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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Wednesday, 22 December 2010

3rd Force: between the concept and the actual.

Malaysians on the whole have more affinity with actual political entities. They are more confident and comforted with a materialized organizational form like a political party. Something that has structure, policies and agenda. On the whole, they are less likely to be attracted to pure concepts such as for example the so called 3rd force in Malaysian politics?
Who or what is the 3rd force in Malaysian politics? Does it exist in materialized form with structure, policies and agendas? Or is the 3rd force more of the projection and extension of personal ideals and beliefs which are not unique anyway to the beholders. The same ideals and belief are better articulated and fought for by organized corporeal political parties.
I seriously doubt if RPK and his band of merry men, will make any impact on Malaysian politics. How does it exist? In a substantive corporeal form as a political party or just a 3rd force in concept form?
MCLM or the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement is at the moment a loose association of likeminded individuals moved by the concept of civil liberties and some understanding of what it means to be democratic. And at the moment, democratic means anything BUT Barisan Nasional or UMNO's policies.
I am not trivializing the motivations of these well intentioned individuals. The issues raised and the concerns voiced are undoubtedly pertinent and very relevant. But perhaps more suited to discussions in the PJ civic center or maybe in the private rooms at Le Bodega or the terraces of private clubs in Kuala Lumpur. Or in the forums attended by starry eyed university students.
And where will the likely constituencies of the MCLM be? Probably more suited to urban constituencies in small pockets of socially conscious groupings such as NGO movements, liberal PTAs, something like that.
They will face formidable competition from established political groupings such as PR, which is something more solid than just some intellectualized concept.
Malaysians with a well-grounded political experience based on political parties that exist in form and substance are likely to stay away from a nebulous concept of a 3rd force. What are its agendas? Its plans? Other than a coalition of individuals with a pronounced disgruntled objection to UMNO and BN.
Even the re-emergence of Zaid Ibrahim in a renamed political party will not make any difference in Malaysian politics. Zaid Ibrahim and his self-sustaining politicians and candidates will not stand a chance in the coming elections.
The optimism of 3rd force entities and Zaid's party is based on a misreading of our political mood.
The misreading stems perhaps fro over reading and unbounded optimism attached to the results of the 12th GE. I say perhaps we have over read the support for opposition parties as being a permanent shift. As such I think, there will a shift back of allegiance to BN and notably UMNO. When that shift happens, the casualties will the MCLM and parties such as headed by Zaid IBrahim.
UMNO and BN will not be able to recapture old political territories but they may be able to recover some lost ground. UMNO's success at that will depend on several factors but that will not be discussed here.
Where is the 3rd force really? In my opinion the actual 3rd force in Malaysian politics are the political parties in Sabah and Sarawak. They have tasted blood and they now know they can be the kingmaker in Malaysian politics. Whichever political parties win in Peninsula Malaysia will have to factor in the Sabah and Sarawak politicians and will have to accommodate them.

22 comments:

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 08:43  

Personally I do agree that the third force is a non starter in the first place.

Malaysia has yet to have a matured two parties (forces)system and a third force cannot exists unlike Britain which have had two party systems for ages.

Any such third force fielding candidates will lose their deposits for sure.

Another thing, I feel that they are just too arrogant and insulting especially to PKR (whatever their weaknesses are).

The way the third force demanded a say in fielding candidates will destroy any party that accepts them. So it is unlikely ANY candidate from the third force can be accepted by PR no matter how popular that one is including RPK if he somehow can stand in the next election.

Btw people votes for parties , and less likely so for the personality.

As to your view that UMNO has gained back, it is doubtful because that party is unsaveable and doomed to fail.

Tell us where has it reformed? Which part of the real world has changed? Nothing except rhetorics and lies.

1 Malaysia? - nothing but pure hot air.

NEP ? no change

Economic performance? Any area improved?

Loss of local capital and talents? still happening and not expected to change.

Corruptions? - one wayang Kulit case does not change anything.

Lately even more mega sized projects are approved on superspeed ... 40 billion projects going ahead at lightning speed.

You think those in charge really care for the country?

Think again. It is a lost cause.

Even PR is to take over, it would take a decade to reverse the damage.

The slide will continue and the Mother of all recession is on the way with US/EU are in deep financial troubles.

Latest weather change if prolonged would have severe food crisis on hand on top of bad economic situations.

Well maybe, just maybe, 2012 will be the start of the end of the world. LOL

Summary: Unless the country start to realise that a country must have the support of the whole country, it will sink. The current affirmative policy , just is not sustainable. But who listens.

PANJI HITAM 61 22 December 2010 at 08:48  

Sorry Dato, I have to disagree with you this time. Just look at Britain and Australia last GE.

Malaysians too have just discovered that they have chosen idiots (both BN and PR) as their rep in the last election. No more!

As somebody who has done the battle on the ground, I believe I am in better position to say " On the contrary..."

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 09:18  

What would happen if BN wins 2/3? Will they continue to rob the country’s wealth? I'm not too optimistic about the coming election and the possible results. If UMNO wins then corruption will continue getting worse. How much more oil or gas do we have? Should we worry about the future of this country? What will happen to Malay and other races?
Anak Malaysia

La,  22 December 2010 at 09:39  

Until and unless Umno get rid of corrupt and scandal ridden party leaders, any party or organization which has as its objectice to undo the damage wrought by Umno Baru since the early 90's are most welcome.

Umno lost its way and deviated from its raisons d'ĂȘtre ever since Mahathir formed Umno Baru. The fact that good Umno leaders like T. Razaleigh is rejected by Umno Baru members shows the corrupt mentality of Umno Baru members. To them politics is to enrich oneself and cronies. Anything else like public service is a mere charade.

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 09:46  

Are you implying that those starry eyed uni undergraduates are dimwits?Is it wrong to push foward for a change which will benefit all and sundry including you and me?Since those guys calling the shots like to compare the petrol prices with singapore, lets compare the PAP rule there.They have been the ruling goverment since day 1 , they also have the ISA but do you see the "rakyat" over there whinning coming out all kinda issues?
The answer is NO, because the basic needs of the people are taken care for.
The "rakyat" bukan mintak bunglow or BMW my dearest dato.Just a fair deal.Who put the people in office for the goverment of the day?So in return, run things well.Hormati rakyat sebagaimana rakyat menghormati anda.

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 10:08  

Dear Sir,

Your blog has become a must read for me. However while doing so I always get lost threading between the lines, literally. Would you perhaps consider leaving a space between paragraphs to make reading easier?

Thank you. Have a nice day ahead.

Red Alfa 22 December 2010 at 10:33  

Salam Dato'

Here's the plot of a book that has yet to be written... it's 2015.

PR had won the 13th GE but "BN/UMNO" had formed the National Security Council to govern under "Emergency Rule" to maintain "the Constitutional Status Quo"

BUT QE4 had failed and global economy is collapsing. While the country is already a few years technically bankrupt, Malaysians who had been and continued to be misinformed as to the "whats, whys" are confused and getting mad; nothing ever works, not even "the hows to survive the next day".

Malaysians are growing rebellious; the hungry and dispossesed are rioting and stealing from almost bare shops; anarchy reigns... then "order" will be forced and nothing will escape the hapless Malaysians.

Be surprised ... this would be the 3rd Force we were never allowed to talk about in late 2010!

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 12:23  

Hey Mister,
Don't be a fortune teller. Malaysian Politics is very fluid. It is also said a week is a long time in politics.

Between now and April, anything can happen. And don't forget the economy is not rosy as you rich UMNO people think.

Remember in 2008, not a single political analyst nor the newspaper editors nor the SB predicted the swing that we saw.

Yes, Raja Petra made some wild guesses and it came true. But who takes him seriously in his current predictions.

Remember, there was stampede in Gerakan as to who would be CM.

If BN can retains power, this country deserved to be damned.

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 12:58  

Dato'
You know and so the rest that UMNO has not change and Jibby continues with all the alamak susah mahu cakap la.
The battle cry now is CHANGE and definitely the King Maker is in the EASTERN FRONT.
Politic is about resources and it is clearly in the hand of UMNO/BN but history has shown that people power has altered the history of a nation. So it doesn't matter who win but there is a need of a leader who is politically motivated to impact changes in the name of national interest.
Doubtful Jibby fits into it but who else in UMNO? Many dimwits and pirate!!!
Just do it and Change. My prayer to GOD.

Quiet Despair,  22 December 2010 at 13:19  

Dear Sak

What 3rd Force?
A1 for this. My sentiments exactly.
Smarty pants aka smart alecs like RPK and Haris can dream on. They may be smart but politically naive.
IF DAP and PAS who have been around aeons ago cannot get the mandate to rule, I don't see how this sour puss band of self-professed intellectuals can do it.
Idealisms of democracy and civil liberties are good. But will the ordinary Malaysians fall for such high-faluting notions.
Will the likes of Pak Man the fisherman or Pak Lah the Felda settler and their families want to vote for people like Malik Imtiaz Sarwar.
I have watched the RPK video on the MLCM and was laughing all the way through.
He said the names of candidates will be announced one at a time, wee by week. Like serialised thrillers.
I gather he still does not have the 50 he wanted to be candidates. And what about him and Harris? Don't just talk, contest and see whether you are accepted by Malaysians.
I can bet dollars to donuts they will lose their deposit. Maybe some libertarians like Starbuck or Havana Cigar Club crowd will choose them.
If these people stand as DAP candidates, maybe a few can make it.
Malaysians are still not ready for loosely-formed spur of the moment entities without party clout. No proper platform, structures or organised unit
I very much admire intelligent people like Sak or King Ghaz as examples of UMNO brainers.
But believe me, Malays will still vote for people who act or think like them or they are comfortable with.
I was brought up in a competitive world but I feel I can trust more Adnan MB Pahang, Rastam of Melaka or Ahmad Said of Terengganu compared to this NGO-like people.
This is also prevaent in the US of A.
Obama is smart and intelligent but many Americans still want the simpleton, hockey mum Sarah Palin to take him on in 2012.

P.S. Its good that Zaid, Malik Imtiaz or their ilks will go for the jugular.
They will indeed put BN on the advantage.
Like the Americans say, it's the concept dude.

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 13:42  

A good take on the situation. To many, the third force is as blur as Najib's 1Malaysia. Sabah and Sarawak, more so Sabah are still in slumber but the potential to be the king-maker cannot be dismissed. Sabah issues are mostly old issues so things might not change so much, meaning that the BN will still do well there. But Sarawak has woken up to a certain extend and as you said, they have tasted blood. With all the recent disclosures by Sarawak Report on Taib's personal involvement in extensive corruption in which he has no even dare to squeak in protest, and his cronies stealing native and government land, the tide is surely turning. The possibility of it turning into a tsunami cannot be dismissed. Taib will fight for his life in the coming state election. And it's going to be a lot hotter than any previous elections with him throwing everything at his disposal at the opposition. The only thing that could distract him is perhaps his new toy, I mean wife.
BNPaloi

Habib RAK 22 December 2010 at 14:43  

Sak,
There is something uniquely different about MCLM. The candidates, even if they dont win the election, they still win because they would have pushed and nudged the winner to yield to the puritan values. Thus, we all would gain from them even when we belong to different political parties.

This offers Malaysians a new concious option. I repeat, its a concious option. You are right that BN will do all that is necessary to win lost ground. They will be focused to win it back from PR. But, the rakyat may abandoned BN and PR and choose MCLM candidates. They are civil society representatives and not political representatives.

If you were there at the MCLM forum yesterday at the Chinese Assembly Hall, you would be convinced that there is something refreshingly new about MCLM.

I think, MCLM would gain traction and the chances are high that PR would yield to allow MCLM candidates to take on BN.

It is my understanding that all MCLM candidates who have been named, will announce their constituency where they will stand, perhaps, as early as in January 2011. Once announced, they will get to the ground to campaign irregardless of whether the election is next year or in 2013. These candidates will become the "shadow' MPs and they will work the constituents. It will be transparent to both BN and PR to observe how these MCLM candidates perform.

The make-up of the selected constituency will be studied in detail in an objective manner. An action plan on how to disseminate information and to win over the voters will be drawn upto to the minute details. I believe, these will be done by volunteers and not paid staff. There will not be even reimbursements for petrol, food and drinks. There are many people out there who are keen to offer their time and service for free to help our nation find a better path.

Idealistic? Perhaps. But some of us are indeed idealist and we do exist!

zhenfeng 22 December 2010 at 14:48  

You guys don't seem to understand. MCLM is not a third force.

MCLM is SUPPLYING QUALITY candidates to run under the PR banner, not AGAINST THEM.

why the need to do so? because as DSAI has admitted previously, he found it difficult to find good, quality candidates to field for GE 12. hence we had the frog festival in Perak.

watch Haris Ibrahim's interview on youtube before making baseless comments like -"The way the third force demanded a say in fielding candidates will destroy any party that accepts them"
and "He said the names of candidates will be announced one at a time, wee by week. Like serialised thrillers."

If u still don't get it, then we'll just wait til 13th GE where there will be NO three cornered fights between MCLM candidates, PR and BN. and then, u will happily eat your words:)

cheers.

Zulkarnain 22 December 2010 at 15:03  

Concept is fine but it wanes out like a teaser campaign. If the concept is not deeply integrated into actual indulgence there will be discrepancies between concept and actual and results in disappointment, dissatisfaction, sadness, etc..

The 3rd Force should be a positive reinforcement to PR. Its concept must be interactive and should speak the same language and convey the same message. If not the 3rd Force would be a misfit and would be an advantange to BN.

In the end it will still be winning the GE13 that will attract the RAKYAT than anything else.

Asam Pedas,  22 December 2010 at 15:03  

Dato,

Perpetual politicking without substance will only do more harm than good for this country. While our neighbour down south just laughing due to arrogance of our politicians. Their country are the one will reap the benefits due to our stupidity....or at least make them look good.

donplaypuks® 22 December 2010 at 15:51  

It's always the case before a mighty fall that the incumbents fail to see and/or read the writing on the wall. The issues that created the tsunami at GE 2008 are still pertinent and relevant today - race based and racist politics, cronyism and abject corruption at the highest levels.

If MCLM offers clean and candidates of impeccable credential and integrity (like Malik Imtiaz Sarwar), believe me, many will vote them in. Substance over form will be everything, in which case race, religion, overt patriotism and Umnoputraism will count for nothing when voters head to the polling stations!!

dpp
we are all of 1 Race, the Human Race

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 18:04  

the second or third force we need now..and desperately so..is to stop the MRT works until proper study done & transparent competitive bidding carried out.

If not it will just be too late n the real beginning of DSIJ bankruptcy prophecy.

Greenbottle 22 December 2010 at 20:40  

britain third force looks more and more like a third FARCE....

and malaysian one certainly is....kacau daun saja...

Quiet Despair,  22 December 2010 at 22:20  

Greenbottle

Yes indeed. There's a crack in the British coalition government now with the Lib-Dems criticising the Conservative policy.
Bbarely a few months after the so-called unity government.
We will he heading that way if we have a hung parliament. God forbid.
It's better to have a clear victor. And I believe whole-heartedly what Najib says if BN cannot win, no one can.
The way I see it these MCLM intelligentsia are all syok sendiri. They will be making Parliament like a court of law.
I foresee delays of passage of bills because these smarties will be challenging on point of law.
The same delaying tactics Anwar is using on his sodomy trial to deny jutsice for Saiful.
Ever since Pakatan gets to rule some states and a bigger number as MPs, there are always quarrels with this member and that being suspended and staging a walk-out.
Who are they serving? Themselves, looks like.
The people especially the poor in the kampungs voted them to bring out issues affecting them not talking about this is legal or that is unlawful.
Today another lawyer Sreekant whatever who is relying on his father's name, M.G.G. Pllay, the famous journaist who is Mahathir's nemesis.
What does he know about the plight of the people and what it takes to be MP aside fighting for democracy.

Donplay Puks

In that same vein, you being a city slick are relying on the MLCM MP nominees to trounce BN.
In the first place how many of this cafe society bother to vote?
Being an MP means being with the people. Taking part in the rites of passage of your constituents like deaths, births, weddings etc.
Can you see this Zegna suited laywers menyinsing tangan gotong royong or menggaras periuk after a khneduri like the new MP for Galas.
That is what our beloved Oxford man Khairy is trying very hard in his Jom campaign in the villages.
Panting houses, repairing and sleeping and eating with the kampung folks. The campaign ended today at his Rembau constuetency.
I can bet you if go back to the kampung, the mak ciks will be praising amboi bagusnya Khairy, anak diplomat boleh tolong dan tidur kat rumah mak cik.
My conclusion of the MLCM is they are putting out the fire with gasoline.
David Bowie made the song famous.
Want to wipe out the BN, disillusioned with the Pakatan, aiming to help the Pakatan who are short of able and qualified candidates. But BN will benefit.

Lee 22 December 2010 at 22:24  

Why talk about the "third force" when a "Two party system" is yet to evolve?It is best to convince malaysians of the advantages of a two-party system, or more appropriately, a two- coalitions systems. The so-called " third force", if it ever materialized, will definitely benefit BN. We have to be realistic.It is far better to support Pakatan as a coalition in the 13th GE than to lessen the chances of Pakatan by trying to take part in the GE as independents.

Anonymous,  22 December 2010 at 22:32  

What's the point talking about 3rd force? The government have so many registered postal votes from the Army and RELA. I doubt our vote can make any dent to UMNO. Are we wasting our time discussing among ourselves when nothing much we can do? Are we on the slippery slope towards Philippine?

desiderata 23 December 2010 at 17:39  

Dear sakmongol: With ASSUMED AP from thee, I've reprised thy post at my cyberhome in the spirit of fellow BLOGGERHOOD!:) Hope you don't mind; will add my two sen's worth later,Chow!:)

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