Hulu Selangor- Sakmongkol’s final take.

 

It's written in the stars. The outcome of today's election in Hulu Selangor. Nothing that I can say, do or hope can alter what is already fated. Today, the people of Hulu Selangor will come out to vote. The parliamentary seat of Hulu Selangor has some 64.500 voters. 53-54% of the voters are Malay. 26% are Chinese while Indians constitute about 19% of the voters. Usually in by elections, voter turnout is around 80% of eligible voters.

Much as I want UMNO to win, objectively, my assessment is as follows.

In early April, I wrote as follows:-

Katalah yang keluar mengundi ialah sebanyak 80% atau lebih kurang 50,000 orang.
Bagaimana rakyat mengundi? Rakyat akan undi mengikut citarasa perkauman.
Daripada 50,000, pengundi Melayu sebanyak 26,500. Dari jumlah ini BN munkin hanya dapat 45% iaitu sebanyak 12,000.

Dari 50,000 jumlah pengundi cina yang keluar mengundi ialah 13,000 orang. BN mungkin hanya dapat 10% undi orang cina atau sebanyak 1500.

Daripada 50,000 tersebut, pengundi India hanya 19% atau 10,000.

Berapa pengudni India yang MIC mampu serahkan kepada BN? Paling kuat saya rasa 40% atau hanya 4,000 orang.


 

As I move around at the frontlines, incognito most of the time, my prediction will be as follows:-

PR will get about 55% of the Malay voters. That's about 14,000 votes. How so?

While we celebrate and make merry at the crossovers to BN- legislators here and there, former PKR women leaders and all that, those crossovers were good for morale boosters. Good hype medicine in isolation. Put in context, they mean nothing because they don't bring in votes.

The one bringing votes to PR are the ground troops. These are done through the whisperers who move seamlessly among the voters, unnoticed most of the times. The ketua kampongs, the imams, the ahsos and nyonyas who have formed 'kutu groups' among themselves and hear this- the UMNO ketua cawangans who are practicing what PM Najib has declared- people first. They have translated it to mean, their interest first- land title, free water, good governance etc. the ones getting votes are the UMNO ketua cawangans who meet Zaid Ibrahim on the side pledging support in return for immediate self gratification. The ones getting votes are the Indian achis and ayyas whom are largely ignored by Samy Vely and his people. The Chinese? They have remained politically defiant, being anti establishment most of the times.

It is against this background that the contenders go into the battleground today.

Malay votes.

In Hulu Bernam, UMNO ketua cawangans are moving around quietly to get votes for Zaid. One, because they have had enough of another Indian MP. They have had the services of an Indian MIC MP for the last 18 years- yet development in Bukit Sentosa, in Serendah is much wanting. Two, they want to get immediate gratification- titles and ownership to their land. So, they would rather work with Zaid who is from PR who can interface effortlessly with the PR government in Selangor. Three, being seasoned party men, they know, the big guns from outside are only birds of passage.

Khalid Ibrahim may be a stammerer or something like that- but he's not that stupid. He changed all the ketua kampongs who are his immediate front liners. He changed the imams and mosque and surau office bearers who are sympathetic to his government. These people consolidate the state government's legitimacy. As before, voters know, they are better off working with the state government than against it.

So, PR wins the majority of Malay votes. What about the RM5 million paid to FELDA people with more to come? Its 17 years too late and the money they received is theirs in any case not some unsolicited endowments from the government. These people bloody fought for their money.

Chinese votes.

Of the 13,000 Chinese voters, BN can hope to win maximum 30%. PR wins 70% or around 9,000 Chinese votes. Chinese womenfolk who form 'kutu groups' or financial self help groupings are conducting whispering campaigns to not vote for the Indian candidate. That doesn't mean they trust Zaid more- it's just that they don't want the Indian candidate.

PR wins another 9,000 votes amounting to a subtotal of 23,000 votes. BN has so far won 16,000 votes.

The real shocker will be the Indian votes.

As I moved around, I was surprised to see many of the operations rooms run by MIC were not running. I have not seen pictures of the MIC candidate working his magic among Indians. So where is MIC in this election? Where have all the Indians gone to? Kamalanathan appears to be disowned by his own MIC ad his Indian community.

Kamalanathan will be a pitiful sight after this. Even before the elections he is already disowned, after the elections he will be ghost of the past. He wasn't the MIC preferred choice. Mugilan was supposed to be backed and had the support of UMNO. The MIC wanted Palanivel, the man who served 18 years as MP but who accomplished nothing. He wasn't therefore UMNO's choice too. Kamalanathan is a 2^nd best solution. You can't get the ivory, the horn will do.

So how will the Indian voters behave? My own assessment is that 55% of the Indian votes numbering 10,000 will go to PR. PR gets about 5500 and BN gets 4500.

With another 5500, the total votes going to PR are 28,500 and BN gets 20,500 to 21,000 votes.

Sakmongkol predicts that PR will get around 28,000 votes to BN 21,000 votes. PR wins by a majority of around 7,000 votes.

My own experience is to discount the numbers gained by the victor by 30%. This is necessary because the numbers for the victor may have been influenced by subjective assessments, in built biases and simple over optimism. If we discount the margin of the victory by 30% the majority is likely to be around 5,000 votes.

The margin of the victor is also discounted on account of the capabilities of the challenger. PKR's opponent is UMNO which leads the federal government. The federal government has coercive powers and will undoubtedly use them to the fullest. UMNO has two technologies which its opponents do not have- they can cheat and use those pieces of paper bearing the face of Malaysia's first Agong. These factors will further depress PKR's margin.

I shall say, this election will be won by PR with a majority of nearing 5000 votes. I believe PKR will win the HS seat with a majority of between 3000-5000 votes. That's the way the cookie crumbles. I am sure, in days to come; there will be much forensic post mortem on the part of UMNO.