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Sakmongkol ak 47

Thursday, 28 June 2012

FGV= UMNO's Con-porate Agenda.

Just when they thought it’s safe to get into the water. The sakmongkol shark is out hunting again. this time it is accompanied by another stealthy hunter, the sea dwelling t-rex walla. This clinical dissection of the scam which UMNO is pulling with the FGV listing is done by Walla.
Here’s Walla on the FGV con-porate listing:-

This IPO is supposed to be the second biggest in the world after Facebook. Yet of all the thousands of investment bank analyst reports out there over the last one year, only three have been published on FGVH and only in this month. The houses are Affin, TA and ECM Libra. Their reports are perfunctory on both the investment risks and value proposition of this listing.
 What about the big investment banks? If the deal is so good, why are they exhibiting a mystifying silence? Perhaps they have concluded as much as Profundo(
 In fact, you can search high and low and yet not be able to pin down even one communication by Najib's own Umno propaganda organ on how the listing can really benefit our Felda settlers and their families in the long run. There's no recognition of their effort and sacrifice on land they have worked for generations in the last fifty years. In fact, it looks like they have been bulldozed over. Doesn't that look familiar, if one still remembers all the past big projects?
That is why Sak's series on Felda is very important to both the settlers and their families. His posts have exposed how Najib's Umno government is going about trying to get the rakyats' money for its own cronies and political objectives. Except that this time it is doing so through assets of their state governments and deposits of their pension funds.
The deal is bad. Even before listing, it is announced the overseas downstream operations will be restructured. Why wait until listing to restructure what have been bleeding overseas investments for years now, you can ask next. And how much restructuring can one do until listing day in order to create a sense of positive change that can be translated into investor confidence, your next question is already on your lips even before this sentence is completed.
In fact, the thought would have occurred to you faster but you were already engaged wondering how Najib can only now talk about abolishing taxi license monopoly when our taxi drivers have been enslaved by Umno's cronies for years.
Next. The one thing you can't miss that leaps out at you from the numbers in the prospectus is how disproportionate are the share allocations. The settlers get a pittance while Umno-linked organizations get the mother lode. And Umno has the nerve to say the listing will unlock value. FOR WHO, YOU CAN NOW ASK WITH UNFEIGNED SCORN.
It is also because the share distributions have already been pre-assigned that this listing is standing at the cliff.
 A good listing should have majority free float shares to flex price elasticity. The understanding now is that most of the shares are forced onto the pension funds like the civil service pension fund and the EPF as well as selected state governments, agencies and cornerstone investors.

 It has also been mentioned some of them will be embargoed by a moratorium not to sell their allotted shares for six months after listing.
 So how many free float shares will there be for the market to sell and buy in the weeks after listing?
If one cannot sell, there is no demand to buy. Without demand to buy, the price won't stay up for long. Any euphoria will evaporate very quickly because the pricing momentum of an IPO bull run will fizzle out once buyers realize it's already a wired deal favoring selected shareholders. And just by looking at the size of the wired shares, people will conclude as much.
 So if the share price falls after listing, those pension funds and state governments involved will lose the value of their investments which means the dividends they can afford in years to come that should be given to their own shareholders, namely the rakyat and civil servants, will also be much less, in addition to subpar shares they will be holding that locks in their own liquid and solid assets. With such an opening record, it would take a miracle for the share price to leap up even six months later.
 Share prices leap up in anticipation of gain. For mining companies, announcement of new finds, for banking houses, realization of forecast profits, for construction companies, development of land and large-sized building contracts in burgeoning economies. But for listed plantation companies? Only if the demand for their agro-products is sustainably high that will earn them high profits to reduce their debt overhangs while affording funds for expansion of their production.
In the case of Felda, the market is tepid, the debt is high, the asset needs massive replanting which has a long gestation period to produce yield, new competitors are ramping up with bigger land banks to change the entire market dynamics, and past diversification projects have not derived high profits, only bad losses.
Notice that the state governments and civil servants will also be affected this time from what is considered a federal project.
 Let us close the loop. Let us make a raw assumption that there is no moratorium on the favored shareholders. In other words, let's assume they can sell immediately upon listing. The question then remains - sell to who?
Let's say those Umno-linked organizations unload all the 1,900 million shares onto a market which has 273 million shares held by the public and Felda settlers and staff. In the passive and conservative investment climate, where is one going to find enough buyers to sponge up those 2,173 million shares and avoid the perception there is a run on the listed vehicle which will vertically drop the price?
Therefore, does one honestly think the price won't go into a tailspin? If and when it does, how are our Felda settlers going to service the bank loan they have had to take to pay for their shares now worth peanuts? That RM15,000 payoff will already be consumed by then; the KPF new dividends won't amount to much either.
 So we have a situation that the price is going to be affected by big chunks of Umno-linked shareholders who either can't sell for six months, or can sell but have no buyers. Can the price stay up in such a situation? If the price cannot stay up, what is the worth of those 810 shares to the settler?
 Thus the situation before us is like Umno trying to get the tail to wag the dog. In our local jungle, that's getting the tail to wag the elephant.
It remains to ask whether Najib's Umno knows what it is doing. Looking at Umno's record of running national finances these past few years, a chorus of no's seems imminent.
You can already draw rich hints of palpable window dressing from Refsa's exposure of Pemandu's massaged numbers for ETP. The RM190 Billion of ETP projects is now found out to be only RM13 Billion for 2011; in addition a wafer-fab plant is said to be up when its investor company is already belly-up. That figure of only RM13 Billion looks remarkably like what Miti would have gotten by way of inbound investments a year so it looks like taking credit for other peoples' work. In this case, those inbound investments have gone into the states of Selangor and Penang. Oops.
Thus Umno's spin of numbers cannot be trusted. This political animal is just playing musical chairs with your money. It covers one loss using bonds issued just for the purpose. When those bonds mature, it will issue another bond to pay up the maturity of the previous bond so the net effect is just passing debts to future generations. Debts are a reflection of bad management and leakage. If management has integrity, corruption would not happen.
 The con-porate shareholders of tomorrow's FGVH will be the driver of Felda's operations. Motivated only by profit and growth, they will marginalize our Felda settlers even more. As Sak has clearly pointed out, there are ways those urban shareholders can push policies that affect the livelihood of the settlers, the costs of their purchases, and the conditions under which they have to operate daily. The market is sentiment-agnostic. It doesn't care for people and what they have to go through to eke a living or how much a piece of land they have worked on for fifty years has more than assignable commercial value. They don't care about lifeblood, just what to do to cut a bigger profit for themselves. The settlers will have no voice in the matter. By that time, their cooperative will be made obsolete.
This is not fair. This is unjust. Especially to poor, honest, hardworking and simple folks.


bruno,  28 June 2012 at 03:43  

Dato,first let us ask ourselves why do the Umnoputras,their cronies and the fancy consultants and underwriters line up the cornerstone investors.Then they have to forced the GLC's and state gomens to subscribed to the shares.

If a reataurant has a good menu and the food are delicious,even if it is a bit expensive the customers will come.Even food gluttons will travel half the world to taste the food.

Just ask the fatso Andrew Zimmerman from bizzare foods.He will swear to that.Not only that,his tastebuds will be wriggling and saliva dripping like a steady stream of water like a hungry horse.Even the sharks will walk on land just to get at the food.

But in the case of FGVH,investors who have a bit of commonsense can figure it out that it is a fox house.Once they entered they will be gobbled up.Just wait.When the foxes get their filthy hands on the money from the IPO they will buy a chicken farm and eat up all the chickens.

bruno,  28 June 2012 at 07:02  

Dato,today FGVH will have a tough time going over RM5.25.Therefore even if it exceeds RM5.25,it should closed below RM5.25 or maybe even below RM 5.00.My best bet will be below RM5.00.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 08:15  

Dear Dato Sak

It's really incredible what these ruling regime con men are capable of doing.

They are even willing to harm their political base greatly in return for short term gain!

It really looks like a case of
"grab all you can before the political ship sinks".

Phua Kai Lit

nick 28 June 2012 at 08:36  

UMNO being fair even to the Malays? Not a chance! We have seen over decades that UMNO has never been fair to anyone, not the Malays, not the Chinese, not the Indian, kadazan, Iban, and other original people of Malaysia. UMNO people only think about themselves and their wives and children and of course their cronies, who are charged with concealing and covering their massive ill-gotten wealth. Heck, they don't get to be billionaires who can afford to buy a brewery conglomerates worth RM2.9B by being fair to the poor people of Malaysia. No way Jose or should I say "no way Miguel, San Miguel!

If we take a look at most of the massive infrastructure project done by UMNO (initiated and started by mahathir, later followed by AAB and Najib) over the past 3 decades such as Putrajaya, KLIA, PLUS, PKFZ, KLCC, LRT, SMART but useless tunnel, Mahathir's brilliant idea of a crooked bridge and najib's fictional "sekejap ada sekejap takde" Merdeka towers and his "grab and run" thieving masked as "the second largest listing after Facebook " FGVB, all of them are created and geared not for the people but for the full profit potential of the companies deign "blessed and lucky" enough to be bestowed with the privilege and not to forget at the expense of the people themselves!

NO, UMNO will never be fair to Malaysia and never will. Why? It is simple really. To be an instant billionaire like many of those in UMNO, they cannot be fair or just or honest or even a muslim. No siree! To become billionaire in just a few short years, UMNO people have to con, abuse, steal, misappropriate, bribe and worse of all be traitorous to the people and the country. UMNO is corruption and on that subject, who ever heard of corrupt people being fair or just or honest?. Or the better question would be "is Mahathir a fair person, just and honest in his conduct"? What about Abdullah AB? Najib? Rosmah, Rais Yatim, Hishamudin, Nazri, Zahid, jamil Khir etc, are all of them fair people, Just and honest? All together now "NOOOO"! UMNO is not fair and neither will it be honest and just to the people. UMNO is all about the profit, the RM, the yacht, the private jets, the overseas property, the Swiss bank account, the luxurious holiday with exclusive shopping spree included and all at the expense of the poor people of Malaysia. UMNO is not Malaysia and UMNO is not the people. UMNO in fact is a disease. Nothing more, nothing less!


Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 08:53  

I am not bumi but I find it highly objectional that all this complicated manouvre of Felda and there is so little about really fixing Felda's performance. Not only is a lot of money needed, a lot of have changed structurally - difficult changes. YET, only a very small amount of the money raised is going into the company AND the structural solution is vague like 'strategic partner with Louis Dreyfus and Vitol'.

The whole exercise should have been about 1) replanting of the aging trees 2) developing other types of business. But all there is are footnotes.

In other words, even if the fantasy becomes real, it will take too long for it benefit existing Felda settlers - meaning it will never even come close.

This whole exercise was driven really about vote buying first and foremost - everything else is packaging - sophisticated and even real but its still packaging. For Felda settlers, its really unjust given such a valuable asset and very personal attachment to those assets.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 09:26  

I am done. Unload at RM5.40. for RM0.85 sen premium. At this price, Felda settler gets RM688-RM200 = RM488 less interest. Felda CEO gets RM170,000 out of his 200,000 shares. UMNO cronies who were allocated more than a million shares by MITI gets million.

bruno,  28 June 2012 at 11:18  

FGVH IPO price @ RM4.55

9.00am traded @ RM5.45 vol 65 mil
9.15am traded @ RM5.40 VOL 90 mil
9.30am traded @ RM5.38 vol 110 mil

9.45am-11.05am traded from RM5.38-RM5.28 vol 172 mil

FGVH open at RM5.45 up around 20%,mostly cross block trading among GLC's themselves.First 1/2 hr vol- 110 mil.

Next 1hr.20 min vol 62 mil.maybe GLC's gone home as volume dried up and prices drifting down to below RM5.30.Should closed below RM 5.25-RM5.00 as 5 more hrs of trading to go.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 11:38  

It's all about allocation cost for " development ", NOT benefit to the ordinary people.

Create something or anything, don't worry about taxpayers' money and ordinary people, as along as a few could become super rich instantly.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 12:00  

Dato' Sak,
Taught in SMK Dato'Taha, Gemencheh many many years ago. We had many students from FELDA Bukit Rokan as there wasn't a secondary there then. Life then for the settlers' children were really harsh as there wasn't much to do or see then. Present settlers should be 2nd if not third generation settlers therefore whatever profit/plans for FELDA, it is the settlers' welfare should be prime consideration as they are the ones who make FELDA what it is today.

bruno,  28 June 2012 at 12:11  

Dato,all the hype about a windfall.As I said earlier there is no way the prices will trade above the QD camp's expectations.And like I figure anything between RM5.00-RM6.00 will be considered a triple flop by the QD camp.

If the prices closed below RM5.00 today it will be a falling out of bed.A total flop.Hahaha,not today,maybe tomorrow or next week.

If the settlers sold at the top today,maybe enough for a good sumptous dinner feasting on Kobi beef at Sharizat's Meatworks for the settlers and family.

Our buddy QD will have to wait for his free holiday,half way across the globe to visit gramps and nanna.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 12:48  

Me too done unloading at 5.30 not so good as anonymous 9.26. If the settlers are smart, they too should unload at today, it would be a nice gain for them.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 13:50  

I agree with the facts revealed, but not the presumption of price trend, at least before GE13 because Malaysian Stock Market is the one and only one market in the world which could have price of certain shares defy gravitational pull. GLCs and selected cornered stocks can stay high and go even higher, year after year. Just look at the Petronas counters, Petronas Dagangan and Petronas Gas both having PE of 25 times with minimum growth, and Petronas Chemical with irregular profit record can attain a PE of 1000+ times and yet price continues to stay firm. Malaysia Boleh!

Quiet Despair,  28 June 2012 at 14:20  

Hey buddy Bruno. Just told the pirates that my pals and I are having celebratory luncheon of Wagyu and Kobe beef at Meatworks. You should be here with us. In conjunction with the auspicious day.
I saw short stuff Isa taller and younger today. Very rejuvenated. Maybe got himself a custom-made elevated shoes.
Anyways, my horrorscope is giving me hope today. It says there are good stars for business. Your mind will be tuned in on material matters and you will see advantages where others only see problems.
This is the time for ventures aimed at improving your status.
Yay. Amen.My ship is coming in.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 14:46  

Interesting analysis. A lot has been said about this FGV con job. However, imagine if the following will happen.

1. Cronies will try to cash out quickly to lock in gains.
2. Unable to offload before the price dips below par value/listing value, they will pledge to banks as collateral for loans and cash out in this manner. Our banking system will be overloaded with useless FGV stocks, which may bring down the financial system.
3. FELDA settlers will be forced to accelerate/increase the sales of their fruits to private millers, instead of back to FELDA mills. Which will accelerate the demise of FGV.
4. FGV will sell FELDA estates/land bank to competitors with massive kickbacks to further line drain the assets of FELDA. Or pledge these lands to banks for more funds, which they cant service. Which will accelerate the demise of FGV.
5. FELDA settler will end up as mere estate workers to FGV, and later to competitors.
6. Najib and cronies cash out and leave FGV/FELDA for the next govt to salvage (if it can ever be done) and put blame on next govt. While they smirkingly count their vast gains in their Swiss bank accounts or Labuan bank accounts.
7. The palm oil industry in Malaysia will shift to the hands of private entities. Together with the vast estates in Indonesia, these private palm oil estates will dominate over FGV in profitability and productivity, thus relegating FGV to be the world's biggest palm oil flop engineered by a ruling govt for their sole personal benefit.
8. With vast land bank, easy availability of cheap labor, govt support, numerous cash-rich and highly productive malaysian palm oil players, the global palm oil power will ultimately shift to Indonesia. Currently the bulk of downstream processing is still done in Malaysia, but will shift to Indonesia due to economics and foreseeable Indonesian govt support to support and grow their own industry.
9. In the meantime, FGV will be reduced to a global-wannabe-megalomaniac bend on conquering the world with palm oil expansion, but in actuality, FGV execs and cronies using FGV as vehicle to enrich themselves at the expense of shareholders, govt, pension funds and which ever sucker is unfortunate enough to be standing nearby, through massive corruption, kickbacks, CBT, etc, etc.

Frankly, if the FELDA settlers were smarter, they should dispose of all their assets now and enjoy their retirement. Or pull out of FELDA/FGV and go private as small time estates, in effect, breaking up the FELDA model or reverting back to the private model. They have the ground expertise and years of experience to regroup into smaller private associations/estates to be more profitable, under the wings of larger private palm oil players.

It will be unimaginable to see that if the current FELDA settlers wake up from their UMNO-infused fairy tale slumber (which may be soon if the FGV stock price falls below listing price), to the reality of their impending demise, they resort to mass destruction, poisoning of vast productive estates, etc, etc to fight back....the impending repercussions will be unimaginable to all Malaysia..!

bruno,  28 June 2012 at 19:12  

Quite Despair,

hi buddy,amid all the fanfare and hype about how well FGVH will fare in the debut,and the windfall the Felda settlers will have,it sure is a great dissapointment.That the shares closed at RM 5.32.

Having lined up cornerstone investors and forced participation of GLC's and bodeking state gomens.And having a huge bulk of shares in lock-up,having cornered the counter before the shares even started trading,and all they could come up is the shares hovering around RM5.50 before topping and settling around RM 5.32 for a meagre gain of around 18%.

Even you,buddy QD expected to make a killing for a free holiday to travel half the visit your gramps and nanna,and all you could do was ended up for a sumptuos meal at meatworks,just the same as the Felda settlers.

Like I said before the shares closing between RM 5-6 will be like a triple flop for your Umnoromic's camp.For firm believers and practitioners of Umnoromic's surely you expected much much more than that.So were you celebrating because the roil of coins wasn't enough for the plane tickets?Well,better luck next time.

For the high done at the opening it was mostly done for show only.With GLC's cross selling and buying with each other.That was the reason for the 65 million shares traded in the first few seconds.To see the high again,one will have to wait for the next bullmarket in commodities which will come around in the next 5 yrs or more,likely around 2020.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 22:09  

Sak & fellow commentators,

What truly remarkable articles this evening, writing with such diligence and passion for our beloved nation ..... the fiery tomyam m having now sure supercedes the wahyu beef as even the sharks will become vegans and crawl to eat the dressing of daun limau purut...

The light humor aside, Sak and friends, could we take walk through the following concerns together ?

1. How is the DAP / PK youth supporters and members' ( the 1st part of the Y gen ) collaboration with you, Sdr Aspan and across the board during ceramah beside sharing your articles with their parents / relatives in the Felda schemes ? in other rural areas in Kedah, Tanjung Karang, etc ?

As i can relate to the Y gen easily, may i suggest fellow new voters, put aside ones' shyness and swiftly move into diplomatic, lively, empathetic collaboration of volunteering, sharing and learning with seniors during ceramah ... it is a very effective way of touching the hearts and minds of their parents and the elderly directly in the communities.

That itself will give the youth the opportunity to learn leadership to serve in the background for their future socio- political endeavor akin to Barrack Obama and Michelle's during their university days.

2. Walla, Bruno, Nick, Keris, Unknown, etc all could join in the trip as well to be in ground zero. Followed by makan durian, manggis, pulasan, apam terbalik... Ahem, what to do.. bet QD will invite himself riding on a bullock cart in his new shining yellow heels and asphalt soles.

3. What about the org rumah of the felda settlers ? Perhaps you might want to collaborate with Mamasita to engage with them in her blog. And she is very muhibbah. i once hovered over her blog by chance. She has the genuine niceness to engage with the lady home ministers in her blog.

BTW, she needs to teach the Felda ladies never to Jom snap photos with leaders or be dazed by Taib Mahmud, or his surrogate brother, George Chan's respective new trophies.. not even if the trophies come riding on a pink flying Cadillac and feeding each sugar cane lovey dovey in public ?? Taking snapshots is real outdated, the easiest and ineffective way to get " clown actor/ actress leaders" ! Take it hard, be indifferent, one will get the nicest of character and intelligence one for keep haha !

4. Is there a Pro ABU blog for our Malay, Indian, Chinese youth, definitely not the Jom Heboh type ... where they could engage and discuss issues in English and Bahasa, perhaps trilingual in their lingo .... not highly critical thinking with wicked sense of humor, flair and finesse like us, haha.

Salam, Merci.

Anonymous,  28 June 2012 at 23:50  

Sak & fellow Pro PK supporters,

BTW during ceramah, prospective elected political leaders and each one's spouse must be decisive to enhance one' favorable behavior, speech, choice of words, intercultural sensitiveness, code of dressing and body language.

The more experienced need to be the stabilizing influence that helps the youth, both ladies and men, regardless of age must behave with diplomatic professionalism, approachable and humble on political stage or during socializing if they want to be taken with respect by the discerning rakyat and the media.

Allowing youth with outstanding and approachable leadership to conduct a few sessions of training on the area for themselves and with follow – up. Finally evaluate the effectiveness together. And eliminate anything that carries labiality.

Anon,  29 June 2012 at 00:23  

Dato, Walla is being too polite to refer to the political animal playing musical chairs with our money. Everyone knows what this, new capital raised to pay for old debt, is popularly known by. It's the 'P' word, and many of us are clearly pissed off this time not because it happened at all but because of the conspiratorial manner in which the whole listing job was engineered from within and outside the country. The sheer audacity to proffer only 2.5% to the very community which struggled for 50 years only to be forced to allow outsiders to create an entity specifically to exclude them is plainly unjustified, unfair and oppresive. The new feudal masters, more at home in lounge suits than in the unique baju Melayu, and while always ready to defend bangsa dan agama, will not hesitate to put that aside and then take more than their fair share of anything that will allow them to pursue their new life-style.

Life is immensely profitable for 21st Century Malaysian city folks!

bruno,  29 June 2012 at 01:31  

Dato,the IPO's over.And what do the settlers get.If they sold their shares yesterday,minus overheads each would have made around RM500.And all the hoohaha and dancing like chimpanzees for nothing.

Luckily Uncle Jib promised the settlers RM15,000 or else they will go camp outside his official residence and makan nasi kandar and litter all over his compound.

Had the shares closed 30 cts lower,I would able to make fun of QD,but lucky him,he got away.QD just make enough to have Kajang beef satay.He tried to con me,saying he went to compliment Shahrizat at her meatworks,but my eagle friends saw him at the Kajang satay stalls.

Even QD did not wait for the windfall and cash out enough for kajang satay.Smart boy our QD.He always says nice things about his uncles Jibby and Isa,but inside he has doubts and suspicions about them.Must have learn from his gramps and nanna.

Anonymous,  29 June 2012 at 05:43  

oops sorry for the typo error:

should have been,
i. both intercultural sensitiveness and cross - cultural sensitiveness
ii. liabilities

haha Bruno, QD's lying exposed by eagle friends

Quiet Despair,  29 June 2012 at 08:07  

Wow Bruno, we are really soul friends. You seem to know my every movement. Yes tonight we are having Kajang satay. Yesterday did lunch at Meat Works as it's near my office.
Believe me I will earn some money from my shares to go visit my grand-parents. Worse comes to the worse, they will send their eldest and pet grand-son a return ticket.
Gramps sure missed my company for fly fishing and ball games.
I am optimistic when I see Uncle Naj last night waxing lyrical about the debut of the second biggest share in the world.

Anon,  29 June 2012 at 08:56  

Playing musical chairs, ha, ha. Mathematicians would read this as building another Hilbert's Hotel Infinity: one can have a hotel with infinitely many rooms; a new guest arrives, checks in Room 1 and previous guest in Room 2 checks into Room 3 and so on. In fact an infinite number of guests could check in with the earlier guests shifted further away- there is a room for everyone. No problem at all. It's both real and surreal!

Real because one really gets the feeling that one has made it in life and now settling down to enjoy the fruits of earlier hard times, but surreal because one seems to be in perpetual motion - ever moving on looking for the proverbial 'durian runtuh' and that, was not even a self-made decision but one that came from the significant other 'sebangsa, se agama dan se perjuangan.'

Harapkan pagar, pagar makan padi, dan sekarang sawit pun ditelan. Jom sayang, mari kita beli satu lagi Birkin.

May we continue to live in interesting times.

Anonymous,  29 June 2012 at 18:46  


Someone brilliant amongst us said FGVH is the world's second largest IPO after Facebook before it was reported in the Star today 29/6. Look at the Cornerstone investors - foreign capitalists, the certainty of Mahathir's proxies setting up offices in Hongkong, joint ventures in Qatar, bla bla Malaysia Boleh !

Anonymous,  30 June 2012 at 20:34  

well said Nick.

umno is about controlling putrajaya and accummulate wealth among themselves and cronies.

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