Friday, 29 June 2012

UMNO's con-porate game and KKK Politics


We shall refrain from jumping the gun to make an analysis of the FGV listing. It’s too early. But usually the shape of things to come would have been settled in the first few hours after the bell rung. The margin will likely settle between 50 sen to RM1.00. 
The bell tolled sweetly for the market players, but will be sounding bitter for FELDA settlers and FELDA workers. It’s CEO, the man who lost RM 120 million when he was heading Golden Hope, said, it was not bad. If he holds 2 million shares, of course it is not bad. If he had unloaded his stock yesterday, he would have pocketed RM RM1.6 million. The FELDA settler- holder of 810 shares, got a little under RM 500. 
Not bad for the CEO, horrifying for the person who was jumping up and down 2 weeks ago, insisting that Najib is a messiah. Never in the history of Malaysia, has so many accolades given to one man in so short a time. But the greatest description that will forever stick to him will read- here lies Optimus Prime, the great Malaysian Transformer. 
Now even FELDA is the new transformation instrument!
After 56 years of toiling the soil, each FELDA settler ends up making around RM 500, while the bloodsuckers and leeches riding on their backs and butt ramming them, made big money. For every 100,000 shares, the owners made around 85,000. The suited jerk with 1 million shares who unloaded them in a flash yesterday, made RM 850k. That guy would have probably sashayed into one of the exclusive clubs in KL yesterday, opened up his Dom Perignon, Chateau Margaux or Chateau Petrus to wash down his wagyu beef. Those who unloaded their 50,000 shares made RM40k plus, feasted on Satay Kajang with teh tarik but will claim they are dining at Shahrizat’s meatworks. 
The people showing childish exuberance at the stock exchange yesterday, making hand gestures `urging’ the FGV stock to rise, were, as we can guess NOT FELDA folks. They were all dressed in their finest suits. Their ladies and consorts bedecked with jewelry up to the armpits. But that would be ok- because why can’t Malay ladies adorn themselves with the finest of jewelries if the Chinese nyonyas can? Moreover, they have saved money from when they were infants, knowing when they get older and fatter, they want to order diamond rings from Messrs. Jacob of New York. 
Those making money were all those who bought or were given large quantity of FGV stocks. They were not even `linked’ to FELDA people in any way. Mukhriz Mahathir was busy last week allocating huge chunks of FGV stock to cronies. He will collect later when making a bid for higher positions in the UMNO hierarchy.

The Najib camp is aware that the knives and meat cleavers are already sharpened for him. This is the kind of thing that he is most aware of- because the UMNO world is a world full of plots and counter plots. They are only good at scheming and evil machinations. 
The recent outburst by Herr oberleutnant (senior lieutenant) Mohamad Abdul Aziz from Sri Gading division of the United Munafik National Organization must not be seen as an isolated incident. Although of his own making, it’s the type of mental premature ejaculations typical of UMNO drones. DAP is not responsible for this oberleutnant’s stupidity. 
The chickens have finally come home to roost. Now we know what stuff is UMNO made of. The true character of a person and in this case, an organization is revealed in times of difficulty. UMNO is in such troubled times, the worms are coming out of the woodwork. UMNO has never had to resort and stooped to the lowest of street politics.  It’s an indicator of the quality of people who has risen within the corrupt system of UMNO.
I thought it has degenerated into a lowly peddler of smut VCD or the installer of hidden cameras inside toilets; I was wrong- it has gone from bad to worse. It has whored itself!
Already, it has consorted itself to shadowy organizations such as Perkasa and Pekida and associated itself to various martial groups. It’s behaving like a whore that it is.  To the drowning person, a piece of floating vegetation is a life-saver. UMNO hangs on to every avenue it thinks can save the party. 
The UMNO president or perhaps we may now have to call him the Imperial Wizard has gone to grace a hovel in Keningau, Sabah.   Under normal times, the dwelling would only merit some cursory attention from the welfare officer; but this time, the big Kahuna of the chief welfare officer has come to town. He wants to showcase his visit to the hovel as his absolute commitment to raising the welfare of people. In other words, in Sabah the land of the instantly minted Malaysian citizens, he does a very desperate attempt to show that he is a man of the people. 
You know that he is so farcical when he has to even officiate the opening of a public toilet in Kampung Ubai in Pekan.  
He is all things to all people. His bizarre quietness over the paranoid reaction of certain Malaysians over the alleged involvement of some Singapore diplomats as observers to the Bersih 3.0 event and his equally muffled stance when extreme Malay elements called for the hanging of Ambiga, demonstrate that he wants to secure also the allegiance of right wing extremists in his party. He will do anything to cling on to power and will even do a Dr Faustus.  
Sometimes the expression when the rubber hits the road, the true character of a person is revealed is used. Her Oberleutnant Mohamed Abdul Aziz must be a distinguished member of the KKK- Malaysian chapter. With the hang Ambiga incident, he has now revealed himself from being an officer in the Malaysian Nazi Party to some office bearer in the KKK-Malaysian Chapter. 
We do not yet know what position he occupies after the Imperial Wizard. He may be the Imperial Kludd or chaplain or the Imperial Kaliff or just a recruiter to UMNO’s true brand of right wing politics. Or he may be a Kligrapp, the secretary who articulates the beliefs of his Klansmen. Indeed he may be one when he suggested Amibiga be hanged. 
Today Ambiga, tomorrow it could be anyone of us- Malays, Chinese and Indians or anyone who stands opposite UMNO’s king and country. Let all Malaysian Indians in Malaysia cast UMNO out of their system.
You have to give it to the UMNO people- the scum finally surfaces to the top. The pattern finally emerges- those bigots and empty headed windbags are finally overwhelming the sane UMNO members. 
The best thing to do for the UMNO laymen is to abandon these bigots and cerebrally challenged people and migrate over to the enlightened side.  UMNO is fast becoming the homegrown version of the KKK which is out to lynch those who have different ideas and opposing views. This serves to prove once and for all, the intolerance and bigotry of UMNO itself. 
What are we to make of UMNO when its leadership is bereft of people with quality including the greatest flip-flopper of them all- the UMNO president? There’s not a squeak from him when a member of his Klan asked for the lynching of Ambiga. 
So the man who thinks he can say with impunity `let’s hang Ambiga’ without others noticing it, is gravely mistaken. This isn’t a case of a simple faux pas- it’s a calculated statement that has exposed UMNO’s inherent right wing racism. It’s the racism reminiscent of the KKK going after Negroes to hang them. 
What are we to do with this kind of people? It’s best to leave them to their own devices. Otherwise, we will contract the same mental disease if we engage them. Don’t agree? Retract their citizenship! Don’t agree? Hang them! Don’t agree? Jail them! This is the quality representative of the current UMNO. Do we entrust this nation of ours in the hands of imbecilic populist politicians? 
How can Dr Mahathir be mistaken about the nature of the current UMNO beast? He can’t because, he himself created the UMNO Frankenstein. And so now he laments- the rejects remain in UMNO. The clever has joined PAS. The intelligent has migrated to PKR. The smart people have joined DAP. UMNO is left with the miscreants typically represented by the Mohamad Abdul Azizs in this country. 
We, the people are tyrannized and oppressed by people pouring out the filth that is supposed to exit from the opening at the posterior, now coming out from the mouths. 
How can we blame Dr Mahathir when he says UMNO is rotten to the core? He is proximate enough to the UMNO people to smell their soiled breath. Therefore if we want to be safe, let us all resolve to reject UMNO and embrace the politics of Pakatan Rakyat. 
No one can do any worse than what UMNO has done.

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Thursday, 28 June 2012

FGV= UMNO's Con-porate Agenda.


Just when they thought it’s safe to get into the water. The sakmongkol shark is out hunting again. this time it is accompanied by another stealthy hunter, the sea dwelling t-rex walla. This clinical dissection of the scam which UMNO is pulling with the FGV listing is done by Walla.
Here’s Walla on the FGV con-porate listing:-

This IPO is supposed to be the second biggest in the world after Facebook. Yet of all the thousands of investment bank analyst reports out there over the last one year, only three have been published on FGVH and only in this month. The houses are Affin, TA and ECM Libra. Their reports are perfunctory on both the investment risks and value proposition of this listing.
 What about the big investment banks? If the deal is so good, why are they exhibiting a mystifying silence? Perhaps they have concluded as much as Profundo(http://is.gd/UJlsyf).
 In fact, you can search high and low and yet not be able to pin down even one communication by Najib's own Umno propaganda organ on how the listing can really benefit our Felda settlers and their families in the long run. There's no recognition of their effort and sacrifice on land they have worked for generations in the last fifty years. In fact, it looks like they have been bulldozed over. Doesn't that look familiar, if one still remembers all the past big projects?
That is why Sak's series on Felda is very important to both the settlers and their families. His posts have exposed how Najib's Umno government is going about trying to get the rakyats' money for its own cronies and political objectives. Except that this time it is doing so through assets of their state governments and deposits of their pension funds.
The deal is bad. Even before listing, it is announced the overseas downstream operations will be restructured. Why wait until listing to restructure what have been bleeding overseas investments for years now, you can ask next. And how much restructuring can one do until listing day in order to create a sense of positive change that can be translated into investor confidence, your next question is already on your lips even before this sentence is completed.
In fact, the thought would have occurred to you faster but you were already engaged wondering how Najib can only now talk about abolishing taxi license monopoly when our taxi drivers have been enslaved by Umno's cronies for years.
Next. The one thing you can't miss that leaps out at you from the numbers in the prospectus is how disproportionate are the share allocations. The settlers get a pittance while Umno-linked organizations get the mother lode. And Umno has the nerve to say the listing will unlock value. FOR WHO, YOU CAN NOW ASK WITH UNFEIGNED SCORN.
It is also because the share distributions have already been pre-assigned that this listing is standing at the cliff.
 A good listing should have majority free float shares to flex price elasticity. The understanding now is that most of the shares are forced onto the pension funds like the civil service pension fund and the EPF as well as selected state governments, agencies and cornerstone investors.

 It has also been mentioned some of them will be embargoed by a moratorium not to sell their allotted shares for six months after listing.
 So how many free float shares will there be for the market to sell and buy in the weeks after listing?
If one cannot sell, there is no demand to buy. Without demand to buy, the price won't stay up for long. Any euphoria will evaporate very quickly because the pricing momentum of an IPO bull run will fizzle out once buyers realize it's already a wired deal favoring selected shareholders. And just by looking at the size of the wired shares, people will conclude as much.
 So if the share price falls after listing, those pension funds and state governments involved will lose the value of their investments which means the dividends they can afford in years to come that should be given to their own shareholders, namely the rakyat and civil servants, will also be much less, in addition to subpar shares they will be holding that locks in their own liquid and solid assets. With such an opening record, it would take a miracle for the share price to leap up even six months later.
 Share prices leap up in anticipation of gain. For mining companies, announcement of new finds, for banking houses, realization of forecast profits, for construction companies, development of land and large-sized building contracts in burgeoning economies. But for listed plantation companies? Only if the demand for their agro-products is sustainably high that will earn them high profits to reduce their debt overhangs while affording funds for expansion of their production.
In the case of Felda, the market is tepid, the debt is high, the asset needs massive replanting which has a long gestation period to produce yield, new competitors are ramping up with bigger land banks to change the entire market dynamics, and past diversification projects have not derived high profits, only bad losses.
Notice that the state governments and civil servants will also be affected this time from what is considered a federal project.
 Let us close the loop. Let us make a raw assumption that there is no moratorium on the favored shareholders. In other words, let's assume they can sell immediately upon listing. The question then remains - sell to who?
Let's say those Umno-linked organizations unload all the 1,900 million shares onto a market which has 273 million shares held by the public and Felda settlers and staff. In the passive and conservative investment climate, where is one going to find enough buyers to sponge up those 2,173 million shares and avoid the perception there is a run on the listed vehicle which will vertically drop the price?
Therefore, does one honestly think the price won't go into a tailspin? If and when it does, how are our Felda settlers going to service the bank loan they have had to take to pay for their shares now worth peanuts? That RM15,000 payoff will already be consumed by then; the KPF new dividends won't amount to much either.
 So we have a situation that the price is going to be affected by big chunks of Umno-linked shareholders who either can't sell for six months, or can sell but have no buyers. Can the price stay up in such a situation? If the price cannot stay up, what is the worth of those 810 shares to the settler?
 Thus the situation before us is like Umno trying to get the tail to wag the dog. In our local jungle, that's getting the tail to wag the elephant.
It remains to ask whether Najib's Umno knows what it is doing. Looking at Umno's record of running national finances these past few years, a chorus of no's seems imminent.
You can already draw rich hints of palpable window dressing from Refsa's exposure of Pemandu's massaged numbers for ETP. The RM190 Billion of ETP projects is now found out to be only RM13 Billion for 2011; in addition a wafer-fab plant is said to be up when its investor company is already belly-up. That figure of only RM13 Billion looks remarkably like what Miti would have gotten by way of inbound investments a year so it looks like taking credit for other peoples' work. In this case, those inbound investments have gone into the states of Selangor and Penang. Oops.
Thus Umno's spin of numbers cannot be trusted. This political animal is just playing musical chairs with your money. It covers one loss using bonds issued just for the purpose. When those bonds mature, it will issue another bond to pay up the maturity of the previous bond so the net effect is just passing debts to future generations. Debts are a reflection of bad management and leakage. If management has integrity, corruption would not happen.
 The con-porate shareholders of tomorrow's FGVH will be the driver of Felda's operations. Motivated only by profit and growth, they will marginalize our Felda settlers even more. As Sak has clearly pointed out, there are ways those urban shareholders can push policies that affect the livelihood of the settlers, the costs of their purchases, and the conditions under which they have to operate daily. The market is sentiment-agnostic. It doesn't care for people and what they have to go through to eke a living or how much a piece of land they have worked on for fifty years has more than assignable commercial value. They don't care about lifeblood, just what to do to cut a bigger profit for themselves. The settlers will have no voice in the matter. By that time, their cooperative will be made obsolete.
This is not fair. This is unjust. Especially to poor, honest, hardworking and simple folks.

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Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Kita Gantung Pembunuh, bukan Gantung yang Berbeza Pendapat!


Matnya- Kita gantung yang membunuh Altantuya. KIta gantung pengedar dadah. Kita gantung yang menjual Kad Pengenalan. Kita gantung yang menjual rahsia tentera laut. kita gantung yang menjual kerakyatan. Kita tak gantung orang yang berbeza pendapat dan pandangan. Hanya untuk sekali sahaja- pemimpin UMNO gunalah otak kamu.
Pemimpin2 United Munafik National Organization( UMNO) bersikap macam burung ostrich yang menyorokkan kepala dalam lubang tanah. Dia ingat kalau dia tak nampak musuh pemangsa, maka musuh pemangsa atau binatang lain tidak nampak akan dia. Hendak kita ketawakan dan kritik mereka, kita serba salah- maklum sahajalah, mereka berotak burung. Kita jadi pandir jika melayan puak UMNO. Tak setuju- tarik kerakyatan! Tak setuju- kita gantung. Tak setuju kita jel!. Inilah kualiti pemimpin UMNO. Hendakkah kita amanahkah negara kepada orang bermutu rendah dan selekeh otak macam ini? 
Dr Mahathir sendiri yang kata- memang pemimpin UMNO yang sekarang ini orang2 bodoh dan half past six. Yang cerdik sudah masuk PAS, yang bijak sudah masuk PKR dan yang pandai dah masuk DAP. Yang tolol dan bahlul dan mengeluarkan bahan yang patut keluar dari dubur, di keluarkan ikut lubang mulut sahaja yang tinggal dalam UMNO. Sebab itu Dr Mahathir kata, UMNO sudah busuk sampai ke usus. Kalau kita hendak selamat, maka kita amanahkan negara kepada Pakatan Rakyat. Bukan saya cakap, Dr Mahathir yang suruh. 
Mahukah kita amanahkan pentadbiran negara kepada barisan pemimpin yang tolol lagi bahlul, perasuah dan pembuli? Bagaimana negara hendak maju dalam tangan orang UMNO yang tolol wa bahlul? Rosak dan punah negara kita. 
Orang tolol dan kurang akal sahaja yang mengatakan kalau UMNO tidak ada, orang Melayu akan mati, kalau UMNO tidak ada, agama Islam akan hancur dan kalau UMNO tidak ada, Raja Melayu akan lenyap.

Takde orang Melayu mati di Kelantan bila UMNO kalah. Tidak ada orang Melayu yang sengsara bila UMNO tewas di Pulau Pinang- bahkan orang Melayu lebih sengsara di bawah pemerintahan UMNO dan geng jahat nya Gerakan di Pulau Pinang dahulu. Islam tidak hancur ketika PAS memerintah Kelantan dan Kedah. Raja Melayu adalah raja keatas SEMUA rakyat bukan raja untuk UMNO sahaja. Jika Raja Melayu berlagak sebagai Raja untuk UMNO sahaja, maka nanti jika UMNO tiada, raja Melayu lenyaplah. Bersikaplah sebagai raja untuk SEMUA rakyat, baharulah Raja Melayu akan kekal. Bergantung kepada UMNO bererti pendek umur untuk semua orang Melayu. 
Mari kita lihat lagak pemimpin berotak burung ostrich ini. pemimpin gerombolan UMNO rasa memadai dan mencukupi hanya dengan mengeluarkan penafian. Bila di tuduh ada skendal rasuah dalam pembelian kapal selam Scorpene, maka pak menteri yang bertangung jawab merasakan cukup dan padan hanya dengan mengeluarkan kenyataan menafikan nya. Orang kata ya- dia kata tidak. Ini kualiti pemimpin UMNO yang mengatakan ‘come on give him some humanity’. 
Yang terlebih bodoh antara pemimpin UMNO ialah mereka yang enggan menggunakan bahan yang ada antara dua telinga mereka. Dan saya tidak bercakap mengenai hidung mereka. Jadi apabila otak tidak di gunakan( sebab mungkin tidak ada lansung), pemimpin UMNO menganjurkan jalan pintas.

Bila Ambiga menjuarai suatu aliran yang menyusahkan UMNO, maka mereka berteriak tarik balik kerakyatan Ambiga. Habis Ambiga hendak di hantar di mana? Bukankah kerakyatan itu sesuatu yang di jamin dan di lindungi oleh undang undang negara bukan undang2 UMNO? Ambiga itu lahir di mana? 
Yang lebih dasyat, ada wakil rakyat UMNO yang terkurang cerdik di Malaysia menyarakan agar Ambiga di gantung. Bukankah ini suatu ugutan bunuh dan jika ugutan bunuh, polis kita nanti report di buat kah? Satu Malaysia dah baca ugutan bunuh ini, maka polis patut tangkap siapa yang bercakap mengenai perkara itu. Undang2 kita ini mob rule kah?
Apabila isiu demi isiu di timbulkan- pemimpin UMNO merasionalkan ia sebagai cubaan mencermarkan imej pemimpin negara? Hendak cemar apa jika sememang dan sebermula nya imej sudah tercemar? 
Jika isiu yang di timbulkan terhadap semua pemimpin UMNO adalah usaha memburukkan nama orang UMNO menjelang PRU, maka apa pula kita hendak klasifikasikan isiu2 yang di timbulkan terhadap pemimpin pembangkang? Rakyat Malaysia khususnya orang Melayu jangan di perbodohkan oleh UMNO lagi. Jika kita bersedia mengutuk isiu2 yang di timbulkan terhadap UMNO sebagai mainan politik semata2- maka kesediaan serupa mesti di beri keatas segala isiu terhadap pemimpin parti pembangkang. 
Semua isiu terhadap Anwar Ibrahim misalnya adalah gimik politik UMNO yang kian terdesak. Pengkudaan institusi Raja2 Melayu adalah gimik politik UMNO. Hanya kali ini sahaja UMNO menunjukkan merekalah yang menjuarai Raja2 Melayu terhebat dari orang lain. Di masa yang lain, UMNO lah yang hendak gantung raja2 Melayu.
Saya sarankan, kalau kita nak gantung, kita gantung semua pegawai imigresyen, pegawai jabatan pendaftaran yang membiarkan orang asing mendapat kad pengenalan dan kerakyatan segera. Ini terang2 pengkhianatan dan pengkhianatan terhadap Raja dan Negara di hukum gantung. Kita gantung orang yang menjual rahsia tentera laut Malaysia. Komisyen yang dia dan sahabat2 pengkhianat nya terima adalah hasil pengkhianatan dan pengkhianat semua nya mesti di gantung. 
Kita gantung semua yang mencuri perbedaharaan negara. Yang membawa lari duit gelap sebanyak RM 1.3 trillion dalam tempoh 10 tahun, di tangkap semua dan di gantung.

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Monday, 25 June 2012

FGV - The Settlers' Road to Serfdom( 2/2)


The UMNO president has turned football commentator. 6-0, 7-0, 14-0. Absolutely no class. Shouting here and there. Frothing at the mouth.  Well, he can say Gol, Gol as many times as he likes. Gol is the Pahang slang for mati or die! He will win only 3 states. So, we will let him drown in footballers’ stool. He’s speaking in front of UMNO crowd. His speech reported by Utusex Malaysia, carried by Berita Hairan, aired by TV ¾. What can we expect?
Let’s get back to FGV where he wants to rake in RM 6 billion to pay his way through the next General Elections.
 There are so many questions unanswered by the FGV listing. People like PNB, EPF, Tabung Haji are asked to take up to almost 20% of the shares. 5 state governments including my home state of Pahang are also arm-twisted into taking up shares. These (state own funds and state governments) will take up almost 30% of the shares. Why these people? Why is a high portion of existing shares unloaded into the market? Where is the investor demand that gives us the confidence that this FGV listing is going to be spectacular? One has the feeling; these entities are brought in solely for the purpose of shoring up the FGV counter.
What the public hasn’t been told is, only 20% of FELDA top management supported the idea of FGV’s IPO. 65% of the FGV staff thought FGV simply isn’t ready to list. This is a rush job. We must keep asking why?
The FGV prospectus is fast acquiring the stature of the bikini version of statistical information- what it reveals is suggestive but what it hides is vital. We have not been told, that only 3% of FELDA land bank is RSPO certified (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil). This means in future, we may find it difficult to sell CPO to the world market because much of the land bank from where the CPO comes from is not RSPO certified. Also, because we haven’t shown commitment to RSPO, FGV’s plan expansion of plantations in places like Indonesia, Africa may not progress as fast as FGV wants.
How did FELDA end up employing a person seen largely responsible for the loss of RM 120million in the company he worked previously? Now, he is helming FELDA and FGV together with a former teacher who is largely responsible for allocating state land to cronies in Negeri Sembilan? Will the Boston Consulting group, Hay and Aeon Hewitt recommend the government to terminate the employment of FELDA’s CEO?
This rush up job is likely to end FELDA and FGV like what ails MAS presently. The starting idea should have always been how to fortify FELDA and shape it up. We have saying right from the beginning, if settlers’ welfare and economics are the prime concern, then allow KPF buy out FGV. Then KPF owns 100% of FELDA holdings and all the assets therein. What is stopping KPF from forming or hiring a first rate management company to run its business?  KPF as the settlers’ keeper will then look after settlers’ welfare directly. FELDA doesn’t even have to list FGV as it’s out of orbit completely.
What is the immediate effect of the FGV IPO? It allows 94.5 % of the subscribers who are not even FELDA settlers ride on the broken backs of FELDA folks. That’s the immediate effect. FELDA settlers get 91 million shares. 1.3 billion shares are taken up by state governments, glcs, cornerstone investors. Inside that quantity, 420 million shares are set aside for rich individuals who must show they have a least RM 3 million in assets and companies worth RM 10 million.
The FELDA people whom everybody says the IPO is meant to benefit are left beached. FELDA Holds back 40% share. When people kept pressuring Cikgu Isa, he says 20% of the FGV shares will be parked under a trust Fund. In other words- gua takda caya sama itu koperasi bolo punya orang.
If we didn’t ask, he will not tell. His failure to tell suggests that` we will create a trust fund for settlers’ is an afterthought or an off the cuff reaction by a sly politician to get out of a sticky situation. What is the name of the trust fund? FAHc? 
Meanwhile, KPF the settlers’ cooperative is treated like a leper- FGV listens to the advice of the consultants not to touch cooperative. The settlers must now adjust themselves to the fact that they own nothing in FGV but holds 50% of FAHc. They derive profits and dividends from there – not directly from FGV. To put it bluntly, they have been suckered.
The settler ends up getting 810 units of shares. If the premium is RM 1, they get RM 810 less 200, they get RM 610 nett. Plus the RM 15,000 they got earlier because Najib is being charitable, they get RM less than RM 16,000. The Melayus who never set foot on FELDA land and who will touch FELDA folks with a 10-foot pole can get millions of Ringgit. So, so much for placing FELDA people first. They are first indeed, but first in the food chain of UMNO predators.
The first generation settlers need to think about the new wave of settlers too. With 360,000 hectares of corporate estates leased to FGV for 99 years, 2nd and 3rd generation settlers are forever denied the opportunity to own and cultivate land. 360,000 hectares can sustain some 80,000 more settlers. Where will they go? Not everyone goes to colleges and universities. Some FELDA born may want to become settlers as well as other landless and jobless in the villages.
They better start thinking hard. FGV will now own the corporate estates of about 360,000 hectares plus all the land not owned yet by FELDA. These include land that has been set aside by states for development purposes- the town areas in FELDA schemes, the land on which schools are built, community halls are constructed, land on which suraus and masjids are erected, even the land on which the new futsal fields are located. These are all taken over by FGV. You may need to pay commercial rates to play futsal now.
Where are the fundamentals to support the business? The productive trees? The market? The price? The industry?
Over 50% of the trees in FELDA plantations need to be replanted. That translates into higher costs. The cost of cultivating a new field is about RM15, 000. If 53% of 355,864 hectares need to be re-planted, it will cost RM2.8 billion on replanting alone, spread over 5-years. And if you find additional planting areas, you can only reap what you sow in 3-4 years.
New areas to be planted means more cost and a waiting period. Demand from big buyers is slowing down. China and India for example are cutting back their purchase of CPO. Malaysia isn’t the only supplier of CPO. Indonesia is becoming more competitive and can unload its CPO into the market dampening the price of Malaysian CPO.
The fundamentals are not favorable. That being the case, you can’t sustain the price post listing for long.
Whatever profits they make will depend on the premium at opening day. Wait longer, the price may fall below RM4.55/unit and the settler ends up owning the bank money. But UMNO and BN don’t care about this. All they are interested is the price on the opening day so that they and their cronies and fortunate and deep pocket members of the public can make a killing on that day.
Out of the whole exercise, the settler makes RM 15,000(paid in 3 tranches) and the proceeds from the sale of the FGV shares which they bought. One settler gets 810 shares while those not related to FELDA at all make a killing at the stock market, riding on the backs of the FELDA folks.
The interest of FELDA folks is looked after by their cooperative. But where is KPF which owns 51% of FELDA Holdings- whose assets are absorbed into FGV in the scheme of things?
Someone asked where is the FELDA Asset Holdings Corporation (FAHC) in my earlier article? It will soon come. It will hold the 40% of the shares not traded. Isa Samad has said that we will allocate 50% of the FAHC shares to KPF.
Read carefully. KPF which will give up its 51% in FELDA Holdings will be given 50% shares in FAHC. What does this mean? This means, later KPF will get its profits share and dividends from FAHC not FGV. Here now is a middleman created to take care of settler’s interest on trust. Isa Samad and the whole gang do not believe KPF can look after the interests and welfare of settlers and employees.. Because, the existence of the FAHC or a trust fund wasn’t mentioned in the IPO prospectus, that is worrying.  
Where will the RM 10billion be parked? I suspect, FELDA will get only RM 4 billion. The bulk goes to the minister in charge of FELDA. Maybe it goes to the UMNO war chest whose last remaining arsenal in its armory, is to buy out its way through. That’s something which the UMNO president is an expert in.
Even if FAHC, the holder of the 40% of FGV shares, gets RM4 billion, KPF will not see any money. It was supposed to be cashless transaction. What FGV gets is 50% in FAHC which has 40% equity in FGV. It won’t get cash but only promises of future dividends and share of profits. Maybe that RM 4 billion is held in the accounts of FAHC to finance at least one year’s of whatever is left of FELDA’s operations.
What about the 5 states which have provided irrevocable pledge to subscribe to the FGV shares? Pahang State Government – 5% (182,407,575 shares), Sabah State Government – 5% (182,407,575 shares), Terengganu State Government – 0.28% (10,000,000 shares), Negeri Sembilan State Government – 0.16% (5,837,070 shares). Perak State Government – 0.40% (14,957,421 shares)
How do these state governments pay for the shares? In the form of land set aside for FELDA plantations? If the payment is in the form of land converted into equity, does the cessation of land violate the terms of the GSA? Under the General Settlement Act( GSA 1960), FELDA is entrusted to develop land on behalf of settlers and not own land itself. Since 1990, when it stopped recruiting new settlers, it has done precisely that.  That’s the 360,000 hectares of land it manages through FELDA Plantations.
I suppose its land already assigned to FELDA’s current cultivation that is converted. Now that FGV is taking over, make sure all the premiums have been paid. So that the states can get money and pass it on to the rakyat.
Settlers have voices only in FAHC. They don’t realize the moment FGVH is listed; they have practically no say whatsoever as all the 360,000 hectares of land and all assets therein in FELDA Holdings and in 12 other subsidiaries are leased to FGVH for 99 years. According to the terms of the lease, FGVH must pay FELDA RM248.5 million (or RM698.24 / hectare) annually together with a fixed percentage of FGVH’s plantations operating profit. But remember, the rental is revisable at 20 year intervals.  And compare this lease fee for example to what Boustead pays at RM3, 500 / hectare, then you realize that the settlers were made suckers for such a cheap leasing rate.
That is, you jump up and down when your FELDA is underpaid by a whopping 400%!
As I have said, what’s not said in the prospectus is more important. The FGV prospectus is like the bikini or the G string. What it reveals is suggestive but what it hides is vital!
This is the con job that will consign PM Najib to the dustbin of the rogues’ history.  He is deep into pork barrel politics nowadays- now he’s giving out RM 520 to taxi drivers to buy tyres. That’s bribery by any name. Who is supplying the tyres? Some ketua Bahagian UMNO somewhere?


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Sunday, 24 June 2012

FGV is the settlers' Road to Serfdom. (1/2)


Someone wrote that FELDA settlers will eventually become estate workers. The FGV listing is the settler’s road to serfdom.
Table 1: %age and number of shares offered for sale.
per
Saham2 yang di tawarkan
Peratus(%)
Jumlah saham
1
Saham sedia ada yg di tawarkan
33.1
1,208.9 juta
2
Saham baru yang di tawarkan
26.9
   980.0
3
JUMLAH
60.0
2,188.90

Table 2: allocation of FGV shares.
 per
Jenis pembeli
Peratus(%)
Jumlah saham( Juta unit
1
Yang di pilih oleh MITI
11.5%
419.5
2
Pembeli institusi
41.1%
1495.8
1 +2
Jumlah
52.6%
1915.30
4
Orang awam
2.0%
73.0
5
Peneroka FELDA
2.5%
91.2
6
Kakitangan FELDA
3,0%
109.4
5+6
jumlah
5.5%
200.6

JUMLAH KESELURUHAN
60.0%
2188.9

With a bottomless pit of scandals and irregularities, PM Najib must be off his rockers when he says he will win 14-0 in the next elections. He won the Raja Lawak competition in Melaka.
But I know, the only time he HAS to say something like that, is when he knows the chips are down. We know when Najib says he will win 14-0, it means UMNO and BN are finished. Otherwise, with a score of 14-0, Najib should have declared elections yesterday.
There’s a rumor in town, with the story that Najib went to see his personal doctor to examine the constitution of his brain. As you know, the brain is divided into 2 sides- the left side and the right side.  When the right side was examined- the doctor explained, I am afraid sir, nothing is right there. Momentarily disturbed, Najib asked-What about my left? I am afraid I have even more frightful news sir- there is nothing left there.
Let’s get back to the FGV listing for one more time. The initial idea was mooted by CIMB. Ethos Consulting was brought in as global project coordinator. They brought in the Calvary- Hay Group, Boston Consulting, Aeon Hewitt and maybe more. Najib’s current world is pretty much constructed by consultants at the moment. They provide him with the idea and he goes out there to promote what he thinks are earth-shattering ideas. By the way, if readers are interested to read about the make-believe world consultants construct, they may want to read House of Lies.
The FGV listing has all the hallmarks of becoming a minefield for Najib. An increasing number of FELDA people are becoming more skeptical by the day. It’s dawning on them; they are being deceived into believing that all this is done for their wellbeing.
Most of us laymen are interested to know- whether this listing will benefit FELDA settlers in the end. In the end- the UMNO people will go around town defending the listing by saying, settlers don’t lose anything. We are not touching your own landed property. Those people who are entitled to land titles will get theirs. The others, as soon as they pay up, will also get theirs. So there’s nothing to worry.
Where will the settlers sell their ffbs( fresh fruit bunches) ? The mills and crushing plants are now owned by FGV. They sell their produce there. The purchases will now be done more stringently. FGV mills will ensure the exact measure of extraction rate and also make sure; fruit bunches meet quality control requirements. The future is one with long drawn out frictions. Even at the time when FELDA owns all its mills and plants, settlers dispute with FELDA, what more when the mills and plants aren’t owned by FELDA any longer? There are always 3 areas of disputes and contests. Settler battle FELDA over issues of (1) extraction rate of FFBs (2) payments for replanting and (3) payments on felled rubber trees.
FGV will ditch the settlers in the end to avoid having to contend with these issues. Investors don’t want suppliers with issues and litigations. Settlers will no longer get any preferential treatment from FGV as it is now a purely private business. Settlers will find themselves as just one of the many suppliers.
The politically relevant point to me is the fact that FELDA people get only 5.5% of the 2.18 billion shares offered for sale. So there goes the pompous proclamation that we care for the FELDA folks. The FELDA people are going to pay for the shares. They have to pay almost RM4000 for 810 units of shares.  Good if they can get RM 3 premium per share. They make RM 2000 over profit. Can the price stay long at RM 7.55(giving them a RM 3 profit per share)?
The price stays long if the fundamentals are there. You can’t sustain the price artificially by casino-ing the market. The big boys will want to recoup what they spent quickly what more with the uncertain future of the Najib government.  They are jittery. The Singapore diplomats who witnessed firsthand the Bersih 3.0 recently wanted to verify things because they want to prepare for eventualities. They are pragmatic people who are not beholden to UMNO and BN for anything.
Because they also know how to read in between the lines. By the way, the origins of the expression `read in between the lines’ came about when the spies of George Washington wished to send messages to each other. They would write secret information in invisible ink in between the lines of normal written material. Recipients would have to apply some kind of chemical concoction to make the hidden messages visible.
So, when people read in between the lines, they see trouble in Pekan. Local folks in Pekan are up in arms because Najib’s people are bringing in thousands of new citizens in Pekan and giving them land. The natives have to wait generations to get titles to the land they applied. Every acre of land given up to the Khmers, the MYanmares and whoever, means one acre less for local people in Pekan. That means Najib does not trust Pekan people. He has reasons to because in 1999, the PAS candidate came within 241 votes of unseating Najib son of Abdul Razak.

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