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Sakmongkol ak 47

Sunday, 7 November 2010

A momentum yes, monumental shift not yet.


We need to distinguish between a crass propagandist and a sober politician. Ahmad Maslan fits into the former category it seems.

Ahmad Maslan, the UMNO information chief cited 4 reasons for the victory in Galas. The acceptance by the people, of the national leadership of Najib and Muhyidin. The influence of Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Mustapha Mohamad, the acceptance of the people of the various initiatives thought of by our great leader which will be implemented by the ruling government and so on. He was referring to such initiatives like 1 Malaysia, ETP and so forth. Finally, and here is the earth shattering observation- people are fed up of the politics of the opposition to the ruling BN. It's a triumph of moderation over extremism. One writer puts as the alarm bell for the 13th GE.

For whom does the bells toll?

People in Gua Musang and Galas in particular must be the most intelligent people in Malaysia. There must be something in the pristine air and the physical terrain of the area. Or maybe something in the diet of Gua Musangians. The nasi kerabu and berlauk at Restoren Kak Zah or the stalls near Fully Inn?

They understood the concept of 1 Malaysia when the same concept baffled Tun Mahathir and misunderstood by other Malaysians. The people eating at Restoren Kak Zah in Bandar Lama Gua Musang talking politics and cock understand and embrace the various initiatives by the national government. The people in Sungai Terah and Batu Papan are waiting for their ETP, GTP and whatever P's we can think of.

Gua Musang should be made the administrative capital of Kelantan then or perhaps be made a federal territory and developed into the east coast Putrajaya. There is so much good talent here.

In Galas, the people are roughly divided between Pas and UMN. The UMNO candidate secured some 54% of the vote while Pas commanded the balance. I can't read this as a monumental shift in preference. Pas lost 265 votes from what they got through the late Che Hashim. UMNO gained 1571. UMNO was able to capitalize on the larger turnout of voters.

In order to wipe out the 646 vote deficit, UMNO had to effectively secure 1800 votes. I had predicted UMNO to win by around 2300 to 2500 votes. My detractors were jubilant I was wrong here but curiously silent on my prediction that UMNO will win. The effective 1800 vote is close enough to 2300. Indeed UMNO could have garnered more than that, had the meddling by outsiders and internal sabotaging were minimized.

So to come back to what Ahmad Maslan said. I see no evidence of the validity in these assertions. What was at work in Galas last week was pure retail politics not wholesale politics. When Muhyidin came the first time around, he was astonished at the muted and subdued air about the election.

Retail politics involve the articulation and championing of purely local issues. This is opposite to wholesale politics where, national issues not directly related to local situations are aired. Perhaps Ahmad Maslan should direct his mind to these concepts.

The Chinese in Desa Pulai were not more motivated by people distributing leaflets on the circumstances leading to the death of Teoh Beng Hock. I suspect they were remotely interested in the issue surrounding the shooting of the late Amirul in Shah Alam. Of course, these are indeed important issues to those immediately concerned but hardly in resonance with people in Galas. The loss of loved ones is not light matter.

Chinese in Desa Pulai were more interested in the security of their land tenure. They were more concerned about the affairs and future of their Chinese school. The Chinese and homeless people in Gua Musang are more interested in getting housing faculties. The fence sitters in Gua Musang are more interested in seeing KESEDAR managed more efficiently and corruption weeded out.

If PAS and the other opposition parties to UMNO rule had been more vigilant and had paid keener attention to local issues, they could have made a big impact. Like raising the issues on the management and abuses of Kesedar. But they didn't. Gua Musangians are interested in this issue.

People in Gua Musang were more amused and probably entertained by the sight of Theresa Kok and her coworkers carrying DAP flags and banners around Bandar Lama Gua Musang.

My point is this. If we can and are eager to dismiss these attempts to foist national issues into ones of concern to local voters as useless irrelevance, the same ruling should be applied to the big idea, that this win in Galas is an endorsement of national leadership. No such thing.

This Galas by election is won on the influence of Tengku Razaleigh simpliciter and we are thankful he is an UMNO man. The majority of UMNO members in Gua Musang understood this and gave their all out. The people in Gua Musang in general understood the strategic advantage of giving a win to UMNO this time. Gua Musang is the only election area in Kelantan to have 100% UMNO/BN representation. PAS may grumble for a few days, but in the end sobriety will take over. Only permanent interests matter.


Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 09:22  

You missed out on the love for MONEY.

To many of these folks, national issues are remote issues and what have they got to do with current buy-election that is worth only a few months before the next GE13.

RM250 to RM1000 is not small change to these people. Just a simple X gets it. So simple who cares who wins after all like you said, TRH is a respected man even to Pakatan supporters .

So we have stated here before it is a no brainer issue when they picked TRH, the man who had been very vocal to the cause of fairness and PAS.

Many fence sitters would surely vote for BN EVEN if they hate it.

But when the GE13 comes, and there just isnt so much money around, then these same guys will know what to do when the "same" dues are not forthcoming.

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 09:51  

Sycophants come in all shapes and sizes. Some need money to be motivated while others need only to be pat on the head like a good puppy. Malaysia have a fair share of them. In fact we probably hold some record on this.

Instead of bragging all the crap about 1Malaysia that won Galas, Umno should recognize that Ku Li was the one who won the seat for them. Even the Chinese in Gua Masang consider him as "one of us". His status moved up quite a few notches after he started championing the oil royalty case in recent time. You were spot on in your article on BN chances. The question is, can BN still retain the seat in the next general election?

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 10:39  


Ah, but didn't you wrote in your previous articles that the people in Galas were impressed with leadership of najib? So why suddenly you disagree with Ahmad Maslan's first point that the people's acceptance of najib's national leadership? Are you also flip flopping like all UMNO people?

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 10:45  

You are right, it is not a monumental shift. Just a sway in the Chinese votes because they were promised housing by BN during the by election. Houses is a rare commodity in Gua Musang. There are not many house lots to purchase too even though you can afford to buy. The PAS government is reluctant to give land to those Chinese who are not Kelantan born and many of those who are in Gua Musang are from other states and came to Gua Musang during the timber boom and continue to live in Gua Musang due to the economic opportunities. In another word, the Chinese in Gua Musang wanted to teach PAS a lesson and live up to their pre 2008 election promise.
You are right too when you pointed out that PAS did not capitalize on the local issues like the mismanagement or abuse in Kesedar. PAS was reluctant to rock the boat lest they may lose the votes of Kesedar staff.
Ku Li played a significant role to stabilize UMNO Gua Musang as the UMNO war lords there would have gone for each others throat if any other candidate other than Aziz Yusof were selected. I wonder how Ku Li managed to subdue The Ketua Wanita, Ketua Pemuda and the previous UMNO ADUN for Galas who had been harbouring the ambition to be in Aziz Yusof's shoes.
Pak Tua.

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 11:00  

Dato', if those idiots in UMNO still fail to understand or just refuse to acknowledge that Gua Musang was won becoz of TRH then memang confirmed there are too many idiots in the party and troubles are all around come next GE.
This garrulous minister is one of a kind that will put UMNO into the drain. Never mind lets make this minister as a gamecock and let him die alone!
A momentum of monumental blockage created by UMNO dimwit!!! Ini yang buat orang meluat.

OneMalaysian,  7 November 2010 at 11:20  

Dear Sakmongkol

“My point is this. If we can and are eager to dismiss these attempts to foist national issues into ones of concern to local voters as useless irrelevance, the same ruling should be applied to the big idea, that this win in Galas is an endorsement of national leadership. No such thing”.

Over the past few days, there has been much crowing about BN’s successes in Galas and Batu Sapi. The margins of victory in both cases were impressive, and must have surprised the opposition. The big question is whether those results represent a seismic shift in support back to BN or were they the manifestation of special local factors.

In the case of Galas, there was no doubt that the Razaleigh factor played a big part. In the case of Batu Sapi there must have been a lot of sympathy votes for the widow. In a general election these special factors tend to get lost in a sea of national and local issues. In by-elections, especially in rural or semi-rural seats, local factors play a greater part in the final vote because these factors have a direct impact on the voters’ livelihood; national issues don’t mean much to less sophisticated folks.

So you are right. It is unrealistic to read too much into those results. But BN, humbled for so long by a long string of by-election defeats, is entitled to some self-congratulatory back patting.

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 12:08  


A good piece for Anwar Ibrahim .

Sedu,  7 November 2010 at 12:14  

Sikap Datuk Sakmongkol, sikap ! Mesti dia orang mau tukar sikap punya, kalau tarak macam mana mau tukar kan ?

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 16:40  

BN won because of KU Li.Nothing less nothing more.That information chief of yours tu tak kan lah nak kata hanya kerana faktor Ku Li sahaja BN won.Thats suicide.
To be honest, BN is going to win big time the next GE.Why?
Because the Opposition is screwed up big time.THose PKR goons are no different than some of the slimeballs and scumbags over this side.Another factor is even if PR do win and form the new goverment can they honestly get the civil servents to work the way they want? tengok Penang, Perak and Selangor sudah lah datok.Just go and ask how difficult it is to get the cooperation from the kakitangan awam.
Kesimpulannya, the majority of the sensible voters di negaraku Malaysia sudah teropong masalah ini. especially the chinese community.SO do u you think they want to gamble the future of their children, bizbiz and wang ringgit by giving their vote to a goverment which cannot function properly?
I dont think so.So bagi aje ler undi pada yang sudah tahu asam garam governing for the past 53 years.Janji manyak untung manyak senyum!

HAKIMAN,  7 November 2010 at 17:30  

Dato Sak

In Kelantan, UMNO is the enemy of the oil royalty. Ku Li as a Kelantanse royal, albeit from UMNO is a FRIEND of oil royalty for Kelantanise.

Oil royalty is the highest priority for Kelantanese for now and for the future. PAS and UMNO only matters if the oil royalty issue is settled in Kelantan's favour.

Ku Li has been a champion of Kelantan's claim for the oil royalty.

Galas win for UMNO is about oil royalty and Ku Li.

Thus when Ku LI was given the poisonous chalice to lead for the Galas by-election, PAS and the general public in Kelantan, not only in Galas had weighed the options... and decided to support KU LI, NOT UMNO.

UMNO is denial mode regarding the true reasons for its win in Galas.

All other reasons are spins and rubbish.

Galas win for UMNO= Ku Li's delivery of the oil royalty BEFORE the next GE. That is the price for giving KU LI to ensure his candidate wins.

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 18:38  

In any democracy, change is led by the intellectuals, thinkers and the educated.
In Galas and Batu Sapi, the change is being led by country bumpkins and illegal immigrants who don't have any inkling the meaning of justice transparency and good governance.
These by elections is won by exploitation of the "poor".
They picked someone without any political experience nor able to speak BM as their MP.

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 20:55  


Now PM has to give something BIG for Ku Li, but WHAT?

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 21:09  

Actually, looking at the numbers, there is not much sway away from PAS at all.

2008 election PAS 4399 votes
2010 election PAS 4134 votes

Difference of 265 votes is minute, given the weekday voting and voters understanding that the result doesn't change anything in the Kelantan assembly.

What boggles the mind is the 83% voter turnout and the 1571 increase in votes for UMNO!

Kelantanese must really love elections. The turnout in 2008 was nearly 81%.

Fishy, no?


Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 21:42  


Hmmmmm, by the same token, UMNO may win big in the next GE if Tengku Razaleigh takes over from Najib as PM.

He will surely get rid of all the Crap mooted by Najib and put in REAL measures to improve Malaysia.

Joe Black

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 23:07  

Dato Sak,
AMENO akan pancung TRH, sebabnya dema belajor sejarah ma. Masa Temasik di langgar todak apa pemerintah uat?. Dema pancung budak tu la. Ha.. tunggu apa lagi. TRH mesti dikorbankan.. He3..

Anonymous,  7 November 2010 at 23:40  

to annonymous 7/11/2010 18.38
Hello bro
Ni MALAYSIA.APa nak heran if the candidate tak boleh speak BM?
There are countless people sitting in the wrong place and calling the shots.ITs not about putting the right person at the right place.Just ask our noble blog owner Dato Arif.See where he is today? He should be sitting in the cabinet.But here he is , among others blogging about Kickboxing!
Apa nak buat bro?

Anonymous,  8 November 2010 at 10:51  

At the end of the day and at this moment in time, I personally feel that, with all due respect, it's all about the money...

Dire straits.

PANJI HITAM 61 14 November 2010 at 20:39  

'PM Najib must have a new team. And that must also include members of his staff.' Wishful thinking, Dato.

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