Copyright Notice

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the author, at the address below.

Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Friday, 2 April 2010

NEM- Pledges and Promises-2


NEM: Pledges and Promises.
First we are even going to say this is a not new economic model. It is essentially a collection of highlighted parts of a bigger development Plan such as RMK10. I think this is why the PM says, the model will be structured into two parts, the second being part of the 10th Malaysia Plan. He has also said, these are proposals to be incorporated in the 10th Malaysia Plan.
How do you actually create a higher cash come economy? Where people can earn as much as USD15 K per month? You have to generate super fast growth in what economic segments? What kind of products and services? What kind of industries command high value added? What are the skills required? What are the economic regimes needed? What kind of social environment? You think this isn't important? Imagine if foreign investors lived under threat from moral hit squads that invade private lives? How will the government reconcile that with its own affinity with official Islam?
But more important, a fuller embrace of the free market system would require a sea change in attitude especially from powerful sections of Malays accustomed to rent seeking mentality. Yes, those championed and articulated for by the Ibrahim Alis, and even by DR Mahathir who seems to have reneged on his own personal agenda to change the mindset of Malays. Didn't we remember that he scolded, prayed and even cried beseeching Malays to change their mindset and we also saw many of those who have benefited from the privileged conferring strategies also shed crocodile tears? These were the same people who exited PWTC later in the 7 series beemers, X5s, Hummers and Jags. This PM has to contend with this kind of people.
Here is a starting point. We have heard- and this has been said over many weeks now- that all of us have to adopt a new thinking. Ubah gaya hidup. Leave behind the old ways. Meaning eschew the NEPish way of doing things and adopt competition, free market, meritocracy based advancements etc. but once you are willing to abandon all that, what kind of guarantees and social regime will the government set in place that fosters overall confidence? You have to give assurance to a people who have been accustomed to protection and benefaction in all sort of guises, that they have something to live by with and to survive with?
Unfortunately the signals in this department aren't clear. They are not even clear to UMNO people who can be seen in droves attending the Perkasa inaugural convention. This means the PM has still to contend with his own people to make them believe in his cause. Then again, if he can identify these people who are doubting his cause to re-engineer the economic models that have been practised thus far, he can have the reasons later to leave them out from government appointments. What the PM needs is a team of unified and determined people to carry his economic reforms through.
And when it comes to disseminating information and knowledge about what the PM intends to do, I have to question what the ancient relic presiding the Ministry of Information is doing other than being suffocated in his own artful articulation of whatever fancies him at any point in time? Apo kona jang oi Rais?
I am certain, reading through the details, affirmative action of some sort will be there but its affirmative action grounded on principles of open competition, hard work and meritocracy. There are good Malays and there are bad Malays. Malays are disillusioned when other Malays pass them by because of who they are and not because of what they can do and contribute. Malays must learn that there will no longer be free lunches and that they have to adapt to a regime, where the lunch they want will have to be qualified with willingness to work, to improve themselves, using the material between the ears, on what they can do to improve themselves first.
Between this prime minister and his father who started the NEP, there is no contradiction really. The original NEP was thought of by Tun Razak as an interim measure to infuse Malays with the required values that can propel them farther. This current minister has the opportunity to make things right.
So what do we now offer those whom we are calling upon to abandon the old ways? The answer seems, once all those historical baggage are jettisoned off, we must have in place a reaffirmed commitment to the rule of law. Rights are protected by law and not violated with abandon. This presupposes of course all those institutions related to the remittance of justice and implementing the laws must be sterilized. We all know what this means- the judiciary must be staffed with first rate judges, lawyers and other practitioners of the law. The institutions responsible for maintaining public safety must also be spotlessly clean. You inspire public confidence when you have these and make people feel compensated after having to abandon the protective yoke which they have been enjoying under a paternalistic government.

16 comments:

Anonymous,  2 April 2010 at 10:28  

Maknanya harga Persona kat Saudi = RM 33,934
Maknanya harga Proton Gen2 kat Saudi = RM 32,256
Maknanya harga Waja kat Saudi = RM 35,673

Satu Malaysia bayar RM 66,799.97 untuk sebuah Waja di Malaysia !
RM31,126.97 lebih MAHAL!

we have high income?

Anonymous,  2 April 2010 at 10:42  

Dato, The power that be has all the resources available upon them to make what you said in the final paragraph happened. Its whether they want to that or not.

Presently, its just talk and talk and no action. They only to act on one case to show their sincerity of what they said.

Anonymous,  2 April 2010 at 14:23  

I like your ending. Najib seems to think the economy can work in isolation - that is minus the judiciary,civil service, the corrupt police force and macc and the controlled media.

Anonymous,  2 April 2010 at 15:13  

One man can make the talk. But it need hundreds and thousands to make the walk. Where are these people?

donplaypuks® 2 April 2010 at 15:18  

Even before the ink is dry on the NEW EM 200 pg. outline, Amirsham has come out to say that some aspects of the NEP will continue to be in force before the FULL (positive and desired) aims and effects of the NEM are felt in 10-20 years time.

That sound to me suspiciously like it will be some time before the rent seekers, licence ali babas, directly negotitated contracts mafia, Toll Highway & IPP profiteers and AP Kings conmen will be retired. It looks like there's still at least 5-10 years more for these thieves, looters and economy plunderers to make hay while the sun shines!

This is how good policies and intentions are undermined from within; by failing to burn of the sucking leeches now and then mollycoddling them for self interest! That, and the DPM's statement making 1 M'sia a worthless secondary issue clearly tells us that "musuh dalam selimut" still abound in the Cabinet!!

dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race

Anonymous,  2 April 2010 at 16:22  

Lorr anon 2 april 2010 10:28..

awak baru tahu ker???... kan selama ni, kita kena tanggung sebahagian harga kereta proton yang dijual kat obersee... kan MAhathir dah buat benda2 ni dari dulu lagi... kan bank2 diarahkan tarik kereta bila awak tak bayar selama 3 bulan sebab takde kerja... kan kerja awak di "Eliminate" oleh politician yang tak pandai berfikir, camne nak tolong rakyat... kan MAhathir menggalakkan rakyat "Mengkayakan kroni" MAhathir sahaja... kan MAhathir ..kan.. hehehe...

Najib tu kan kena main woyang dulu.. pasal MEB dan apa kebenda ekonomani dia tu...

...adioss....

walla 2 April 2010 at 17:44  

walla hopes someone can help solve her dilemmas on this:

"I hope to be proven wrong in thinking that the economic quagmire is in fact deeper than we are imagining.

The underlying assumption of the NEM seems to say that so long as we hit 6.5% pa growth rate every year for the next ten years, we will be able to reach high-income status.

And it is felt that this is achievable because in the past thirty years or so we had averaged about that, give or take some kinks.

My bugbear is that the growth in those past thirty years or so was shored up by subsidies which reduced prices and expanded incomes.

But in the next ten years, the NEM is mandating the reduction of subsidies. The whole justification of the NEM is to cut off subsidies except for minor bits.

So my thinking is that we cannot use past growth performance to bolster our confidence that future growth performance is achievable and this is because past had subsidies but future will not have subsidies.

I do not know whether the NEAC had factored in growth distortion by subsidies.

If it has not included the subsidy factor in its computations, then we may say the challenge ahead is not just about maintaining a steady and relatively high growth rate each year of six point five percent for a period of ten consecutive years, for if the subsidy factor is taken into account and removed from the growth rate in the past, then the past growth rate on the average may actually have been lower, perhaps 2% pa.

Which means in the next ten years, we will have two targets to achieve instead of one: first, to jump-start our economy so that the growth rate increases by say 4.5% pa from say 2% pa (without subsidy/past years) to 6.5% pa (with reducing subsidy/next two years), and then to keep the engine running at 6.5%pa (without subsidy/remaining eight years).

How does one jump-start our economy to double its rate of growth for the next two years when the present world market is still so dicey?


Next, if the NEM removes affirmative policies immediately, it has to erect with equal speed a social net, otherwise a segment of the population may fall off the circuit. But a social net for many who will no longer enjoy affirmative policy support is no different from an affirmative policy in all but name. So it is still status quo.

In other words, to pay for a social net, one must have affirmative policy revenue. All along till today, much of that has come from those who work their guts out on their own, what more against the tide of disincentives and malfeasance.

This quiet, productive and law-abiding group is leaving. It is getting smaller by the day. It is also a sizable proportion of the talent pool that the NEAC has identified as critical for the NEM growth programs of the next ten years.

So the social net will also be difficult to maintain, and its source codes will also be relocating.

Add the jump-start challenge of above, and the quagmire has actually gone done deeper than we think.

Finally, there is going to be an extra energy bill coming up within the next two years, if supply-demand projection for oil is still valid.

But it is not supposed to be valid if the NEM is to be applied - because the NEM will need us to use more oil than we can produce or buy. Which means we will be hit by a new energy bill sooner than we expect. Perhaps at the very moment we are supposed to double our growth rate.

So we have three hidden factors working against us to even achieve the first of two stages of trying to reach that NEM target growth rate."

donplaypuks® 3 April 2010 at 00:13  

Walla

"The Star reported that Malaysia's per capita income rose by 40% in 2007 compared with 2004 according to 2nd Fin Min Nor Mohamed Yakcop." refer http://tonypua.blogspot.com/2008/02/malaysian-income-rose-by-40-over-3.html.

This was in reference to R2D2FM Robokop's outrageous statement just before GE 2008!!

Therefore. I'm not sure if official Govt statistics on GDP/PCI have not been massaged and whether we are using the right base in computing these very important yardsticks for our economy.

I recently asked a well known local economist if he could provide reliable figures for M'sia's GDP/PCI for 2000-2009 taking into account inflation, US$ exchange rates (2.50 before 1999, 3.80 after that and 3.20-3.80 lately), weighted average population growth etc. His reply was that he's still working on it using RM values to avoid US$ exch rate complications!

I have a sneaking suspicion that the accurate figures for GDP/PCI will be lower than reported.

dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race

Anonymous,  3 April 2010 at 01:06  

Just read what the PM and DPM have been saying the last two days... no need to elaborate what I mean will tell you for SURE this country is in deep deep trouble...

So far no one can tell us how we can even compete with ANY country except Burma..

Anonymous,  3 April 2010 at 08:39  

Salam Dato',

Aku tertanya - tanya sampai mengigau. Apakah cara, pendekatan, kaedah dan jalan untuk meningkatkan pendapatan tinggi sebagaimana dihasratkan oleh MEP tu, aku mesti dalam KE-TERANG-KUMAN dan KE-MAP-ANAN. Disekeliling ku Kerja kurang, persaingan maha hebat, hidup begitu keras, berniaga tiada ongkos. Sementelah lagi, Graduat IPTA dan IPTS seperti IR(jurutera), AR (Arsitek) , Sr ( juruukur) dan lain nya ramai dan tambah ramai tak keroje , kalu keroje pula under paid. Namun begitu aku berharapan MEP ini akan sukses kerana ia satu lagi membuka PELUANG. Aku juga impikan Dato' dan insan sefikiran dengan dato' yang bergeliga minda nya diberi peluang mengetuai Agensi EKOnomi negara atau state,negeri dato', beri peluang 5 tahun, pasti MEP akan akan terangkum (inclusive) dan mapan ( sustain). Berpendatan Tinggi perkapita akan menjadi kenyataan. Dari posting Dato'ini dan sebelum nya memang nampak ada cara untuk merealisasikan nya.InsyaALLAH.

Maaf jika silap kat dari BENTAYAN.

Anonymous,  3 April 2010 at 18:02  

NEM is the same old BS, packaged and branded as New, Nothing new about it except an exercise OF NEW CONTRACTS TO PUT UP BUNTINGS and sign boards. SLOGAN BARU, old shit. Typically Umno's style of Wayang Kulit. Does anyone actually believe PERKOSA is not part of Umno? Perkasa = Umno= rent seekers and buayas. They will never change. What's the bet Dpm is also part of the wayang, he must have made his kow towing to the mamak, and is agreeable to a presidential council, Whatever you say about our former P.M s, none said they are Malay first, never aloud. DPM is unacceptable as a leader for Malaysia and has just lost BN a lot of votes. The Malays are not as ignorant as before, they can see what's happening? What perkosa is all about.

kuldeep 3 April 2010 at 18:14  

PM Najib is trying very hard but the guys downstream are not delivering...

And maybe he is too busy to look into details..
Take example of the recently launched "myprocurement"website..
The format is incredibly primitive almost static..with very limited search parameters.

Essentially the website should have searches by CIDB/PKK/Treasury Classification,Regions,Type of Work (tags) ..

And it should hv links to original advertisement,number of tenderers,Tender Prices (without names) and Winning Tender.Lastly it should also have Closure i.e on Issue of Cert of Completion/Final Contract Sum etc..

In this manner one can have a full history.For those seeking transparency..they can check from A to Z.For contractors,they can use the data to strategise their bids for similar works.For CIDB they can even use it as a tool to analyse construction cost...

Actually...M'sia is so far behind the curve.Other govt is talking about building relationship...developing supply chain network which is a 2 way process,,refer to UK model http://www.contracts.mod.uk

Why can't we think thru and do a better job. As it is PM launches myprocurement and everyone says BRAVO...but essentially we get zero info.

As it is there is a contract to build hostel for 200 costing RM 77mil listed in myprocurement..

AND NO ONE SEEMS TO FIND THAT LUDICROUS?

It just confirms that we are all about announcements.

kuldeep 3 April 2010 at 23:55  

In the early nineties..JKR introduced a perfectly logical tender evaluation system encompassing mgmt,track record,plant & eqpt,sources of credit and financials as a BASE criteria whether a bid is to be considered.They had roadshows to explain the system..and it was so simple and transparency personified.
And the weightage was geared towards management & track record rather then pure financials.Obviously,as one moves for bigger contracts,one needs to improve the balance sheet.
Looking back,JKR was ahead of the curve in developing supply chain partnerships.

It worked very well but obviously didn't fit in too well with the politically connected rent seekers.

Then came the period of wibawa,direct nego etc etc which probably in the longer term did more damage to the Bumi Construction industry .

My point...govt have lots of people with great brainpower but they are often asked to do the wrong things.

Tun Faisal Ismail bin Aziz 4 April 2010 at 03:39  

where is the suggestion? i dont see suggestions, only mumbling and frustration of a person. :) And i do not see there is any practical solution and how ur mumbling cd be relate to the economy of the malays and reducing the gaps between those who re successful and not..

sakmongkol AK47 4 April 2010 at 06:56  

tun aisal,

wipe out that smirk. i have not finished. be patient.

Matthew Ngai,  8 April 2010 at 20:33  

Sak, I would like to request for permission to publish this post in my facebook note page. I find this post to be particularly informative and would like to share it with my fellow friends who are interested in the well-being of Malaysia.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP