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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Post GE13 political scenarios


Part 2.
I will answer by way of an article the comment sent by Orang Kampung on my previous article. Hopefully it will be done in a few days.
For now, as I promised I want to clear off the second installment of my article on this topic. In that article, I suggested that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has to step in in the interest of the country.
When I wrote the first part, I was serious. I said Anwar does a Sivaji the Boss stunt. Like in one of the Tamil Movies, he hurled a knife towards an oncoming speeding bullet. The knife slices the bullet into two. One hits UMNO and Najib. The other hits BN. the knife on its own momentum, hits Anwar’s former mentor turned number 1 nemesis, Dr Mahathir. Anwar gets his revenge after all. He vanquishes his political enemies.
Who is Mack the Knife? (Sung by Louis Satchmo Armstrong)
Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear
And it shows them pearly white
Just a jackknife has old MacHeath, babe
And he keeps it, ah, out of sight
Ya know when that shark bites with his teeth, babe
Scarlet billows start to spread
Fancy gloves, oh, wears old MacHeath, babe
So there's never, never a trace of red

Except here the knife is symbolism. Who is Mack the knife? In about 2 months’ time Anwar may perhaps be a special guest to the government at Bamboo River. So physically he may not be there jumping up and down at the Palace gates. Not he, but a trusted person waves the paper that contains the list of MPs who backs him as the PM. He will insist, the choice of PM can be done this way, since precedence has been created in Perak. The MPs whose names are in the list waved are also at the gates. They all have travelled in buses provided free by businessmen eager to ingratiate themselves to the new rulers of Malaysia. But that person who probably has no stature and standing is refused entry. The AG who is inside in audience with the King in the presence of the Chief Secretary of the government informs the King, the test of support of the majority of MPs must be tested in a parliamentary sitting. So, the paper waved is useless unless parliament sits.
The Agong for the first time will be truly tested. The country cannot afford to not have a constitutionally established government. He will need to use his discretion to decide, who he and his brother rulers regard as the person who has the credibility and support to form the next government. The interest of the country now overrides anything else. He will only see the person whom he thinks command all round respect.
Anwar may have underestimated the technicalities of forming a new government. He can’t bulldoze his way around and does an Arab Spring or whatever consisting of a series of street demonstrations and the like. He must now realize, his earthly salvation lies in the hands of other people.
The big 3- PKR, PAS and DAP must direct themselves to this possibly. They must collectively address the issue who is their collective leader, the person with the stature, the experience and who possesses sufficient credibility to become PR’s leader.
Anwar and PKR must acknowledge the bigger picture. His salvation may indeed depend on this humbling reality. In the absence of Anwar, who shall be the next PM? Would Azmin fit the bill? Despite being the PKR number 2, public perception is he is still Anwar’s special assistant. Raw untested and even impetuous.  I don’t think PAS and DAP accept Azmin as PM.
PAS leaders may have the moral credibility or even the secular skills to govern a modern secular state- but will be undermined by the image of conservatism. That image, by way of unsophisticated reasoning, conjures yet another image of a nation forced to slide back on the scales of progress. DAP is a political realist. With 65% of the population here being made up of Malays, DAP accepts the impossibility of having a non-Malay as PM.
After GE13, the 3 of them will sit down to negotiate the details. Anwar can’t force the issue since, although a secular and progressive party, between them, PKR does not command the bigger number of seats. PKR can’t do it alone- they need PAS and DAP.
When push comes to shove, everyone must be realist. Can a person who probably is in jail become a PM? Can a person with an image problem be PM? We will be defending a person who is stung by accusations of all sorts of moral depravities all of which suggests moral weaknesses. That alone will eat away Anwar’s credibility at this time around. He has to take a sabbatical to recuperate.

34 comments:

OneMalaysian,  13 December 2011 at 11:22  

Dear Sakmongkol

Perhaps you have checked with constitutional lawyers; I did not. But from memory, the day after the elections the president of UMNO goes to the Istana to be sworn in as the new PM. Several days later, the cabinet is sworn in after the usual wrangling for ministerial posts. Parliament does not formally sit until the Agong opens it in an elaborate ceremony. And this happens much later after the elections and swearing-ins are over. We might remember that in Sarawak, immediately after the state elections, just before midnight, Tiab Mahmud, in order to avoid having to deal with Najib and Muhyiddin who were still in Kuching, slipped out to the state istana to be sworn in by the Governor. The state assembly was not sitting yet.

So I do not think there would be a constitutional dilemma for the Agong if he were to let in the petitioner jumping up and down outside the new palace gates, with some 111 newly-elected MPs behind him. In fact he is bound to let him in whether he is from BN (as was done the past 9 or 10 times) or PR if he is convinced this person can command a majority in Parliament. But who might this person be, if he is not Najib (or God forbid, Muhyiddin)?

There are 3 possibilities. He is Anwar alias Sivaji the Boss. He might be a stand-in from PR, and no one quite knows who he might be because PR only has one credible name. And he might well be Tengku Razaleigh.

If PR wins, Anwar is the shoo-in. This one is a no-brainer. If he goes to Bamboo River, PR will put in a stand-in, like they do in movies when a stunt man stands in momentarily for the real star. His name is really not important because the PR game plan is to immediately petition the Agong to give Anwar a royal pardon, and constitutionally the Agong will oblige on advice from this no-name stand-in PR PM. So Anwar gets a change of clothes and drives into the Palace to be the real PM.

Under what circumstances might TR have a real chance to be the next PM? I think the best way is for him to show some commitment for change by joining PR with his little merry band of BN grandees. This way, if Anwar goes in, there might arise enough voices within PR to say let TR be PM (a betrayal of sorts, but hell, politicians are pragmatists). But if TR stays in UMNO, I think his chance is gone. If PR can win without him they will not hand him the ultimate reward. Would TR be a better PM than Anwar? Ah, that’s a hard question to answer, but my own bet is that Anwar is likely to be a more transformational figure than TR, and at this point in our history, he might be just the man, although longer term he would probably not make such a good administrator – horses for courses, they say.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 12:34  

I agree with OneMalaysia....

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 12:56  

Saiful's sperm was found and extracted from his arse. A lot of people will end up in hell, notably the trial judge, if they do convict Anwar this time around.

Why,,,why..why Najib has a more serious image problem than Anwar and he is the PM. Najib is both implicated in the 'Altantuya murder and the Sukkhoi and Scorpene corruption scandal. If PR gets to form gov't, all these will be reinvestigated lah. Failure to investigate properly and failure to prosecute najib for these offences is itself a criminal offence under the Penal Code.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 13:03  

SAk,

Then again come Wan Azizah to lead, but this time a big picture.......



AMIN

troubadour 13 December 2011 at 13:11  

Good day Dato'

Have a look at:

http://wandering-troubadour.blogspot.com/2010/02/razak-hypothesis.html

The bigger objective is about making this country a nation we all are proud of once again. You may have big time grudges with Anwar, glaringly evident from all your writings touching the man as a subject, but you also agree for now that the PR only has him as the main uniting factor. I agree that there is this transition period that we have an issue to deal with. I am sure PR is very aware of this if not already discussing in details as to how to deal with such an issue when it comes.

I wrote satirically in my blog some time ago on this subject but if I, a layman as far as politics is concerned, am aware of such a situation arising in the future, I am quite sure seasoned politicians are very aware of this.

Be that as it may, however well we plan, we must remember that Allah is the best of planner. If Anwar and all of us including you (who hates him so much) are sincere in changing this nation's well being, insyaAllah we can overcome the worst of situations.

I am in Thailand, a country hit by enormous flood but they will recover damn fast. It is a minor setback only. They are able to recover because as a nation they are governed by a bunch of politicians bent on seeing their country succeed. This benevolent behaviour is absent totally from lawmakers from BN side with exception of a minority few, the like of Saifuddin, the deputy education minister perhaps.

I hope I will live to see this nation prosperous again and free from corruptions of the highest order.

Cheers mate.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 13:11  

In terms of hierarchy, for PR, the choice for PM

1. Anwar
2. Wan Azizah
3. Nurul Izzah
4. Tengku Razaleigh..

Then it becomes a problem..

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 14:08  

friend- all of us are guessing. its a number game n no one knows the actual outcome now.only the results announced will put all forecasts n guesses aside.now its time to work hard to deliver the messages to the voters>>

azmie 13 December 2011 at 14:10  

this would be an interesting scenario to see. the kings did it in terengganu and perlis, let see if it can happen at istana negara. time to choose: the country or some schmuck

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 14:23  

Dato'

Whatever the Scenarios that you and others wish to paint, the Overriding Factor which the Country mot urgently NEEDS now is simply CHECKS AND BALANCES....

The only person who appears to be effectivey doing that on the country's finances is the Auditor General (and perhaps understandably under immmense pressure from the wrongdoers)

These CHECKS AND BALANCES should not only encompass the Economy but all Facets of Malaysian Life including religion.

Malays should not feel that they have the ultimate right over Morality just because they are Muslims.... I have known Many many Non Muslims whose Morality is well above the Ulamaks and Gurus. So don't assume otherwise.

Having DAP, PAS and PKR provides the best formula for these checks and Balances and of course there has to be discussions and tolerance towards each other....

BN's formula no longer works, for it is the Arab Style UMNO Big brother Formula. We have seen how that has ended up in the Middle East. The Shiites were Suppressed in Iraq although they were the Majority, but look at what has happened...The majority will still be the dominant force in the country, so Malays need not fear. Still it does not give the right for the majority to ignore the needs of the rest of the population.






BonJourno




BonJourno

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 14:42  

Dear Sakmongkol,
TR should be written off as a PM material when he returned to UMNO Baru.Anuar,whom you are holding a big grudge against,has the best credential for the job.Isn't BN and UMNO Baru PMs whom you are so beholden to are saturated with all sorts of scandals and abuses of power.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 15:01  

Come what may but Najib and UMNO must be kicked out.

sakmongkol AK47 13 December 2011 at 15:03  

anon 14:08

friend- you are guessing from kopitiam shops. my guess is founded on slightly better establishments. so don't go one upmanship on me ya friend.
i will answer the vermin who accuses me of having big grudges against Anwar. my backside is still pristine so no grudges.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 15:05  

TR may come into the picture only if there is a hung parliament.
Even thought TR is PM material I will not want Pakatan to give the job on a silver platter unless shos where he stands before the elections.
He just cannot contest as an UMNO candidates and then hope Pakatan to win majority seats for him to cross camp.
Pakatan has done a good job all along and the PM's job must go to one of them.
Anwar is my choice. Forget about those sex scandals. I don't believe them.
Najib has a worse record of being linked to Mongolia.

saiful and Lee,  13 December 2011 at 15:17  

I think TR is the best as he is is with high magnanimity. He has the respect from all walk of Malaysians.

But would TR accept the position with PR?

He should be the one to be at the helm. We want a Malay leader with the heart for the people. Only TR has it.

This is my dream...and do remember I am not dreaming.

acura,  13 December 2011 at 15:34  

As someone with no party affiliation, I'm unhappy with current government but at the same time, do not fancy Anwar taking over.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 16:39  

As usual, your article is well presented.......easy to read and digest, and logical. Well done and Keep it up, mate.

john brown,  13 December 2011 at 16:47  

bro ariff,
mark my words - bn will still become the government, provided ds najib manage to clean up umno and bn! what would you say if pm were to nominate you again as a winnable candidate for umno?

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 17:40  

Don't be too cocky about your "better establishment" sources. Whenever we speculate on POSSIBLE future political scenarios it is better to admit that "Man proposes but God disposes".

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 18:08  

I still believe anwar is sabotaged in many ways...he has credentials....he was in the world bank and IMF (if I'm not mistaked), he was perceived as the modern islamic leader...have u seen his writings before? brilliant....but he WAS in UMNO...it's hard to trust him...but i think after 12 yrs of embarrassment, i strongly believe he has become much better and no more an UMNOputra...we have come to the extent of ABU...let's see what he can do...if UMNO can go out, i'm sure we can get rid of anyone if we ain't happy about them...see you in Penang this weekend ;)

salam,
voter

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 18:45  

''We will be defending a person who is stung by accusations of all sorts of moral depravities all of which suggests moral weakness. That alone will eat away Anwar’s credibility at this time around''

Dear Sak, I beg to differ with your opinion on Anwar. The more they sting accusations of all sorts on Anwar, the stronger his credibility will be among the thinking Malaysians.

A for TR, I have a feeling that he will not be selected to contest in the coming GE13 if Najib sees him as a possible transition PM. So TR will be out of the equation.

I agree with oneMalaysian that the transition will only be a minor hiccup. Whoever takes temporary charge is no big deal.

Pok Li

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 19:42  

If ever PKR become the Goverment in Malaysia, I am sure Malaysia will still have racial descrimination. By reading all in the blog is enough to tell all that. The truth is the truth....please ponder deeply....

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 19:48  

I wonder do PKR and the people of Malaysia really want Malaysia to be manage excellently. Ramai yang "sendiri masuk bakul dan sendiri angkat" termasuk ramai rakyat rakyat Malaysia yang sokong PKR.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 20:28  

Remember what Ku Li says "if you see no more people in Semangat 46 you can count that only me will be left standing holding the Semangat flag" What happened next all know about it he rejoined UMNO Baru.What a let down for ordinary member like me for a leader leaving behind his loyal troops.One thing that really perplexed me is the extent of UMNO leader big and small to stay in irrespective how rotten to the core and beyond redemption the party is now.To me Anwar is the iconic figure that separate between the old Malays and the new Malays.If he is destined to be the new PM who can stop this from happening?The sodomy trial is nothing more than a fiction to most Malays old and new.Do you seriously believe that the Malay rulers will be pro-active enough to influence the inevitable political event?The issue of leadership succession is more serious than the fictional safety of one's anus.The question is whether the rakyat want change or more of the same stuff -economic plunder, abuse of powers and what not.Lay down your choice.

CYC,  13 December 2011 at 21:37  

TR is a past tense. Why must we trust only he can a good PM and not others? Get rid this kind of mentality. Experience does not necessary translate to quality. We have civil servants or pengarah who worked for more than 30 years yet don't excel at their job.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 22:01  

Dear Dato Sak

There is no reason why the next PM
cannot be a woman politician from
the Pakatan Rakyat parties.

We need a Malaysian Ellen Johnson Sirleaf to clear up the mess left by the present kleptocratic ruling regime.

Phua Kai Lit

bruno,  13 December 2011 at 22:27  

Dato,I have a name.A very well respected one too.And although he is from the DAP,he is very Malay,more Malay then the buffons and apes we presently have in the cabinet.He is Senator Tunku Aziz.

R Lai 13 December 2011 at 22:30  

Mandela was in jail for many more years than Anwar ever will. I don't see any problems with his image. As long as we believe in justice and right, in the end we will prevail.

Anonymous,  13 December 2011 at 22:45  

If PR lets TR be pm, it's like handing back the govt to BN, after all TR is in BN, and TR will have to follow BN whip. God save us.

Quiet Despair,  13 December 2011 at 23:12  

Hahaheehee. Thanks Sak you made my day. At least I can laugh after woking non-stop for the last few days.
Now I crown you joker of the year.
You are really joking, pulling our legs, or making your anti-UMNO fans here feel good.
This is the first time I see the unserious side of Sakmongkol. Good one, if it is to release stresses in your life.
Tapi kalau nak jokepun, biarlah betul. This is so far-feched. Tak masuk akal.
Macam hikayat 1,000 satu malam.
That scenario will not happen. Status quo remains. Najib and Muhiyiddin will be back as number one and two.
Al-Bontoti will languish in Bamboo River, dreaming why didn't I get Wolfowitz to put me in the World Bank.
Ku Li may not contest. If he decides to join forces with the 3rd force, it's possible he may pull in PAS and DAP to make up a government.
But that is very remote.
Mac the knife used to be my dad's favorite song. It was sung by many including Lois Armstrong but made famous by Bobby Darin.
It is about MacHeath, one of the villains in the play Three-penny Opera.
Don't think Ku Li wants or is inclined to the villain in this late stage of his life.
He was once but Semangat 46 was buried unceremoniously.
Takkan nak pisang berbuah dua kali.

P.S. Bullet si Anu tu cartoon macam dia. Cut into two kena Najib and BN. But one richoceted to Dr M. LOL.

wok leh budu...,  13 December 2011 at 23:25  

Oh for heaven sake...fuck TR..i'm a kelantanese and we don't give a damn about TR anymore... this guy has played safe and led his supporters every which way to nowhere...TR is NO HERO. and what's wrong with PAS president to be the next Malaysian PM? he's a more moral and trustful guy than the lot of other damaged goods in PKR or BN...

GoldTrex 13 December 2011 at 23:42  

Dato Sak

Did UMNO and Dato' Mukhriz (DM) read your brainwave?

I cannot think of a reason why DM had proposed UMNO leaders - meaning ministers, MPs and potential MPs -- sign loyalty pledges, at the just concluded PAU.

How about this scenario -- UMNO and BN MPs walk over together with TR -- to form a camp that could form a coalition with PR?

Now that would not that be very interesting (to us) and very threatening (to UMNO).

What will trigger this scenario? A hung parliament. If this happens - the probability for TR to go into the palace, carrying with him a long list of names of just elected MPs -- is almost 1.0

Let us see!!

bruno,  14 December 2011 at 03:12  

Quiet Despair,

Hi buddy,how about
Senator Tunku Aziz(DAP) for PM.
MP Nurul Izzah(PKR) for DPM.
Then come GE14th,Tunku Aziz will retire from politics and Nurul will be the next PM.Then QD will have to relocate back to his land of his birthright,the suburbs of Alaska,USA,land of the free,where women's rights was born.

Kampong man,  14 December 2011 at 06:03  

This is the problem with PR coalition.It does not have a credible and a respectable leader to lead them.DSAI is a definite no no PM material hence your promotion of TR in your past articles.When TR set up his NGO it was a vehicle for him and other key members, Ong Tee Kiat included, to voice their opinions on the poor state of affair and a deteriorating race relation in the country now due to excessive and uncontrolled writings in the alternative media in the name of freedom of expression and democracy.This is also my concern,the racial unity and racial polarisation.

No matter how much LGE prefer to have Anuar as a PR PM it will not be a popular choice for all the things that DSAI has done or not done to damage his political career.To most Malays, except for PKR supporters of course, he is doomed,period just as CSL of MCA .In fact it will be the PKR seats that will be drastically reduced in favour of UMNO in my observation.TR may be an acceptable alternative but will he has the STAMINA to lead as he is a staunch and a diehard UMNO leader.Most importantly he has his reputation at stake should he jump camp to PR.He will be like a Hang Jebat to the Malays "Menderhaka kepada perjuangan UMNO !"
Many people here may not agree including yourself Sak UMNO/BN shall continue to rule and all this hurrah and optimism for change will NOT happen and it will be business as usual ,believe me.Thanks.

Ps.Sak, i pray and doa that your mother will be in good health as i gathered he is now in Hospital Kuantan.Ameen...

AT Saari 16 December 2011 at 00:52  

Dear Sakmomgkol.
If they sent Anwar to Bamboo River, I believe it would not be necessary for anyone to be jumping up and down at the palace gate, a hung parliament would not happen coz BN will be wipe out.
Najib could probably be the one who will be jumping up and down, and so does Muhyiddin.

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