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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Tuesday, 2 November 2010

The victor in Galas



I have been wrong only once in predicting the outcome of by elections. That was the election in Hulu Selangor. At that time I predicted Zaid would win. BN won that seat.
I hope I will again be correct in my assessment. It's nice to travel incognito. People open up and will talk to you candidly. They will tell you what's wrong with Tengku Razaleigh, PAS and UMNO. They tell you what's good about the candidates.
Even UMNO people accustomed to the heavy artillery and massive fire power approach are apprehensive. Muhyidin came over and remarked why is everything quiet? As days go by, people are beginning to think, this low key approach, face to face encounter with people in smaller groups is more effective. They say BN people are more sincere this time.
The by election is Galas will be between Abdul Aziz Yusuf (UMNO/BN) and Dr Zulkefli of PAS. The last time Pas won this seat by a 646 majority, most of it delivered by the voters in Sungai Terah. It's a PAS stronghold.
But at that time many issues had not be resolved. The biggest issue was the issue of housing. This time, the housing problem is largely resolved when PM Najib announced the construction of 1500 units of PRT housing. These will be given to 750 Chinese and Indian families and 750 to Malays.
The issue of the Chinese school in Desa Pulai has also been addressed. From now in it will also receive government funding. The temple at Desa Pulai with the 600 year old statute has been classified as a heritage asset. It will now receive funds from the Federal government.
If some people claim that we can discern people's support from how firm the handshakes are, that's just a little bit better that reading tea leaves and chicken entrails. When Anuar Tan shook my hand, of course I reciprocated with a firm grip. People respond in kind. If the handshake is feeble, people will also respond likewise. It's not the handshakes that matter.
UMNO and BN are undertaking a different approach in campaigning style. I have termed it as front porch or patio campaigning style. You engage people as people showing that you are sincere with the. Sincerity is looked upon as high on the list.
The Ku li Factor looms large in Gua Musang and Galas. The orang asli community does not want to entertain other than Ku Li or JHEOA. Even the PA to the Sports Minister was turned away from a certain event. Orang Asli see Tengku Razaleigh as a sincere politician.
I listened in to an animated conversation among PAS people. If Tengku Razaliegh wins this seat, it will be seen as a victory also for PAS. They see TRH as a person sympathetic to the cause of Kelantan people. He is likely to be less partisan in his dealings with PAS people. To many PAS supporters, Ku Li is one of us.
There are 11,553 voters with 127 postal voters. In terms of racial breakdown, there are 7125 Malays, 2317 Chinese and 1889 orang Aslis and 185 Indians. The Thais number around 10.
The majority of the Chinese will vote for the BN. I would put it at 65% or 1500 will vote for BN. The Indians will likely vote for BN. BN will secure some 160 Indian votes. This time around 55% Malays will vote for the BN. That will constitute about 3900 votes. Most of the orang aslis will vote for the BN. I would say about 75% of them will vote for BN. That's about 1400
BN will take home around 6960 votes. PAS will get around 4500 votes. BN will win this election by a majority of around 2300-2400 votes.
Where will the 2000 majority come from? Most of it will be provided for by the urban Malays around Bandar baru Gua Musang in Taman Wangi and the government servants. They will also come from UMNO members who went over to the other side during the 2008 elections.
Pragmatism will take a front seat. There is a renewed confidence in the leadership of Ku Li and PM Najib. I have to say that it's a clever and deft move by the PM in agreeing to put Tengku Razaleigh as operations director. It shows the PM is coming to terms with the influence of Tengku Razaleigh and isn't afraid to leverage on this asset.
I hope when Muhyidin comes here tomorrow, he will remind all UMNO members that their votes are crucial too in ensuring a BN victory. He must not forget home ground support.

15 comments:

Quiet Despair,  2 November 2010 at 16:27  

God willing Aziz will win with a majority of 2,500 to 2,650 or thereabouts.
Since the last few by-elections we have had, I am happy those whom I backed won. Hope I will not be disappointed this time.
After this, I hope Najib will reward Ku Li in some ways. Not monetary of course.
It's not right that only now Ku Li gets sound-bites from TV every night. And then fade into oblivion.
Give him the respect he deserves.
If Tun M had chosen Ku Li as his DPM instead of Anwar, there will not be divisiveness as it is now.
I hate to be repeating that Mahathir's greatest failure is to bring Anwar into UMNO and parachuted him to number two.
Time to make up for Ku Li's lost time.

Anonymous,  2 November 2010 at 17:53  

Ku Li as Prime Minister! How about it Dato'?
Najib, please give way!
Kan mudah macam tu, mesti ramai yang suka walau pun untuk sementara waktu before the take over by the opposition,But if Ku Li makes the right move and does thing according to the rakyat needs -bukan 100 storey building-just basic needs -possibility the power will remain status quo.
So, just wait till the D day. Buat sementara waktu UMNO lu fikir la sendiri.

sakmongkol AK47 2 November 2010 at 18:03  

anon 17:53

as much as i like the way you put it, i thnk Ku Li isnt looking beyond a victory for UMNO. he hasnt got any agenda other than recapturing UMNO's honour.
we need to assist the UMNO leadership. help Ku Li win Galas.

Quiet Despair,  2 November 2010 at 18:11  

Yes Sak. It's too little, very late.
Maybe Najib should give the Finance portfolio to Ku li.
At the next UMNO nominations for election, members can nominate him for President or Deputy President.
Good idea??

Anonymous,  2 November 2010 at 18:59  

Dato',
They have deprived Ku Li of his place for so long I guess by winning this by-election for UMNO, PM has a reason to give Ku Li some semblance of respect by acknowledging his contribution to UMNO. It will be a crime to let Ku Li fade away into the sunset even after he has wrested Galas from PAS. Should Ku Li fail, I guess it is time to let Ku Li ride away into the sunset on his own accord. The train has really left him by then.
Anyway Dato' I hope you enjoyed your incognito stint in Gua Musang with the most popular guide at your service.
Pak Tua.

Anonymous,  2 November 2010 at 20:22  

BN is not deserve to win!! They should be punished for corrupt practice...abuse of power...racial politics..and...billions & billions being wasted through corruptions..mismanagement.

BN has not changed. Why should voter let BN to win?

OneMalaysian,  2 November 2010 at 21:59  

Dear Sakmongkol

“There is a renewed confidence in the leadership of Ku Li and PM Najib. I have to say that it's a clever and deft move by the PM in agreeing to put Tengku Razaleigh as operations director. It shows the PM is coming to terms with the influence of Tengku Razaleigh and isn't afraid to leverage on this asset”.

I suppose your comment was confined only to this Galas by-election. If this were the case the role of Ku Li means little – about as important as Galas is to the entire nation. Ku Li’s appearance is just a cameo role.

But is there a bigger role in store for Ku Li on the national stage if he delivers Galas? That’s the important question. The answer depends on whether Najib thinks he can “leverage on this asset”.

How might Ku Li be an asset to Najib in UMNO and the immanent general elections? Najib has shown some liberal instincts judging by his attempt with 1Malaysia and the NEM. Let us for now accept this on face value. But this centre-left leaning is strenuously being challenged by Dr. M, Perkasa and a significant number of UNMO members. At the recent UMNO general assembly Najib has avoided talk about these two central ideas, and instead has reverted to his old oratory tricks. Remember his TPCA speech when he threatened to bathe his kris in Chinese blood? He was not so direct this time – he can’t as the PM – but the vow to “defend Putrajaya with broken bodies and lost lives” betrays desperation. Who is the real Najib is hard to tell – the liberal, suave scion of a prominent political family, or a weak-minded pretender to political greatness?

What is clear by now – and Sakmongkol has criticized much about - is Najib’s tendency to vacillate, lallang-like. If he ever aspires to greatness and wants to stand in the pantheon of the greats of this country his current form will surely fail him. He needs a backbone of steel. Leveraging on that asset called Ku Li might yet not be enough. Anyway, has he the courage to rehabilitate someone who might just turn out to be an opponent who claims his job?

Anonymous,  2 November 2010 at 22:44  

Anon...20:22

Sorry to say , I think TRH will win.

In this country, it does not matter how corrupted they are, so long as they give them goodies and deprive others of their rights and they have all the rights.. they go for it.. even if their daughters in very near future have to go overseas to work.

You can see bloggers here , you know who dont want to name names, they are just plainly blind supporters even though they know the ones they support are just plain incompetent and had done so much damage to the country all these years.

You all can easily see how a perfectly corruptless government can turn around the state like in Penang... but rather prefer to attack the one showing Malaysians how to government a country. They prefer the perpectual deficits governements so long as they get the scholarships, the previleges and the freebies.

That is the way it is.

Those guys in Galas, they dont care two hoots about the disasters facing them so long as they can get RM20 or RM100 to do the walk.

Anyway.. GE13 is just months away and these 2 by-elections will not be of much significance.

Anonymous,  2 November 2010 at 23:47  

Much as I love TRH to be Pm and he would have made a better one than that big spender racist Tdm , time is not on his side.People are expecting he can make wonders and move the earth. Forget it ! It was humiliating for him to go back to umno after semagat 46 and he has been punished all those years. He is being used again like recycled waste by umno . At his age being made in charge of Galas must be a big deal for him to be used.It's sad that they can still make a new sucker of him.

Anonymous,  3 November 2010 at 01:18  

BN kalah atau menang rakyat Galas akan senang. PAS jangan jadi bangang.Simpan duit untuk PRU13.

Greenbottle 3 November 2010 at 09:21  

you people are giving too much credit to ku li.

people in kelantan knows ku li well...when he was in Semangat 46 against BN he said many things about BN ..and later he brought his followers including kelantan followers back into BN . this caused a lot of animosity against him.

and he was bullied to no end by mahathir and ignored by pak lelah...and now by najib. and ku li claimed that he merely wants to be a "gurkha" in the party...so no position pun tak apa la...dia jadi coolie pun okey...so he's in a no win situation.

and that's the reason why he positioned himself as a maverick and says all those critical things about unmo. because he won't lose but brobably win some additional support (which he clearly does).

people in gua musang knows he's been used by BN in galas possibly to get rid of him for good (if he lost) .people in kelantan knows this and that ku li will NEVER be PM. he was and is being played out pure and simple.

another thing. malays in gua musang has been polarised since god knows when.

the only twist is the chinese votes. everybody is taken by surprised when the chinese gave their votes to PAS in galas in 2008. the question now is will it remain so?

and here's the crux...chinese can not be easily bought unlike the pitiful malays...(or at least when the price is not big enough)...

orang asli? some may be swayed back to BN... Indians? i met at least some that said they want tok guru and will make sure their orang asli employees vote for tok guru...

all these 'mee segera' in various guises by BN???

as a kelantanese myself i say this. kelantan people don't give a fuck about mee segera... you give thank you , you don't ..also thank you. we've been victimised for so long that we are immune to these kind of blackmails and insults.


so in conclusion...i think PAS still has a fighting chance.
I think PAS will win this by 200 votes majority.

Anonymous,  3 November 2010 at 09:49  

Dato',

You baffled me. One minute you accuse najib as a flip flop PM without any leadership qualities and now you sing praises of najib as in "There is a renewed confidence in the leadership of Ku Li and PM Najib". What gives Dato?? Are you also a flip flop person??

Anonymous,  3 November 2010 at 10:02  

This blog owner and KuLi are men without a moral conscience.
How could one side with a party that is morally corrupt to the core, which has compromised every single institution, including the Judiciary and MACC.
Why support a regime that closes its eyes to the gross wastages of tax payers money reported in the AG's report... year after year?
Why side with a racist regime?
This is not the UMNO of old. This is an utterly corrupt regime with a PM with blood on its hands.
Every single UMNO leader is tainted.
Our country's economy will crumble if UMNO is allowed to stay in Putarajaya.
This writer and Kuli will support the devil and yet lift his hands to God in prayer.

PH Chin 3 November 2010 at 10:47  

Dato'

If BN wins at Galas, I would say the victory is solely attributed to Ku Li.

He is more of a statesman than a politician to the 'rakyat' at Galas.

Red Alfa 3 November 2010 at 11:47  

Salam Dato'

So we are getting it right to win Galas. But aren't we getting distracted if just winning it has become such the want?

So the rumblings will be pacified and so support for UMNO will remain steadfast? So UMNO don't have to transform?

And so Rosmah gets to doing what she wants and quite so prime ministerial at it, too?

So any change will become very glacial, if ever?

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