Monday, 10 December 2012

Which Type of Malay does Zaharin's UMNO help?



The MP of Bayan Baru says UMNO and BN have changed. UMNO is the only party that can help the Malays. He says he was duped into believing that PR will help out the Penang Malays.
We will let Zaharin Hashim and others like him continue in that belief. That belief is bought. He tried to sell his kind of allegiance and loyalty to Guan Eng a few years back and when failed, left PR. He must have succeeded to sell that kind of allegiance and loyalty to Najib and gang. That tells a lot about Najib’s kind of leadership. It’s a leadership that thrives on conspiratorial deals and intrigues. The leadership constitution of Guan Eng and Najib is vastly different.
In other words, allegiance to UMNO is allegiance bought and is provided by people like Zaharin Hashim. In Zaharin’s case it was probably bought for a few million Ringgit and access to Najib. In the case of many more, by the RM 500 BR1M and various other kickbacks.
Allegiance bought is flimsy and fluid. Allegiance founded on beliefs and conviction and tied to a cause and mission is more rock solid. Hopefully the majority believe in a cause and the loyalty of those which was bought is minimal.
We have 2 groups of people who crossed over to support PR in 2008. Hopefully a majority of the 3.7 million Malays out of 5.7 million who supported PR did so because of beliefs and conviction. The fears of the Malays before they switched allegiance have always been the same and that did not stop them from supporting PR. It shows that Malays are pragmatic enough to believe that any government can do as good or as bad as UMNO can. So they are indifferent to the promises that UMNO made because, the same promises can be carried out by others beside UMNO. All that is needed are the instruments of power and resources. What UMNO lacks is the management.
UMNO no longer enjoys the exclusive privilege in saying they can do what they say they can.
One group changed allegiance because of fluid reasons such as momentary unhappiness, protest, denied some favors asked and so on. The other group changed allegiance because they believe in a common cause to rid this country of a corrupt government. The nature and quality of the respective allegiances are different. The one with the first group is ephemeral. It is easily given as soon as the source of the protest is sorted out, the favors asked granted and immediate relief is given.
The allegiance of the other group is firmly embedded. It’s not easily recovered by the usual means of solving problems. In 2008, the average swing of votes to the opposition was just below 13%. Let’s allow a 5% recovery rate by UMNO because it has given out huge amounts of money directly. It has also bombarded the public with daily propaganda.
Which means the antics of people like Zaharin and others like him is not a cause for worry. It will not erase the bigger number of people who crossed the Rubicon in 2008 to support PR. For 55 years, all UMNO has been able to do is to cause the income disparity between the rich and poor Malays to get wider. Income disparity among Malays is bigger than income disparities among the other Malaysian communities.
The rich Malay is represented by the son of the soil who is able to to set up the largest Ferrari showroom outside Italy costing RM20 million. The rich Malay is represented by the son of a famous panadol peddler who can buy a Bugatti Veyron costing a few million Ringgit. The poor Malay is represented by the anonymous Malay who faces the daily daunting tasks of buying Ikan Kembong at RM17 per kilo. The poor Malay is represented by the anonymous Malays who weigh the decision to buy Tenggiri at RM40 per kilo, sugar at RM2.50 a kilo, rice which is getting more expensive by the bag.

11 comments:

Anonymous,  10 December 2012 19:16  

Salam Dato,

Tabik kepada Integrity Menteri di Indonesia yang sanggup letak jawatan hanya kerana didakwa rasuah.

Di Malaysia rasuah adalah budaya Pak Menteri lebih-lebih lagi apabila rasuah di jenamakan semula sebagai komisen Ketua Pak Menteri. Jadi semua kakitangan kerajaan dari peon sampai kepada Perdana Menteri di galakkan ambil komisen. Tak perlulah lagi bagi rasuah bawah meja, atas meja kira ok...kerana ianya adalah komisen. No problem.

Negara kita adalah npengeluar minyak sawit terbesar di Dunia jerit Pak Menteri. Tapi lihat saja di pasaran rakyat dicatu untuk membeli minyak sawit untuk kegunaan dapur. Catuan ini bukan baru. Ianya berlaku bertahun-tahun dan saling bertukar Pak Menteri yang menjaga minyak sawit. Tak caya? Tanya peniaga, Tak caya lagi? cuba beli lebih dari lima kilo. Soalnya mana perginya minyak sawit dalam negara ini? Menteri yang diamanahkan menjaga komoditi utama negara pun tak tahu menjalankan tanggungjawab untuk rakyat kerana Sibuk untuk memperkayakan diri sendiri dan kroni. dari dulu, kini dan selama-lamanya. Oh ye, Al Syed Mokhtar Bukhari dapat lagi satu projek Barisan Nasional - 4G.. Hidup Melayu!


Mohd Zuki

Anonymous,  10 December 2012 19:44  

After 55 years of UMNO rule the Malay community (minus the UMNOputras) are living in the backwater..... living in ikan kembong and daun keladi. Their graduate children are unemployable and they have to service several loans.
If UMNO wins this time, The Malays will never recover from the malaise for another 50 years.
If the Malays want a better life, vote Pakatan.

Anonymous,  10 December 2012 20:12  

Dear Datuk Sak

The French Revolution and its immediate aftermath tells us that a
volunteer army consisting of mobilised, politically-aware
citoyen will defeat a mercenary army
anytime (especially if the latter consists of bought foreigners)

Phua Kai Lit

OneMalaysian,  10 December 2012 21:27  

Dear Sakmongkol

“Let’s allow a 5% recovery rate by UMNO because it has given out huge amounts of money directly.”

Just today I was thinking about this swing factor. Over the past 5 general elections, the electorate seemed to have swung one way and then the other way in the following election. So taking two consecutive elections together, the net swing was very small. In other words, if they swung 10% towards BN in one election, they had the tendency to swing back 10% in the next. There is a good reason for this phenomenon. Faced with a declining vote UMNO/BN worked harder to please, or bribe, as is the latest tactic.

Somehow I think you are a bit optimistic with your predictions in favour of PR. In 2008 about 49.8% of the popular votes went to PR. If we use some simplistic numbers we will see this picture. In 2008 about 40% of the Malays voted for PR. This translates to about (60% population x 40% votes) 24% of overall votes for PR. The non-Malays voted (40% population x 65% votes) 26% overall for PR. That gave PR a combined 50% overall popular vote.

For GE13, let’s assume non-Malays (Chinese + others) increase their support to 75%. This will give (40% population x 75%) about 30% overall votes. If PR’s overall votes drop to say 48% from 50% i.e. a 2% point overall drop, then the Malay vote for PR would be (48% overall - 30% non-Malay) 18%. This means Malay support for PR drops from 24% points overall to 18% points overall a drop of just 6% points but 25% in effect. In other words for every 4 Malays who voted for PR in 2008, only 3 would in GE13. Now that’s a significant swing back to UMNO. But because of the expected swing by non-Malays of 15%, the NET effect is only a 2% point drop in popular vote (from 50% to 48%) for PR.

However, don’t be fooled by these percentages. What they mean is that PR candidates would win by bigger margins in urban and sub-urban seats, but they may not translate into many more seats (except for DAP taking MCA and Gerakan seats, or SUPP seats in Sarawak). The significant effect is in rural seats where UMNO will win back seats from PAS and PKR. So in the peninsular it is likely that UMNO would claw back some seats from PR. The overall outcome of GE13 is likely to hinge on Sabah and Sarawak where the political dynamics are quite different from those on the peninsular.

Anonymous,  10 December 2012 22:37  

Dear OneMalaysian

"Optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect", my friend

Corrupt regimes that have lost their legitimacy in the eyes of the vast majority of decent people can collapse faster than you think.

Just think of the rapid disappearance of the "British Empire" beginning in 1947. Within 15 years, it had largely disappeared.

Just think of the Communist police states of Eastern Europe from 1989 onwards, collapsing like ten pins one after the other.

Even the military regime in our neighbour Burma is trying to save its own skin by carrying out genuine reforms!

Phua Kai Lit

walla 11 December 2012 11:18  

If we delve into all the surveys done so far, the popularity of Barisan has actually nosedived from one month to the next.

From May this year, the downhill momentum has picked up size and speed with each month. It is consonant with the growing groundswell of voters opposing Barisan and licking for a massive swing to break the unfair setups that Barisan has used in all past general elections to subvert the will of the rakyat for fair elections and true democracy.

In just one word, the holy lightning rod spells 'injustice'.

Umno and its members know all this. In particular, they know injustice is what rankles our original Malays the most because the communal roots of our original Malays have molded them to believe in the basic principle of democracy - fairness to all under the same sky.

That's why Umno has had to mount all sorts of tactical and panicky measures to try and block the growing tide even to the extent of buying the subversive loyalties of some personnel in Opposition-run administrations and barricading innocents with razor-sharp barbed wires.

However in life there is a balancing principle; those who do bad will ultimately get their comeuppance; nature will expose all bad intentions.

Thus, it became apparent how each of Umno's measures was immediately seen to reek of the basal ulterior motive of saving only its own skin, so that attempts by its mainstream media to paint a glossier picture than reality have also backfired and boomeranged back on all their own faces.

Voters have therefore drawn the necessary conclusion that the Umno political machinery has only so far been geared to sin, spin, sleaze, sycophancy and spoils.

On that basis, all trust in Umno has vaporized completely and permanently. Because if the method to win is bad, any result of winning cannot be good. It will be injustice incarnate.

That is why our original Malays in particular no longer believe anything that Umno says no matter what it tries to say.

The constitutional Malays are not far behind but they have to swallow their own saliva and continue to put on a reprehensible show of loyalty in order to safeguard their hard-earned bumiputra status accorded by their Umno warlords.

Reinforcing that, more and more people who had worked in high positions in the ziggurat of the Umno government have come out to clarify how they were made to do things by their political masters against the rakyat and all rules of law, for that matter proper conduct of justice.

Therefore, do the rakyat need any more evidence of things done against them by an Umno they had innocently trusted before, a trust Umno has never wavered from devaluing for its own interests until the perpetrators under its commands are now trying to save their own souls by admitting to acts done against their natural grain?

Which begs the next question. Those who have recently voted for Pro-Aspirasi in our local universities must detox themselves from their BTN mindset.

If Najib can give rm53 million out of the rakyats' funds to BTN without first reforming that chauvinistic body that reeks of a certain kutty DNA, you would wonder how his 1Malaysia can be achieved using BTN when all records of BTN's performance so far only show how chauvinistic its operators have been against the grain of 1Malaysia.

Especially when Najib himself now admits to not knowing what his 1Malaysia is all about.

Why didn't he ask the Rakyat Of Malaysia? They already knew what it is long before Umno was born. That's how the Federation of Malaya came into being.

walla 11 December 2012 11:18  

2/2

Pro-Aspirasi voters can next ask themselves another question. It's in the name - aspiration is about hopeful ambitions. A better and fairer Malaysia, perhaps?

If that be so, how can their aspiration be articulated, championed and used as publicity fodder by the youngest unemployable multi-millionaire in this country?

Maybe those students should ask how he could come by so much wealth so quickly so that they too can pick a tip or two on how to make quick bucks so as not to need government funding for their studies. For that matter having to slog into the wee hours of the morning mugging sleepy notes.

How can that Umno youth leader represent the spirit of BTN's Pro-Aspirasi vis-a-vis 1Malaysia when he had started his career by lambasting alternative education streams one day and lending his face for photo-opportunities another?

Incidentally, Najib now says those streams are also mainstream but he chooses to ignore the fact his 1Malay deputy and group continue to exercise malignant neglect on whichever stream is not national-type as if the students enrolled there don't come from Malaysian parents. No wonder 1Malaysia remains fuzzy-wuzzy even to himself.

As is that Umno youth leader for championing a vacuous idea shaped by a finished leader challenged by a 1Malay opportunist acting as proxy for a Kutty who remains the archenemy of the said youth leader. If blur, ask the father-in-law.

If Khairy can never be an Anwar when young, how can he ever be an Anwar the statesman today? Any photo of him going to jail for helping the poor Malays that his Umno kaki's had put on a teary display at the recent GA?

And that is why our Umno Youths have peddled their souls for the last time. Khairy's Umno is no different from Zaharin's Umno which is no different from the Umno in all but name of the two Ali's, the Ezam's, and so many other Umno-mongers who only self-syioked themselves silly as having reformed, a word that even Mahathir has to desperately plagiarize from Anwar and the Opposition in order to try and stem the slide of Umno.

A slide that should put to rest the notion of the swing factor for Barisan. Because there is another factor operating to nullify it and that's the new voters group.

The total electorate today is some 13.2 million voters. Since GE12, 3 million new first-time voters have come onboard. That new 25 percent is the counteracting factor. Eighty percent below the age of 30, they are all educated, internet-savvy and anti-MSM. No amount of Umno spinning works on them. They carry with them the new torch of change for Malaysia. They are the new torch-bearers of a new Malaysia that embodies true conscience and clean governance.

And that Najib, Muhyiddin, Mahathir, Khairy and all the jingbang group in Umno are extremely afraid of.

The swing factor will not be to Umno and its moribund Barisan hangers-on. They can all talk about high interest rates for their fixed deposits as if they think the Rakyat Of Malaysia have not asked how come only now they are trying to appear conscientious when they have had thirty years at the least to see how many had been deprived, jailed, bludgeoned and left to wither while the Umno warlords and their supporters unjustly live it up and paint the town red on rakyats money that could have saved entire families.

Even today. And that is why the swing factor imagined for Barisan is actually the swing factor for Pakatan.

Injustice is like weed. It must be cleared so that new seed can be planted for new trees to grow for new and healthier fruits to be harvested for the new young who need food so that they can be strong to contribute to a new nation whose time and destiny has arrived.

'Enough!' will do. Remember to ABU.




Anonymous,  11 December 2012 12:59  

Dato Sak,
your unelegant silence of recent news concerning Musa Hassan and Dato Sak is very deafening.

Anonymous,  11 December 2012 15:04  

Can you "predict/project" the future by just basing on past incidents/performance or to make it sound "scientific" past data? Even in unit trust brochures, they will caveat it as untrue. So who will win GE 13? If you believe in Chinese astrology, those who rule have "divine mandate" and often it is not necessarily the "best person" for whatever that means. One thing for sure no one rules forever, else China will still be ruled by emperors and Europe will be ruled by kings. However the "divine mandate" is determined by 3 interacting factors, namely,
1. tian shi - the time/climate
2. di li - the geopolitical
3. ren he -the people (the harmony,support and unity)
PM Najib has been toying with factor 1 for quite some time but it looks like he is fast losing control over factor 1. At the moment, factor 2 seems to favour him as Sarawak and to a lesser degree Sabah are still in his bag. If the response from the people to PR "jelajah" is any indication, there seems to be a groundswell towards PR lately. All said GE 13 will be won by the party that has all the 3 factors in its favour.

Anonymous,  11 December 2012 20:08  

Its not really important what kind of Malay Zahrain is. Its more important what most Malays can become and one thing we don't want them becoming is like Mahathir.

Mahathir even with all his success is now a cautionary tale to Malays NOT to become because its has become obvious that he is pulling all the strings to push UMNO/BN across the finishing line in the coming GE including getting Rosmah to write a book and him having to support someone he detest all along and hardly spoken to in so many years..

Just because he fears everything will unravel when he loses GE-13..

Anonymous,  12 December 2012 23:28  

Ikan tenggiri Rm 40/kg.... Tenggiri klcc kot...hahaha...pasar baru rm 24/kg la brader.. opss lupa..org kaya mana Ada gi pasar...

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