The Kangaroo Panel, UMNO 66 and the demise of UMNO

On the 31^st of August, I wrote an article- the kangaroo panel and Tun Mahathir.

Today, the 2^nd of September I wrote about the UMNO 66.

The first is about the secretive bar council setting up a panel of eminent persons. I asked why was it so secretive that hardly anyone knows about it. As far as I know, only Mathias Chang wrote about it slightly earlier than I did. Now, the Tun himself has to come out to defend himself.

Where have all the UMNO leaders that prostrated before Tun’s feet not too long ago, gone to? Those who sumpah will go to the end of the world with Tun? Where is Najib whom Tun saved from obscurity many times?

You know, that is why I say UMNO is doomed. It does not have anyone with an innate sense of pride to defend its former president and former prime minister of 22 years. I have also written that UMNO has the culture of treating its former leaders as pariahs.

Now, if this culture and tradition are passed on to the next generation, what do we have? We have a generation of ingrates and cowards without an inkling how UMNO evolved. When you combine the two characteristics, what can UMNO accomplish?

If Anwar then comes into power, then that possibility becomes a reality because UMNO does not have the amour propre to stand and be counted.

Now tell me, why is this kind of UMNO worthwhile to defend?

The UMNO 66 refers to the number of UMNO MPs in peninsular Malaysia. Now as we know, UMNO leaders are never known for their steely resolve. I am inclined to believe, that Anwar, the greatest snake oil salesman in the world, will be able to persuade many of them to cross over.

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murder most foul! our English Language

Please click the above to read it.

I have written a posting in Bahasa Malaysia regarding the above. I said this is another result of our misplaced priority in our education policy. Our xenophobic fear of learning the English Language finally translates itself into the butchering of the language.

One thing that we are proud of is the standard of the English language in this country. Both spoken and written. Despite the vehement objections of Malay-language-first nationalists, the standard of the English language is still all right.

Where it has really declined is perhaps among Malay students. That is most unfortunate. It denies them wider marketability. They lose out when searching for jobs in the private sector.

But that is alright yes? The government has many GLCs. It controls the economy. Perhaps, as a last resort they can join Universiti Tun Hussein Onn. Or they can always find employment among the 1.4 million civil servants in this country.

But before we rush headlong denouncing this as another effect of our education system, think again. The standard of the English language appears alright among urban Malays. They speak and write good English. Among the non Malays, the standard of written and spoken English is still good.

Therefore perhaps, the poor English exemplified by the poorly written advertorial, actually points to the effects of social economic disparities. The writer may in fact come from rural Malaysia. It only serves to show the socio economic disparities have taken its toll. In this particular case, in the command of English Language of the poor and unfortunate soul who authored the advertorial.

And perhaps rather than rushing to accuse the government of messing up the education system, we could do better by accepting the poor English of the poor soul may be the result of his/her own personal slothfulness. There are students from rural areas with good command of English.

Other than the above, it simply indicates to me, poor work ethics at the place she is working. I am pretty sure, if one were to go to his/her workplace, a plaque bearing an ISO certification is proudly displayed for all to see. It is a common sight in government offices- to show the ISO certification that in turn shows their hunger for recognition.

He or she must have a supervisor. Perhaps there is an editor at the paper. Hmm. Don’t tell me, the editor’s standard of English, is just like the author of the advertorial?

But then Lim Kit Siang would not want to waste any chance he can get to wallop the government, would he?

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UMNO's 66

UMNO has 66 MPs in the peninsular. The 66 will be a very important factor in the survival of UMNO.

Will Anwar form the federal government? He must. If he doesn’t he will be history.

If he does indeed form one, it will be for one term. Unless during that interlude, more Malay MPs join him and make PKR a Malay dominated party.

Whether Anwar likes it or not, he has to play politics against the real world. And the real world is, this country is 65 percent Malay. Malays need that comforting thought that this country is still a Malay country.

And during that one term, the PKR MPs will behave like saints. No corruption. No abuses of power. Necessary to convince people that they are indeed better than the UMNO and BN goons.

But it wont last long. Once the honeymoon fizzles out, PKR will turn into the very people they detest.

That is one scenario why PKR, if it forms the government will be a one term PKR government.

The other reason why it will be a one term government is because of demographics. UMNO has only 66 MPs in peninsular Malaysia. 13 comes from Sabah making a total of 79 UMNO MPs in parliament.

PKR has 43 Malay MP and 39 non Malay MPs. How will Anwar maintain PKR to be a Malay dominated party?

He needs 30 MPs to cross over to form the government but he needs to retain the Malay flavour of PKR. Otherwise, Anwar suffers the ignominy of becoming PM but his party is non Malay dominated. If the 30 MPs to cross over are non Malays, then PKR will have 69 non Malay against 43 PKR Malay. No go.

Lets us say that 30 non Malay MPS cross over, Anwar will need to rope in 30 Malay MPs to make it a 73:69 balance. Even more pertinent, the 30 must be UMNO MPs. That would be an ideal minimum number. Assume that the 30 who cross over are from east Malaysia.

I believe Anwar is in the market for 30 UMNO MPs. I am intrigued by the remark made by Dato Sallehudin Hashim( the PKR Secgen- does he still spot his pony tail?) that great political changes do not come from zero sum equations. Can it mean, that UMNO MPs cross over because they are convinced their decision is a win-win situation?

Its impossible for all the 13 UMNO MPs from Sabah to jump over. Lets assume that from the 13, Anwar manages to convince 8 to cross over. Sabah is left with 5 UMNO MPs. He still needs 22 Malay MPs. From UMNO in the peninsular.

Can he then go marketing for 22 Malay MPs from peninsular UMNO’s 66?

He can by:-

1. Bribing them RM 20 million each
2. By appointing them to ministerial posts.

Just suppose this happens. UMNO with 44 members in Peninsular, 5 UMNO MPs in Sabah and 15 MCA, 3 MIC and 2 GERAKAN. UMNO has 44 against 20 non Malay BN members who are by now, getting worked up. They have a new found aggression and will no longer play second fiddle to UMNO MPs. UMNO will handle the towkays and the chettiars gingerly now.

Assuming that the 30 buggers who jump over( buggers because they are willing to be sondoled by Anwar), what’s left of the BN is a composition of UMNO= 49, MCA/MIC/GERAKAN=20, and 11 seats from Sabah and Sarawak.

The final composition will be PKR= 142 vs. BN=80 seats. And PKR will have 73 Malay MPs and 69 non Malay MPs.

Anwar will then control the federal government and with that controls the flow of development money to the states that PKR has not yet controlled.

What will the now emaciated and emasculated UMNO do? Indeed what can it do?

Pak Lah and Dato Najib would have lost all credibility and trust to lead UMNO. UMNO succumbed under their stewardship. UMNO members will clamour for a strong leadership to lead UMNO. More important, they will insist on a leader with relatively unblemished record.

Najib will be history .Permatang Pauh has proven, that Dato Najib cant face off Anwar. If he cant while in power, he wont be able to lead UMNO when out of power. He is a liability to UMNO and must be sidelined if UMNO is to survive. Pak Lah has no other choice but letting the UMNO members decide on the leadership they think best to save UMNO.

And its not because I like or don’t like Tengku Razaleigh- but he remains the best hope yet for UMNO.

Tengku Razaleigh can capitalise on these things:-

1. The disillusionment of UMNO members towards the Dollah-Najib Leadership
2. The sense of deprivation and hopelessness Malays now feel.
3. a new reason for Malays to unite- to wrest control from Pakatan.

For these reasons, I think Pakatan Government will be a one term government. The hold by which Anwar has over the 73 Malay MPs is a fragile one. Its even short than the 79 that UMNO now has. With 79 seats, UMNO is vulnerable, what can PKR with 73( 30 former UMNO MPs) do?

What will Tengku Razaleigh do to UMNO? He must consider forming a presidential council of advisers headed by Tun Mahathir. If he wishes to unite the Malays.

As they say in conclusion- Wallahu’alam.

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Changing the mindset-wow

An ADUN from Sarawak, Yb Mong Dagang said it is imperative for people in the rural areas to change their mindset.

Mak Datuk oi...that's a long row to hoe.

What he said has been often said by our BN leaders most notably UMNO. Tun Mahathir even had to cry to cajole the UMNO members. At the end of his career, he said changing the mindset has been one of his failures. The others included anointing Anwar Ibrahim. And Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

What the ADUN says, the English will call it about as useful as a chocolate tea pot. Good in theory but useless in practice.

We need short of a revolution to want to change the Malay mindset.

Malays in the kampong lived basically on patronage. Without the government, the Malays seem unable to function.

This sense of mental bondage permeates every aspect of Malay life.

Consider a typical UMNO branch.

How do you expect a typical UMNO branch leader who may be a jaga sekolah, loafer and village bully, a retired 3^rd rank government servant, to launch a mental revolution? Has he got the credibility to champion a cause?

To carry out activities he will go running after the local ADUN, failing which he will write to the MP, Minister etc. He cant even organise a voluntary subcommittee to raise funds. To hold the yearly annual meeting he is dependent on the RM 200-300 given by the Ketua Bahagian. Then he will go around, bowl in hand, to solicit money. The typical UMNO branch has not even started its take off stage.

Do your Sigmund Freud on this. Even the RM 1 membership fee had to be paid for by someone else. UMNO is just a gravy train bringing freebies. What can you tell of someone or anyone who desires the good things in life for free?

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Ah....Re-branding UMNO

Our UMNO leaders are prone to making things sound so grand. Yes, they can be grandiloquent. They are after all, windbags on expensive ego trips. As when declaring they want to spill non Malay blood. Its called grandstanding.

Our leaders too are susceptible( hey I like this word as in Altantuya is susceptible to…….) to grandiose ideas. Like re-branding UMNO. Like we must find new ways to campaign. Etc.

Dato Najib comes back to Pekan, he says we must try new methods of campaigning. He means using the internet. He means UMNO paratroopers must be proficient in internet usage. They must become bloggers.

How many of the AJK Bahagian Pekan read much less write blogs? Maybe they watch adult films or try to catch the latest news about Ziana Zain.

The sad fact is, UMNO Pekan hasn’t got the in house talent to do the computers. It farms out its fight to 3^rd parties. The puteri members? Well yes, they go giggling here and there. Facebooks are their cup of tea not cyber battling the demons in cyberspace. How do they match up with the likes of RPK, Rocky, Kickdefella, A Voice, Unker Bernard, Tok Mommy, Jed Yoong, Jalan Sudin, Jebat Must Die, Lawyer Kampung, et al? mati woi.

Tan Sri Muhyidin, if he wants to re-brand UMNO start with insisting that the quota system in finding leaders be scrapped. Start asking Tan Sri. Are we here to save Dollah-Najib or are we here to save UMNO? Thinking about the Malays and UMNO’s future is not the monopoly of these two, my friend.

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FromPossibility to Reality

Some developments in UMNO appear to point to the scenario that I have painted. There will be changes in the top UMNO leadership but they will not be as that envisaged by the two top leaders.

The agreement between the top two was unethical. As I have said, it robbed the UMNO members of their right to determine the leadership of UMNO.

Mukhriz Mahathir says his chances for the post of Ketua Pemuda now look brighter. He feeds into the anger and disillusionment of the party members against the Dollah-Najib stewardship of UMNO. Khairy Jamaludin made the fatal error of pompously declaring he wants to bury Anwar. Now it looks as though, the only thing he will bury is his own career.

The UMNO/BN candidate lost because of disaffection with the top UMNO leadership. Najib came as field commander to Permatang pauh already beset with his record of personal controversies. He has the burden of Pak Lah’s incompetent administration and his own skeletons in the cupboard to carry.

The voters in Permatang Pauh saw through the smokescreen and gave their verdict.

In light of this widespread disaffection and feeling of hopes lost, Muhyidin Yassin must re-assess his own position. If a relative new leader like Mukhriz is clever enough to capitalise on this reservoir of discontentment, Muhyidin should also do the same.

He must re-asses his statement that he is going only for the vice president’s post. The room there is over crowded with young tigers, Tan Sri. He needs to go for a higher post or else he will get mauled in the cross fires.

Muhyidin should go for the deputy’s post. I am sure the mood at Permatang Pauh against Dato Najib was not lost on Muhyidin. He looks ungainly but is equally masterly at deft political moves. Muhyidin has general acceptance from the ground and if he does not capitalise on this, he may lose it the next round, if it ever comes.

I have said that Tengku Razaleigh’s best friend is Anwar Ibrahim. The only catch is both of them do not know it.

Anwar’s victory at Permatang Pauh, raised the Richter scale of UMNO’s discontentment against Pak Lah a few more notches. Anwar’s victory will be the most significant factor that will deliver TR the UMNO president’s post.

Tengku Razaleigh is the only UMNO leader now relatively not besmirched with controversies. He has the abilities and the political wisdom which UMNO now badly needs to stay relevant.

UMNO bahagians now should be bold enough to nominate Tengku Razaleigh. More so now that Pak Lah says he will leave anyway. There is no need to belabour the obvious as there will be no bad blood caused. The man says he is leaving anyway.

UMNO needs a new leadership to face off with Anwar in Putrajaya.

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Budget deficit yes, mental deficit no!

The state budget debate.

Usually the Pahang Dewan Undangan Negeri sits towards the end of the year to debate next year’s budget. This is a very important session to study the state’s financial health. It is also a chance to study the management of our finances.

As usual, I think the Pahang budget will be in deficit. This means of course our expenditure exceeds revenue. If I am not mistaken, Pahang has experienced deficit budgets continuously for a number of years. The cumulative deficit should be over RM100 million still.

A current deficit in our budget is not the end of the world. Whether a deficit is good or otherwise depends on the state of the economy. Is our economy at or near full employment?

Then there is the question of the application of the expenditure. Is the bulk of the expenditure applied to revenue generating activities? Or is the expenditure soaked up by operating expenditure?

But what is irksome is the simplistic and naïve arguments that usually accompany the budget session. It is not a question of ‘ when you need to spend, you spend’. This is not the issue. It is also not an issue of we need to incur deficits because we need to spend on welfare, helping the less fortunate, the infirmed, the old etc. its also not an issue whether no deficits will bankrupt the state. The state and country will never go bankrupt because they can always print money.

Indeed what is bothersome is the cavalier attitude that accompanies the budget debate. Most representatives will cruise along supporting the need to incur extra expenditure. The usual ready made answer meant to downplay or brush aside any contrarian thinking, will be the need to spend on welfare. The whole attitude will be characterised by who cares about deficit when people’s welfare is more important!

No one in their right mind will object with the lofty aim of relieving the hardships of the poor, old, infirmed and the less fortunate.

But we expect a higher level of argument from our reps. If the state is experiencing deficits why is it so? Why are we not generating sufficient revenues? Is our tax base not adequate? Is our efficiency in collecting revenue maximum?

A deficit should be scrutinised intensely because it could after all, masquerade financial management incompetence and corruption. Has the head of a department carry out a thorough examination justifying his department’s financial needs?

The twin evils that can bring down this government is corruption and incompetence. For example, it will be useful for our representatives to establish whether the budget deficits are caused by the following anomalies;

1. a piece of car jack that costs RM50 was bought for RM5,700

2. one set of set screw driver costing RM32 became RM 224

3. two units of crane towers that cost RM2.98 million, billed for RM5.72 million

4. a set of 10 technical books bought at RM 10,700.

5. A unit of 3.1 megapixels camera which costs around RM 1000 bought for RM 8,254.

These are information gleaned from the auditor general’s report. I am willing to swear by ‘potong ayam’, the favourite swearing method of my blogger friend( the originator of the acronym BUDU) that hardly any of the representatives ever read the financial reports and documents given to them.

So, while we incur budget deficit, let us avoid mental deficit. I urge our representatives to put forward arguments meant to provoke intelligent discussion. The sitting MB, while having the face of a Mafiosi enforcer, has the intellectual temperament to accept good argument, even contrarian ones.

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