Judgment on Manek Urai

 

I have not commented nor written about Manek Urai. I am impressed by the hard work done by UMNO workers at the battle front. They are trying their best. However as the typical economist likes to put it- hard work is NECESSARY but not a SUFFICIENT factor to ensure victory.

Accordingly, here is my take. I have waited till the 11^th hour so that whatever is written does not have any impact. Suppose 10,000 people come out to vote tomorrow. My prediction is PAS will get as near 6,000 votes while UMNO will get around 4000 votes. This time around PAS will have a majority of at least 2000 or more.

Here is my reasoning for thinking so.

The UMNO candidate may be the best person for this election. He is simply a person caught out in the worse of times. There seems to be general revulsion to UMNO and this observation is at odds with the comforting statement made by Hishamudin Hussein Onn.

Years of abuses and self indulgence have finally caught out UMNO. We are now paying for these indefinable abuses. They remain undefined in the sense that every imaginable complaint and loathing can be ascribed as being caused by UMNO. It's some sort of comeuppance. All these years we have laid claim to legitimacy, now, we must also bear all the ills. Blame all on he who has power.

We all believe our own hype that we are God's gift to Malayland. This has led to an almost supremacist belief that we have an inherent, almost 'divine' right to retain power at all costs. This same observation was recently made by current whipping boy of the month- Zaid Ibrahim. This has led UMNO and its leadership at all levels to adopt this arrogant assumption that only UMNO is the political force capable of offering an agenda for Malaysia and a future to Malays.

The above led UMNO to commit another fatal error. It made UMNO believed it has the monopoly on the leadership of the Malays. That led them to live out a lie that if UMNO is destroyed, then Malay future is gone.

The myth that the future of Malays is indissolubly tied with UMNO was shattered in the 12^th General Elections. Every UMNO claim since independence or at least from as early as UMNO could carry out its ruling powers are now disputed; the New Economic Policy is seen as an excuse to perpetuate the economic exploitation of an elite masquerading as the vanguard of Malay interests; UMNO's claim that through the governmental powers it has helped out the Malays and because of that, the Malays are beholden, is disputed openly.

Once the myth is shattered, the Malays now realized that their destiny lies in their own hands through a struggle of self actualization.

The self induced haughtiness led UMNO to drown in its own deceit which nurtured UMNO's self-indulgent sense of indispensability and self-importance. That sense of self importance encouraged UMNO to steer the nation with a brand of leadership which can only be described as despotism.

Perhaps it is the lurking of this authoritarian ethos which explained the condescension with which UMNO views all its opponents:-

1. Nik Aziz is described as a spiritual leader out of sync with the requirements of a temporal world,
   
2. That UMNO's man has better qualifications than a fish monger and therefore by extension is a better man.
   
3. The people of Manek Urai can be easily be wheedled by bullying and backhanders.
   

What UMNO does to the people of Manek Urai now, is yet a continuation of doing whatever is expedient to achieve its only agenda- self-preservation!

This by election is between a former employee of a federal GLC and an entrepreneur. To be exact, the latter is dismissively termed as a wholesale fishmonger. Ahmad Maslan calls him a peraih ikan- suggesting a negative ring to it. That earned him the wrath of the other fishmongers in Manek Urai. You can bet, UMNO will not be getting votes from this group.

The people of Kelantan and Manek Urai are fiercely entrepreneurial by nature. They have this independent streak in them. From a personal preference standpoint alone, that would place the PAS candidate in consonance with the prevailing psychology.

The biggest mistake is asking the people of Manek Urai to sacrifice Nik Aziz. I asked an UMNO leader in Kelantan who is feverishly working in this by election, what is the final weapon that you can use? You can't bribe the Kelantanese with promises of development. The RM7 million bridge, mosques here and there. Kelantan has yearly revenue of what? 400-500 million a year? After spending on operating expenditure, what amount do you have left to do CAPEX and development?

This is where the federal government plays a role to assist a state which is part of Malaysia. The BN government could have used this role in some smart ways to gain support. If it has not gained support, then you can only conclude that the federal agencies operating in Kelantan have been toeing the officious line. Not good for earning support. Being part of government machinery that is seen as largely discriminatory, actually becomes a disadvantage for Tuan Aziz, our candidate.

You can no longer make threats. You cannot justifiably berate your opponent because he has a different means of making a living. Doing business can easily be claimed as following the Prophet's footsteps. Nabi Muhammad was a businessman before he was made prophet.

So what do you do?

We will tell the people of Manek Urai this. Please give face to PM Najib. Give him a first win so that he, our Malay brother, can stand as tall and sit as equals.

So I asked- you mean, in other words you are going to say, give face to DS Najib by dropping the water face of Nk Aziz? That's Hobson's choice for you.