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Sakmongkol ak 47

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Sunday, 16 August 2009

What to avoid in Permatang Pasir.

The danger of a near miss is that it makes you overconfident. Hence in his rousing speech when announcing the BN candidate for Permatang Pasir, DPM Muhyiddin said he was congratulated for a near win in Manek Urai. He said it was strange for him to get congratulatory messages for a loss. You can't miss the gloating he made. He was referring to the near miss of BN winning Manek Urai last month.

I have written about the danger of treating Manek Urai being a swallow amounting to a summer. There were many unique factors in Manek Urai you can't find in Permatang Pasir. There, it was almost 100% Malay constituency with a substantial portion coming from KESEDAR schemes. People in land schemes are easily controlled and disciplined. My personal reading is, if despite the large number of KESEDAR voters, you can't win, there is no reason to crow.

In Permatang Pasir there are no FELDA or KESEDAR clones.

There was also another peculiar tactic in Manek Urai. There was a long pause between the vacancy in the seat and nomination and voting day. The long pause allowed UMNO ground troops to carry out sterling campaign.

UMNO strategists have forgotten this. I would have liked to see the legally allowable period between vacancy and nomination and voting be pushed to the maximum. That will allow the UMNO Permatang Pasir troops to replicate what was done at Manek Urai.

Kelantan had Mustafa Mohamad, a blameless soul not easily disliked even as he looks nerdy. Permatang Pasir has the warlord ketua bahagian Jalil Abdul Majid. According to a political activist, Firdhaus Christopher Abdullah, Dato Jalil who is regarded as the UMNO warlord is generally disliked by voters. He also mentioned the displeasure put up at Zaid Hamidi's shortlisted candidates. Rohaizat Othman may not have his work cut out for him after all.

The campaign in Manek Urai was an exercise in humility. That must have been very difficult for UMNO- to behave humbly that is. UMNO campaigned less nosily save for the pomposity of UMNO's information officer. I am almost moved to ask him, wak lan, aren't you going to tap a rubber tree or stay at locals' houses this time? If there's no tree, do a samy vellu- plant a rubber tree and then tap it.

That night I watched the announcement of the candidate. DPM Muhyidin was in his most strident form. Continuing his harangue on Anwar Ibrahim, the man whom he once loaned his oversized batik shirt, he repeated his drumbeating. He made oblique reference to the fact that Permatang Pasir is in Permatang Pauh and UMNO promises to deliver a loss to the former DPM.

But DPM Muhyiddin is also a man on trial here. His recent utterances to his former team wawasan leader will be the subject of trial in the people's court. You are coming into the man's area, trying to strike a chink in his armour and you want to call him names?

He has called Anwar a traitor to the Malay race. I am an UMNO man- I can't convince myself to label another Malay a traitor to his race just because I find him disagreeable. Probably he meant traitor to UMNO. Then Muhyidin might as well categorised over 1 million UMNO members who did not vote UMNO candidates in the last GE as traitors. He would have to include, those over 3 million Malays, who did not vote UMNO as traitors too. If there were more Malays who did not vote UMNO in the last election, then UMNO is in reality, a minority Malay party.

DPM's Muhyiddin's approach contrasted sharply with the proposed subdued way in which the UMNO candidate, Rohaizat Othman, wishes to carry out. He wants to merendah diri, the DPM wants to thunder. He wants to respect his opponent; the DPM wants to impale the Permatang Pauh giant.

UMNO has about 5300 members in this bahagian. In the last election, its candidate secured a marginally higher number of voters than its members. Its candidate then, Ahmad Sahar Shuib got 5500 votes. That meant only 200 extra votes were secured by its members. UMNO members in this bahagian tidor kah? Since 2008, has the UMNO bahagian worked hard to convert a far bigger number to its cause? The other component parties have negligible membership not capable at all of making any impact on the 5500 non Malay voters.

16 comments:

Anonymous,  16 August 2009 at 13:57  

Dato' Sak,
Money felled from the sky during the Manek Urai by election. A suitcase deemed to contain $ came in the same helicopter as the DPM was seen being carried by a party worker to a car. They can't be the DPM's clothing as he wasn't staying in MU. Despite all that monetary showers, UMNO failed to clinch the seat. Will the same happen in Permatang Pasir?
This one time Wawasan member seemed to shooting his foot all the time He can't even amass the 10,000 crowd in his home state to show support for his declaration of Anwar as a traitor to UMNO (You are right Anwar can't be a traitor to his own race) which Muhyi tried to portray him as. If he is not willing to be humble, he will eat humble pie soon.
Pak Kelantan.

Suci Dalam Debu 16 August 2009 at 15:11  

Sir,

I know what I am going to say is bad. I wish somebody from an UMNO stronghold goes to see his maker and we will have a very interesting BUY-Election.

Only after that, i.e. before the GE13, will our cocky leaders be humbled.

As for DPM, I am sure if DSAI becomes PM, the former Wawasan fler will quickly bend over to kiss whatever that needs kissing.

michael 16 August 2009 at 16:40  

I've got a friend who is voting soon in Permatang Pasir.

He, like many others, is hoping to get an angpow... lucky guy !

Anonymous,  16 August 2009 at 16:43  

World knows the dirty tricks of UMNO, amongst their best is money politics in which they are the king. Where does all the money come from. Shouldn't the smart intelligent and well educated malays tell their people that at the end of the day, they including the malays comprising of buisnessmen, civil servants will have to pay higher taxes to the govt for all the damage done by the UMNO/BN leaders. Look at the amount of money going down the drain from the funding of 'useless' projects to the cronies of UMNO especially the class F conttractors. The roof of schools drop down, the stadium roof collapses, the drains sink, the roads that they develop collapses. Good example is the LPT, lebuhraya pantai timor, which is constantly under repair. Do you know how many malays died on this stretch of road. The road that is equivalent to a kampung road turned into a highway just by adding to extra lanes.
Each time there is a downfall,one will see cars, four wheelers, all other kinds of vehicles hitting into the dividers. Majority of the road users are malays and the death toll rate is high among the malays. Can I say that the Malay UMNO leader is unpatriotic to the nation ?
Afterall, we are all TAXPAYERS, MALAY, CHINESE, INDIANS ETC. So, you tell me is this fair to the country that anything the UMNO leaders do even to the extent of throwing money into the drains is allowed just because they are UMNO. When DAP leaders do things gracefully denying anyone from lavish spending, UMNO will say, see the DAP is anti malay.
Why?why?why? If the leaders of UMNO are so arrogant arent they at least afraid of ALLAH. ALLAH SEES AND KNOWS THE TRUTH. SO BEWARE UMNO AND YOU RACIST MALAY WHO USE EVERY SLIGHTEST CHANCE TO DIVIDE THE COUNTRY. THINK HUMAN, DO HUMANLY DEEDS THAT BENEFIT THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY.

donplaypuks® 16 August 2009 at 17:34  

Perhaps you'd care to explain why these by-elections are not being held on a Sunday to secure maximum voter turnout and therefore a better reflection of the PEOPLES' sentiments.

Polling day in PP, 25th August, falls on a Tuesday which is a normal working day!

Why is the EC consistently having polling day on a week-day? Surely this does not serve democracy or the electoral process well?

dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race

Nik 16 August 2009 at 17:38  

Dato'

It is always the Case...
When a leader fails to achieve his objectives he will find a scapegoat somewhere outside of himself and his group...

In the case of Muhyideen, his current Scapegoat is Anwar....

Continue watching this man and you will find a consistent pattern of scapegoating.

It is unfortunate that the PM is relying heavily on him! Even on H1N1 PM declared that he had to wait for Muhyi to come back from Perth to decide what to do....
Does one seeks the help of a drowning man to stay afloat?

Anonymous,  16 August 2009 at 17:53  

A simple proposal for BN to capture PP

1> Engage in an instant hardcore Party Membership Campaign.Follow the lead of commercial org with Member get Member programs..with instant rewards and jackpots.
2>Set Up a "PP BN Winners Coperative Fund " seeded by BN Malaysia with Rm 20k per registered member
3>Establish n declare programs to disburse Rm 20k to each member on condition BN wins PP

As this is purely at party level it is NOT corruption..just an incentive scheme or a loyalty scheme similar to Bonus Link or Tesco card.

TQ

GreenBug 16 August 2009 at 18:19  

Dato Sak, I think the kingmakers in Permatang Pasir are the Chinese voters and the way MACC has been "performing" after the death of witness Teoh Beng Hock, Permatang Pasir is a foregone conclusion.

Amongst opposition members, many are saying by-elections now are easier to win where there is a 15-25% Chinese voters because of MACC.

Unless they rein in MACC, and MACC is seen to be investigating Khir Toyo and PKFZ fiasco, BN is doomed!

Pentilium5 16 August 2009 at 18:29  

mintak sikit yg dalam james bond bag tu... bagi le, sikit je, nak buat bayar yuran peperiksaan SPM anak ni.... boleh? boleh lah...

Shamsul Yunos 16 August 2009 at 20:45  

donplaypuks

the turnout rate in Manek urai was one of the highest EVER

still PAS suffered a huge slash in majority

if you want to find excuses you can
so go on

zakwan 16 August 2009 at 22:24  

Shamsul Yunus,
any right minded person would doubt the voter turnout at Manik Urai

Did u ever wonder y the voter turnout on a working day is so high even PAS is flabbergasted considering a substantial number of registered voters in Manik Urai r working outstation

Still,judging by Pakatan's track record,PAS can still grab enough votes needed 4 victory
After all,it's Anwar's turf

Anonymous,  16 August 2009 at 23:14  

Dato care to comment about this bn guy in by election is a disbarred lawyer.

Pak Zawi 17 August 2009 at 06:04  

Zakwan,
Agree fully to your opinion on Syamsul Yunus' comment. Dato' Pa who used to be a year my senior in school is such a good man and he tried his best to bring development to Kelantan by the BN's way. Unfortunately BN is in such a mess and the Kelantan people preferred to reject it, well at least for the time being. Things may change if more humble leaders like Dato' Pa emerge and become the PM.

Anonymous,  17 August 2009 at 16:11  

Anon 16 August 2009 16:43

Is it true that the accident rate at LPT is higher then any other roads?That very frightening indeed..especially as I intend to go East Coast this school holidays...

Is it very slippery when it rains?or is it because road is not very even?

Pls enlighten..

Anonymous,  18 August 2009 at 16:39  

There's one anonymous goon telling the UBN politicians how to win PP with his ingenious idea, as if the UBN goons are not good at it. Tell me Mr.Anonymous,whose money is going to be used for this scheme of yours. Isn't it yours and mine and every hard working citizen of this country which we call TAX. In the first place why should UBN be given allowed to win. Are you not in enough 'shit' with 51 years UBN rule.

Anonymous,  18 August 2009 at 19:51  

Anon
I am a regular user of LPT. My advice is please do not speed ESPECIALLY when it's raining. The road surface is uneven on the whole LPT stretch and this visible on a bright sunny day. It's just like taking a boat ride on a choppy river, probably slightly better then the boat ride, I wouldn't want to be too extreme in my explanation. But the fact remains, its dangerous especially on a rainy day or on a wet surface. I have seen nothing less then 5/6 seperate accidents, mostly skidding and hitting the dividers on rainy days.
The other facts are, lately, there are more animals like WILD BOARS coming out due to the jungle clearing. The WILD BOARS are like trapped in between villages facing the old Kuantan/KL road and the opening of whatever jungle is left facing the LPT leaves the animals no choice but to roam by the fringes of the LPT and these animals will cross at the slightest chance available hitting into on coming vehicles. I have lost some good friends due to accidents involving CATTLE at the LPT. The cattle infested areas are TEMERLOH and KARAK, while the WILD BOARS could be anywhere from the GAMBANG exit towards MARAN. In TEMERLOH you will encounter dogs too.
I am advising you and the general public and this writing has nothing to do with politics. Happy motoring.

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