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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Monday, 21 September 2009

Bagan Pinang- vote for normalcy


All UMNO needs now is to hand PR its first defeat. It will break them. It seems to me, the PR people are bringing up 1001 excuses to rationalize their coming defeat. Why should it bother them who UMNO chooses as candidate in this Bagan Pinang election? The PR people will still have to contend with the BN machinery. So why the noise about insisting the postal voters be given a fair 'space' to vote?

Because the PR people know that they have won and can win only in a chaotic environment. When UMNO was facing their own internal upheavals, the PR won up to 82 seats. Otherwise how would anyone explain the election of a joker like Gwo Burne whose only fame was because he recorded the conversation of a lawyer? Similarly there were many others who, under normal circumstances, don't stand a rat's ass of a chance to get elected, won. PKR for that matter may have been surprised themselves by the outcome of the general elections. They won simply because the political climate was abnormal. They won because UMNO weakens itself with so many ills and not because PR or PKR offered the public any substantive agenda. Any agenda they have, they make them up as they go along.

But once things get back to normalcy, PKR starts to get panicky. This is what the situation in Bagan Pinang represents. Things are getting back to normalcy. Postal voters represent a more stable political state of affairs. Soldiers and police don't get politicized 24/7- they are free from politics allowing them to pursue a normal life. This is the thing that is actually worrying Pakatan- the existence of a large pool of postal voters introduces a new element in the political situation- order as opposed to chaos. PR wins in chaotic conditions; it will lose when things get back to normal.

But there is one important proviso. I hoped that UMNO is conscious of the messages it got after being licked 8 times. If UMNO people go on behaving they are God's gift to Malaysia and relapse to its old debilitating habits, then Bagan Pinang can also prove to be its harbinger of death.

What do the PR people do? So, PR agitates for a change in the rules of the game. It must simulate uneasiness and unrest. Dig up something. That something is postal voting. It must be made out as something evil devised by UMNO.

Postal voting isn't a peculiar practice in Malaysia nor is it unique for Bagan Pinang. That's immaterial- it must be made out as something sinister. It disembowels public opinion, turn them against the government of the day, making out postal voting as something manufactured by the ruling government to disenfranchise the people. There must be something underhanded if soldiers vote for the ruling government. The truth is, if more military voters voted for the government- they are voting what they see as someone who is bringing back normalcy. The public can't tolerate an incessant stream of by elections preventing them from leading a normal life.

Suppose the normalcy that is found within the postal voting community affects also the mood of non postal voters- the ordinary general voting public. It will become a re-learning curve for the public; that they must recapture their normal way of life by voting in a government that proposes to bring order and structure. Bagan Pinang will be a start.

This coming win by BN in Bagan Pinang will expose the PR as a party which thrives only under abnormal conditions and that their extensive win at the 12th General Elections was just an aberration. This coming by elections, the Bagan Pinang folks are voting for normalcy. That's why they are voting BN.

There are 14,000 voters in Bagan Pinang. During the last outing the late BN candidate took a 2000 vote majority. In the 2008 elections the BN candidate got 6430 votes against PAS who obtained 4097. He had a majority of 2333.

Pas improved its performance from 1556 to 4097 votes. That's an increase of 2.6 times. For 4 years, between 2004-2008, they managed to convince another 2 for every one fellow they had, to subscribe to PAS's cause. UMNO managed to improve from 5967 to 6430. That's an increase by 1.08 times. Meaning they have succeeded to get another 1 person to the existing one to convert to UMNO. PAS therefore assumes that this surge in support is indicator of their acceptance. It forgets that UMNO did too, though by a smaller margin. People still believed in UMNO.

It would however be a mistake to infer from the PAS figures, that more people subscribed to their cause because they BELIEVED in PAS's intrinsic agenda. PAS knows it has done nothing other than being a fortunate beneficiary of UMNO's own implosion. Hence, PAS's improved showing from 1500 votes to 4000 votes was at best a qualified performance. It wasn't obtained through PAS's intrinsic accomplishments- they have done nothing there. They were just there at the right time and the right place.

PAS knows this but they want to convince their partners they can convert more people to their cause. They think they can convert another 2.6 times the previous votes they got. They want to get another 4000 votes and those votes they can get only from the army votes. They seem to be cocksure they can secure these votes and they are clamoring for many things regarding the postal votes. PAS is banking on winning if it can get the army guys to vote like civilians.

I believe UMNO will sort out its candidate. I am certain it will not be Isa Samad and that will neutralize the sting from the opposition. If any other candidate than Isa is chosen, more so if Najib Isa is, the Pakatan people will not be able to overexploit the issue. The Keadilan and DAP practices the same style of dynastic politics that UMNO stands accused.

How does that affect PAS? As one commentator said in my blog, he is feeling lucky that his party (PAS) doesn't practice this kind of dynastic politics. It affects PAS because PAS is associated with the group that practices them. PAS faces the same affliction they accuse UMNO of- that by being an integral part of a larger group, it falls prey to the old Malay adage- 'one buffalo covered with mud, will also cause others to get strewn with mud'.

PAS shouldn't be swell-headed into thinking they improved in Bagan Pinang in the last election as a result of their own efforts. They benefited from (1) the general disapproval of the rakyat of the government (2) because they also benefited by being part of the PR team. On its own, PAS has nothing to offer other that the usual ammunition of religious sanctions. These things don't bring food to the table. Pragmatic practical ideas and temporal ideas do. Normalcy does.

Soldiers who vote are not mere putty you know, malleable and easily shaped into submission. Despite being under the 'regime' of postal voting where many voted for the government, many too voted against the government. Therefore you can't say, that because postal votes are handled the way they have always been, the votes are sure to go to the BN. The BN foot soldiers are facing the same barriers as the opposition does. They can't go into army camps to campaign. How much can one defense minister accomplish?

This postal voting issue is just an excuse offered ahead by PAS to blame UMNO for its loss.

36 comments:

Y1 21 September 2009 at 09:44  

Dato'
Salam Aidilfitri

The reason in my opinion that PR did so well in the last general election was because many are getting fed up with the BN and all its perceived chicaneries especially corruption and power grab to enrich itself, rather than serving the rakyat.

The reason why poster votes are not democratic is because the voters are not able to vote without fear and favour, which is a pre-requisite for democratic process.

I don't think too many voters are bothered with who is the UMNO candidate except UMNO itself because of its infighting and disunity. Of course thinking voters will not vote for a candidate who has a proven history of vote buying, will you? But of course not too many voters think. That is the sad scenario for Malaysia today.

besi buruk,  21 September 2009 at 10:05  

Well the postal votes may be PR's achilles heel in that there are many controversies surrounding it and totally not in the opposition's favour yet one must also remember that voting falls on a Sunday and the anak bangsa Malaysia being back in force to vote. Further to that our youth must never be underestimated. And its a mixed constituency anyway while the Good Sir is talking about the already defunct feel good factor. Sir, there are still the other issues and almost everybody now reads the net. Salam

vinnan,  21 September 2009 at 10:26  

What Excuses.

If UMNO cannot win BIG in a constituency with 5000 postal votes making up one third of the total votes, UMNO is truly fuc';[' useless.

I live in an area with army and police camps. WE ALL KNOW these personnel are not allowed to vote freely. I do not wish to go into details here, suffice to say their votes are 'monitored'.

Najib is so worried about Bagan Pinang that he had to give RM 500 as 'bribes' to ensure the postals votes go UMNO's way. See how fuc';[] dependent UMNO is on postal votes. WE see UMNO for the pondans that they are. Without the PDRM, MACC, Armed Forces and RELA UMNO would have died a long time ago. Force and gerrymandering kept UMNO in power for a long time.

UMNO better win big, much bigger than in the 12th GE. If UMNO cannot do so then UMNO must prepare for its own death.

Zamany 21 September 2009 at 11:16  

Sir.. I Agreed.
PAS should not wiening like a bullied boy. i quite convince they can win this seat but only if they work closely together with other PR partner. last thing they need now is Hasan Ali's type of stupid statement.
dont get me wrong. i am a strong believer of PAS struggle and i'm with them all the way.

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 11:32  

Dato,

Selamat Hari RAya AidilFitri, Maaf Zahir Batin.
It is not the abnormal situation of the election. UMNO is 65years old man inflicted with cancerous disease due to indulgence into its present lifestyle. Those inflicted organs need to be eviserated or transplant with new organ. Period. This is what the ordinary rakyat feels. DS Najib needs a surgeon to advise him.

Cheers

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 11:47  

UNMO represents corruption. Malaysian vote for PR coz we want change. UNMO is driving Malaysia to its darkest hour.

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 11:48  

sakmongkol

u know very well, umno wins only bcos

i) postal votes (blind loyalty; fear of military repercussions; marked ballot papers - big brother is watching).

ii) kampong folks do NOT know the real issues - alternative media is severely lacking.

iii) ketuanan melayu. kaum lain, 2nd class citizens.

if umno is all-so-powerful and has repented,

a) do away with postal votes.
b) let them soldiers come out to vote just like any other civilians (the emergency was decades away for god's sake!!)
c) let pakatan rakyat has access to the msm too.

I DARE U!!

4RAKYAT

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 13:33  

If postal votes are not such a big deal as you say then why don't the election commission just change the system and get all postal voters to vote like ordinary voters and allow all political parties access to these voters during the ceramahs etc.
If that is done and UMNO/BN still wins then once and for all PKR will have to shut up and cannot claim all postal voting is an unfair advantage to UMNO/BN.
So why not push the election commission to abolish postal voting except for those overseas or are actually at the borders protection our country etc.

katdog,  21 September 2009 at 14:34  

Postal voting is an incredible anomaly in Malaysia. So Bagan Pinang with it's whopping 5000 postal votes from servicemen in an army base (and technically non residents) is a far cry from normalcy in voting patterns.

Malaysians citizens abroad aren't even provided with postal votes. They are required to physically return home to vote. However, amazingly, Indonesia provides postal voting for its citizens abroad.

Indonesia can do it but Malaysia cannot? Does that mean Malaysia is more backward than Indonesia today?

Suci Dalam Debu 21 September 2009 at 14:38  

Sir,

Deep in your heart, you want BN, especially UMNO to do well.

It is only partly true that a rag-tag PR team beat the daylights out of BN in GE12 because of BN's own short comings. If the election had been fairer, less gerrymandering (well I was "shifted" to vote for someone more than 10 kms away!), less dependency on postal votes, PR would be the government of the day! This much I know is the truth that did not happen.

Sir, you know more than me the actual reasons why the free people of Malaysia to desert this corrupt BN government. The postal voters are not so free lah.

If BN can win BP, it will do a lot of good to both BN & PR. Both will then strive to serve the rakyat better, unless UMNO wants to squander away the goodwill ass Badawi did after 2004.

As Vinnan said, if BN cannot win big in BP with the presence of 5000 postal voters, it will only means that the nails are almost completely nailed into the coffin.

Patriot 21 September 2009 at 14:40  

I thought Sakmongkol was different from the other UMNO goons, but looks like I am wrong. Normal? How can it be normal when the voting pattern of the postal votes are abnormal - way above the average of the general population, a clear sign that postal voting by army and police is absolutely abnormal. It is a result of non-transparency and intimidation because the postal voters vote is not secret.

In how many constituencies did this happened, the opposition won initially, but towards the end when the postal votes comes in, the table is turned with a win for Barisan Neraka.

Patriot 21 September 2009 at 14:55  

It is sad that there are still Malaysians that would vote for such a corrupt party, one that had swindled so much of the nation's wealth. If not for Barisan Neraka's piracy, Malaysia would have been ahead of Singapore instead of being way behind. Well if Malaysians still insist on voting for such a bankrupt party and coalition, well, they deserve the horrid government they get.

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 18:02  

Macam main bola la...kalau Bolton, Hull, Portsmouth menang sekali depa akan kata "turning point" tapi sendiri mau ingat la lepas tu...

me 21 September 2009 at 18:24  

Normalcy is relative.

What's normal today wasn't 20 years ago.

So what you want isn't normalcy, but the status quo.

And you can't simply ignore the various documented instances of undue coercion in making voting decisions for members of the armed forces.

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 19:23  

Dato'

I have been following your writings for sometime due to the fair views you provide...but NOT this time...anything the matter? Hope you will correct your statements as Dr. Rafick. http://rights2write.wordpress.com/2009/09/18/malaysian-election-and-army-votes-ii/....being ex forces confirms the voting MAY NOT be fair...Can you confirm or deny what the good doctor wrote?

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 19:50  

Dato',

There is one article on Malaysian Today website written by Dr. Rafick who used to work in the RMAF about 10 years ago. Dr. Rafick explained how they were subjected to threats and pressure to vote for BN only.

For some of the army guys, they don't even get a chance to vote....someone else did the postal vote on their behalf.

If this is not cheating, then, what is it? BN/UMNO is only good at cheating and they will continue to do so in their desperation to win.


Dato' ...I like all your past articles....all fair and level-headed. I am taken aback by this article which is so pro-BN. How come?

Look at the BN/UMNO clinging onto their seats to enrich themselves with taxpayers' money. How could you like them?

Please put some energy to help PR win this forthcoming election and GE13. The Rakyat has been tortured, raped, robbed and stepped on for far too long.

Hope to see you reverting back to your normal self.

A great fan of your blog n articles.

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 19:59  

At the last general election, people voted for PR because they were sick to the core of BN and its excesses. They would have voted for a tree stump instead of a BN candidate. I should know - I was one of them.

looes74 21 September 2009 at 21:37  

Patriot,
Sak reminds me of General Percival during WWII. Mind you Yamashita is fighting with lesser forces. It's a psychological warfare
Deep down Sak is worried too. PR is just like the present day Singapore armed forces or General Yamashita. Always on the move.

Sak,
Remember the last stand in Singapore during World War II where Yamashita sweep through the west while making diversion in the east
Right now Isa Samad's issue not settled. Sak, Isa chosen. Isa won......Who will be the MB? If Isa not chosen, Sak, you sure Isa's force won't break force

Patriot,
Lets sit & back & see how it unfolds. If you are free, join in the fight against BN. In WWII term, it's almost reaching the Rhine

Anonymous,  21 September 2009 at 21:44  

AK 47,

I voted PR in the last election because I thought PKR/DAP/PKR totally different from BN. Only know I got it right on my earlier suspicion that PR is nothing but a bunch of 'worse than BN' in the making. Unless there is a new one (a third political coalition) which is supposed to be the real non-hypocritical lot and ever willing put aside rhetorical politic for the benefits of the rakyat therefore, might as well the rakyat vote for the status quo instead of messing up the political landscape for personnel and emotional reason.

Middle Class

Greenbug 21 September 2009 at 23:36  

Soldiers who vote are not mere putty you know, malleable and easily shaped into submission.

If such is your belief Dato, why do you disagree so vehemently to PKR's request that these soldiers vote OPENLY?

Greenbug 21 September 2009 at 23:41  

Dato Sak,

I notice there is a significant shift in your writings from one of non-partisan writings to one sounding quite desperate to please the power-that-be? Are you OK or too much lemamng and ketupat?

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 04:15  

A voter can be influenced by or coerced into making decision that is quite opposite to what they intended to do in the very beginning.

For example, suppose a voter has made up his mind to vote for the BN candidate but due to some kind of harsh treatment and coercion by PR who herded voter into the "pondok panas" and thus because of that the voter are forced to change his mind unwillingly!

Therefore instead of voting for BN but due to a biased circumstances this person simply caste his vote in favor of PR that is something he will never do in the first place if his initial decision has not been rigged by the opposition party's last minute scare tactic campaigns.

So, what is this come to mean? Yes, every party will take advantage of his opponent weak spots. That is just part of the game. And every party will use any strategy available for maximum benefit. So what is the beef?

Antihipokrit

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 05:57  

Dato'
Raja Petra wrote an article titled "A challenge to the Malaysian government to explain this", dated 24 Aug 2009. It makes an interesting and worrisome read.

It was about the discovery of a vessel loaded with arms (machine guns, pistols, etc) and he was requesting that PR officials question BN in Parliament.

Commentors then said that these arms could be :
a) bound for another country; or
b) for the build-up within Malaysia in case of need such as training and arming the RELA guys. Beware, these RELA guys can be mobiised with these extra arms to start a riot or emergency comes GE13.

For your convenience, here's an extract of the worrisome discovery. How can this be normalcy?

continue in next post....

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 05:58  

...continue from previous post....

But I am not too concerned with all that. After all, this has been going on for 40 years. All our neighbouring countries know about how Malaysia has been meddling in their internal affairs and has been assisting the guerrilla groups. Why do you think Thailand helped Chin Peng and his CMP guerrilla army? That was a tit-for-tat for what Malaysia was doing with the Muslim separatists in Southern Thailand.

What I am concerned with is the latest revelation of the Malaysian government purchasing millions of rounds of ammunition and tens of thousands of pistols, submachine guns and stun grenades. And this is the Malaysian government’s ‘shopping list’:

9mm pistols & accessories
9mm submachine guns & accessories
7.62mm sniper ammunition
9mm para subsonic ammunition
9mm para hollow point ammunition
Stun grenades One-Bang
Stun grenades 7-Bang

Now, there is nothing wrong with governments buying bullets, pistols, submachine guns and stun grenades, even in the millions of rounds and tens of thousands of pieces like what the Malaysian government is doing. All governments do this, even the Malaysian government. But this particular cache is not being procured through ‘normal channels’. There is no tender being called for this purchase. It is being negotiated through ‘underground’ sources, the way illegal organisations or terrorist groups would normally do.

Why would Malaysia want to by-pass the official or legal channels in buying all these guns, ammunition and grenades? Are they meant for illegal purposes? Are they meant for onward transmission to terrorist groups that Malaysia is supporting? Or is the final destination of this cache of weapons Malaysia itself?

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 05:59  

continue from previous post....

This is most alarming. They most certainly can’t be for the Malaysian security forces. If they were then the government would buy them through an official tender and from authorised or legitimate suppliers instead of through underground sources. But if they were for foreign terrorist groups then for sure Malaysia would not want to do it the legal way because then they can be traced back to Malaysia.

What is most worrying is the recent announcement that Umno intends to send its Youth Movement members for paramilitary training. Does Umno intend to train and arm its Youth Movement? If so then what is the purpose for doing so? And is this latest ‘underground’ procurement of millions of rounds of ammunition and tens of thousands of pistols, submachine guns and stun grenades part of this plan?

The Malaysian government needs to reply to all these questions. The rakyat can’t remain silent about this very alarming turn of events. We know that there are moves to buy these armaments. That, the Malaysian government can’t deny. To deny this is futile. But what we do not know yet is the reason the Malaysian government is buying them on the ‘black market’ and whether these would all finally end up on the streets of Malaysia in the hands of Umno Youth who would soon be trained on how to use them.

The Members of Parliament from both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat need to demonstrate outrage. This is not just about swindling the rakyat out of billions of our tax money. That, after all, is only money. This is more serious. This involves the nation’s security. Government’s cannot turn rogue by dabbling in illegal arms and ammunition purchases without explaining what they intend to do with enough firepower to start a civil war in the country.

Lim Kit Siang, Anwar Ibrahim, Abdul Hadi Awang, and all those presidents of the non-Umno component members of Barisan Nasional…hello…can you hear me? Please get to the bottom of this matter and demand that the government explain itself.

Don’t deny it. Don’t issue statements that the police will be asked to investigate this latest ‘lie’ from Malaysia Today. This is no lie. We are aware of what you are buying. What we want to know is why you are buying them and what you intend to do with them. And why are you going onto the black market to buy them from underground sources if there is nothing sinister about what you are doing?


Dato' please do something to allay the fears of the Rakyat.

Thanks

Siebel.

allen ng 22 September 2009 at 08:26  

Don't count the chickens before they are hatched,friend!To me BN would face the waterloo in this by-election as the people in Malaysia are already fed-up with the ton of scandals hidden in the cupboard.

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 09:18  

Agree with you Dato'.
As a former Bersih Strg commitee and RPK fan club organiser, I can personally attest that PR is getting too power greedy.

I also agree with you that PR won becos the public hate BN and not for the love of PR and RPK have mentioned that many times, BN lost because of hate factor.

Nevertheless, UMNO to buck up before Rakyat lose confidence in them again but next time will be for good.

Let the showdown begins. He, he.

Anonymous,  22 September 2009 at 13:45  

Ur article merely reflect ur negative attitude towards PR as u were an ex UMNO and assembly man. U have missed the fact that the convincing win of Najib himself in pekan was due to shifting of army votes to his consituency. The poster votes were obviously used to strenghtened a certain BN politician voting district or area. The election commission has always been biased and lean towards BN and the ruling government. In fact the military votes should be spread in accordance to the addresses of their original homes not shifted to the fancy of ruling politicians.

looes74 22 September 2009 at 20:16  

Anonymous,
Sak is always UMNO member. Like the last day loyal Qing Empire mandarin, Loyal to Manchu overlord to very end.
I am just waiting for Sak to transform into Stauffenberg. You watch Operation Valkyre. Perhaps, Operation Valkyre style would be the last resort for Sak's beloved UMNO. Meanwhile, Pakatan Rakyat like the Allies are pouncing towards the Rhine.
Of course, setback is expected. Operation Market Place is one of them. Even US Airborne troops kenna entraped by De Germans in Bastogne while Patton racing to relieve them. 4 American tanks standing firm repelling the onslaught of Germans in the Battle of the Bulge. WWII can be one heck of the story.
I have mentioned before. Stand Firm & you shall see the destruction of the enemies before you. They shall be your foot stool. Biblical stories can be very interesting. Muslims too are exhorted to read. Quran says so.

Allen,
You are right. It can go either way. You see if Isa got his hulubalang2 too....If Isa & his son not chosen, his hulubalang2 chosen, apa macam? If Musa Hassan's hulubaang2 chosen, then how? If hulubalang not from both of them then how?
Plus the advance of internet, armed forces ain't isolated you know.......It's time to grit one's teeth. I mean UMNO

BaitiBadarudin 22 September 2009 at 20:53  

salam aildilfitri, saya telah lama tidak mengikuti perkembangan politik di malaysia, tetapi tentang pilihan lagu-lagu di sisi kanan cukup mendayu-dayu!

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y 23 September 2009 at 03:04  

The claim that postal votes are going to be rigged in favor of the BN is highly plausible. Not withstanding the BN's rich election machinery.

Really,who is in the advantageous position?

PKR's complain is politics 101.

Conditions have been abnormal for the last 50 yrs....

Anonymous,  23 September 2009 at 11:01  

I think it's a good thing that BN won in BP. Thus, after winning, all feelings before 12th GE would come back and all support before 12th GE has came back to BN too and blah, blah and blah. Arrogance also come back and so does media frenzy to report "BN is BACK!!" and once again, the reform takes not the backseat but they have to hitch hike now.

Good for BN so they can continue to rot.......

Anonymous,  24 September 2009 at 00:26  

Anonymous said...

"Raja Petra wrote an article titled "A challenge to the Malaysian government to explain this", dated 24 Aug 2009. It makes an interesting and worrisome read."

This is nothing new. RPK used to challenge all sort of peoples except himself. Come on bro, if he is a man of his word by right he should have challenged himself so as that he would be gentleman enough to answer all charges brought against him. Would he? No?

In conclusion this man is all talk. The only good thing about this guy is that he talk the talk and walk the walk. You get what I mean, huh?

Fence Sitter

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y 24 September 2009 at 11:04  

Another excuse is, "ARE federal earnings funded by taxpayers in Pakatan Rakyat (PR) states returning to benefit the public in those states?"

See
http://www.thenutgraph.com/sidelining-pakatan-rakyat-states

Anonymous,  27 September 2009 at 14:16  

nice post. agreed!

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