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Friday, 1 February 2013

UMNO Leaders' misplaced Optimism



Last week several BN leaders said they were confident of getting a 2/3 majority. Will that be a 2/3 majority from their existing 140 seats?  That would give BN only about 92 seats. Which means PR will be the new government with 130 seats. That would seem to be more in tune with the mood on the ground.
UMNO still thinks Malays will come back to them. They are clinging to the falsehoods which they created that Malays are doomed without UMNO. UMNO operates on the false beliefs that (1) Malays in UMNO are more Malay than those Malays outside UMNO (2) it alone can take care of Malays (3) it alone can take care of religion and it alone (4) takes care of Malay rulers. All these beliefs are erroneous and the Malays themselves have debunked these lies.
The Malay outside UMNO is no less Malay nor are they less Muslim than Malays in UMNO. Loyalty to Malay rulers whose position is guaranteed by the constitution and belief of ALL Malays (non UMNO Malays included) and the religion of Islam does not need UMNO as it guardian. It is defended by ALL Muslims, UMNO or Non UMNO. The non UMNO governments in Kedah, Kelantan, Selangor and Penang have shown they can govern better and can take care of Malays and non-Malays alike.
Malays are naturally given priority because they are in the majority- the majority who are poor, majority of those less educated, majority needing welfare assistance, majority of those who require affordable public housing. The fact of being the majority ensures they will always get priority. Malays also formed the majority with lesser per capita income. All these courtesy of 55 years of UMNO rule, pillage and plunder.
So, we can’t believe our ears when we hear and our eyes when we read, UMNO insists it can get a 2/3 majority. Well good luck to them. We wish them all the best as the next opposition party in parliament.
I hope UMNO people understand the hidden message Mahathir is sending to them- that Najib’s fate is in the hands of UMNO delegates come the next General Assembly. What Mahathir means is, let’s send off Najib. He has met all the ketua bahagians and leadership at divisional levels and has berated Najib for being a weak leader which of course, everyone knows Najib is.
What about winning 2/3 majority? We have 166 parliamentary seats in Semenanjung. From that I see PR winning 110 seats in Semenanjung alone. Let us speculate possibilities in some states.
Perlis.
It is a small state. But the UMNO leaders there have voracious appetites. The big 4 are Shahidan Kassim, Azmi Khalid, Radzi Sheikh Ahmad and the current MB Mohd Isa Sabu. There is one more outsider. I am not going to argue with people who say he has much influence.  If that is true, he is another contender for MB. If UMNO wins.
So there you have it. The state is so messed up in internal squabbles.  Nowadays that is a typical description of UMNO everywhere. You have a state with 3 divisions and at least 5 people wanting to become MB all from UMNO.
If Shahidan Kassim cannot get his way to contest a state seat that will allow him to become MB once again, he has instructed his supporters to vote PR. Radzi Sh Ahmad’s posters are everywhere in town. He too wants to be MB .
Tun Daim once told me the only solution to help Perlis is to dismiss shahidan kassim, azmi Khalid, radzi sheikh ahmad and the Isa Sabu.  Because of the war between these people, at least 9 state seats are in jeopardy.
Kelantan.
In Kelantan , the only winnable parliamentary seat is Gua Musang and that only if Tengku Razaleigh is picked as the BN candidate. BN leaders are only interested to be division chiefs and ministers while secretly wishing PAS will win everything. If Tengku Razaleigh is fielded and wins, BN will only have 1 single representative there out of the 14. Pasir Mas? We can only ask Ibrahim who? He is the VK Lingam of UMNO. He is not UMNO. He speaks not for UMNO. But he supports UMNO. That makes Perkasa a political subcontractor for UMNO in charge of repairing sewage for UMNO. In the old days, Perkasa is like the night soil collector.
Terengganu.
In Terengganu, while Mustafa Ali is a bit conservative in saying that he is only confident of winning 4 parliamentary seats, I see PAS/PR winning 5 out of the 8 parliamentary seats. UMNO can probably win Kemaman, Besut and Hulu Terengganu.
Pahang.
Pahang is my home state. I shall therefore dwell a bit more on the politics here.
In Pahang, Jerantut will surely fall if Tengku Azlan stands. If he does, the opposition will win by at least 4000 vote majority. What is shocking is that this vote margin is predicted by UMNO members!. That shows Tengku Azlan is facing opposition within his own division.
When Tengku Azlan was asked directly by an UMNO member about his intentions, Tengku Azlan stated he will relinquish his seat. The questioner thumped his table, and said, so be it- lets agree on that. So if Tengku Azlan now reneges on his promise, even UMNO people will turn against him.
If others take his place, they will lose. If Dr Shukri takes over, Wan Amizan will arrange for his defeat. If wan Amizan takes over as parliamentary candidate, Dr Shukri will see that he is defeated.  
No one in Jerantut sees any other as more qualified than he.
PAS will win this seat no matter who contests for BN.
Kuala Lipis. The Lipis parliamentary seat is troubled. The present division chief Dato Abdul Rahman has been at war with the current MP, Dato Dr Shahrum(PhD) right from the beginning. Dato Rahman has extensive grassroots support. He has even defeated a current exco member to become the Lipis Division head. Dato Shahrum, the incumbent says he has not done anything wrong to warrant his removal. Those who opposed him say, he has done nothing. The seat is eyed by Abu Jimi, by the Women Affairs Minister’s Polsec- Suhaimi Ibrahim among others. We will see whether BN can win this seat.
In Raub, whether Ng Yen Yen stays as candidate or is replaced by the state MCA chief- Ho Khai Mun, the seat looks shaky. With 51% non-Malay voters and at least 40% of Malays supporting PR, Raub seems likely to be a casualty.
Bentong.  If the urge to cut off the ears of the Pahang MB is intense, Bentong can be won. If PR can come to an understanding and positions Leong Ngah Ngah of DAP in Bentong, Leow Tiong Lai can be beaten. Ngah Ngah is a popular figure who is a political veteran. He has made an indelible mark as a long-serving ADUN for Triang. The people are also primed up and motivated to take on Adnan Yaakob’s challenge to have his easr cut off. We would not want to maim anyone, but will welcome his desire to jump into the Pahang River. Just make sure, the water is only ankle deep Dato Sri DiRaja!
We need not elaborate further the bleak chances of BN in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota.
PR can win Cameron Highlands. The incumbent Devamany from MIC thinks he is a big shot reining in and chiding the Highland’s OCPD recently. To the Malays in Cameron Highlands we can only tell them, it’s a crying shame if you stay loyal to the MIC. You are the majority and you want to support an MIC candidate. If you want to win Camerons, ask UMNO to put up a candidate. If Palanivel comes there, send him back to open up a vegetarian restaurant. Ask him where is the RM100-million allocation to Tamil School.
The PR can defeat BN in Termerloh. SaifudinAbdullah  is most likely to be dropped and if he is, putting up a strong candidate  in Temerloh can secure a potential win for PR. Another area that is a potential win for PR is the Bera Parliamentary seat. It is currently held by Ismail Sabri Yaakob. His performance as minister has been lacklustre and he quarrels with most of the UMNO warlords in his division.
PR can win 5 to 7 parliamentary seats in Pahang. Pahang has 14 seats. 

Next Change: wait for the latest predictions courtesy of all the King's man from Bukit Aman, the MIB from MINDEF, politicians at the push buttons, the business community after a night out with the boys and girls from Putrajaya. Wow!

23 comments:

Anonymous,  1 February 2013 at 19:00  

It's always refreshing to read about your predictions and optimism. I pray what you say will come true.
I am quite surprised Saifudin Abdullah is going to be dropped.
This guy must join the Opposition. Wonder what he is doing in the UMNO cesspool.

Anonymous,  1 February 2013 at 19:38  

Dato, I hope your prediction comes true. I just want pr to win so that we can get rid of Lynas.
Kuantanite

monsterball 1 February 2013 at 20:18  

2/3 from their existing 140 seats?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
That's a good one.

Adios UMNO/BN,  1 February 2013 at 21:06  

Dato', The ground swell is not favourable to BN. The pulse of the nation is running a 'high-fever' and heart-beats of Dr.Mamakkutty, Musa Aman, Mooyudin, Taib Lanun and Najib
is pumping double-beats straining the ECG machines. These lanun and pencuris knows the time is nigh and day of reckoning is on the horizon.I can feel it in my guts that the BN is kaput. Take heart people of Malaysia the change is near. ABU...

Suci Dalam Debu 1 February 2013 at 22:18  

It is possible that BN will win 2/3. They gave themselves as much time as possible to be creative with the electoral rolls so that they can have many phantom votes already marked BN.

If it is a clean election, PR will win hands down but it seems this will not be the case.

Anonymous,  1 February 2013 at 22:51  

Again interesting prediction from Dato. I look forward to the next episode.

Anonymous,  1 February 2013 at 23:38  

Dato,

The word optimist is subjective to different people or parties.

Maybe PR is very optimist based on the genuine response from the attendees at Jelajah Merdeka Rakyat, in facebook, HKL112, blogs and many other PR activities which seems to make UMNO BN sleepless night.

The UMNO leadership declare their optimism in public and mass media is actually mixed with their "fear factor" by giving many ridiculous sense of fear to the Malaysian people if PR wins this coming election. We can see in the UMNO controlled media giving warnings of big disaster to the nation, warning by Che Det himself, warning by UMNO leadership at UMNO Johor etc.

It seems UMNO baru people now is as if "meroyan tak tentu pasal", "menggelabah","takut kena tangkap kemudian ketawa tak ada ISA lagi" and many other pyschological fear in the face of all these UMNO BN hooligans and pirates.

UMNO's optimism is actually "fear to death" in their hearts and mindset.

But whatever happens, PR leadership and at root level, must be aware of all "bad tactics" by UMNO BN.

PR must be always on alert and be creative in conveying the message to the people, not relying on AI alone. While AI, leads the aspiration of the Rakyat, the supporters of PR and others in general, must proactively take part at least by mouth or financial support, leaflets distribution etc, that can make PR target a reality after GRE13.

PR must remember that, while it seems the road to Putrajaya is an eye distance, UMNO BN is still in full control of every machinery and power abuse in all department, especially SPR.

So during GE13, all PR supporters must ensure that everything is in order technically and must be always aware of "dirty tactics and provocative action" by UMNO BN to deviate PR from final touchline to Putrajaya.



bruno,  1 February 2013 at 23:43  

Dato,it is a foregone conclusion that Umno/BN will be shown the revolving door this coming GE.Umno/BN is now like a leaderless coalition jumping around,clueless as to what the foot soldiers should do.Like whether they should go for a swin at the river,or jump from the hills down into the ravine.

The only thing that can help Umno/BN from lossing big time is the non ending quarrelling among the old grannies in the PR.If the PR cannot beat the leaderless Umno/BN in this GE,something must be very wrong among the leadership in the PR.

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 02:22  

UMNO/BN will cheat big time during GE 13 to ensure that they get 2/3.

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 03:08  

Dato..i agreed to your predictn of Bn(92) vs Pr(130).My formula is 222 seats from 13 states and 3 federal territory,is equal to 2+2+2+1+3+3=13....this number also there without zero!
Salute also to HKR112..that mean the simple majority for PR to win the election...the date 12jan13 or 12+1=13 is interesting significant...tahniah to md sabu

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 03:12  

Dato, the only reason why UMNO/BN is so optimistic of getting back 2/3 majority is that it has ordered the EC to do what it takes to win back the votes ! even if it means creating phantom voters or buying votes. The exposes from the Sabah RCI and complaints of citizens in West Malaysia who have not registered but have become voters are on the rise. This is proof that the EC is in cahoots with BN/UMNO to ensure its hold onto power is maintained. With the recent RCI exposes, Bersih should put more pressure on EC to come clean to ensure a fair election or the opposition will loose big time.

monsterball 2 February 2013 at 06:13  

Mahathir is helping Umno b lose the 13th GE.
His famous character....mentalities and behaviors...keep lying......keep twisting....keep blaming others...and project himself...so truthful...so wise....makes vast Malaysians sick to the stomach with his skin getting thicker and thicker...as he performs the dirtiest politics he can think of.....hoping Muslims stays racists and half pass sixes.
As for Najib....he was never an elected PM...and will stay as it is...for the 2 Scorpene subs and Alantuya unsolved issues...one stealing hundreds of millions....the other...the cruelest murder in the history of crimes in Malaysia...will do him up.
He knows that to well..and living on borrowed times...to be free as long as he can.
All depends on voters....and if BN can still win an election...it is through frauds and phantom voters....that Najib will regret fore the rest of his life.
That he knows it too.....and so few "machais" {gangsters} like Ibrahim Ali...Hassan Ali..EC chief...doing their best to fool voters.
After 12th GE...
"Getting to know you. Getting to know all about you"...is as easy as A B C to sing...with a twist.
Mahathir loving twisting....so can we to wild away the time.
70 days more..13th GE is around the corner....and Najib is planning "something else".
Relax...stay calm...and never be afraid to fight the devils....in whichever ways...they want it.
55 years under tyrants and dictators...rouges and thieves are really much much too long.
Anwar Ibrahim is the savior..the beacon of hope for all Malaysians...moulded in mysterious ways......than generations will talk about 13th GE..and Anwar..like Philippines about Aquino.....whose son is the President now...with wife...paving the way for the son.
I am sure....Anwar Ibrahim is never afraid of foul plays planned for him...if Najib dares.
With the powerful force of People solidly surrounding Anwar....eggs and stones are thrown...by cowards and puny machais.
Yip....Anwar is like the "Return of the Jedi"...and Najib better behave.

timor 2 February 2013 at 09:41  

Dato'

Phantom Votes?
Dont forget the Police Personnel and the Soldiers having two ICs, the Police or the Army ICs and the Public Ic.

PR should check with the ' electoral rolls ' aganst them having names both in Postal Votes and ordinary votes !!

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 11:49  

HELLO PEOPLE, NOW WE KNOW WHY, SPR IS THE 'KNIGHT-IN-SHINING-ARMOUR' FOR BN...AS FOR NOW IT SEEMS ALL OUR ACTION/MEASURES TO 'BERSIHKAN' SPR ARE IN VAIN...PLZ THINK OF SOMETHING FAST !!!

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 14:15  

Datuk, Mahatihir wants Najib out of the way so that when Muhiddin get into the drivers seat, Mahathir is going to demand his "reward" and it is in making his son Mukhriz the crown prince of humno. That is my prediction.

An of course, Mahathir will be the equivalent of the dowager empress.

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 15:42  

Although BN claims that they will win 2/3 majority, they have not been able to come up with even a simple analysis. Dato's state by state prediction may be subjective but BN is unable to even counter with their own. This can only mean that they are headless on where, how, when, what support they hope to receive. On the other hand, they resort to sacking their own professionals who sing a different tune.
Action always speak louder than words and with the rakyat now all itching for action, I doubt BN can hang on to their rhetorics much longer.

Sam Raj,  2 February 2013 at 17:41  

Dato, I wish to share your article on facebook. Is it possible?

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 21:53  

Y Bhg Dato'

Jeli in Kelantan is a safe UMNO seat for the incumbent Mustapa.

Anonymous,  2 February 2013 at 22:57  

If BN is really that confident, GE13 would have been held yesterday.
UMNO is in real panic mode, leaders like Najib, Muhideen and Mamak are running amok, with a deep fear of being made reluctant guests of Bamboo River.
Actually, I pity them. Being in the evening of their lives, they are being tormented by the real possibilities of being thrown in the dungeon,and left to rot. This is hell on earth for them.

monsterball 3 February 2013 at 05:57  

69 days to Judgement Day!!
How long can Najib delay 13th GE??
The long long delay..till the last days of his UNELECTED PM positions....speaks for itself.
He tells all...don't "jolok" {pester} him for the date.
Like the soothsayer said to Julius Caesar...."Beware the eyes of March"...March 11th??????

looes74 6 February 2013 at 00:53  

Monsterball,
Kaytee insinuated his blog that you have paased away. Can you appear in his blog? Just to frighten him

Alan Newman 16 February 2013 at 19:42  

Now they detain a highly respected Australian Senator coming to observe a fair election. I kept pointing out a hundred times the BN-UMNO Gov't, in power for 55 yrs, is rotten to the core, rotten & stinking inside out. Mahathir & Taib Manmud's wealth is each rated at approx RM45 billion, Najib RM30 billion, Daim's? Taib's Uncle Yakub before that? And all the other cronies' wealth? All the losses and mismanagement in 55 yrs? If you crunch the numbers, every single Malaysian has lost a fortune. (For the understanding of Sarawak’s interior natives: 1 billion is 1000 million). These are mafias, crooks & criminals by any standard. Now Jesse Jaskson Junior in US faces 3 yrs in jail for misuse of US$750,000 in election funds. In China people are shot for embezzling US$200,000. Your Malaysian Giant Criminals? You estimate the punishment to befit the crimes! I’d say 5,000 strokes of the rattan and 10,000 years in jail.

Alan Newman 25 February 2013 at 19:47  

PEOPLE POWER!
PEOPLE POWER!
PEOPLE POWER! now taking back the government from the corrupt, the criminals and their cronies after 55 long years.

Spread this slogan everywhere, this will quicken the demise of rotten BN & UMNO.

N/B: An economist at Morgan Stanley assessed M’sia might have lost US$100 billion since the early 1980s to corruption (=RM300 billion = RM300,000 million)

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