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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Friday, 18 September 2009

Why UMNO can’t choose Isa Samad for Bagan Pinang.


It's not healthy for UMNO's long term interests.

UMNO will announce its candidate for Bagan Pinang after Hari Raya. UMNO appears to be more circumspect this time around in choosing its candidate. The debacle in the choice of its candidate in the Permatang Pasir election is causing red-faced embarrassment. An immediate effect is a lessening of noises and big talk from UMNO leaders.

I have written 3 articles about the coming Bagan Pinang by elections. In the first 2 articles, I have differentiated between UMNO's short term and immediate interests with its longer term agenda. In these two articles, I mentioned that if UMNO's single obsession is winning, then Isa Samad may be the chosen candidate. If Isa is chosen, something's got to give.

In a 3rd article, I said perhaps I have used the first 2 articles to test the waters. The general impression is the general public presses for new values that UMNO must adjust itself to. The mood which underlined voter's preferences during the 12th GE hasn't subsided and indeed it seems to have fortified into a hardened resolve. The public has punished UMNO for the endemic corruption that has permeated the corridors of power, rejected the abuse of power and looked with disdain at UMNO's overall arrogance, exemplified by the behavior of its leadership across all levels. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, the much respected UMNO leader has also given his thoughts on this matter.

In my 3rd article I wrote in the interest of its long term interests UMNO must adopt elements of the new nationalism- intense love for this country that results in an equally passionate rejection of things like corruption, bad governance, arrogance, abuse of power and advocacy for the rule of law, justice integrity, credibility and all that. It's imperative for UMNO to unreservedly adopt these elements of the new nationalism to ensure its relevance with the changing environment.

Because the long term interests are what UMNO looks out for, it must reflect this belief in a basic mater like in choosing the candidate for Bagan Pinang. It's true that UMNO stands a very good chance of winning if Isa Samad is chose. We have already said what his strengths were. But the one taint that comes along is not compatible with UMNO's resolve to adopt new values. Integrity and credibility being two of them, would therefore exclude Isa Samad from contention.

In my 3rd article therefore I have stated the possibility that Isa may have to give way to his son to stand as candidate. The son will still benefit from the clout and influence Isa has. He will get the father's support as well as support from his father's followers. His candidacy will also minimize potential sabotage from UMNO people.

He has to prepare himself from charges of being chosen on account of his father. He will have to confront the issue of dynastic style politics- from grandfather to father to son. But as our past experience in this aspect has shown- being the offspring of a previous leader hasn't disqualified many from being chosen and risen through the ranks. The PM, the Home Minister, the deputy trade minister, and many others are all sons of past leaders and that haven't barred them from coming on their own. The opposition party too is replete with examples of politicians being children of political leaders- Anwar Ibrahim, Karpal Singh, Lim Kit Siang all have children entering politics.

Because of these reasons, UMNO will find that it is in their best and long term interests to have a candidate other than Isa Samad but who is capable of leveraging on Isa's credentials. I have said who he might be in the 3rd article.


17 comments:

Greenbug 18 September 2009 at 20:54  

UMNO will continue to suffer a bad image from its existing leaders too who continue to irritate and ridicule the people's intelligence. One such person that is giving the people reason to hate UMNO is an ex-MB who just received a death threat letter.

Dato, why isn't the UMNO leadership do something about this ex-MB and his antics if they are serious about reforming the party?

analyst in green,  18 September 2009 at 21:54  

Dato',

IMO, it is this almost feudal-like "veneration" of children or relations of past great leaders that is leading to a dearth of talented leaders in BN (and also in PR to a smaller extent).

If you look back on some of the people who entered politics simply because they were the son, daughter, brother of so-and-so, the track record has hardly been encouraging.

In fact, if we use PR as an example, Nurul Izzah was given a shoe-in into the plum seat of Lembah Pantai on account of her father, and not her abilities. She was extremely lucky to be able to ride on a wave of discontent at BN by the rakyat.

In a straight fight she would probably have lost and lost quite badly against an experienced campaigner like Shahrizat. Suffice to say that her current performance as MP of an important area encompassing Bangsar, Kerinchi, etc has been firmly mediocre.

Ultimately, the man who you have named as your choice of candidate in the 3rd article has very little qualifications besides being his fathers son.

UMNO can only truly reform when you can climb the party ladder based on what you can do and not who you know or who you are related to. Otherwise the middle ranks (which are the doers) will be filled with incompetent hangers on.

PS: Luckily my party, PAS, has the least amount of respect for blood relations of ex-leaders, which I am very happy about. :)

Anonymous,  18 September 2009 at 22:04  

Isa will be chosen..

And the selection will show that UMNO is benevolent and a very fair organization.Isa had his past and have paid for the indiscretions in FULL.He is the BEST candidate for BN..he has the experience,savvy and support.Not selecting him will only prove that UMNO is unforgiving..UMNO subscribes to "once a thief will always be a thief" belief and UMNO disciplinary council did not mete out the correct justice.

The concept is once a man walks out of Sg Buloh he is deemed to have paid for his crimes and MUST be considered as fresh as a baby.

Choosing the son means UMNO has no principles..using a proxy to hoodwink the rakyat.

Guat Hoon 18 September 2009 at 22:29  

Dear Datok Sakmongkol,

The dynastic warlordism has produced inbreeding that does not bode well for UMNO.

As you have mentioned the Home Minister, I would refer you to Marina Mahathir's rantings on her Sept 7 blog: Where do we get Ministers like this?

Unlike opposition politician's children who have to fight the corrupt system and earn their stripes, the inbred UMNO politicians have been served with silver platter and spoon.

You still do not fully understand what the we the rakyat want.

Kala Jengking,  18 September 2009 at 23:39  

Greenbug, you are right but I don't think UMNO will do anything. We must remember that the party is feudalistic run by many warlords. And most of these warlords are under the payroll of the bigger warlords - the MBs/Ministers - through contracts, commission, allocation etc. And the MB is there because of the support of these warlords. Just look what is happening in UMNO Terengganu now. The warlords are trying to bring him down.

When Pak Lah was in the political wilderness in late 80's and early 90's, the warlords abandoned him. When he became DPM/PM, the warlords came back to support him - not because he is the best man UMNO can offer for the country but more for position and wealth. It is politics of patronage.

When UMNO/BN performed badly during the 2008 GE, the warlords went after his blood because they can no longer made money from the 5 states that they lost. This has become the UMNO culture. This is UMNO of today. It is a different UMNO that we use to know in 70's and 80's. Sad but true.

For B. Pinang, if there is only Isa and his son that can be considered as capable and suitable candidates in the whole bahagian then I feel sorry for UMNO and the people of Teluk Kemang. May God bless this country.

yb,  18 September 2009 at 23:44  

Got anyone with sensible brains? Apparently, there is a deficiency in the market now.

Take for example, of this someone, who had expressed his 'sadness' over the death of terrorist Nordin Mat Top..

And worse! this someone was upset for not being able to rehabilitate Nordin!

May I ask, to whose advantage?
What about the Mat Rempit?

Wenger J Khairy 19 September 2009 at 01:19  

Hi Dato',
I still think choosing Isa son's Najib will be political suicide. The track record belongs to the father, and so does the brickbats. What does the son have - only the fathers name.
If we say that fielding a candidate accused of money politics as being too close to making out UMNO as a party of corrupt leaders, fielding his son shows that its a feudal lot. And what if the son cannot campaign, and its the father campaigning on his behalf. PAS can have a field day making fun - calling it a Father and Son Company.

Now since TDM has disqualified Isa, I think the PM has no choice but to go for Isa.

Because
a) There is still the distinct possibility that an alternative candidate may do a Rohaizat. Then BN might as well pack up

b) If they go for the squeaky clean type (are they still around?), the warlord may decide to sabotage the election because the PM had deferred to TDM, (after all what happens if even those close to TDM are not as clean as made out to be and everybody knows about it but are keeping quiet about it. This is double jeopardy for Isa, whilst others chuckle along the way )

c) If they put the son, the Opposition will call it Father & Son party. I used to do business with a Father & Son outfit, it will be a joke, beause Isa will be doing the talking and the son will have to do a pengantin baru

So by game theory, that is by looking at all the possible outcomes, the PM has no choice but to go for Isa.

A loss here will be catastrophic. The PM is PM because he alone makes these decisions.

Anonymous,  19 September 2009 at 05:57  

Dato, choosing the son of a tainted father just to get the support of the father cannot be seen as anything other than trying to hoodwink the rakyat - it is still tantamount to 'winning at all cost' because if there was a better candidate, he would be overlooked. If the son wins, can we truly say that UMNO is on the brave path to reform or just prove that the warlords are still in power? More importantly, if the sons loses, would it be a loss with honor? While both you and Ku Li agree about the need for UMNO to be brave in choosing its candidate, I don't think he would have come to the same conclusion as you.

Selamat Hari Raya Adilfitri to you amd your family

NanaDJ 19 September 2009 at 06:39  

Dato',

If UMNO decided to choose Isa as its candidate, all I have to say is UMNO being a luncai will terjun dengan labunya - biarkan, biarkan!

If by now they have not learnt their lesson they will self destruct. The loss will be on us the Malays. But does the UMNO leadres care? They are only interested in themselves!
Silly and stupid statements by a certain Minister over the cow incident (which he did 360 degrees turn the next day and over Nordin Top) doesn't help. And to think that we come from the same tree. Malunya!
Selamat Hari Raya.

Suci Dalam Debu 19 September 2009 at 08:44  

Sir,

Judging by the reponses to your article, allow me to conclude that UMNO is indeed in serious trouble.

UMNO needs to break the egg so that it is 7-1 in peninsula. To get the 1 by ISA pun salah, by anak ISA pun salah.

UMNO sudah ketandusan modal untuk berjuang secara jujur.

Sir, how much do you think UMNO will be spending this time untuk meraih undi? Will it exceed the limits allowed? Will UMNO use government machinery to canvass for votes? Will they continue to abused the MSM?

The rakyat knows the truth, especially the younger generation. Only the senior citizens and kampong folks can be hoodwinked by UMNO.

UMNO can only count on the postal votes, not ISA or his son.

sun of RPK 19 September 2009 at 09:20  

"He has to prepare himself from charges of being chosen on account of his father"

Meaning son and UMNO is not sincere. Son has to tell FALSE stories about how he was chosen and it was "not on account of his father".

Looks like Sakmongkol too is slightly implicated (tainted).

Anonymous,  19 September 2009 at 13:29  

Sak, I thought UMNO loyalist will support party UMNO and not the candidate ? In this case, Isa is more influential than party UMNO itself. Won't it be more difficult for the PM to get this influential
people to "toe the line " when it is necessary ? The tendency for insurbordination is most likely to happen. Why is Isa's son not a known figure ? Support for him can easily go out the window when daddy's no longer around. The son should build his reputation on his own than he can succeed his father on his own capabilities

donplaypuks® 19 September 2009 at 13:49  

Dr.M has been repeatedly warning UMNO that it must change radically to survive.

Chief among these is the notion that the sons and daughters of "prominent" ex-politicians should be "allowed" to succeed their fathers and mothers (even if they were sacked for money politics oe worst crimes).

This old fashioned crony and nepotism infested politics must be abandoned by UMNO here and now if it wants to arrest the slide in its popularity.

The only consideration should be MERIT - is the candidate qualified for the post and does he have the experience, integrity, honesty and desire to serve the best interests of the PEOPLE, Nation and party? And if you look hard enough there are as many honest, capable, untainted and willing Malay candidates as there are people.

With the opening of the 1st Malay DAP Branch in Selangor, the battle is being taken to UMNO's doorstep. Another false step after Rohaizat in P.Pasir and it's curtains for UMNO!

dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human race

Anonymous,  19 September 2009 at 15:17  

PKFZ Issue Cabinet Papers
Submarine Deal
Sukhoi Deal

That a few billions too far to save BN.
...should be enough to submerge BN hopes?

And mercy,mercy,mercy..our soldiers not cared for...cos govt only cares about Permata Pintar,Mat Rempit and F1.Take out those programs and the rank n file army guys can hv a big big bonus year in n out.

Suci Dalam Debu 19 September 2009 at 17:41  

Dato Sak,

Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri, Maaf Zahir & Batin.

Zainal A. Kasim 19 September 2009 at 23:18  

Indah Langit Kerana Awan
Indah Laut Kerana Kebiruan
Indah Ramadhan Kerana Kerahmatan
Indah Aidil Fitri Kerana Kemaafan

Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri

C-bOk

sunwayopal 20 September 2009 at 16:20  

Said it some time back already.

This election is a god sent to Pakatan.

We are in a practically in a no-lose situation.

Lets see what UMNO decides. Frankly, the optimum scenario for Pakatan is for UMNO to select Isa and then in turn he loses!.

Go ahead, UMNO and Najib, make our day!!

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