Mukhriz, Khairy or KT- its your choice

Sakmongkol hopes many people are aware of the Bradley effect. The blogger Akramsyah Sanusi, has written on this matter. He uses this phenomenon to caution Mukhriz Mahathir against being overconfident in the current contest of Ketua Pemuda UMNO.

The Bradley effect is also known as the Wilder effect. The Bradley effect is used to explain the discrepancy between what opinion polls say and the actual outcome in an election.

Suppose a white candidate contests against a black candidate. Opinion polls say, the black candidate is favoured. But come election time, the voters actually choose the white candidate over the black.

This was what actually took place in the gubernatorial race between a black and a white candidate.

In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white. Tom Bradley is a Black American.

Most polls in the final days before the election showed Bradley with a significant lead. Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner. Indeed early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, despite winning a majority of the votes cast on election day, Bradley narrowly lost the overall race once absentee ballots were included

Americans are very sensitive when it comes to issues of racism. White Americans will try hard as possible to hide their KKK deep-seated prejudices. So when asked, they will say they are indifferent as to race or even don’t mind a black candidate. You know the Americans are generally pretentious people; they like to be held in high esteem by others. In private of course they will denigrate the poor black man and when voting day comes, they will vote for the white candidate, their comfort candidate.

Sakmongkol prefers to apply two other theories to caution Mukhriz Mahathir.

In England, a similar phenomenon as the Bradley effect is known as the Shy Tory effect. When openly interviewed, respondents will say they are very displeased about the conservative party( the Tories). When polls were conducted based on the responses of interviewees, the conservatives trailed behind the Labour party. When voting day comes, the conservatives actually surpassed the labour party.

The German political scientist, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann propounded a theory known in political science and mass communication as the spiral of silence. The theory asserts that a person is less likely to voice an opinion on a topic if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority.

In the present contest for the post of Ketua Pemuda, delegates may be shy of declaring their true intentions. The universal politically correct stance is to accept Mukhriz Mahathir. He was the underdog. Pleasant and respectful. He is the son of the great Tun Mahathir. He is seen as more acceptable by Dato Seri Najib. To not nominate him may place one in the minority group.

On the other hand, KJ is seen as brash and arrogant. He is the ogre with the mean money machine. The UMNO delegates may actually prefer him but withhold their true preference for fear of being labeled as money pinchers.

The other candidate, Khir Toyo is also seen in the same light as KJ. But perhaps with less intense revulsion. Khir too has deep pockets and in a world where everyone has a price, outward preference can be easily extinguished with the flame- torch of money.

So sakmongkol hopes the following will not happen:-

Bulan 11 berani berubah

Bulan 12 mula berubah

Bulan 1 tengah berubah

Bulan 2 hampir berubah

Bulan 3 sudah berubah.