The Survey and the Bikini

When I was learning statistics for economists, my good professor said that statistics is like a bikini. That certainly raised the temperature of testosterone- laden males and caught the attention of the 15 of us in the class. You see, he continued...WHAT IT REVEALS ARE SUGGESTIVE, BUT WHAT IT HIDES ARE VITAL.

In a similar sense what the Merdeka Survey Centre Research did and what were eventually reported by the 'middlemen' media is like how statistics is perceived. What the MSM papers chose to reveal were suggestive but they failed or were negligent in revealing what are vital. Which is more important? To maintain the feel good float-in-the air sensation or telling the rakyat, the vital things concerning them?

Personal approval rating does not automatically translate into votes. There is much discontentment on the ground. The subsidy issue tops the list and if implemented will amount to a death wish by the PM and his administration. Is cutting subsidies however narrowly or widely defined they are ( Jala perhaps lumped everything the government spent as subsidy, while the MOF in an exercise of fine tooth-combing and selective nitpicking defined them narrowly so as to save the situation) a better option to reduce deficit spending? Cut the expenditure in building the new Istana is better, cut defense spending as in sell of the submarine, etc.

The Merdeka Center conducted its survey using phone calls. With almost everyone using hand phones, why limit the sample to just over a thousand respondents?

Go to the UMNO branches which are carrying out their annual general meetings now. So many branches in Kuala Lipis Division are finding it hard to meet the quorum for valid meetings. What about the meetings in Pekan? Most of them are quorum valid on paper only. What do these show? These show that conviction among UMNO members is waning.

People recognize the mood of the people at the moment is against UMNO. Many reasons:

• UMNO hasn't change its we know best attitude and therefore remains a cocky bastard.
  
• It implements stupid ideas- withdrawal of subsidies with the rakyat bearing the brunt,
  
• the introduction of the NEM which does not address the issues of Malay economic interests,
  
• The issuance of the Sports Betting License.
  
• Did the MERDEKA SURVEY reveal the cynical remarks from the public at large that PM Najib is fast becoming Bapa Perjudian?
  
• Finally, people are also fed up that talks about combating corruption are inversely related to efforts. That is, the more we talked about reducing corruption and increasing transparency, the less are we inclined to carry them out. Consider tenders. At what point do we decide that some tenders, because of strategic reasons are not done on open basis? Re: the Sungai Besi and Sungai Buloh Lands and the Matrade Land?
  

The point is, shoring up the personal ratings of PM Najib cannot hide the discontentment of the people who are more likely to translate their dissatisfaction into votes next time around. If the prevailing mood that is not favorable to UMNO continues, the discontentment will be translated accordingly.

What are the components of their discontent?

• 61% are not satisfied with the government's efforts to fight corruption
  
• 57% do not believe in the government's efforts to fight crime
  
• 58% are not satisfied with the way the police are handling the case
  
• 53% chose corruption above inflation, foreign investment and the environment as the No 1 issue to be tackled
  
• 76% believe the best company should get the government contract, regardless of race
  
• 72% think Bumiputera companies should compete for government contracts
  
• 66% think some contracts should be reserved and Bumiputera companies to compete among them for the jobs
  
• 45% disagree and 46% agree that the government is spending public money prudently
  
• Social problems in general (11%)
  
• Corruption, abuse of power (9%)
  
• Too much politicking (8%)
  
• Unity and communalism (7%), crime and public safety (7%)
  
• Prices and rising cost of living (6%)
  
• Racial discrimination (4%), management of national wealth (4%), education (4%)
  

None of these was reported in the main news stories. Also not reported:_

• 26 percent wants improvement on police and security service
  
• 23% wants affordable housing schemes
  
• 18% wants public infrastructure( transport for example)
  
• 17% regard upholding judicial independence is important
  
• 8% thinks media independence is important.
  

These were not reported. And of course the Malay papers are oblivious to these findings. They regard the survey outcomes as non consequential and certainly not worth the space on which to print them.

Malaysians will love PM Najib even more if these issues are tackled and revealed by the newspapers.