous,  11 November 2012 at 22:06  

THE STATE IS IN TROUBLE
DEEP SHIT WILL RISE SOON
THE LONGER THEY WAIT THE MORE SHIT WILL HIT THE FANS
BE READY FOR CHANGE
PERAK IS COMING BACK
TO THE RIGHTFUL LEADERS
LEADERS WHO ARE COLOR BLIND AND BRAVE
THAT IS WHAT THE RAKYAT WANTS!

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