Copyright Notice

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the author, at the address below.

Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Sunday, 25 April 2010

Hulu Selangor- Sakmongkol’s final take.



 

It's written in the stars. The outcome of today's election in Hulu Selangor. Nothing that I can say, do or hope can alter what is already fated. Today, the people of Hulu Selangor will come out to vote. The parliamentary seat of Hulu Selangor has some 64.500 voters. 53-54% of the voters are Malay. 26% are Chinese while Indians constitute about 19% of the voters. Usually in by elections, voter turnout is around 80% of eligible voters.
Much as I want UMNO to win, objectively, my assessment is as follows.
In early April, I wrote as follows:-
Katalah yang keluar mengundi ialah sebanyak 80% atau lebih kurang 50,000 orang.
Bagaimana rakyat mengundi? Rakyat akan undi mengikut citarasa perkauman.
Daripada 50,000, pengundi Melayu sebanyak 26,500. Dari jumlah ini BN munkin hanya dapat 45% iaitu sebanyak 12,000.

Dari 50,000 jumlah pengundi cina yang keluar mengundi ialah 13,000 orang. BN mungkin hanya dapat 10% undi orang cina atau sebanyak 1500.

Daripada 50,000 tersebut, pengundi India hanya 19% atau 10,000.

Berapa pengudni India yang MIC mampu serahkan kepada BN? Paling kuat saya rasa 40% atau hanya 4,000 orang.


 

As I move around at the frontlines, incognito most of the time, my prediction will be as follows:-
PR will get about 55% of the Malay voters. That's about 14,000 votes. How so?
While we celebrate and make merry at the crossovers to BN- legislators here and there, former PKR women leaders and all that, those crossovers were good for morale boosters. Good hype medicine in isolation. Put in context, they mean nothing because they don't bring in votes.
The one bringing votes to PR are the ground troops. These are done through the whisperers who move seamlessly among the voters, unnoticed most of the times. The ketua kampongs, the imams, the ahsos and nyonyas who have formed 'kutu groups' among themselves and hear this- the UMNO ketua cawangans who are practicing what PM Najib has declared- people first. They have translated it to mean, their interest first- land title, free water, good governance etc. the ones getting votes are the UMNO ketua cawangans who meet Zaid Ibrahim on the side pledging support in return for immediate self gratification. The ones getting votes are the Indian achis and ayyas whom are largely ignored by Samy Vely and his people. The Chinese? They have remained politically defiant, being anti establishment most of the times.
It is against this background that the contenders go into the battleground today.
Malay votes.
In Hulu Bernam, UMNO ketua cawangans are moving around quietly to get votes for Zaid. One, because they have had enough of another Indian MP. They have had the services of an Indian MIC MP for the last 18 years- yet development in Bukit Sentosa, in Serendah is much wanting. Two, they want to get immediate gratification- titles and ownership to their land. So, they would rather work with Zaid who is from PR who can interface effortlessly with the PR government in Selangor. Three, being seasoned party men, they know, the big guns from outside are only birds of passage.
Khalid Ibrahim may be a stammerer or something like that- but he's not that stupid. He changed all the ketua kampongs who are his immediate front liners. He changed the imams and mosque and surau office bearers who are sympathetic to his government. These people consolidate the state government's legitimacy. As before, voters know, they are better off working with the state government than against it.
So, PR wins the majority of Malay votes. What about the RM5 million paid to FELDA people with more to come? Its 17 years too late and the money they received is theirs in any case not some unsolicited endowments from the government. These people bloody fought for their money.
Chinese votes.

Of the 13,000 Chinese voters, BN can hope to win maximum 30%. PR wins 70% or around 9,000 Chinese votes. Chinese womenfolk who form 'kutu groups' or financial self help groupings are conducting whispering campaigns to not vote for the Indian candidate. That doesn't mean they trust Zaid more- it's just that they don't want the Indian candidate.
PR wins another 9,000 votes amounting to a subtotal of 23,000 votes. BN has so far won 16,000 votes.
The real shocker will be the Indian votes.

As I moved around, I was surprised to see many of the operations rooms run by MIC were not running. I have not seen pictures of the MIC candidate working his magic among Indians. So where is MIC in this election? Where have all the Indians gone to? Kamalanathan appears to be disowned by his own MIC ad his Indian community.
Kamalanathan will be a pitiful sight after this. Even before the elections he is already disowned, after the elections he will be ghost of the past. He wasn't the MIC preferred choice. Mugilan was supposed to be backed and had the support of UMNO. The MIC wanted Palanivel, the man who served 18 years as MP but who accomplished nothing. He wasn't therefore UMNO's choice too. Kamalanathan is a 2nd best solution. You can't get the ivory, the horn will do.
So how will the Indian voters behave? My own assessment is that 55% of the Indian votes numbering 10,000 will go to PR. PR gets about 5500 and BN gets 4500.
With another 5500, the total votes going to PR are 28,500 and BN gets 20,500 to 21,000 votes.
Sakmongkol predicts that PR will get around 28,000 votes to BN 21,000 votes. PR wins by a majority of around 7,000 votes.
My own experience is to discount the numbers gained by the victor by 30%. This is necessary because the numbers for the victor may have been influenced by subjective assessments, in built biases and simple over optimism. If we discount the margin of the victory by 30% the majority is likely to be around 5,000 votes.
The margin of the victor is also discounted on account of the capabilities of the challenger. PKR's opponent is UMNO which leads the federal government. The federal government has coercive powers and will undoubtedly use them to the fullest. UMNO has two technologies which its opponents do not have- they can cheat and use those pieces of paper bearing the face of Malaysia's first Agong. These factors will further depress PKR's margin.
I shall say, this election will be won by PR with a majority of nearing 5000 votes. I believe PKR will win the HS seat with a majority of between 3000-5000 votes. That's the way the cookie crumbles. I am sure, in days to come; there will be much forensic post mortem on the part of UMNO.

61 comments:

Hansac 25 April 2010 at 09:58  

Finally you speak like it really is.

Greenbottle 25 April 2010 at 09:59  

oh my god (or OMG as kids these days are wont to say) you are a genius! if this holds true that is!

i dearly wish it to be so. not too long to wait now.

Estrelita Soliano Grosse 25 April 2010 at 10:01  

This is really heartening to read.

Voice of the Oppressed, Suppressed 25 April 2010 at 10:03  

That's a very intelligent and educated prediction. Even though I have never set foot in HS I quite agree with you on your estimates and assessment based on 'national sentiments'.
Money cannot buy votes for BN anymore. Media (Utusan & TVs) cannot buy votes for BN. Neither can Ibrahim Ali nor Mahathir. In fact they will drive away the votes.
But you have been to the ground and being an experienced politician I tend to believe you.
My respect for your ingenuity will go up a few notches if your predictions come true.
The problem is UMNO does not realize how unpopular it is anymore. Neither do MCA and MIC.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 10:14  

I hope your crystal ball is wrong!
BN WILL WIN!

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 10:22  

Sak'
The trouble is that UMNO thinks they are the Kings and knows best with M O N E Y !!!.They will never learn !Same old mistakes every time and its good for Pakatan to pre attempt this move!
Frank and honest answer from you!

Ranen 25 April 2010 at 10:24  

Cool ! Nuts, you have made my day. Looking forward to tonight's big party at PKR. Well done man.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 10:30  

I'm not a BN fan. I'm a Pakatan's fan. Though I'm a Pakatan's fan but I want a strong BN too. I want a BN with principle. I want a BN leader like Tun Abdul Razak, Tun Dr. Ismail, etc. Without a strong and principle BN, a two party system would not work. Malaysian will not benefit from it. Though I'm a Malaysian of Chinese descent I wish UMNO leaders with principle can lead UMNO for the sake of our country.

Lastly, I would definitely vote for UMNO that's lead by leader that stood against racism, corruption, etc.

Salam
Anak Malaysia

zul,  25 April 2010 at 10:30  

u lupa bn ada pengundi hantu...

Ahmad Syafiq 25 April 2010 at 11:03  

It's not over until the fat lady sings Pak Sakmongkol.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 11:08  

Hope you are correct.
Yang

ong 25 April 2010 at 11:16  

sakmongkol,

You wrote:-

"Much as I want UMNO to win.."

Since UMNO is not contesting, I assume you are implying that the MIC candidate is merely an UMNO tool or running dog or whatever. Fair enough because many people, myself included, also believe likewise.

Then you followed with this towards the end of your analysis:-

"The federal government has coercive powers and will undoubtedly use them to the fullest. UMNO has two technologies which its opponents do not have- they can cheat and use those pieces of paper bearing the face of Malaysia's first Agong."

You know UMNO always cheats, illegally abuses the powers of incumbency (at federal level) and practices corrupt vote buying. Yet you want UMNO to win! Is that who you really are?

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 11:20  

You're not a fortune teller!
Hope BN wins!

sakmongkol AK47 25 April 2010 at 11:27  

anon 11:20

of course i am not. but my prediction for all the previous by elections were proven true. no secret- i analyse things on the ground.

yes, i hope i am wrong this time.

Chairman Kaga 25 April 2010 at 11:35  

MUHAHAHHAHAHA
TEKAAAN TUAN WENGER MEMANG TEPAT!
HIDUP WENGER!
HE HE HE HE HE HE HE

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 11:50  

That majority for Zaid you predicted will dissipate when the phantom voters (e.g. busloads from IKBN) 'cast' their BN votes, when PR voters are prevented from casting their votes (13,000 voters relocated voting stations, barricaded orang asli)are factored into your equation.

So, yes you're wrong as you had hoped, but I rather think you really wish you are right for you as an UMNO gentleman would want your party to win cleanly, wouldn't you?

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 11:52  

PR will win not because Zaid is fantastic but because UMNO is corrupted,incompetent and arrogant.

To the rakyat of malaysia,one vote for MIC is one vote for UMNO.In order to defeat UMNO/BN,we have to get rid of MCA,MIC,Gerakan and the rest of the mosquito parties of BN.Thus MIC has to be defeated in Hulu Selangor.That's our mission.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 11:58  

Dato,

We need more educated Malay like you to speak up for true 1Malaysia.

UMNO needs to cleans up their racist stand in order to win votes.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 12:12  

all this to show that malaysian are bunch of racist minded zombies.

is being an indian a factor here?

Pak Zawi 25 April 2010 at 12:12  

Dato',
It must be very difficult for you to voice out how you feel about the situation on the ground. We all know the truth hurts.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 12:13  

It's time the country is given back to the people, listen to some of the minister the speeches.. you will hear the rakyat is a burden to the government. I hope the rakyat wins this time and in the future...and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth (Malaysia).

A Fan,Brubaker

kuldeep 25 April 2010 at 12:23  

sagemongkol

i think Umno managed well without Mic..with PM/DPM taking the mantle >> the 3000 who voted against Pali will be for Nathan this time round..

BN will come thru with a 600 majority.

A lot will depend whether the 2000 odd voters will make the 2 hours trip back to HS to vote.The reports on traffic gridlock preying hard on their minds..and question whether a vote counts when Sage have said its pretty foregone.

No..its a very very tight one >>so I am leaving for home now to make the difference.
At very least majority will be 599?

Wenger J Khairy 25 April 2010 at 12:39  

Dear Dato',
I admire you for being brave and sticking your neck out like this. For you to go for a 2k - 3k margin is like going for a 100:1 paying odds, but if the event turns out as you had predicted, then this will be a major major shocker.

Its akin to Manchester United getting thrashed 4-2 by a young Ajax side at Old Trafford.

I am taking a 50-1 odd which was to call this election for PKR some days back with a majority > 1000.

Because I believe in a scientific and proper way to make decisions (the science is called systems dynamics), I have 0 concern for anything that cannot be measured or manipulated to generate the desired outcome, and abhor any repressive, tyrannical measures used to intimidate people. That is the tactics of the stupid folk.

PM Najib is fatally flawed when it comes to decision making. That is my issue with him - his advisors are over paid, unintelligent and his penchant for the white man's mumbo jumbo will nuke him. He should trust brown men like yourself who are proven entities in reading the game and not be enthralled by the rave reviews he gets, especially if its paid for or even worse, those who fail to praise him are given the sack.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 12:52  

Voters in HS are indeed foolish if they do not support Datuk Zaid whom was appointed by BN as law minister in the aftermath of the tsunami to inclue capable/respectable leaders into the cabinet.But then the little napoleans in umno are against Zaid to rectify its weaknesses and make changes in such haste. Zaid is actually giving UMNO one last chance-take it or leave it.That's why he is now with pakatan.If Zaid is contesting in HS under BN my bet is he will win on candidate personality alone. Sayang UMNO lost such a leader to pakatan.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 12:55  

I am positive that your forecast will be right. In that Zaid will win, and win comfortably.

The question of why UMNO refused to accept the candidate wanted by MIC.My assessment of that decision is actually very simple. UMNO want that seat come the next GE. For this BE, UMNO wants BN to lose, so that it can justify taking over the seat for the next GE.

mycuntree

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 12:58  

dato',


you are right until EC waves the magic wand and transfer some 13,000 votes. assuming 50% couldnt find their new consituency, BN will turn the table and my prediction BN to win by some 1,000 votes.

hey, UMNO will do whatever is necessary to stay in power including manipulating and subverting the august institutions.

Hellfire,  25 April 2010 at 12:58  

By the GRACE OF ALLAH I HOPE YOUR WORDS BECOME TRUE. MAY ALLAH BLESS PKR AND ZAID IBRAHIM WINS WITH A LANDSLIDE VICTORY AND kamal bin nathan loses his deposit.
MAY ALLAH BLESS ALL.

Franc 25 April 2010 at 12:59  

Zaid will win.

Worst scenario : 309 vote majority
Probable scenario : 2500 vote majority
Best scernario : 7394 vote majority

Its Divine Intervention!

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 13:28  

Dato, please give the names of these Ketua Cawangan Umno and post it in your blog so that people know there are traitors in the midst.

You must have the conscience to tell the world who these traitors are.

Bye.

chowster 25 April 2010 at 13:28  

I'm sorry for you. To back a cheat makes one a cheat too, doesn't it?

Quiet Despair,  25 April 2010 at 13:37  

A very good yet stark, realistic posting. Albeit painting a very grim picture for me who wants BN to win like you confessed.
You hope you are wrong this time. I too hope you are wrong. At the back of my mind, I believe what you wrote.
But I still want to believe BN will win by a majority of 1,500 to 2,000 votes. Even if PKR wins, it will be the same majority.
But I am rather sure, the spoilt votes will be bigger than the majority of either winner. History repeating itself in the 2008 GE.
I am banking my hopes solely on the Malay voters. Strictly, they are the determinant factor in the elections.
I now place my myself as a voter in Hulu langat
Dalam kepala saya berlegar, nak memilih Kamal yang berkiblatkan Najib atau nak memilih Zaid yang berkiblatkan Anwar.
I sedar Najib and Anwar are the real contenders in the game.
If I vote Kamal, this will validate Najib's earnest vision of 1Malaysia and NEM which will benefit all Malaysians.
Najib has gone to the ground to see me, talk to me and throw lots of goodies in my way including my parents in the Felda schemes.
Or should I be smart like the other races. Take whatever I am given and vote the other side.
Tapi kesian juga Najib ni. Turun padang dua kali bersma Tun M pulak ru. Dia telah mencemar duli dua kali. Biasanya PM tak pernah berkempen dalam piluhanraya kecil.
Tak mengenag budi ke saya ni? Very greedy nak best of both worlds ke saya if I vote Zaid?
I get a slick city lawyer who can cakap pandai in Parliament.
But can I knock his doors like I can call Kamal anytime when my house is flooded for example.
Nak ke Zaid menjenguk saya lepas ni?
Then I am thinking of Samy Vellu's announcement that he will quit as MIC president if BN wins. Palanivel will take his place as prty boss. He will get senatorship and by extenssion a deputy minister post.
Do I care if Kamal lost and Samy Vellu becomes a life-president of MIC?
But I do mind if Palanivel gets rewarded if I vote Kamal.
And do I care if Anwar goes to jail and Zaid takes his place as Keadilan president?
But I do mind if Zaid is just a two-year MP and the next election he will go back to his home-state.
Oooh peningnya kepala saudara Sak.

Apapun, Wahai bangsa ku
Kalau pergi Kuala Kubu
Tulis nama atas batu.
Mengundi jangan terburu-buru
Pilih MP yang jitu
Jangan terpilih MP hantu.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 14:18  

please be honest sak ,you piss because umno did not field a malay ,instead an indian. a racist is still a racist.you a snake in the grass when it comes to indian people.you probably don't have indian friends ...

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 14:50  

I beg to differ dato.BN is going win based on the following reasons.
1.The "kaki botol" factor.Its
a big no-no for malays.
2.MONEY!- you were there right?
you ought to know how much
money changed hands.

Its all about money and power.BN has both of.Eat your heart out dato.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 16:29  

Kalau PKR menang pun, majority sikit saja.Orang kampung menyampah AI and ZI!Dan ramai hormat pada PM.
Orang Melayu tetap beradap. Selalu hormat ketua yang datang tunjuk muka.

Masam Manis,  25 April 2010 at 16:46  

Dato,

My only hope if your prediction is true, UMNO/BN accept the defeat graciously and look upon themselves to blame instead of pointing at others.

Likewise if they win, they should acknowledge the victory with humility and just stop at that. Remember people beyond HS are watching. They ought to know there are many more elections to run.

An important lesson from this HS election for sure that it has raised the bar for BN the incumbent government in future elections.

Chairman Kaga 25 April 2010 at 16:54  

MAAF
TIADA 1MALAYSIAH SELAGI PAPUKARI DIIKTIRAF SBG RAJA BLOGGERS GEROMBOLAN. SELAGI TU HANYA ADA 1PARPU

MCPhysics 25 April 2010 at 17:08  

I love the part where you said the
Malays and Chinese simply don't want an Indian MP. Hope this will teach the Indians, especially the Tamil newspapers, not to lick UMNO for ever.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 17:18  

Salam Dato,

Your analysis is spot on despite bordering on the incredible but this is the stuff legends were made of.

BN has to be annihilated for our country to move forward.

Hopefully your prediction will come true.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 17:18  

you can analyse all you want Sakmongkol.

BUT i can say: when it comes to MONEY v HUMAN DIGNITY -- money will win hands down.

Your puak umno has promised and outlayed plenty of cash in this one.

Cash/phantoms/rempits plus the EC makes a formidable foe.

BN will win with at least 2000 majority.

Pak Mango

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 19:50  

I suppose your prediction was wrong after all.

But you will not want to say anything ABOUT the blatant way BN folks dished out money and also assured of more money if BN won?

After all, thats their trait?

And this society has to continue sucking up to such folks who now use threats and intimidation to get the votes- apart from money.

When can we see the new Malaysia?

PARAMESWARA

sakmongkol AK47 25 April 2010 at 20:16  

parameswara

i can live with my wrong prediction. no, i am not going to say all that. you and others can articulate better on those things.

Greenbottle 25 April 2010 at 20:22  

alahai melayu umno!!! sayang pak kadok, menang sorak kampung tergadai...

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 20:50  

BN menang kerana tipu.

main kotor, celaka BN/UMNO

tabur begitu banyak wang, menguggut orang asli, FRU dan polis tangkap orang PKR, undi POS, undi hantu2 dll. semua ni tentu lah boleh menang.

BN/UMNO -penipu, pencuri, pengkhianat, perompak, penyamun, pembunuh.

Jahanamlah BN/UMNO.

Harap BN/UMNO dikuburkan di Sibu nanti

orang kampung

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 20:53  

Wenger, this is where legends made of.. Clearly u are not..

Wrong prediction la.. All of u..

Voters in HS want BN. Even when PR gave money rm500 each to voters in ulu yam etc..

Don't be boastful next time..

By the way, those Umno traitors must be brought to disciplinary committee..

BN could have won with a bigger majority if not because of these traitors.

sakmongkol AK47 25 April 2010 at 20:58  

anon at 20:53.

what's yr problem? wenger offered his honest assessment.
i said as much i want BN to win and clearly hope my analysis is wrong. i said i can live with the wrong analysis.
but i shall continue to voice about the ills plaguing UMNO. that doesn't make me any less loyal to UMNO than you.

Wenger J Khairy,  25 April 2010 at 21:10  

Well no big deal.
I went in my reasoning and I was proven wrong. So my blogging silence continues..

Gong Tuah Tai,  25 April 2010 at 21:28  

Congratulations to Najib and his deputy, Muhyideen. Guys like Sakmongkol and Zaid are idealists, dreamers. No consequence. You fellas are the realists for you have proven beyond doubt that $$$ is might and the Indians cannot be trusted...they will sell their own mothers and sisters if given enough $$$ to buy samsu, toddy, or whatever. As for the Malays, they will learn when their daughters are exported as Malay MAIDS. That day shall come. Well done, let's carry on screwing the nation...the rakyat begs to be screwed anyway.

kuldeep 25 April 2010 at 21:55  

Could have won with Doc on board.Thats the cross PR head honchos hv to bear.

Meanwhile , nothing changes except for more soundbites about the change in political landscape.You can rely on the main stream media to be seeking the views and packaged responses from hordes of Professors,political analysts,experts to support the contention that HS is the beginning of the beginning for BN and the end for PR.

Whatever I hope I won't be retrenched soon,gets my paypacket cause petrol,electricity,toll,salt,sugar will be on upward trajectory starting May.

Its good for me..travel less,less sugar and salt,no aircond cos it can cause arthritis..yes..everything Bn proposes is cause its good for rakyat.

Quiet Despair,  25 April 2010 at 21:58  

Congrats to the people of Hulu Selangor. Like Sak, I share your happiness.
Congrats Kamal. For a first outing, you did well.
Of course heartiest comgratulations to DS Najib, Muhyiddin and all Umno people from top to grass-roots for making it happen.
Guys, please accept the verdict. Respect the voters choice.
Please let us not be a nation of fault-finders.
If PKR wins, will we hear the same gripes like you are starting now?
Bet we are gonna hear much of this from here on now.

kj,  25 April 2010 at 22:01  

a fair pundit you are.

maybe i'll refer to you which horse should i bet on in the near future.

bat8 25 April 2010 at 22:21  

Dato

Ulasan gong Tuah Tai adalah peringatan kepada kita orang melayu. Namun dalam dunia hari ini, nasihat tersebut ibarat mencurah air kedaun keladi.

2. Kesedihan hati saya kepada kita orang melayu. Sampai bila kita mahu membiarkan diri kita dimanipulasi( perkataan "ditipu hidup2 agaknya terlalu keras untuk digunakan) oleh pemimpin UMNO untuk kepentingan kuasa mereka.

PRK HS is purely untuk mengekalkan kuasa pemimpin sahaja.

3. I am consistent in my stand, apa yang kita lihat di HS, itulah watak UMNO(Baru) sebenarnya. Sejakditubuhkan pada tahun 1988, itulah UMNO(Baru).

4. Now, kemenangan UMNO(baru) di HS sebenarnya adalah kemengan yang akan mempercepatkan ketidak relevanan UMNO(Baru) dalam arena politik tanahair. Kemenangan ini sebenarnya seperti meletak tali gantung keleher sendiri.

Cara kempen di HS menandakan bermulanya fasa terakhir kehancuran. Kita tidak pernah melihat kempen yang begitu menjijikkan sejak era TDM memerintah.

5. No doubt there are going to be s few more PRK running to GE13. Selepas PRK HS, kita akan melihat kempen-kempen UBN yang lebih bolder.

My only parayer is, hopefully APCO didnt have any hands to formulate UBN strategies in PRK HS!

Gud Luck dato!

bat8

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 22:23  

gong gua tai ,with people like you in malaysia .we can forget about unity this country.even, pakatan rakyat would not take you as member.in fact ,you are the evil that needs to be eradicated.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 22:39  

Doesn't matter dato' that you were wrong. Cos you did say you'd be v happy if you were proven wrong.
We need ppl like you to kick the butts of these elected reps, esp umno. Jangan riak ya. Celebrate for this one night only and get cracking.
If anything HS by-election has proven that adun/mp cannot just sit on their butts anymore and hope ppl will vote you.
In HS, the winner was the rakyat.

To sdra kamalanathan, congrats. Serve your constituents well.


HAPPY TOO

Masam Manis,  25 April 2010 at 23:09  

Dato I am your fan. Though we may differ in opinion but in many ways the objectives are as close it can be.

Congrats to BN but as based on the results with all the "efforts" put in by BN components to win this election but this is nothing to celebrate. BN/Umno must sober-up fast. Get rid of the mentality of winner's takes all as it will consume or rather intoxicate the mind to see the reality.

The numbers could be representation the nation is about equally divided. The people will not hesitate to punish in the next election if their voices are not heard especially when leaders appear aloft and distance with the ground sentiments.

Don't like to repeat myself but BN just raise the stake higher after this election. Put it boldly it is not really in BN/Umno favour in the coming GE.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 23:13  

Why are those people saying your predictions were wrong? No you were right.

Your assessments were based on onething ... fair play. Logical thinking with the emotions swayed by big vitamin M.

Just look at the way it was fought by BN side is enough to say this is one battle BN must win at ALL COSTS... and they did with only a small majority. Wow RM60 million of goodies is not little.

Can they do it nationwide when GE13comes around?

Like Kit asked MACC .. can Najib offer the RM3 million they way he did? Given provided BN won.

Now maybe we get MB Khalid to ask MACC is it alright if HE does it too? Wonder how would MACC reply.

If it is okay for BN so it should be the same for Pakantan too. Well everyday the standards we are getting gets lower.

These are public money they are throwing around without planning. Money thrown to the voters partly paid for by Pakatan too.

Jokers lah .. how low can we all go?

No Dato, you were not wrong. it is only that you did not figure out this kind of Money politics can ever go so low.

Interesting now to see if the Maika issue gets solved now.

Anonymous,  25 April 2010 at 23:26  

Yes, you were wrong but BN failed to get all the 6,000+ majority votes that they got at state level in 2008 GE.

Support for PR are still strong ... can they turn the 1,725 votes back to PR ?

Will BN be complacent like 2008 GE ?

ALLAH KNOWS BEST.

Nani Cheras

Anonymous,  26 April 2010 at 01:16  

Dato,

Your analysis is correct... Zaid should have won.

But, BN/UMNO unleashed a battery of dirty tricks - buy votes, threaten orang asli, use FRU, RELA goons to kawal the kampung orang asli, took away their ICs, threaten chinese voters, use phanton voters who came in bus loads around 4pm when they know they are losing - that's how they won.

BN/UMNO won through dirty tricks and tactics. This is not winning....this is cheating without maruah! The EC is in cahoot with them.

Shame on BN/UMNO.

You are about the only saintly man in BN/UMNO. That is why your ground assessment after visiting it is correct.

Just that UMNO/BN arm-twisted the entire situation.

How could you support a party that cheats big time?

Idris

Baharudin 26 April 2010 at 02:31  

Dato',
It'd be interesting to see your rationale for the "actual" results in your next posting!? Hehehe... as they say, economists are economists... very much like predicting the weather... despite all the satellite technology, we still get the weather wrong... the "fun" part, of course, is in the guessing game!

Anonymous,  26 April 2010 at 07:40  

Dato'
All BN has to do now is to buy a few more PR MPs to get back the two third majority and they can start re alienating the election boundaries to win more seats in the next GE. That way they will remain in power forever.

Anonymous,  26 April 2010 at 17:56  

Kalau dsh kalah terima je,tunjukkan jasa pada rakyat melalui kerajaan negeri,tak yahlah beri alasan ini dan itu,kita jangan jadi manusia dauble standard,aku tak pernah lagi terbaca dalam Harakah dan Suara Keadilan memuji kerajaan BN,Kalau fikir betul-betul takkanlah tak ada sedikitpun kebaikan kerajaan BN,sama juga denga Utusan,semua tak elok belaka pada sebelah lawan,cuba fikir dengan matang,yang elok cakap elok yang tak elok cakap tak elok..terbuka sikit wahai melayu.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP