The victor in Galas

I have been wrong only once in predicting the outcome of by elections. That was the election in Hulu Selangor. At that time I predicted Zaid would win. BN won that seat.

I hope I will again be correct in my assessment. It's nice to travel incognito. People open up and will talk to you candidly. They will tell you what's wrong with Tengku Razaleigh, PAS and UMNO. They tell you what's good about the candidates.

Even UMNO people accustomed to the heavy artillery and massive fire power approach are apprehensive. Muhyidin came over and remarked why is everything quiet? As days go by, people are beginning to think, this low key approach, face to face encounter with people in smaller groups is more effective. They say BN people are more sincere this time.

The by election is Galas will be between Abdul Aziz Yusuf (UMNO/BN) and Dr Zulkefli of PAS. The last time Pas won this seat by a 646 majority, most of it delivered by the voters in Sungai Terah. It's a PAS stronghold.

But at that time many issues had not be resolved. The biggest issue was the issue of housing. This time, the housing problem is largely resolved when PM Najib announced the construction of 1500 units of PRT housing. These will be given to 750 Chinese and Indian families and 750 to Malays.

The issue of the Chinese school in Desa Pulai has also been addressed. From now in it will also receive government funding. The temple at Desa Pulai with the 600 year old statute has been classified as a heritage asset. It will now receive funds from the Federal government.

If some people claim that we can discern people's support from how firm the handshakes are, that's just a little bit better that reading tea leaves and chicken entrails. When Anuar Tan shook my hand, of course I reciprocated with a firm grip. People respond in kind. If the handshake is feeble, people will also respond likewise. It's not the handshakes that matter.

UMNO and BN are undertaking a different approach in campaigning style. I have termed it as front porch or patio campaigning style. You engage people as people showing that you are sincere with the. Sincerity is looked upon as high on the list.

The Ku li Factor looms large in Gua Musang and Galas. The orang asli community does not want to entertain other than Ku Li or JHEOA. Even the PA to the Sports Minister was turned away from a certain event. Orang Asli see Tengku Razaleigh as a sincere politician.

I listened in to an animated conversation among PAS people. If Tengku Razaliegh wins this seat, it will be seen as a victory also for PAS. They see TRH as a person sympathetic to the cause of Kelantan people. He is likely to be less partisan in his dealings with PAS people. To many PAS supporters, Ku Li is one of us.

There are 11,553 voters with 127 postal voters. In terms of racial breakdown, there are 7125 Malays, 2317 Chinese and 1889 orang Aslis and 185 Indians. The Thais number around 10.

The majority of the Chinese will vote for the BN. I would put it at 65% or 1500 will vote for BN. The Indians will likely vote for BN. BN will secure some 160 Indian votes. This time around 55% Malays will vote for the BN. That will constitute about 3900 votes. Most of the orang aslis will vote for the BN. I would say about 75% of them will vote for BN. That's about 1400

BN will take home around 6960 votes. PAS will get around 4500 votes. BN will win this election by a majority of around 2300-2400 votes.

Where will the 2000 majority come from? Most of it will be provided for by the urban Malays around Bandar baru Gua Musang in Taman Wangi and the government servants. They will also come from UMNO members who went over to the other side during the 2008 elections.

Pragmatism will take a front seat. There is a renewed confidence in the leadership of Ku Li and PM Najib. I have to say that it's a clever and deft move by the PM in agreeing to put Tengku Razaleigh as operations director. It shows the PM is coming to terms with the influence of Tengku Razaleigh and isn't afraid to leverage on this asset.

I hope when Muhyidin comes here tomorrow, he will remind all UMNO members that their votes are crucial too in ensuring a BN victory. He must not forget home ground support.