Perilous in Perak
Perak has
24 parliamentary seats. In 2008, BN won 13 of those seats. Most of them were
won on the slimmest of margins. So the argument goes, the opposition also won
on slim margins. The counter argument is, the victory by the opposition was won
on the courage of convictions while the victory of BN was won as a result of
the erosion of confidence. These are 2 different things. One won as a result of
convictions is hard to slip back while the one won as a result of erosion of
convictions is extremely difficult to sustain.
|
|
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT
|
2008 SUPPORT
FOR PAKATAN
(%)
|
GE13 PROJECTED SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (%)
|
EXPECTED WINNER
|
|
1
|
GERIK
|
34
|
41
|
BN
|
|
2
|
LENGGONG
|
35
|
42
|
BN
|
|
3
|
LARUT
|
46
|
53
|
PR
|
|
4
|
PARIT BUNTAR
|
60
|
67
|
PR
|
|
5
|
BAGAN SERAI
|
53
|
60
|
PR
|
|
6
|
BUKIT GANTANG
|
50
|
56
|
PR
|
|
7
|
TAIPING
|
60
|
65
|
PR
|
|
8
|
PADANG RENGAS
|
44
|
52
|
PR
|
|
9
|
SUNGAI SIPUT
|
50
|
55
|
PR
|
|
10
|
TAMBUN
|
44
|
52
|
PR
|
|
11
|
IPOH TIMUR
|
69
|
75
|
PR
|
|
12
|
IPOH BARAT
|
65
|
72
|
PR
|
|
13
|
BATU GAJAH
|
71
|
75
|
PR
|
|
14
|
KUALA KANGSAR
|
45
|
51
|
PR
|
|
15
|
BERUAS
|
52
|
59
|
PR
|
|
16
|
PARIT
|
42
|
49
|
PR
|
|
17
|
KAMPAR
|
45
|
52
|
PR
|
|
18
|
GOPENG
|
56
|
62
|
PR
|
|
19
|
TAPAH
|
42
|
49
|
PR
|
|
20
|
PASIR SALAK
|
44
|
51
|
PR
|
|
21
|
LUMUT
|
45
|
53
|
PR
|
|
22
|
BAGAN DATOK
|
43
|
51
|
PR
|
|
23
|
TELOK INTAN
|
50
|
55
|
PR
|
|
24
|
TANJUNG MALIM
|
41
|
48
|
PR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Will the
people of Perak forget that during the reign of Zamri, he has given out more
land than Nizar did when the latter was MB? Many landless people who were
without land titles and who have worked the land got it during Nizar’s stint as
MB. What wasn’t told was that more Malays got their titles too during Nizar’s
time.
During UMNO’s
time the grant of land was the hijacked prerogative of UMNO divisional heads,
UMNO reps and merciless Pengerusi JKKK. During Zamri’s time, more land was
given to companies and cronies rather than people.
The people
of Perak have never forgiven the manner in which a government of their choice
has been usurped by UMNO though extra legal means. Whatever the court says, the
general perception was, their government of choice was snatched away from them
by dirty means.
The people
of Perak are not oblivious to the rampant corruption of BN leaders. The laundry
list of corruption is too long to be repeated here and indeed much has been
revealed in the alternative media.
Will the
Perak people be swayed with the oft repeated argument that, if PR takes over
they will do the same things like what UMNO/BN does?
If UMNO
assumes this, they must be thinking that Perak people are dullards and
impervious to the injustices and corruption. UMNO assumes others are like them
who are motivated by predatory instincts. No one can do any worse than UMNO
does.
People can see
that every Pakatan administration has scored better than all other BN administrations
on almost every measure. Balancing the budget, achieving budget surpluses, increasing
state revenues, carrying out people friendly programs. They do, while UMNO
talks and talks. Doing and talking BS are like sky and earth.
With an
allowance of 5% regain by UMNO and BN, PR should still have 7% reserve to win
all but 2 of the parliamentary seats in Perak.
The possible outcome at GE13 after discounting 5% in favor
of UMNO/BN as a results of deception, corruption, cheating etc.
|
|
SEAT
|
3% SWING
|
7% SWING
|
||
|
|
|
BN
|
PR
|
BN
|
PR
|
|
1
|
GERIK
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
2
|
LENGGONG
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
3
|
LARUT
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
4
|
PARIT BUNTAR
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
5
|
BAGAN SERAI
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
6
|
BUKIT GANTANG
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
7
|
TAIPING
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
8
|
PADANG RENGAS
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
9
|
SUNGAI SIPUT
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
10
|
TAMBUN
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
11
|
IPOH TIMUR
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
12
|
IPOH BARAT
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
13
|
BATU GAJAH
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
14
|
KUALA KANGSAR
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
15
|
BERUAS
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
16
|
PARIT
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
17
|
KAMPAR
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
18
|
GOPENG
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
19
|
TAPAH
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
20
|
PASIR SALAK
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
21
|
LUMUT
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
22
|
BAGAN DATOK
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
23
|
TELOK INTAN
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
24
|
TANJUNG MALIM
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
9
|
15
|
2
|
22
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 comments:
'Will the people of Perak forget that during the reign of Zamri, he has given out more land than Nizar did when the latter was MB?'
Mistake here I think
Amin....
Amin ya Robbal 'Alamin...
Semuga pengiraan Dato' ini dimakbulkan Allah...
WakArjun
Dato'
Thanks for the analysis. You seem to be extremely confident in PR trouncing BN in the coming GE13.
InsyaAllah, let's hope that it really materialises.
Salam.
Observer
Dato,if all the cheating by Umno/BN and they can only win a couple of seats in Perak.What if there is no cheating.Then many of their candidates might be in danger of losing their deposits.
As each day goes by the future is looking gloomier and gloomier for the Umnoputras.The people have caught up with the tricks of the Umno/BN.Rampant corruption by ministers and cronies.Playing the race and religious cards.Scare mongering.All these will not work anymore.
Gomens are suppose to look after all the people,not only their cronies and ball carriers.One or two hundred ringgits will buy them votes before.But nowadays the people are more interested to kicking out the Umno/BN.So they will take the money and vote opposition anyway.
Whether Umno/BN will retain 1/3 of seats will depend on the Indians and East Malaysia.The Indians and the politicians from Sabah and Sarawak are the same kind.They will switch camps like changing clothes.These people would prefer carrots over hard work,self preseverance,pride and dignity.
When dealing with these people one has to be careful,or they will do the froggy on you.The less educated or estate Indians are more proned to be lead by the noses,as they will listen more to their leaders.So if their leaders makan suap and switch sides,they will take the whole crowd with them.
The Indians are like the Malays before.The only difference are that the Malays have woken,while the Indians are still asleep.Maybe when Umno/BN is out,things will change and be better for the Indians.That they will fare better,have more confidence and not to be so dependence on others,especially the two headed ulars.
Bruno,most the time I like your smarts and informative comments here, but this particular sounded racist comment is a bit unbecoming of a brainy professional like you. I believe there are as many dedicated and loyal Indians who supports LGE, AI,Sivarasa, Karpal Singh and Datuk Sak as they are in MIC. So pls la
Dino Spemoni
Let's give our beloved Pak Sak the carte blanche to declare unequivocally Pakatan will win all states in the coming GE. That it will be the ruling party.
Pray that he will not lose credibility when the real results come in.
I like Sak's confidence (he's like me in that aspect) when even his bosses are not.
I can also see Pakatan blogger old man Zorro is slowly coming to his senses and realizing Pakatan's ultimate demise.
Note how he is picking stories telling DAP to be in tune with the Malays especially.
Sak as a Malay leader in DAP can jolly well do it to capture the hearts and minds of the Malays to the party.
No point hitching a ride with Keadilan and PAS which are slowly losing Malay voters.
Dear Dato Sak
Looking forward to your analysis of my home state of Pahang.
Phua Kai Lit
P.S. UMNO-BN will be fried in Kuantan and Raub because of their utter disregard of the threats to the health of the public from the Lynas and Bukit Koman projects.
Deservedly so !
met a friend over last weekend.
He says that Dewan Bahasa dan Pustaka is organising a seminar/symposium on 'Penyatuan Melayu'
This gives me the notice that Umno (Baru) is up to something. And with their version of a new film, '13 May 1969' awaiting the 'RIGHT TIMING' for screening, be prepared for something really HEAVY coming our way.
When umno (BARU) is at it's lowest ebb, be careful MALAYSIANs!!!
The MIND!!!
Perak is a different animal altogether. This is where any amount of analysis and theories will be good on paper. The simple fact is that the people of Perak are just waiting for the elections to throw out BN. You wont be able to see this UNLESS you are on the ground daily in Perak. The Perakians have fortunately, experienced, different administrations, however short the opposition's administration was. The way UMNO used THAT woman to screw Perak of their legitimately voted govt, is still fresh on the minds of all Perakians.
You shouldnt even analyse Penang and Perak. These 2 states are foregone conclusions. Sometimes, what you dont hear from the ground of everyday people, is what makes the difference. Its a silent and deadly force to reckon with. Just look at what happened to the Penang Port privatisation. When the silent Penang business community decided to exert its muscle and made a public stand, the federal govt gave in and postponed the deal until after the elections. If the govt was strong AND the deal was clean, it would have put its foot down and proceeded with the deal. Now it goes to show that this deal is strictly manipulated by TDM using the govt to force the deal over to his crony, Syed Mokhtar. Definitely crony driven govt deal. BN can forget about winning back Perak AND Penang.
With permission, an interesting comment about the DBP.
It doesn’t take a scholar to know what UMNO’s intention is with releasing a highly divisive movie. Simply to invoke mistrust? The questions is ‘WHY NOW?’ especially when UMNO BARU has lost the mandate from urban Malays.
He probably won’t last too long as UMNO president anyway looking at how a certain ex-PM is calling the shots and scheming through his proxies.
If this movie is perceived to incite tension among people then it is a threat to national security. So, naturally concerned parties and citizens will lodge police reports. The Director of the movie will be investigated. As usual, nothing will happen.
Home Affairs Minister is answerable. Of course he will say it is nothing and only a piece of creative talent and asks all Malaysians to be tolerant. Law Minister will say that it is Freedom of Speech and allow it.
The ball is in the Menteri Penerangan's court because Jabatan Penapisan Filem is responsible for all censorship of movies screened in Malaysia. He will say the same thing as the Home Minister, but in fact was likely the one who is a keen supporter of this elaborate sham. History shows that this minister has bungled up so many times, it will just be another media faux paux to add to his dismal track record. One last hurrah for him to show that he did something great for his UMNO BARU before a quiet retirement and a Chairmanship position just like Syed Hamid Albar.
DPM will say it is Malaysian history. Although he is known to twist the truth on countless occasions. He’s actually smarter than he looks, but the PM’s camp is not taking chances.
PM…PM won’t say anything. He’ll just conveniently leave the country on a working trip. It’s a big world. There are so many conferences to attend.
The MCA and Gerakan Nasional will come up with a statement of protests from one or two ministers but nothing else because UMNO stopped bothering about their opinion years ago. MIC and PPP will stay silent for fear of being reprimanded by UMNO. Besides, they really don’t know where their chips will fall after this.
Sabahans and Sarawakians won't care because as far as they are concerned they don't want Semenanjung politics in their backyard since they are already living the 1-Malaysia way of life.
So, the idea of this movie AND activities around it is just to create a talking point and open old wounds irrespective of the historical accuracy and sensitivities of the time. Justification will then come in the form of movie directors defending this who are UMNO linked and waiting for Datukships and grants.
This is an old poorly rehearsed script which is just being recycled. The reason why nothing new comes out is because the think-tank are from that same era. So predictable. It’s just another ‘Interlok’ in the form of a movie. People these days read less so some say.
The youngster are now more informed and assertive. They won’t hesitate to question. Eventually, UMNO BARU will be exposed even further and lose more votes and support. So much for Najib’s 1-Malaysia.
Most rational people know the plot so just vote UMNO out.
Of course, we have to take these things with a pinch of salt.
I pray that PR will form the federal government after 13th GE, otherwise Malaysians will be be working as general workers and maids once the crude oil has been exhausted in 2020(?).
PR please monitor to ensure cheating is fully checked.
Make sure no blackout at polling centres during votes counting, possibility of swapping of ballot boxes while in transit, etc...
Agree with Dino Spemoni.
bruno, your commemt is unfair.
BN is targeting not just the Indians to cross the line.
They will be happy to win by a small margin to stay another term.
Bruno : The less educated or estate Indians are more proned to be lead by the noses,as they will listen more to their leaders.
These fellow brothers of ours are the ones who absolutely must vote for A.B.U. It is not an option or they will become slaves - thrown into deeper poverty and will have to pit against instant citizenseke out a living. They need truly dedicated people leaders from PSM, DAP, PK.
One of Hindraf leaders just flown in today.
The minimum wage is definitely good, but it has to go beyond, to create meaningful jobs for them hence they must vote A.B.U. Minimum wage will not benefit them inclusive the marginalized Chinese and Malays 9 in any order ) in any way if they can't find employment.
Perhaps you and your friends would like to cycle to their homes and influence them to vote wisely in the weekends ... not many left to GE 13. You will get to enjoy fresh air, beautiful nature and tasty authentic Chinese food, Indian food during the stopovers. Or stop by at the Pasar Ramadan makan satay or ikan bakar. Enjoy your adventures. Cheers.
"The victory by the opposition was won on the courage of convictions while the (marginal) victory of BN was won as a result of the erosion of confidence." (Sakmongkol)
Mark of a first-rate Malay mind. Allow us all to help reload that machine gun.
Perak was stolen by perfidious villains. We shall look forward to its return to the rakyat and thence to enjoy better Mak Jah's mee udang at Kampung Menteri in Kuala Sepetang.
Dino Speponi and Anon 18:10
Maybe I should have put in a longer paragraph explaining what I meant.The Indians especially the less educated and estate Indians are more dependable on others and are mostly follow the leader types.Just look at the demands of some of their leaders when not met.Some Indians,not like the usually large crowds show up during Bersih 3.0.
Most Chinese discarded the blindly follow the leader mentality long ago,followed by the Malays.Of course there are always diehards of opposing parties who will think otherwise.But with a lot at stake this coming GE the people should have one objective only.That is to kick out the Umno/BN.
I have always say to kick out the Umno/BN first and come back and settle other differences later.But many leaders will have their self interests first and use this oppourtunity as a bargaining chip.And they do not care if they dragged their community along with them.Just look at the Azmin/Khalid feud.They are just supplying ammo for the Umno/BN.
My comments are not meant to offend any people.But that is the way things are happening,because some leaders needed their community to be used as bargaining chips.
Dato Sak,
TQ for your preview on Perak but how can you predict the change of state government by calculating only Parliament seats? Remember, some voters would like to have different federal and state government with various reasons. Thus, you should analyse the chances of BN/PR by counting the DUN seats.
Let say PR rules in Perak, who is going to be the MB? Nizar is a BIG NO to Tuanku. Will DAP offers Malay candidate in DAP_sure_win seat, say Pasir Pinji? Canning? Jelapang? Pasir Bedamar? Pokok Assam? Or will DAP sacrifice again to PAS, I heard PAS is grooming Dr. Raja Iskandar Al His (to contest in Manong) to be the next MB, due to his royal blood to lessen Tuanku. Or will not Ngeh/Ngar throw their tantrum to this greenhorn chap?
Whatever it is, PR; please get the best person to lead Perak, we have been too long lagging behind. Although Perak is sandwiched by 2 advanced states (Penang and Selangor) but gain no spillovers from it, in real meaning.
I want more educated activist with strong leadership and high integrity to contest in Perak, like Bah Tony in Chenderiang seat (???). No more Cashvinder please...
And one last reminder,remember that guy from Hindraf who swam all the way to London,to avoid prosecution from the law and seek political asylum.After years of living the good life,smelling fresh country air,suddenly he has decided to return home months before the very crucial GE.
Expect more Bollywood(Dallas) style series coming out soon.
Dato', pls don't forget what the prostitute from Jelapang did to Perakians.She sold out to the highest bidder,that's'why there is still a very strong stench when you pass by Jelapang.A lot of bad Chi emanating there that's'why a lot of accidents happened there.Even when they shift the toll plaza accidents still happen
Just for thoughts only.
Why would Waythamoorthy,chairperson of Hindraf who flew the country and seek political asylum in Britain suddenly wants to come home.
Late last year and early this year he was sounding that he wants to come home.Then things went quite.Now he is reported to be on the way home.
Usually political refugees who seek political asylum in another country,will usually return to their own country when the regime they are fleeing from is toppled or out of power,but not before.
Has a deal been struck late last year or early this year and kept on the quite till now.From the way things are going it seems so.
I noted most of your swings are in favour of the loosely Pakatan.Not once you think thr swing of 3% or whatever are in favour of BN.Must not ignore the bigger swing of the weakened PKR and PAS generally overall.Swing in favour of DAP yes but not PKR and PAS.Dont forget the defections in Perak.How can PR contain that.
Scorpion
Tg Malim (Parliment) & Sungkai (State) for Pakatan !!!!!
- my vote helped to win Sungkai (DAP), but need to pile in the votes to get Tg Malim (from MCA)
- go pakatan go !!
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